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Power Ranking Averages Week 4 - The Return of RSL

Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 4

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that matchup. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14

Sites Used: (Four new sites added!)

  • Allvoices (www.allvoices.com/users/zacwassink)
  • Black & Red United (www.blackandredunited.com)
  • Dallas News Soccer Blog (www.soccerblog.dallasnews.com)
  • ESPN (espn.go.com/sports/soccer/mls)
  • Fansided-MLS Multiplex (fansided.com/category/soccer/mls/mls-multiplex)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com)
  • Northbank-RSL (www.northbankrsl.com)
  • Oregon Live (www.oregonlive.com/timbers)
  • ProSoccerTalk (prosoccertalk.nbcsports.com)
  • Reddit/MLS (www.reddit.com/r/MLS)
  • Seattle Times Blog (blogs.seattletimes.com/soundersfc)
  • Soccer America (www.socceramerica.com)
  • Soccer by Ives (www.soccerbyives.net)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • UTN Sports (www.utnsports.com/category/soccer)

Continuing the bias-free test of dropping the high/low scores for each team to see if that alters the overall rankings. That is included at the bottom.

No new sites this week, if you know of a Power Ranking site that I have not included, please send it to me via this site or on reddit.com/r/MLS and I will consider using it.

Weekly Power Ranking Averages

Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Team
W2 Ave
W3 Ave
W4 Ave Low
High
2 3 1
Salt Lake 2.40 4.00 2.13 4
1
11 7 2
Columbus 10.00 6.20 2.27 4
1
10 4 3
Dallas 9.40 5.27 3.07 8
1
5 tie 5
4
Kansas City 6.73 5.53 3.80 7
2
9 11 5
Vancouver 8.67 9.67 5.67 11
2
1
1
6
Houston 1.47 2.07
6.33
11
4
3 2
7
Toronto 4.93 2.60 6.60
8
4
7 8 8
Los Angeles 7.67 8.80 8.80 16
3
5 tie 6
9
Seattle 6.73 5.87 8.93
15
6
4 9 tie
10
Philadelphia 5.80 9.13
9.73
14
5
14 9 tie
11
Colorado 12.20 9.13 11.00
14
9
12 13 tie 12
Chivas 11.07 13.33 12.33 15
9
18 16 13
New England 17.47 16.73 12.47 17
6
15 13 tie 14
New York 12.80 13.33 13.53 18
11
8 12
15
Portland 7.73 12.33
14.80
18
12
16 15 16
Chicago 15.87 15.07 15.73 18
13
13 14
17
San Jose
11.93 13.93
16.40
19
13
17 17
18
Montreal 17.40 18.20
17.33
19
15
19 18
19
D.C.
18.73 18.73
18.80
19
17

High / Low Variance
Biggest Rise / Fall
Significant Point Gaps
2 positions: DCU
3 positions: RSL, CC
4 positions: TFC, MI
5 positions: SKC, CR, CF
6 positions: CUSA, PT, SJE
7 positions: FCD, HD, NYRB
9 positions: VWc, SS, PU
10+ positions: LAG, NER
Vancouver: +6
Columbus: +5
Houston, Toronto: -5
2.20 - TFC/LAG
1.87 - SKC/VWc
1.47 - MI/DCU
1.33 - CR/CUSA
1.27 - PU/CR
1.27 - NY/PT
1.06 - NE/NY


Season Average Power Ranking

Pos
Team
W4 Ave W3 Ave
W2 Ave
W1 Ave
1
Salt Lake
2.51
2.63
1.95 1.50
2
Houston 3.72
2.85
3.24 5.00
3
Kansas City 5.14
5.59
5.62 4.50
4 Toronto 6.43
6.37 8.25 11.57
5
Seattle 6.54
5.74 5.68 3.43
6
Columbus 7.17
8.80 10.11 10.21
7
Dallas 7.19
8.56 10.20 11.00
8
Vancouver 7.50
8.11 7.34 6.00
9
Los Angeles 7.98
7.70 7.16 6.64
10
Philadelphia 8.74
8.41 8.05 10.29
11
Portland 9.77
8.09
5.97 4.21
12
Colorado 11.10
11.13 12.14 12.07
13
New York
12.40
12.02
11.37 9.93
14
Chivas 12.54
12.61
12.25 13.43
15
San Jose
13.83
12.98
12.50 13.07
16
New England 15.31
16.26 16.02 14.57
17
Chicago 15.88
15.93 16.37 16.86
18
Montreal
17.45
17.49
17.13 16.86
19
D.C.
18.68
18.63
18.59 18.64


Several position changes in the middle of the table, but top 3 remain firm.
Largest gap: 1.57 points between Montreal and Chicago
Smallest gap: .02 between Columbus and Dallas

Bias-Free Average?
And finally the average list in testing with dropping the Highest/Lowest scores for each team

Week 4
(-hi/low)
Week 4
(above)
Team
W4 Ave
(-hi/low)
W4 Ave
(above)
Low
High
1
1
Salt Lake 2.08
2.13 4
1
2
2
Columbus 2.23
2.27 4
1
3
3
Dallas 2.85
3.07 8
1
4
4
Kansas City 3.69
3.80 7
2
5
5
Vancouver 5.54
5.67 11
2
6
6
Houston 6.15
6.33
11
4
7
7
Toronto 6.69
6.60
8
4
8
8
Los Angeles 8.69
8.80 16
3
8
9
Seattle 8.69
8.93
15
6
10
10
Philadelphia 9.77
9.73
14
5
11
11
Colorado 10.92
11.00
14
9
12
12
Chivas 12.38
12.33 15
9
13
13
New England 12.62
12.47 17
6
14
14
New York 13.38
13.53 18
11
15
15
Portland 14.77
14.80
18
12
16
16
Chicago 15.77
15.73 18
13
17
17
San Jose
16.46
16.40
19
13
18
18
Montreal 17.38
17.33
19
15
19
19
D.C.
18.92
18.80
19
17


After two weeks only one change in standings occurred putting Seattle into a tie with the Galaxy.
Biggest point changes:

  • Seattle -.24 (variance of 9), +1 in standings
  • Dallas -.22 (variance of 7), no position change
  • Houston -.18 (variance of 7), no position change
  • New England +15 (variance of 11), no position change
  • New York -.15 (variance of 7), no position change

It's interesting to note that of the 5 teams with the highest variances, the biggest point change was still less than 1/4 of a point; and that was the only team to improve their standing.

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