For Real Salt Lake 2012 will be a season of changes
by denz on Jan 3, 2012 12:57 PM MST
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While the last couple weeks I have focused on the changes that will hit MLS in 2012, it is now 2012 and it is time to look at the changes that will impact Real Salt Lake this year.
It was a chilly November evening at Rio Tinto Stadium when the following 18 players made up the team fighting for the 2008 Western Conference Final: Nick Rimando, Robbie Russell, Jamison Olave, Nat Borchers, Chris Wingert, Dema Kovalenko, Kyle Beckerman, Will Johnson, Javier Morales, Clint Mathis, Yura Movsisyan with Kyle Reynish, Tony Beltran, Kenny Deuchar, Fabian Espindola, Robbie Findley, Ian Joy, and Andy Williams on the bench.
You can fast forward to November 2011 when 12 of those same players (Nick Rimando, Robbie Russell, Jamison Olave, Nat Borchers, Chris Wingert, Kyle Beckerman, Will Johnson, Javier Morales, Kyle Reynish, Tony Beltran, Fabian Espindola, and Andy Williams), and 9 of them played in the match (Rimando, Russell, Olave, Wingert, Beckerman, Morales, Espindola, Williams, and Beltran) would battle in the Western Conference Final again.
I don't believe you will find a single team in MLS with that much consistency on their roster over 3 years. Teams with high success or high failure rates often see their rosters turn over quickly, but for RSL the deliberate attempts to "keep the band together" haven't gone un-noticed and now those attempts are meeting the league's salary cap and it will cause some changes for RSL in 2012.
more after the jump:
So what changes will hit RSL in 2012? First up are the trades, Robbie Russell to DC United and Jean Alexandre to San Jose, RSL gets in return some supplemental draft picks which they are likely to use to try and find some young talent that they can develop over the next couple years. Then are the players lost in the drafts, first was Collen Warner who was taken by Montreal in the Expansion Draft, then Arturo Alvarez was taken in the re-entry draft. Then you have the players who's options weren't picked up or were waived: Nelson Gonzalez, Blake Wagner, Tim Melia, and Rauwshan McKenzie. Finally, the unexpected retirement of RSL original Andy Williams, which will probably be the change most noticed by fans.
These changes will result in RSL losing over 6,700 minutes of first team playing time, 4 goals and 12 assists. Folks that isn't going to be easy to replace, and with the limitations of the salary cap, you can expect that RSL will be looking for younger players and/or players who can be added without major hits to the salary cap.
So where will RSL find these new players? Well we know that there have been trips to South America, Germany, and the Far East by the RSL staff, we know that the team had a combine for potential players in Arizona last month where 30 players showed their stuff to the RSL training staff. We have had RSL scouts at the NCAA Tournament and on Friday MLS will kick off their Combine with 60 prospective players, as they try to get attention of teams who are getting ready for next week's MLS Draft.
Real Salt Lake will have 3 picks in the first two rounds of the draft on Thursday, Jan 12th - the 17th, 24th, and 36th. The MLS draft will only feature two rounds this year, with the other rounds moving to the "Supplemental" draft which will take place the following week.
Let's be clear about a couple of things, first RSL will need to finalize details in making Yordany Alvarez's loan a permanent move. He showed all the potential to be a long term piece of the RSL midfield, and in a year when we could be losing players like Will Johnson, Kyle Beckerman, and Luis Gil for World Cup Qualifying, the Olympics, and other national team call ups, and with Javier Morales still needing to fully recover from the ankle injury last year, I think it could be Yordany who could be a real difference maker for RSL in 2012.
Second, we still need more midfield help, I am happy we were able to get a new deal done with Ned Grabavoy, but the loss of Collen Warner, Andy Williams, and Arturo Alvarez leaves us with 3 fewer offensive options in our midfield. I have to believe that with all the overseas tours, that RSL will be looking to add some offensive flair during the January transfer window that is now open. I think the numbers for our midfield will likely come from the MLS draft, but the RSL philosophy of not putting too much pressure on young players too quickly will mean that I expect at least one experienced midfielder to be picked up before RSL heads to their preseason camp. Collen Warner was the #16 pick in the 2010 MLS Draft.
I am not sure why, but I have a strong feeling that RSL will also be looking overseas or around MLS for a defender, in the past they have shown a preference for experienced defenders but perhaps the quick success of Chris Schuler has changed their mind a bit on this topic. One should remember that Chris Schuler was the #39 pick in the 2010 MLS Draft.
I don't suspect that RSL will trade draft picks for allocation dollars like they did last year, it is clear that for RSL the next 24 months are huge as they make another run at the Champions League, but they are a team that needs to get younger at a number of positions and 24 months is just about the normal amount of time that RSL likes to have their young players continue developing before putting pressure on them to perform.
I am going to be honest, I am not sure how an aging RSL will do in 2012, my hopes are high that Alvaro Saborio will recover quickly and be ready for MLS action by April, that Jamison Olave will be able to go the full season without injury. My biggest question is can Javier Morales find the form that he had at the start of the 2011 season? I know what the doctors have said, but one only has to look at the fact that RSL had 1 win after he returned last year. Now I know there are multiple reasons why the team struggled, but when you get your star player back and you win just 1 match in your final 9 including the playoffs, well that makes me worry.
It is clear that after 3 full seasons of little change and a lot of success, that 2012 will be a very different kind of season. I have a lot of hope, it comes from having some great young players who I think will be more important than ever for RSL, guys like Luis Gil (who mlssoccer.com picked as the breakout player for 2012), Cody Arnoux and Chris Agorsor who could both provide us with depth at forward, Chris Schuler and Tony Beltran who are the future of our back line.
Yet, I have a hard time thinking that without the deep pockets of the LA Galaxy, Seattle Sounders, and other teams in the league, that RSL won't struggle to keep up over the course of a very long season. The new schedule format won't do RSL any favors as they now will face teams from the West(which still appears to be the stronger Conference) an additional time, but it is clear that RSL has a mission in mind and that mission is to win the Champions League.
Having come so close RSL now knows that the rewards, prize money, national attention, sponsors, allocation money, and more are worth the risk, so they have done what they could to secure the roster that they will go forward with as they make another run towards qualifying for the Club World Cup.
One thing is sure, it will be a season of changes for RSL, more new faces than we have seen in the last several years, as the team continues their progress towards building a franchise that continually competes for championships, it may require that someone reaches deep into their pockets.
So what are your thoughts about the 2012 season?
OFF MY SOAPBOX
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Cheap Ownership
1) My sources tell me Ardony Alvarez will not be signed. His transfer fee is too much.
I have the feeling that the commitment of this ownership group to field a competitive team is very limited. I don’t think it started this way, but I think now they are using “The team is the star” as an excuse to go cheap and not spend money to restock this team to keep up with Seattle and L.A. I’m not talking about having to spend 5 million on a player, but what about how Portland is doing it, going to get some young DH players that don’t count much against the cap. And they have to have cap space. They got rid of Alvaro’s 200k+ salary plus Andy’s, Collens and the other players. We’ll see if they make moves during the offseason, but I think that ownership group has bigger fish to fry (buying the Oakland Raiders, forming parntership with Cowboys/Yankees on Sports promotion).
Cheap?
Remember that our owner isn’t anywhere near the wealth of AEG, the Hunts, Krafts, or even Roth and company. If you think RSL is cheap you have to remember they spent their money keeping our core of players together.
In 2008 Will Johnson cost RSL under 53K, that same player was 225K last year, Javier Morales was 240K in 2008, but 452K last year, RSL has spent their money keeping a core of players together that have made it to 3 Conference Finals in the last 4 years, they have done their best to pay the players who have produced for them, I don’t consider that cheap.
What you don’t see is what raises are part of a players option years, you don’t see a player that cost 50K last year but would cost 300K to keep them for 2012. I am sorry, while I think RSL ownership might be forced to spend some extra money in the future, they are far from cheap. They do run on a budget, which includes trying to pay off a $100 million dollar stadium, one of two residential academies in Major League Soccer, and countless other things most of us never think about.
Yordany’s former club Orlando City is asking for a rather big chunk of money for his rights, RSL is negotiating with them and MLS (which usually doesn’t pay any transfer fees) to try and make a deal happen. When is the last time a USL division 2 team asked for a transfer fee for one of their players to MLS? I don’t believe it has ever happened, so yes I think RSL is trying to sign him but they clearly think paying as much as Orlando City is asking is something they have to really consider.
So to restock who would you get rid of? Would you trade a Will Johnson in order to get some cap room and maybe some allocation money? who would you get to replace him? Do you trade Kyle Beckerman, you talk about restocking this team, without paying any attention to how it was built in the first place. We found players who were overseas and wanted to come back, we found players who other teams wanted to clear off their salary, we found some players via trades during the transition from Ellinger to Kreis. But from the team that took us to the 2008 Western Conference Final, when 12 of 18 are still on your roster 3 years later in a Conference final, it is because the team has committed to that core of players and that costs money, not for one second do I think it was done on the cheap.
You only have to look at Jamison Olave who came into MLS at $80,000 a year in 2008 but now is paid over double that to know that RSL hasn’t chosen to restock, they have chosen to reward the players who have performed for them and kept them at one of the highest levels in MLS over the last 4 years.
Cheap so far
I clearly stated that the change in attitude as far as spending on the team was a recent phenomenon, not something that has been occurring over the last 3 years. I hope I am proved wrong. We will see what signing occur over these next three months. If RSL does not reload with some significant talent they are going to be hard pressed to maintain the success they have had over the last few years. They shed approximately $660,000 in salaries over the last three months, so even with any increases for existing players there is money to spend if they want. My feeling is that Checketts interests have turned to other things besides RSL. He is now a minority owner and are there any indications that the new owner (who does have some deep pockets) is going to step up and do what needs to be done to maintain RSL as one of the 2-3 elite teams in the league or are they willing to just be competitive enough to keep the seats relatively full? We will get a sense of this with their personnel decisions this offseason.
But all of it is guess work anyways from anyone one the outside because of the opaque salary cap/allocation rules which make trying to get informed information almost impossible on what the true cap situation is for a team. So, unlike in other sports, you just have to take ownerships word that they are doing everything they can, which is probably the way MLS wants it.
Recent development
Still I am going to disagree. You don’t know what some of the terms of the option years are, I do know some from off the record conversations, as well as some of the other numbers that are parts of conversations. While RSL shed some, you also have to remember that there is no allocation money from Champions League, a big part of the 2011 budget. Each player under contract got between a 5-15% raise as well, while the cap only went up 5%.
Dave is still a majority owner of the team, he is still very involved in the team and our coaches have been on 4 continents looking for players to fill our open spots.
Again, you have to remember there is a lot going on that you and I don’t know about, but the bits and pieces I know don’t reflect what you are thinking. Ask the players who will tell you that they consider Dave the top owner in the league.
I would agree with Timoteo if it was March/April
I think it is far too early to be calling our team cheap and one needs to exercise much patience in that regard. I think a blessing and a curse of our team is that much patience is required to see if young talent will pan out (Nelson Gonzalez or Chris Schuler) along with being tactful about finding impact players (Sabo). That being said it’s amazing how quickly Kries has been able to make a strong core of players. So here is to hoping that we’ll find some gems out there.
Nelson won't be back
RSL will not be picking up the option on Nelson, to do so was simply something that they could not justify the financial (believe me it was way higher than you thought) burden would be.
RSL does usually believe that it is about 2 years before they expect young players to play a real role, we got early results from Gil, Schuler, and Warner.
So with the $660 that was shed, you have to remember that I believe about 1/3 of that amount was allocation money from Champions League & trading our first round pick in the 2011 draft. Then another portion of that went to the option on Fabi and resigning of Ned, and then the remainder of that goes to signing new talent. This will be part of why I expect the RSL roster to be getting a boost of some HGP, which don’t count against the cap, some draft picks which can be signed to non- cap roster spots, and at best two players who will fill in slots on the senior roster. I am hoping that can be two in addition to Yordany, but it comes down to what we can get MLS and Orlando City to agree to.
I would also say that Dell Loy Hansen is a wealthy man, he probably has been fairly hard hit by the real estate issues the last couple of years. Still one has to consider that we have one DP – Saborio on the roster- not because of his salary but because of what RSL is obligated to pay back MLS who fronted his transfer fee. To add another DP to our roster would mean a cap hit of $335,000, I don’t believe we have that much room without cutting even deeper than we already have. Also we have to deal with the reality that if we extend Javi’s contract he would move above the DP limit.
To think that RSL is in any way cheap on their roster, you only have to look at our midfield which is well over1 million dollars between Kyle’s $231K, Javi’s $452K, Will’s $225K, about $500K for the other midfielders. That is without RSL paying for Luis Gil, something that they have to prepare for as well, he will probably be over $200K next year. The reality is that RSL has some very well paid players spread across their entire roster.
"Cheap" is probably unfair.
Everybody in the league but NY and LA are on a fairly tight budget. But I don’t think RSL will be running like NE does any time soon.
'Gentlemen' he said,
'I don't need your organization,
I've shined your shoes,
moved your mountains and marked your cards,
but Eden is burning.
Either get ready for elimination,
or else your heart must have the courage,
for the changing of the guards.'
MLS
Unfortunately the MLS is taking a page from the NBA way of thinking. We are going to have 3 or 4 teams with deep pockets that have more money than there is tea in China. Just as the NBA has decided to have 6 or so elite teams and the rest of the league is “filler” teams.
RSL can’t compete financially with LA, NY, Seattle, and maybe even Toronto. So we will have to hope we find good players that will fit and play into our system. If we do, we can play with those teams and beat them and prove money doesn’t always guarantee success.
Not really
The point right now is income, there are set revenue streams for MLS and while the new TV deal is nice it isn’t close to what the NHL or NBA get, so despite our average attendance matching theirs you are also dealing with a lot less home events, so a lot less income. The Adidas deal is good for some money, and some teams have good deals with sponsors of stadiums and kits, but the reality of it all comes down to TV money.
The Galaxy just got over 5 million a year for the local TV rights (which includes international rights), so keeping Beckham is easy, but a lot of teams in MLS don’t get anything from local TV rights, so there is a huge gap there. The salary cap does keep things much more even in the league than in the NBA or other sports, remember that it took 5 years for a team with a DP or more than one DP to lift MLS Cup. It is a lot of balance, for RSL fans the biggest thing they can do is make sure they watch every match (or record) every match on TV and help the team sell out every match, these are things sponsors look at when they are writing checks.
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