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Pre-Season Reality Check for Real Salt Lake

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So without any action on the pitch it is easy to get caught up in either despair or hype about Real Salt Lake, with so many off season losses, 9 players no longer with the team and 8 new names picked up (1 HGP , 6 draft picks, 1 trade).

Now I am never going to claim that we can put the expectations of the players no longer with the team immediately onto the incoming rookies, heck I wouldn't do that with veteran players either. Real Salt Lake plays a rather unique system in MLS where all the players have defensive responsibilities and all of the midfielders are asked to do a combination of both defensive and offensive play making. We have seen that it takes a good part of a year for most experienced players to get up to get on the same "sheet of music" as the rest of the team, and in the past RSL has allowed younger players a couple seasons to catch up.

That isn't going to be the case this year, it was a very fortunate thing that RSL was able to get a player that a lot of experts considered the college player most ready for MLS, and a player who's style matches how RSL plays. I do think that Enzo Martinez is probably going to see more minutes this year than any rookie player has in a long time for RSL, and both of our second round picks could be pleasant surprises but that has yet to be seen. RSL will invite a number of players to camp with them beyond our recent draft picks, we should have a final number and names early next week as the team reports to Salt Lake City for the start of the preseason.

after the jump I take a closer look at who has left RSL and those who will be fighting for those spots:

Star-divide

I know that is hard to compare players that we know with draft picks or home grown players that we generally don't know much about but you can see how some of the open slots might be filled:

Out

In

G Tim Melia (11/23: waived)

GK Lalo Fernandez

M Collen Warner (11/23: expansion draft)

M Sebastián Velásquez

D Robbie Russell (11/29: trade to D.C.)

D Diogo de Almeida

M Jean Alexandre (12/1: trade to San Jose)

F Oliver Kupe

M Arturo Alvarez (12/5: Re-Entry Stage 1/Chivas USA)

F Emiliano Bonfigli

M Andy Williams (12/5: retired)

M Enzo Martinez

D Nelson González (12/12: option declined)

M Benjamín Ubierna

D Rauwshan McKenzie (12/12: option declined)

D Leone Cruz

M Blake Wagner (12/12: option declined)

So on a position by position basis you can see that we still have some gaps, and depth in the midfield and experience on defense are still what I see as the areas that still probably need to be addressed. I am confident in what RSL has been able to do in the past and I am always amazed how people quickly forget that.

The biggest holes will be the guys who played over 1,000 minutes for RSL, Robbie Russell on defense and Collen Warner and Andy Williams in the midfield. So first we know that Collen and Andy saw more minute last year in part due to the injury to Javier Morales. I am hopeful that Javi will be back to 100% this year, we also know that we saw huge development from Luis Gil in the midfield and I expect that he will see his minutes increase from 1,288 last year to closer to 2,000 this year. Perhaps the biggest question mark for me is the status of Yordany Alvarez, he was able to contribute 419 minutes last year, and if we are able to get his loan extended or a permanent move done, I would expect his minutes to increase in a big way as well.

I do think that the trade for Leone Cruz will prove to be a smart move, he is a know quantity to the RSL staff who saw him during a couple of reserve matches he played for RSL last year. I actually had him as the player I hoped RSL would select in last year's draft.

It is really important for people to also understand the roster structure of MLS, each team is allowed up to 30 players, there is the senior roster which is up to 20 players (at least 18) which count against the salary cap. Then there is the "off-budget" roster which can include up to 10 additional players. I expect that we will likely leave two of the "off-budget" slots open and get a $70K allocation allowance for doing so.

I expect that the following players will be on the RSL senior roster this year: Nick Rimando, Kyle Reynish, Chris Wingert, Jamison Olave, Nat Borchers, Tony Beltran, Chris Schuler, Ned Grabavoy, Kyle Beckerman, Javier Morales, Will Johnson, Fabian Espindola, Alvaro Saborio, Chris Agorsor and Cody Arnoux. That is 15 players, when/if we complete the deals for Paulo Jr. and Yordany Alvarez, I expect both would be added to that list. This means that RSL will need to add at least one more player to their Senior roster, depending on the deal offered to either Sebastian or Diogo, they could easily be in one of those spots (if not both of them).

The Off-Budget roster includes HGP's and GA's, so it will include: Luis Gil (GA), Enzo Martinez (GA) , Donny Toia (HG), Nico Muniz (HG), Lalo Fernandez (HG), and likely any of the players selected in the supplemental draft.

One concern for RSL is international spots, while most teams have 8 slots available, RSL has just 6 due to some trades completed by the Ellinger/ Pastorino era. Several of our draft picks would currently count as international players (some are already in the process of getting their green cards, as our a couple of current players). Currently RSL has: Alvaro Saborio, Javier Morales, and Fabian Espindola in international spots, and if Paulo Jr.'s deal is complete he would require one of those spots as well. I don't believe that this will be an issue for RSL as I expect at least a couple players to be getting their green cards before the roster deadline date.

Now all of this can change in a minute, an injury, a free agent signing, a trade, and countless other things can and most likely will impact the RSL roster before the season starts, but as I said before I have trust in the RSL staff who have delivered results each of the last 4 seasons. RSL has been in 3 Conference finals the last 4 years, they were the first MLS team to play for the Champions League title and I expect that this year will see the team once again fighting as one of the top teams in MLS.

OFF MY SOAPBOX

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Good read

The upcoming year should probably be looked at as a “rebuilding” year type year. I expect the team to sneak into the playoffs when the team finally gels at the end of the year.

Though with the leadership of previous players should help the team. At least we aren’t rolling out an all rookie midfield or anything like that.

by king.nothing on Jan 20, 2012 8:08 PM MST reply actions  

rebuilding?

While we lost 9 players, only 2 of them made long term contributions last season (williams, russell). Now I’m assuming we stay mostly healthy, which may or may not be true, but with Morales back, and Gil probably getting more minutes, the only position that I see that needs more coverage is fullback. Russell will be hard to replace, but I’d say that Wingert and Beltran are equally capable starters, we just need some depth there now.

I don’t see how we could look it as a rebuilding year any more than last year. With Javier going down, our midfield lineup was constantly changing. Not to mention Grabavoy missed his fair share of time as well. I largely expect to see the same team are used to seeing, minus Russell. Our midfield appears to be deeper than last year if our draft picks can be at least as productive as Warner was, and if we can secure Yordany again.

F: Espindola, Saborio, Paulo Jr, Arnoux, Agorsor
MF: Morales, Beckerman, Johnson, Grabavoy, Gil, Alvarez, Martinez, Velasquez
D: Beltran, Wingert, Olave, Borchers, Schuler + New guys

I don’t know how anybody can think we’ll be worse than last year unless we hit with more injuries.

by vexic on Jan 23, 2012 10:14 AM MST up reply actions  

I think rebuilding is somewhat correct

So it may not seem like rebuilding but it is if you think beyond your starting 11,while it seems natural that Andy and Robbie would be the most missed, the reality is that if you look at the numbers of the other players lost you will see that the impact actually is much more than 2 deep. Collen Warner played over 1,000 minutes in 24 matches and was 2nd on the team with 5 assists. Jean Alexandre played in 19 matches and had 2 goals and 1 assist, Arturo played in 16 matches and had an assist. So there are 3 players who played in about half of our matches that will be gone in 2012.

The uncertainty of Paulo Jr. and Yordany Alvarez (I believe we will sign both) could really hit us hard, Paulo only played in 11 matches due to injury issues but he had 2 goals and 4 assists in under 800 minutes of action, while Yordany provided solid defense when we were without Kyle Beckerman at the end of the season.

So the question is depth, which will be huge for RSL once again as we deal with US Open Cup and Champions League. in 2011 we had 18 players with more than 500 minutes in MLS action, and 27 players who saw 1st team action in MLS play. Only 1 of the 9 players lost didn’t have first minute time, that was 3rd keeper Tim Melia, so the question is will we find 5 players who can add minutes via the draft or other sources? That is the question for me, because the reality is that we lost over 6,500 minutes of MLS action with the 9 who are no longer with the team, and while some guys will be able to get more minutes there still are some empty boots that will need to be filled.

by denz on Jan 23, 2012 10:43 AM MST up reply actions  

I know we've had our differences

and this is another area where I’m going to disagree denz. Most of the players were either a step slow or JAGs (just another guy). Alexander is a step above average but not elite. Warner took a huge step back last year and some of our most bitter losses last year turned on plays involving our old guys that we have lost. Example on the Champion’s League final played in Sandy, Russell (who I love) didn’t rotate right and then wasn’t fast enough to make up the space on the goal because he left a huge gap. Now I personally from my perfect viewpoint (i’m right off the corner flag on the east side) don’t think it should have ever been allowed because the player that got the ball that he sent for the assist was offside by a good yard and a half.
I don’t really want to get too much into Andy (trying to be respectful) but I think Gil is more than capable of replacing Andy’s stats at least (1 assist and 2 goals in 31 games of more or less 63 minutes per game in 31 games and only 34% of the total shots being on goal). I know I’m not his biggest fan by any means but I think a lot of his production is overstated because everyone’s feelings about Andy the person. From a quick google search I found that Gil scored 2 goals with 75% of his shots on goal and that is only with a 51 minutes per game average in 25 games.
The goals and assists we lost will be replaced and probably bettered because we should have some fresh young legs with a lot to prove.

by Plinkostar on Jan 23, 2012 6:01 PM MST up reply actions  

I could say that of anyone on the roster last year

While I think the team will be just fine, replacing 6,500 plus minutes isn’t easy and isn’t something just 1or 2 players is going to be able to do. It will take at least 4 players to replace the lost minutes of last season.

There were plenty of matches where everyone had off days, I mean there isn’t a person on the roster who you couldn’t find room for improvement. You have to remember that guys like Warner were asked to fill a very different role in 2011 than they were in 2010, in part due to the injury to Javi, but also as other things were needed.

Will we find new players to fill spots? Yes, will other players need to step up to fill spots? Yes, I have complete confidence in the RSL staff to do what is needed to deal with the losses and find a way to make the team better. Doing so while keeping within the salary cap isn’t going to be easy, but I always will keep faith in the RSL team on and off the pitch to do what is needed to move forward.

by denz on Jan 24, 2012 11:22 AM MST up reply actions  

point taken

I can understand that viewpoint, but I am not as concerned as other about that. Out of 6500 minutes that you cited, about 5000 of them came from 3 players (russell, warner, williams). Now all of my confidence comes with a big if: staying healthy, i.e. no long term injuries. But, if that is the case, then our midfield minutes will be offset by Morales getting the minutes he was supposed to, and Gil getting an increased role. The minutes that Russell put in will be hard to replace, so any positive production from our new pickups in that area of the field will be a good boost. As for the random minutes that Jean, Arturo and some of the other bench players, I can’t imagine that we can’t get the same production out of the players that we have picked up. (I love Jean and his game, but on the other hand I absolutely can’t stand Alvarez, so there’s almost 800 minutes there that I think are easily replaced).

Maybe I’m too optimistic about our new players, or about the increased roles for some of our current players, but depth-wise, I think we are at least at a wash.

If for some reason we lose Paulo and/or Yordany, then I would start to worry. I believe striker and holding mid were the hardest positions for us to cover last year when we lost our starters.

by vexic on Jan 23, 2012 11:21 AM MST reply actions  

Great points all around...

with you guys going back an fourth i though of a few things. First the viewpoints are great and i think you guys are both saying the pretty close to same thing. And that is IF we have an injury riddled, emotional draining season we could be worried because we may not have the expierience or depth to keep us afloat. Second… i agree with both perspectives. We have a starting 11 but if someone needs a rest or injury or national teams or whatever else could happen we could be in trouble. Assuming we sign paulo and alvarez we have 3 solid forwards i would feel comfortable with starting. maybe 4 with Gil going up top if needed. Midfielders we have morales, johnson, beckerman, grabavoy, gil and alvarez. I feel its ok. But defence is the worries for me. wingert, borchers, olave, schuler, beltran. but schuler is not as strong on the wing and i dont know if the newbies are ready. johnson has done ok back there but we need 1 more contributing player(at least as much as warner did last season) in the following areas. forward, outside mid, outside back. We are not as deep unless these new guys can step up and be servicable. I feel we need to sign one more expierienced mid and outside back. A mid level guy around $80,000. Not a starter but could if needed and that second team guy who knows how to finish a game out.
Thats my opinion and your thoughts are always welcome guys.
Shorty B

by ShortyB on Jan 24, 2012 2:57 PM MST reply actions  

injuries

I’ll admit, if we have one of our starters go down with a long term injury in midfield, without Andy Williams, we will lack experience. We will have to rely on somebody like Martinez. I don’t follow college soccer, so I don’t know much about him, but have read good things.

Last year we had to rely on young players, and they (Warner, Gil) worked out pretty well. If the RSL staff were “giddy” about some of the guys we picked up, then I’ll take that as a good sign.

Defensively, injuries do make me nervous. Last year we were without Beltran for a stretch, and with only 2 (older) fullbacks, that hurt us. If one of our young guys don’t step up and prove to be good enough for that 3rd spot, then that could be bad. I think Schuler needs his minutes in the middle when Olave needs time off, which I’m assuming he will need a bunch.

by vexic on Jan 25, 2012 9:07 AM MST reply actions  

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