My post "State of Major League Soccer" post Part 2 - TV & TV ratings
by denz on Nov 11, 2011 3:42 PM MST
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So in Part 1 of my post "State of the League"posts I offered up my thoughts on the unbalanced schedule, I am clearly not a fan, but now I would like to take a look at an area that has become something I am very excited about. While I do not like the approach of featuring mainly big market team (New York, LA, Seattle) on the national TV networks, I think the numbers this year have to be considered as well.
So the new TV deal with NBC/NBC Sports Net (currently Versus) is coming next year and Don took time to thank the folks at Fox Soccer for all they have done for the sport (FYI to Fox Soccer- you really should cover US Open Cup next year). I have a jaded opinion of Fox Soccer in part due to the fact that Comcast just added them in HD in my market last month so without the HD version it has been painful to watch for the last couple years. I also know that as long as Fox Soccer remained in the sports tier that they would never have the reach that the league needed to help it grow.
Good news is that viewership of MLS was up this year:
ESPN and ESPN2 MLS regular season final avg. total viewers (311) are up 16% than 2010 MLS regular season final avg. total viewers (268)
Fox SoccerMLS regular season final avg. total viewers (70) are up 26% than 2010 MLS regular season final avg. total viewers (56)
TelefuturaMLS regular season final avg. total viewers (233) are up 10% than 2010 MLS regular season final avg. total viewers (211)Nielsen
It is also good to note that both ESPN and Fox Soccer saw big growth in the key 18-34 male demographic a key indicator for advertising and sponsors.
more thoughts after the jump:
When we look closer at those numbers some interesting things appear, first ESPN/2 were given the more "premier/big market" matches so I would expect their numbers to be better, ESPN also has a 3 times larger install base so their numbers by default should be at least 3x larger.
I really have mixed feelings about ESPN/2 featuring almost exclusively matches with the New York Red Bulls, Los Angeles Galaxy, and Seattle Sounders. While this year those large markets clearly played a role in the ratings going up, they also help improve their brand, sell more merchandise, and attract more sponsors and bigger sponsor deals, which will put other teams at a disadvantage. There is a rare balance that MLS must obtain with it's TV partners, in most leagues there are lucrative local TV contracts that compliment a national deal, but this isn't always the case in MLS.
When you look at the TV numbers I mentioned above, consider this:
ESPN/2 is in 100 million households in the US, that means that just under 1/3 of 1 percent of the potential viewers watched MLS on their network.
Fox Soccer is in 32 million households in the US, just under 1/4 of 1 percent of the potential viewers watched MLS on their network.
If those numbers hold true then MLS will should see an average of 150K or better watching matches on NBC Sports Net if nothing changes as the network reaches 75 million households. That means that advertisers and sponsors will see a 50% increase in the number of people who will see their MLS ads over Fox Soccer, and that is a very good thing. Now that number is important for the future of MLS, remember that NBC Sports Net also covers the NHL, who have a much larger deal than does MLS.
The NHL saw a nice increase in their TV ratings last year to an average of 353,000 viewers, the NHL gets over $70 million dollars a year from their TV deal with NBC/NBC Sports Net. Folks that is the kind of money that could change MLS in a very good way. I think NBC with their Olympic coverage this summer could really build some great numbers for MLS if the US qualify and do well at the 2012 games. Unlike ESPN I can see NBC doing a much better job of trying to connect the nationalism that brings such huge number on TV to the local product, in this case MLS.
The future of MLS is in TV revenues (which I consider to include both TV and online video streaming), it is what will allow larger stadium, a higher salary cap, and many of the things that the league will need to meet the stated goal of being one of the top leagues in the world by 2022. I believe we are heading in the right direction, the fact that NBC/NBC Sports Net has said they will but at least two matches on their main NBC network and while I have to believe that those will likely either be MLS Cup and the MLS All Star match, or one of those and a New York Red Bulls vs. Los Angeles Galaxy match. I believe that they will push ESPN/2 to a higher level as well, by showing 38 regular season matches on NBC Sports Net, I have to believe that ESPN/2 will up their number from 21 to a higher number as well. All of this points to positive territory for MLS.
OFF MY SOAPBOX
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fox vs espn
historically it seemed as though the mls didn’t get that much airtime on espn as any effort to generate interest in the sport would disproportionately benefit fox. that is to say that because fox had such a vested proprietary interest in mls, if espn generated any hype about the sport, its viewers would then have to tune into fsc to get their fix.
my understanding is that the new package would make fox less of a competitor with espn thus allowing espn to throw more resources into promoting the league.
…at least that’s the only way i could rationalize why espn (at least historically) has failed to really throw promote the league. don’t you think it’s weird that espn rarely shows highlights of the mls—even in the summer when professional sports is the slowest.
It is easy
there is a limited upside for them, they have seen that the numbers from the World Cup and even USMNT don’t directly translate to MLS, so they have in the past paid it little attention beyond using it as a cheap fill of airtime. For what other programming costs MLS is probably some of the cheapest available, and they have seen over time that it typically only will bring a small percentage of viewers.
I think the competition with NBC Sports Net will push them, I also think their losing the 2018 and 2022 World Cups could cause them to lose interest, this week SBJ (Sports Business Journal) had a conference on sports and social media, and soccer was voted as the most likely sport to break out the next couple of years, so I am hoping that ESPN will jump on board in a big way.
Regarding NBC...
I know it’s apples to oranges and all, but I hope they do a better job with their soccer coverage than they do their gymnastics coverage. It’s pretty much notoriously awful.
That being said, I really like their Universal Sports channel. NBC Universal implemented a lot of key new media content with that channel (live and archived streaming, video interviews, dedicated sport Twitter feeds, etc.), and I hope they bring a lot of what they learned with Universal Sports into their MLS coverage.
I think you have to look
At what Versus (soon to be NBC Sports Net) has done with the NHL coverage, the improvements over ESPN were limited at first but now I consider their coverage to be head and shoulders above what was being offered by ESPN. I can only hope that their learning with hockey will pass to MLS as well.
I think the commitment to show almost twice as many matches as ESPN did this year is a big step towards the level of commitment they are willing to offer. I am holding out hope that their reorganization of their sports networks will lead to better things across all sports and properties.
Couple things
ESPN/2 featuring almost exclusively matches with the New York Red Bulls, Los Angeles Galaxy, and Seattle Sounders.
I corrected you in your pre-season post on this, but you seem to have forgotten. Chicago was featured on ESPN/2 just as many times (4) as Seattle this season. So either you need to add Chicago to the hate list, or remove Seattle. I realize that it blunts your point some, but citing incomplete data simply invalidates it.
NBC/NBC Sports Net has said they will but[sic] at least two matches on their main NBC network and while I have to believe that those will likely either be MLS Cup and the MLS All Star match, or one of those and a New York Red Bulls vs. Los Angeles Galaxy match
I’m pretty sure ABC/ESPN have rights to both the All-Star game and MLS Cup. As I understand it, NBC bought what amounts to “secondary rights” which includes regular season games after ABC/ESPN have cherry picked the best ones, and some playoff games. I’m also pretty sure that ABC/ESPN has exclusive rights to any NY-LA matchup whenever it occurs. The most recent playoff match ups are case in point. The second leg in LA was originally scheduled for Fox, but once we knew that NY was going to be playing in it, ESPN televised it instead.
And finally, in response to the comments above, I also think it’s great for ESPN to have to “raise their game” with NBC on board now. As I hinted above, ESPN and ABC are the same company (Disney). ABC used to televise MLS Cup nationally (as recently as 2008 IIRC). If NBC intends to put a few (denz says 2, not sure if that’s a guess or if it was stated in the call) on their major network, then I think it’s reasonable to hope that ABC will do the same. Imagine 4 league/playoff matches being broadcast over the terestrial airwaves (and not just cable and the internet) next season. Now that would be huge.
not quite
OK Chicago, Chicago, Chicago. It amazes me how you simply get so defensive, as I stated when the schedule came out, the reality is that of the matches covered by ESPN/2 the majority of them featured 3 teams, a larger majority if you want me to include Chicago. The point is valid with 3 teams or valid with 4, the statement is that ESPN/2 featured as part of their 21 regular season matches a majority that involved 3 teams. That statement is true, just like if I said that a majority featured 4 teams. While you may take issue with it, it remains fact either way it is stated.
The number of NBC broadcast matches was noted in the initial press release by MLS and NBC, I know that their package includes 3 playoff matches but without knowing the format it is hard to tell what matches i might be. With new contracts where the majority of information never is released it is hard to know what is covered and what isn’t the rights that ESPN/2 might have had could have easily been changed as a result of the new deal? We will find out. I know part of the NBC deal will include some USMNT matches as well, I don’t remember seeing an exact number of those mentioned.
Over the air broadcasts will be the next step and I think the example Fox has set showing even replays of matches on their over the air network this year opens a door for each of the broadcast partners to explore how much they really want to promote MLS.
Hmm
I think I get what you’re saying but there’s still something being glossed over in your explanation. Your point revolves around any set of 3 teams featured in the majority of the ESPN/2 games. So you could have made an equally “valid” point using LA, NY, and Chicago in your hate list instead of LA, NY, and Seattle. Which begs the question, why include Seattle over Chicago? The numbers/percentages/majority are equivalent for your point either way. Some confused reader might think you have something against Seattle and not against Chicago. So please share why Seattle’s in the hate list and Chicago’s not, since, by your own admission, the point was regarding the “majority of games” and not the actual teams in the hate list. Was it just a coin flip? Reverse alphabetical sorting maybe?
Moving on, I don’t think its reasonable to assume that NBC’s contract somehow rewrote ESPN/ABC’s. I think they’ll continue to have MLS Cup and the All Star game until their contract is renewed. As I said, I’m pretty sure their contract entitles them to these specific games and first pick of the rest while NBC is simply replacing Fox’s secondary programming partner role. To be clear, this is in no way me trying to take a crap on NBC (or Fox’s previous) role as a partner. I’m just saying that I believe ESPN/ABC’s entitles them to more. As you say, NBC will get 3 playoff matches and some USMNT games. Fox had exactly the same thing in 2011.
There were no MLS games broadcast over the air between 2009 and 2011. I’m not sure what you’re referring to with replays. I know they showed some EPL and UEFA Champoins League replays over the air. but that’s mainly orthogonal to this topic and I don’t think that’s what you were referring to (but I honestly don’t know what you were referring to). If we indeed get live matchs (plural!) broadcast over the air in 2012 again (I believe the last was MLS Cup 2008) then MLS will have taken a huge step forward. If ESPN/ABC follows suite, I’d say we will have entered a new era in the history of MLS (MLS 4.0?).
EPL replays
Is what I was talking about. My point about Seattle being listed vs. Chicago has more to do with overall attitude of MLS and to be honest ESPN/2 towards Seattle, you see Seattle (right or wrong-that is for another day) promoted more than Chicago, and treated more like New York and LA than other teams. I understand why, hell 35K plus a game actually deserves more attention than New York or LA to be honest.
It worked this year with TV ratings, not huge numbers but improvements. Given the way Nielsen gathers data when we are talking such small numbers it could be that a couple of households that came into their measurement pool are soccer fans. So for me it will take a bit more data and time to see marked improvement, but I am hopeful that it will continue moving in the right direction.
TV rights hold a huge role in the future of the league. I don’t know about who has what matches, clearly the NBC deal only mentioned 3 playoff matches, but no mention of which ones. I have to believe that if the ratings are good for the NBC group that it will put pressure on ESPN knowing that they only have a couple years left on their deal with MLS and they just lost the World Cup. If the 7 million a year numbers are right for ESPN when you consider that got them a total of 25 matches, it is fairly inexpensive programming. Lots of interesting things are likely to happen over the next two seasons for sure.
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