FanPost

MLS Power Ranking Averages Week 3 - Big jump for Dallas

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 3

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that matchup. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14

Sites Used: (Four new sites added!)

  • Allvoices (www.allvoices.com/users/zacwassink)
  • Black & Red United (www.blackandredunited.com) *New Week 3
  • Dallas News Soccer Blog (www.soccerblog.dallasnews.com) *New Week 3
  • ESPN (espn.go.com/sports/soccer/mls)
  • Fansided-MLS Multiplex (fansided.com/category/soccer/mls/mls-multiplex)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com)
  • Northbank-RSL (www.northbankrsl.com)
  • Oregon Live (www.oregonlive.com/timbers) *New Week 3
  • ProSoccerTalk (prosoccertalk.nbcsports.com)
  • Reddit/MLS (www.reddit.com/r/MLS)
  • Seattle Times Blog (blogs.seattletimes.com/soundersfc)
  • Soccer America (www.socceramerica.com)
  • Soccer by Ives (www.soccerbyives.net)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • UTN Sports (www.utnsports.com/category/soccer) *New Week 3

Thanks to readers for submitting 4 new Power Rankings! Some concern was raised via Reddit over bias using 'team-specific' ratings; 3 of the 4 new sites are also 'team specific' which may spread the bias more evenly, that said 7 of the 15 sites are in that realm. I am separately testing a method to drop the high/low scores for each team to see if that alters the overall rankings. That will be included below as well.

If you know of a Power Ranking site that I have not included, please send it to me via this site or on reddit.com/r/MLS and I will consider using it.

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
With the addition of four new sites the Week 2 averages changed slightly, and are reflected below (old values).

Week 2
Week 3
Team
W2 Ave
W3 Ave
Low
High
1 (1)
1
Houston 1.47 (1.45)
2.07
6
1
3 (4) 2
Toronto 4.93 (5.64) 2.60 7
1
2 (2) 3
Salt Lake
2.40 (2.00) 4.00
7
1
10 (11) 4
Dallas 9.40 (9.55) 5.27 10
1
5 tie (5) 5
Kansas City 6.73 (6.73) 5.53 10
2
5 tie (9) 6
Seattle 6.73 (8.36) 5.87 11
4
11 (10) 7
Columbus 10.00 (9.18) 6.20 11
2
7 (7) 8
Los Angeles 7.67 (8.09) 8.80 14
4
4 (3) 9 (tie)
Philadelphia 5.80 (4.82) 9.13
12
3
14 (13) 9 (tie)
Colorado 12.20 (12.45) 9.13 13
6
9 (8) 11
Vancouver 8.67 (8.18) 9.67 14
3
8 (6) 12
Portland 7.73 (7.27) 12.33
16
9
12 (12) 13 (tie)
Chivas 11.07 (11.09) 13.33
16
9
15 (14) 13 (tie)
New York
12.80 (12.64) 13.33
16
9
13 (15) 15
San Jose
11.93 (13.00) 13.93
17
10
16 (16) 16
Chicago 15.87 (16.18) 15.07
17
12
18 (18) 17
New England 17.47 (17.27) 16.73 18
15
17 (17) 18
Montreal 17.40 (16.73) 18.20
19
17
19 (19) 19
D.C.
18.73 (18.82) 18.73
19
18


High / Low Variance

This is a reflection of how similar sites are at ranking teams. Last weeks results led to almost as much Hi/Low variance as previous results. The 10+ variance was reduced slightly, but those below 5 also decreased.
1 position: D.C.
2 positions: MI
3 positions: NER
5 positions: CF, HD
6 positions: TFC, RSL
7 positions: SJE, NYRB, CUSA, PT, SS
9 positions: CC, SKC
10+ positions: VWc, CR, PU, LAG, FCD

Biggest Rise / Fall (from original rank)
Dallas: +6
Philadelphia, Portland: -6

Season Average Power Ranking

Pos
Team
W3 Ave
W2 Ave
W1 Ave
2013 Ave
2012 Ave
1
Salt Lake
2.63
1.95 (1.69) 1.50 (1.27) 4.52
8.40
2
Houston 2.85
3.24 (3.09) 5.00 (4.73) 7.74 6.29
3
Kansas City 5.59
5.62 (5.81) 4.50 (4.73) 4.45 3.09
4
Seattle 5.74 5.68 (6.36) 3.43 (3.82) 9.36 4.39
5
Toronto 6.37 8.25 (9.39) 11.57 (12.55) 16.85 10.96
6
Los Angeles 7.70 7.16 (7.76) 6.64 (7.18) 5.14 2.46
7
Portland 8.09
5.97 (5.88) 4.21 (4.64) 5.73 13.89
8
Vancouver
8.11
7.34 (6.70) 6.00 (5.18) 10.41
7.87
9
Philadelphia 8.41
8.05 (7.17) 10.29 (9.45) 10.53 15.7
10
Dallas 8.56 10.20 (9.89) 11.00 (10.55) 8.78 17.17
11
Columbus
8.80
10.11 (9.08) 10.21 (9.27) 12.89
9.46
12
Colorado 11.13 12.14 (12.09) 12.07 (12.18) 9.79 10.06
13
New York
12.02
11.37 (11.52) 9.93 (10.36) 6.38
7.23
14
Chivas 12.61
12.25 (12.31) 13.43 (13.73) 15.76 15.15
15
San Jose
12.98
12.50 (12.80) 13.07 (12.82) 12.34
4.86
16
Chicago 15.93 16.37 (16.60) 16.86 (17.09) 14.27 13.07
17
New England
16.26
16.02 (15.94) 14.57 (14.55) 12.35
14.84
18
Montreal
17.49
17.13 (16.98) 16.86 (16.73)
5.32
15.74
19
D.C.
18.63
18.59 (18.85) 18.64 (18.91)
17.29
9.33


With the four new lists there were several changes from previous weeks, but 3 weeks in and separation is becoming more clear. The teams at the bottom will need to improve soon or risk staying near the bottom for the rest of the season.
Largest gap: 2.95 points between San Jose and Chicago
Smallest gap: .02 between Portland and Vancouver

Elite
Contenders
Could Be's
Wanna Be's
Bottom Dwellers
Real Salt Lake
Houston Dynamo
Sporting Kansas City
Seattle Sounders
Toronto FC
LA Galaxy
Portland Timbers
Vancouver Whitecaps
Philadelphia Union
FC Dallas
Columbus Crew
Colorado Rapids
New York Red Bulls
Chivas USA
San Jose Earthquakes
Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
Montreal Impact
D.C. United


Bias-Free Average?
And finally the average list in testing dropping the Highest/Lowest scores for each team

Week 3 Pos
(above)
Week 3
(-Hi/Low)
Team
W3 Ave
Wk 3 Ave
(-Hi/Low)
Low
High
1
1
Houston 2.07
1.85
6
1
2
2
Toronto 2.60 2.38
7
1
3
3
Salt Lake
4.00
4.00
7
1
4
4
Dallas 5.27 5.23
10
1
5
5
Kansas City 5.53 5.46
10
2
6
6
Seattle 5.87 5.62
11
4
7
7
Columbus 6.20 6.15
11
2
8
8
Los Angeles 8.80 8.77
14
4
9 tie
10
Philadelphia 9.13
9.38
12
3
9 tie
9
Colorado 9.13 9.08
13
6
11
11
Vancouver 9.67 9.85
14
3
12
12
Portland 12.33
12.31
16
9
13 tie
13 tie
Chivas 13.33
13.46
16
9
13 tie
13 tie
New York
13.33
13.46
16
9
15
14
San Jose
13.93
14.00
17
10
16
15
Chicago 15.07
15.15
17
12
17
16
New England 16.73 16.77
18
15
18
17
Montreal 18.20
18.23
19
17
19
18
D.C.
18.73
18.77
19
18


The only change in standings is the tie between Colorado and Philadelphia was resolved with the Rapids taking sole possession of 9th by .3 points. I'll continue to track it, but it would appear from this that dropping the highest/lowest will have only minor point changes; which would result in position changes only between teams that are close in total score - something that would also likely occur in the total average rankings as well.

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