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Power Ranking Averages Wk 20 - Kansas City reach #1

Averages culled from 9 sites - includes High / Low, season average, and evaluation of 2 of the sites used.

By Kreg Asay
Gary Rohman-USA TODAY Sports


MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 20


"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that matchup. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14


Sites Used:

  • Allvoices (www.allvoices.com/users/zacwassink)
  • Black & Red United (www.blackandredunited.com) - (No ranking Week 14-20)
  • Dallas News Soccer Blog (www.soccerblog.dallasnews.com)
  • Deseret News (www.deseretnews.com) - (No ranking Week 13-20)
  • ESPN (espn.go.com/sports/soccer/mls)
  • Fansided-MLS Multiplex (fansided.com/category/soccer/mls/mls-multiplex)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com).
  • Northbank-RSL (www.northbankrsl.com) - (No ranking Weeks 9-20)
  • Oregon Live (www.oregonlive.com/timbers)
  • ProSoccerTalk (prosoccertalk.nbcsports.com) - (No ranking Week 13-20)
  • Reddit/MLS (www.reddit.com/r/MLS) - (No ranking Weeks 10-20)
  • Seattle Times Blog (blogs.seattletimes.com/soundersfc) - (No ranking Week 16-20 *writer resigned)
  • Soccer America (www.socceramerica.com)
  • Soccer by Ives (www.soccerbyives.net)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • UTN Sports (www.utnsports.com/category/soccer) - (No ranking Weeks 6-20)

No article for Week 19 as I was out of town.  Several sites resumed publishing Power Rankings in Week 20 following the World Cup break.

If you know of a Power Ranking site that I have not included, please send it to me via this site or on reddit.com/r/MLS and I will consider using it.


Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.
There were no Power Rankings for week 15 due to the World Cup break.

Week 20 Week 19 Week 18 Week 17 Team
 		W20 Avg W19 Avg W18 Avg W17 Avg Low
 		High
 		Var
1
 3
 3
 4
 Kansas City 1.57 2.60
 4.50
 5.00
 3
 1
 2
2
 1
 1
 1
 Seattle 1.71
 1.00
 1.00
 1.00
 3
 1
 2
3
 2
 2
 3
 D.C. 3.00
 2.40
 2.50
 3.50
 4
 2
 2
4
 5
 5
 9
 Los Angeles 4.43
 6.00
 6.50
 9.25
 7
 2
 5
5
 6
 9
 8
 Dallas 6.57
 6.40
 8.25
 8.75
 11
 4
 7
6
 8
 8
 5
 Salt Lake 6.71
 8.20
 8.00
 6.25
 9
 5
 4
7
 9
 6
 7
 Colorado 7.57
 8.80
 7.00
 7.50
 10
 4
 6
8
 4
 4
 6
 Toronto 8.14
 5.60
 4.75
 6.50
 15
 5
 10
9
 7
 7
 2
 Vancouver 8.57
 6.80
 7.25
 3.00
 12
 5
 7
10
 11
 13
 11
 Portland 9.86
 11.60
 13.50
 10.75
 14
 4
 10
11
 10
 10
 12
 New York 11.29
 10.20
 9.25
 11.00
 16
 7
 9
11
 14
 16
 13
 Columbus 11.29
 12.80
 15.00
 12.25
 14
 5
 9
13
 13
 15
 14
 Philadelphia 11.71
 12.40
 14.25
 14.25
 15
 8
 7
14
 17
 18
 18
 San Jose 14.14
 16.80
 18.00
 18.00
 19
 11
 8
15
 11
 11
 15
 Chivas 14.29
 11.60
 11.00
 14.50
 17
 12
 5
16
 15
 14
 16
 Chicago 16.00
 14.60
 13.75
 15.75
 18
 13
 5
17
 16
 12
 9
 New England 16.71
 15.40
 13.00
 9.25
 19
 15
 4
18
 18
 19
 18
 Houston 17.43
 17.60
 18.25
 18.00
 18
 16
 2
19
 19
 17
 17
 Montreal 18.86
 18.60
 17.75
 17.75
 19
 18
 1


Biggest Changes
 		Point Gaps High / Low Variance
Rise
Columbus: +3
San Jose: +3


Fall
Toronto: -4
Chivas: -4

 Largest
Philadelphia - 2.43 - San Jose
Los Angeles - 2.14 - Dallas
Chivas - 1.71 - Chicago

Smallest
New York - 0.00 - Columbus
Kansas City - 0.14 - Seattle
Dallas - 0.14 - Salt Lake
San Jose - 0.15 - Chivas
 1 positions: Montreal
2 position: K.C., Seattle, D.C., Houston
4 positions: Salt Lake, New England
5 positions: L.A., Chivas, Chicago
6 positions: Colorado
7 positions: Dallas, Vancouver, Philadelphia
8 positions: San Jose
9 positions: N.Y., Columbus
10 positions: Toronto, Portland


Season Average Power Ranking

W20 W19 W18 W17
 W16
 Team
 		W20 Avg W19 Avg W18 Avg W17 Avg W16 Avg W14 Avg W13 Avg W12 Avg
1
 1
 2
 2
 2
 Seattle 3.29
 3.37 3.50
 3.65
 3.82
 3.88
 4.10
 4.36
2
 2
 1
 1
 1
 Salt Lake
 3.78
 3.62
 3.37
 3.09
 2.90
 2.29
 2.05
 1.92
3
 3
 3
 3
 3
 Kansas City 4.13
 4.27
 4.36
 4.35
 4.31
 4.62
 4.48
 4.15
4
 4
 4
 4
 4
 Vancouver 6.85
 6.76
 6.76
 6.73
 6.97
 6.62
 6.92
 7.26
5
 5
 5
 5
 5
 Toronto 7.20
 7.15
 7.23
 7.38
 7.44
 7.59
 7.73
 7.79
6
 6
 6
 6
 6
 Los Angeles 7.27
 7.42
 7.50
 7.55
 7.45
 7.65
 7.52
 7.49
7
 7
 7
 7
 7
 Dallas 7.86
 7.92
 8.01
 7.99
 7.95
 7.38
 7.07
 6.52
8
 8
 8
 8
 8
 Colorado 8.49
 8.54
 8.52
 8.61
 8.68
 8.62
 8.61
 8.86
9
 9
 9
 9
 9
 New England 10.05
 9.75
 9.44
 9.23
 9.23
 9.37
 9.70
 10.22
10
 10
 10
 10
 10
 Columbus 10.10
 9.99
 9.83
 9.53 9.36 8.78 8.49 8.14
11
 11
 12
 13
 13
 D.C. 10.17
 10.54
 11.00
 11.50
 12.00
 12.19
 12.76
 13.34
12
 12
 11
 12
 12
 New York 10.81
 10.78
 10.82
 10.91 10.90 11.54 11.67 11.62
13
 13
 13
 11
 11
 Houston 11.78
 11.48
 11.14
 10.72
 10.27
 9.79
 9.31
 8.91
14
 14
 14
 14
 14
 Portland 12.30
 12.43
 12.48
 12.42
 12.52
 13.45
 13.64
 13.74
15
 15
 15
 15
 15
 Philadelphia 12.83
 12.89
 12.92
 12.84
 12.75
 12.90
 12.69
 12.41
16
 16
 16
 16
 16 San Jose 14.63
 14.65
 14.54
 14.33
 14.10
 14.23
 14.35
 14.72
17
 17
 17
 18
 18
 Chivas 15.06
 15.10
 15.30
 15.54
 15.60
 15.29
 15.04
 14.72
18
 18
 18
 17
 17
 Chicago 15.41
 15.38
 15.43
 15.52
 15.51
 15.60
 15.55
 15.51
19
 19
 19
 19
 19
 Montreal
 17.69
 17.63
 17.57
 17.56
 17.55
 17.87
 17.90
 17.95


Team High/Low
Best and worst placement for each team

Team
 		Weekly
Best 		Weekly
Worst 		Season
Best
 		Season
Worst
Chicago Fire
 13
 18
 16
 18
Chivas USA
 11
 19
 13
 18
Colorado Rapids
 4
 14
 8
 13
Columbus Crew
 2
 16
 5
 11
D.C. United
 2
 19
 11
 19
FC Dallas
 1
 14
 3
 11
Houston Dynamo
 1
 19
 2
 13
LA Galaxy
 4
 11
 5
 9
Montreal Impact
 16
 19
 17
 19
New England Revolution
 1
 18
 9
 17
New York Red Bulls
 7
 17
 8
 14
Philadelphia Union
 3
 18
 8
 15
Portland Timbers
 3
 18
 4
 15
Real Salt Lake
 1
 9
 1
 2
San Jose Earthquakes
 10
 18
 14
 17
Seattle Sounders
 1
 9
 1
 6
Sporting Kansas City
 1
 9
 2
 3
Toronto FC
 2
 12
 4
 12
Vancouver Whitecaps
 2
 11
 4
 9
  • In the weekly averages 6 teams have been ranked 1st (Dallas, Houston, New England, Salt Lake, Seattle, Kansas City), and 3 teams have placed last (Chivas, D.C., Montreal).
  • In the season averages 2 teams have been ranked 1st (Salt Lake, Seattle), and 2 teams last (D.C., Montreal).
  • Houston has the distinction of being the only team to be ranked both first and last in the weekly rankings, with New England close behind with first and 2nd to last.  D.C. has risen from last to 2nd.


Site Evaluations
I've broken the sites into 4 groups of 4 for easier publishing.

  • Group 1 - the "Big" sites (ESPN, SI, MLS, PST) *(see weeks 16 & 17)
  • Group 2 - the "dead" sites (Northbank, Reddit, SBI, UTN) *(week 18)
  • Group 3 - Newspapers (Dallas, Deseret, Oregon, SA)
  • Group 4 - Fan blogs (Allvoices, B&R, Multiplex, Seattle)

To avoid making each article longer than necessary I'll split the groups of 4 into 2 separate pieces over the next 8 weeks (or less since some sites have stopped).  Each site will be evaluated based on the Week 14 PR Averages above, I'll do a post-season evaluation for the latter half of the season.

Here's my evaluation criteria.

  • Consistency - Publish regularly.
  • Bias - Teams are rated equally, not on any obvious bias.
  • Fairness - Teams dropping / rising significantly due to one result is not a fair representation of overall performance.

Soccer America (socceramerica.com)

Pub Date WK CHI CHV COL CLB DCU FCD HOU LAG MON NER NYRB PHI POR RSL SJE SEA SKC TFC VAN
03/11/14 1 18 16 9 14 19 11 3 7 15 13 8 12 5 1 10 2 6 17 4
03/17/14 2 16 10 12 13 19 6 2 9 17 18 14 4 8 1 15 7 11 5 3
03/24/14 3 15 13 10 11 19 5 1 8 18 17 14 7 12 2 16 6 9 4 3
03/31/14 4 14 12 11 4 19 3 6 8 18 13 15 9 16 1 17 10 5 7 2
04/07/14 5 14 13 6 5 12 2 11 8 16 17 15 9 18 1 19 10 3 4 7
04/14/14 6 15 14 3 4 11 6 13 7 16 12 17 10 18 1 19 5 2 8 9
04/21/14 7 15 14 5 6 11 3 13 7 19 12 16 10 18 1 17 4 2 9 8
04/28/14 8 16 18 8 5 10 4 14 7 17 11 12 13 19 2 15 1 3 9 6
05/05/14 9 16 19 7 6 10 4 13 8 17 9 11 14 18 2 15 1 3 12 5
05/12/14 10 15 17 8 10 9 6 13 7 18 5 11 16 19 1 14 2 3 12 4
05/19/14 11 14 17 9 12 7 5 11 8 18 3 13 16 19 1 15 2 6 10 4
05/26/14 12 15 18 8 10 7 11 12 6 19 3 14 17 16 2 13 1 5 9 4
06/02/14 13 17 19 6 12 5 11 14 7 18 3 13 15 16 4 9 1 10 8 2
06/09/14 14 17 19 8 12 3 11 16 6 18 4 13 14 14 5 10 1 9 7 2
Average
15.50 15.64 7.86 8.86 11.50 6.29 10.14 7.36 17.43 10.00 13.29 11.86 15.43 1.79 14.57 3.79 5.50 8.64 4.50
All Site Average
15.54
 13.86
 9.11
 6.42
 15.68
 5.25
 7.80
 6.97
 17.82
 13.76
 12.67
 10.14
 12.92
 2.05
 15.24
 5.32
 4.28
 6.43
 8.20
+/-
-0.04
 +1.78
 -1.25
 +2.44
 -4.18
 +1.04
 +2.34
 +0.39
 -0.39
 -3.76
 +0.62
 +1.72
 +2.51
 -0.26
 -0.67
 -1.53
 +1.22
 +2.21
 -3.70
  • Consistency: No dates missed
  • Bias: 7 teams with a variance over 2; highest was -4.18 and closest to average was -0.04
  • Fairness: I exclude weeks 1-5 due to both teams and raters getting settled.  The largest jumps after Wk5 were New England (5 pos. Wk6), Seattle (5 pos. Wk 6), Dallas (6 pos. Wk12), Kansas City (5 pos. Wk 13).  That's only four jumps of 5 or more.
    • The N.E. jump comes from a 2-0 home win vs a declining Houston.  Label this as curious.
    • Seattle's stems from a 3-2 win away vs Dallas which is at least plausible.
    • Dallas' 6 pt fall comes after a 2-1 away loss vs LA, then a scoreless away draw vs RSL.  Quite baffling.
    • K.C.'s fall is after a 1-1 tie at home vs NY, then a 1-0 loss away vs D.C.  Very odd.

Soccer America has been somewhat bias-free, although three teams are somewhat further than average.  In terms of fairness of ranking there are 3 significant jumps that are questionable.

Oregon Live (connect.oregonlive.com)

Pub. Date WK CHI CHV COL CLB DCU FCD HOU LAG MON NER NYRB PHI POR RSL SJE SEA SKC TFC VAN
n/a 1


















03/18/14 2 15 13 9 8 18 2 1 11 17 19 16 5 14 3 4 12 10 6 7
03/25/14 3 13 16 8 7 19 2 1 10 17 18 14 11 15 4 12 6 5 3 9
04/01/14 4 14 13 10 4 19 1 5 9 17 15 12 11 16 2 18 8 3 7 6
04/08/14 5 12 16 10 5 18 1 7 6 17 15 11 13 14 2 19 8 3 4 9
04/15/14 6 11 15 8 4 16 2 10 5 18 12 14 13 17 1 19 6 3 7 9
04/21/14 7 15 16 7 6 12 3 13 5 19 14 11 10 17 2 18 4 1 8 9
04/29/14 8 15 19 10 4 11 5 14 6 17 12 9 13 18 2 16 1 3 7 8
05/06/14 9 18 19 8 10 12 5 13 9 17 6 4 14 15 2 16 1 3 11 7
05/13/14 10 15 17 9 11 8 10 14 7 19 4 6 18 16 1 12 3 2 13 5
05/20/14 11 14 16 10 13 6 7 9 11 19 3 8 18 17 1 15 2 4 12 5
05/27/14 12 17 16 7 11 9 6 12 8 19 1 10 18 15 3 14 2 4 13 5
06/03/14 13 17 19 6 12 5 14 15 8 18 2 10 16 13 3 11 1 7 9 4
06/10/14 14 17 18 10 14 5 11 15 12 19 3 7 16 9 8 13 1 4 6 2
Average
14.85 16.39 8.62 8.39 12.15 5.31 9.92 8.23 17.92 9.54 10.15 13.54 15.08 2.62 14.39 4.23 4.00 8.15 6.54
All Site Average
15.54
 13.86
 9.11
 6.42
 15.68
 5.25
 7.80
 6.97
 17.82
 13.76
 12.67
 10.14
 12.92
 2.05
 15.24
 5.32
 4.28
 6.43
 8.20
+/-
-0.69
 +2.53
 -0.49
 +1.97
 -3.53
 +0.06
 +2.12
 +1.26
 +0.10
 -4.22
 -2.52
 +3.40
 +2.16
 +0.57
 -0.85
 -1.09
 -0.28 +1.72
 -1.66

  • Consistency: No dates missed
  • Bias: 7 teams with a variance above 2; the highest was +4.22, closest to average was +0.06.
  • Fairness: Excluding weeks 1-5 due to both teams and raters getting settled.  Jumps after week 5 include Columbus (6 pos. Wk 9), New England (6 pos. Wk 9), Dallas (5 pos. Wk 10, 8 pos. Wk13), Houston (5 pos. Wk 11), Salt Lake (5 pos. Wk 14).  With the exclusion of Wks 1-5 that gives 6 jumps of 5 or more.
    • Columbus' drop was the result of a 2-0 away loss to an in-form K.C.  Baffling decision.
    • N.E.'s rise came after a 2-1 away win vs Toronto.  Plausible if a bit excessive.
    • The first of Dallas' jumps came at the hands of back to back away losses, first vs a rising Seattle; the other vs a weak San Jose.  Plausible decision.
    • Dallas' second and biggest fall again came in a 2-1 home loss vs San Jose.  Understandable, but 8 positions is excessive.
    • Houston rose 5 after defeating LA at home.  Curious.
    • Salt Lake's fall was the result of a 3-1 loss at home vs a very out of form Portland.  Understandable, but excessive.

As with SA (above), Oregon Live is somewhat bias free with the similar variance levels.  I give them a bit of recognition for not being more biased toward their local team, however other rating decisions have been questionable.

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