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Power Ranking Averages Week 5 - D.C. Rises From Cellar

Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 5

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that matchup. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Allvoices (www.allvoices.com/users/zacwassink)
  • Black & Red United (www.blackandredunited.com)
  • Dallas News Soccer Blog (www.soccerblog.dallasnews.com)
  • ESPN (espn.go.com/sports/soccer/mls)
  • Fansided-MLS Multiplex (fansided.com/category/soccer/mls/mls-multiplex)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com)
  • Northbank-RSL (www.northbankrsl.com)
  • Oregon Live (www.oregonlive.com/timbers)
  • ProSoccerTalk (prosoccertalk.nbcsports.com)
  • Reddit/MLS (www.reddit.com/r/MLS)
  • Seattle Times Blog (blogs.seattletimes.com/soundersfc)
  • Soccer America (www.socceramerica.com)
  • Soccer by Ives (www.soccerbyives.net)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • UTN Sports (www.utnsports.com/category/soccer) - No Ranking Wk 5

Continuing the bias-free test of dropping the high/low scores for each team to see if that alters the overall rankings. That is included at the bottom.

No new sites this week, if you know of a Power Ranking site that I have not included, please send it to me via this site or on reddit.com/r/MLS and I will consider using it.

Weekly Power Ranking Averages

Week 5
Week 4
Week 3
Team
W5 Ave
W4 Ave
W3 Ave
Low
High
1
3
4
Dallas 1.79
3.07 5.27 6
1
2
1
3 Salt Lake 1.86
2.13 4.00 3
1
3
7
2
Toronto 3.36 6.60 2.60 5
2
4
4
5
Kansas City 3.93 3.80 5.53 7
1
5
2
7 Columbus 5.14
2.27 6.20 8
4
6
8
8
Los Angeles 6.71 8.80 8.80 11
2
7
11
9 tie
Colorado 7.86 11.00 9.13 10
4
8
9
6
Seattle 8.21 8.93 5.87 13
5
9
5 11 Vancouver 8.57
5.67 9.67 11
7
10
6
1
Houston 9.07
6.33 2.07
16
6
11
10
9 tie
Philadelphia 10.07
9.73 9.13
13
7
12
14
13 tie
New York 13.79 13.53 13.33 18
11
13
12 13 tie Chivas 13.93
12.33 13.33 19
12
14
15
12
Portland 14.21 14.80 12.33 18
12
15
16
15
Chicago 14.93 15.73 15.07 18
12
16
19
18
D.C. 15.57 18.80 18.73 19
11
17
13 16 New England 15.71
12.47 16.73 18
13
18
17 14
San Jose
17.00
16.40 13.93
19
13
19
18 17
Montreal 18.21
17.33 18.20
19
16

High / Low Variance
Biggest Rise / Fall
Largest Point Gaps
2 positions: RSL
3 positions: TFC, MI
4 positions: CC, VWc
5 positions: FCD, NER
6 positions: SKC, CR, PU, PT, CF, SJE
7 positions: NYRB, CUSA
8 positions: SS, DCU
9 positions: LAG
10+ positions: HD
Toronto, Colorado: +4
Vancouver, Houston, New England: -4
3.72 - PU/NYRB
2.07 - RSL/TFC
1.57 - CC/LAG
1.29 - NER/SJE
1.21 - SKC/CC
1.21 - SJE/MI
1.15 - LA/CR
1.00 - HD/PU


Season Average Power Ranking

Pos
Team
W5 Ave W4 Ave W3 Ave
W2 Ave
W1 Ave
1
Salt Lake
2.38
2.51
2.63
1.95 1.50
2
Houston 4.79
3.72
2.85
3.24 5.00
3
Kansas City 4.90
5.14
5.59
5.62 4.50
4 Toronto 5.81
6.43
6.37 8.25 11.57
5
Dallas 6.11
7.19 8.56 10.20 11.00
6
Columbus 6.76
7.17
8.80 10.11 10.21
7
Seattle 6.87
6.54 5.74 5.68 3.43
8
Vancouver 7.72
7.50
8.11 7.34 6.00
8
Los Angeles 7.72
7.98
7.70 7.16 6.64
10
Philadelphia 9.00
8.74
8.41 8.05 10.29
11
Colorado 10.45
11.10 11.13 12.14 12.07
12
Portland 10.66
9.77
8.09
5.97 4.21
13
New York
12.68
12.40
12.02
11.37 9.93
14
Chivas 12.82
12.54
12.61
12.25 13.43
15
San Jose
14.47
13.83
12.98
12.50 13.07
16
New England 15.39
15.31
16.26 16.02 14.57
17
Chicago 15.69
15.88
15.93 16.37 16.86
18
Montreal
17.60
17.45
17.49
17.13 16.86
19
D.C.
18.05
18.68
18.63
18.59 18.64


Several position changes in the middle of the table, but top 3 remain firm.
Largest gap: 2.41 points between RSL and Houston
Smallest gap: 0.00 between Vancouver and LA

Bias-Free Average?
And finally the average list in testing with dropping the Highest/Lowest scores for each team

Week 5
(-hi/low)
Week 5
(above)
Team
W5 Ave
(-hi/low)
W5 Ave
(above)
Low
High
1
1 Dallas 1.50
1.79 6
1
2
2
Salt Lake 1.83
1.86 3
1
3
3
Toronto 3.33
3.36 5
2
4
4
Kansas City 3.92
3.93 7
1
5
5
Columbus 5.00
5.14
8
4
6
6
Los Angeles 6.75
6.71 11
2
7
7
Colorado 8.00
7.86 10
4
8
8
Seattle 8.08
8.21 13
5
9
9
Vancouver 8.50
8.57
11
7
10
10
Houston 8.75
9.07
16
6
11
11
Philadelphia 10.08
10.07
13
7
12 tie
12
New York 13.67
13.79 18
11
12 tie
13 Chivas 13.67
13.93 19 12
14
14
Portland 14.08
14.38 18
12
15
15
Chicago 14.92
15.00 18
12
16
16
D.C. 15.67
15.54 19
11
17
17
New England 15.75
15.62
18
13
18
18
San Jose
17.17
16.92
19
13
19
19
Montreal 18.33
18.15
19
16


Third week of tracking this method. As with last week, the only change was two teams moving into a tie.
Biggest point changes:

  • Houston -.32 (variance of 10), no position change
  • Dallas -.29 (variance of 5), no position change
  • Chivas -.26 (variance of 7), +1 into tie with NYRB

Of the 10 teams with a variance of 6+ the only position change was Chivas rising one position into tie with New York.

The "Olympic Type" method of dropping high/low may not make any significant changes, but the three week trial has shown that it can be enough to affect position changes each week. Starting next week I shall start using it as the new method to calculate the averages.

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