Power Ranking Averages Wk 23 - Close call for first.

MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 23

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

• Allvoices (www.allvoices.com/users/zacwassink) - (No ranking Week 22-23)
• Black & Red United (www.blackandredunited.com) - (No ranking Week 14-23) *POSSIBLE DEAD LIST
• Dallas News Soccer Blog (www.soccerblog.dallasnews.com) - (No ranking Week 23)
  
• Deseret News (www.deseretnews.com) - (No ranking Week 13-23)
• ESPN (espn.go.com/sports/soccer/mls)
• Fansided-MLS Multiplex (fansided.com/category/soccer/mls/mls-multiplex)
• Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com).
• Northbank-RSL (www.northbankrsl.com) - (No ranking Weeks 9-23) *DEAD LIST
• Oregon Live (www.oregonlive.com/timbers)
  
• ProSoccerTalk (prosoccertalk.nbcsports.com)
• Reddit/MLS (www.reddit.com/r/MLS) - (No ranking Weeks 10-23) *DEAD LIST
• Seattle Times Blog (blogs.seattletimes.com/soundersfc)
• Soccer America (www.socceramerica.com)
• Soccer by Ives (www.soccerbyives.net) - (No ranking Week 21-23)
• Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
• UTN Sports (www.utnsports.com/category/soccer) - (No ranking Weeks 6-23) *DEAD LIST
  

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Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Week 23	Week 22	Week 21	Week 20	Week 19	Team	W23 Avg	W22 Avg	W21 Avg	W20 Avg	W19 Avg	Low	High	Range
1	3	2	1	3	Kansas City	1.50	3.00	1.80	1.57	2.60	8	1	7
2	4	5	6	8	Salt Lake	1.67	3.43	5.20	6.71	8.20	3	1	2
3	5	6	5	6	Dallas	3.50	5.29	6.40	6.57	6.40	5	2	3
4	2	4	2	1	Seattle	4.00	2.26	4.00	1.71	1.00	7	1	6
5	1	1	4	5	Los Angeles	5.17	1.86	1.60	4.43	6.00	11	4	7
6	6	3	3	2	D.C.	5.33	6.29	3.20	3.00	2.40	6	3	3
7	7	9	9	7	Vancouver	7.50	7.29	9.40	8.57	6.80	10	6	4
8	8	7	8	4	Toronto	7.67	7.43	7.00	8.14	5.60	14	7	7
9	9	12	10	11	Portland	9.17	10.00	11.4	9.86	11.60	12	4	8
10	11	8	11	10	New York	10.33	10.71	8.80	11.29	10.20	15	8	7
11	14	13	11	14	Columbus	10.50	13.57	11.80	11.29	12.80	12	5	7
12	10	11	13	13	Philadelphia	11.33	10.14	11.20	11.71	12.40	13	9	4
13	13	9	7	9	Colorado	14.00	12.14	9.40	7.57	8.80	18	12	6
14	18	15	18	18	Houston	14.17	17.14	15.60	17.43	17.60	16	12	4
15	12	14	14	17	San Jose	14.67	11.71	13.40	14.14	16.80	16	13	3
16	16	18	17	16	New England	16.33	16.57	17.20	16.71	15.40	18	10	8
17	15	17	16	15	Chicago	16.83	15.14	16.60	16.00	14.60	19	16	3
18	16	16	15	11	Chivas	17.17	16.57	16.00	14.29	11.60	19	14	5
19	19	19	19	19	Montreal	18.83	19.00	19.00	18.86	18.60	19	13	6

Biggest Changes	Point Gaps	High / Low Variance
Rise Houston: +4 Columbus: +3 Fall Los Angeles: -4 San Jose: -3	Largest Philadelphia - 2.67 - Colorado D.C. - 2.17 - Vancouver Smallest Los Angeles - 0.16 - D.C. Kansas City - 0.17 - Salt Lake Vancouver - 0.17 - Toronto Colorado - 0.17 - Houston	2 positions: Salt Lake 3 positions: Dallas, D.C., Chicago, San Jose 4 positions: Vancouver, Philadelphia, Houston 5 positions: Chivas 6 positions: Seattle, Colorado, Montreal 7 positions: K.C., L.A., Toronto, N.Y., Columbus 8 positions: Portland, New England

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Season Average Power Ranking

W23	W22	W21	W20	W19	W18	Team	W23 Avg	W22 Avg	W21 Avg	W20 Avg	W19 Avg	W18 Avg	W17 Avg	W16 Avg
1	1	1	1	1	2	Seattle	3.31	3.27	3.32	3.29	3.37	3.50	3.65	3.82
2	2	2	2	2	1	Salt Lake	3.73	3.82	3.84	3.78	3.62	3.37	3.09	2.90
3	3	3	3	3	3	Kansas City	3.87	3.97	4.02	4.13	4.27	4.36	4.35	4.31
4	4	5	6	6	6	Los Angeles	6.70	6.76	7.00	7.27	7.42	7.50	7.55	7.45
5	5	4	4	4	4	Vancouver	7.01	6.99	6.98	6.85	6.76	6.76	6.73	6.97
6	6	6	5	5	5	Toronto	7.22	7.20	7.19	7.20	7.15	7.23	7.38	7.44
7	7	7	7	7	7	Dallas	7.49	7.67	7.79	7.86	7.92	8.01	7.99	7.95
8	8	8	8	8	8	Colorado	8.93	8.70	8.53	8.49	8.54	8.52	8.61	8.68
9	9	9	11	11	12	D.C.	9.49	9.67	9.84	10.17	10.54	11.00	11.50	12.00
10	10	10	10	10	10	Columbus	10.30	10.29	10.14	10.10	9.99	9.83	9.53	9.36
11	11	12	12	12	11	New York	10.70	10.71	10.71	10.81	10.78	10.82	10.91	10.90
12	12	11	9	9	9	New England	10.96	10.72	10.44	10.05	9.75	9.44	9.23	9.23
13	13	14	14	14	14	Portland	12.03	12.16	12.26	12.30	12.43	12.48	12.42	12.52
14	14	13	13	13	13	Houston	12.28	12.20	11.96	11.78	11.48	11.14	10.72	10.27
15	15	15	15	15	15	Philadelphia	12.58	12.63	12.75	12.83	12.89	12.92	12.84	12.75
16	16	16	16	16	16	San Jose	14.45	14.44	14.57	14.63	14.65	14.54	14.33	14.10
17	17	17	17	17	17	Chivas	15.26	15.17	15.10	15.06	15.10	15.30	15.54	15.60
18	18	18	18	18	18	Chicago	15.51	15.45	15.47	15.41	15.38	15.43	15.52	15.51
19	19	19	19	19	19	Montreal	17.85	17.81	17.75	17.69	17.63	17.57	17.56	17.55

Team High/Low
Best and worst placement for each team

Team	Weekly Best	Weekly Worst	Season Best	Season Worst
Chicago Fire	13	18	16	18
Chivas USA	11	19	13	18
Colorado Rapids	4	14	8	13
Columbus Crew	2	16	5	11
D.C. United	2	19	9	19
FC Dallas	1	14	3	11
Houston Dynamo	1	19	2	14
LA Galaxy	1	11	4	9
Montreal Impact	16	19	17	19
New England Revolution	1	18	9	17
New York Red Bulls	7	17	8	14
Philadelphia Union	3	18	8	15
Portland Timbers	3	18	4	15
Real Salt Lake	1	9	1	2
San Jose Earthquakes	10	18	14	17
Seattle Sounders	1	9	1	6
Sporting Kansas City	1	9	2	3
Toronto FC	2	12	4	12
Vancouver Whitecaps	2	11	4	9

• In the weekly averages 7 teams have been ranked 1st (Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, New England, Salt Lake, Seattle, Kansas City), and 3 teams have placed last (Chivas, D.C., Montreal).
• In the season averages 2 teams have been ranked 1st (Salt Lake, Seattle), and 2 teams last (D.C., Montreal).
• Houston has the distinction of being the only team to be ranked both first and last in the weekly rankings, with New England close behind with first and 2nd to last.  D.C. has risen from last to 2nd.
  

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Site Evaluations
I've broken the sites into 4 groups of 4 for easier publishing.

• Group 1 - the "Big" sites (ESPN, SI, MLS, PST) - (weeks 16 & 17)
  
• Group 2 - the "dead" sites (Northbank, Reddit, SBI, UTN) - (week 18)
  
• Group 3 - Newspapers (Dallas, Deseret, Oregon, SA) - (week 20 & 21)
  
• Group 4 - Fan blogs (*Allvoices, B&R, *Multiplex, Seattle) - (week 22 & 23)
  

To avoid making each article longer than necessary I've split the groups of 4 into 1 or 2 separate weeks.  Each site will be evaluated based on the Week 14 PR Averages above, I'll do a post-season evaluation for the latter half of the season.

Here's my evaluation criteria.

• Consistency - Publish regularly.
• Bias - Teams are rated equally, not on any obvious bias.
  
• Fairness - Teams dropping / rising significantly due to one result is not a fair representation of overall performance.

Seattle Times Blog (blogs.seattletimes.com/soundersfc)

Pub Date	WK	CHI	CUSA	COL	CLB	DCU	FCD	HOU	LAG	Mon	NER	NYRB	PHI	POR	RSL	SJE	SEA	SKC	TFC	VAN
03/11/14	1	17	16	10	8	19	13	6	5	18	15	9	12	2	1	14	3	4	11	7
03/18/14	2	16	15	11	9	19	13	2	4	18	17	12	10	5	1	14	7	3	6	8
03/25/14	3	16	15	9	6	18	10	1	7	19	17	14	12	11	2	13	5	4	3	8
04/02/14	4	16	14	10	2	19	4	6	8	18	13	15	11	12	1	17	9	3	7	5
04/09/14	5	14	15	7	6	17	2	10	5	19	18	13	11	12	1	16	9	3	4	8
04/15/14	6	13	14	5	7	15	3	11	2	19	16	17	10	12	1	18	8	4	6	9
04/23/14	7	13	17	5	7	10	3	16	6	19	12	11	14	15	2	18	1	4	9	8
04/29/14	8	17	18	12	8	9	5	14	4	19	11	7	15	13	2	16	1	3	10	6
05/06/14	9	18	19	5	11	13	4	9	10	17	7	8	14	16	2	15	1	3	12	6
05/13/14	10	14	16	6	15	7	8	9	11	19	3	10	18	17	1	13	4	2	12	5
05/20/14	11	11	16	8	15	7	9	6	13	19	2	12	17	18	1	14	3	5	10	4
05/28/14	12	14	17	6	13	7	10	11	8	19	1	15	18	16	2	12	3	5	9	4
06/04/14	13	16	19	8	9	6	13	14	10	18	4	12	17	11	3	15	1	7	5	2
06/11/14	14	14	18	8	15	5	10	16	9	19	3	13	17	12	4	11	1	7	6	2
Average		15	16.53	7.87	9.60	12.53	8.07	9.33	7.00	18.53	9.73	11.47	13.87	11.60	1.93	14.47	4.13	3.87	8.00	6.47
All Site Avg.		15.54	13.86	9.11	6.42	15.68	5.25	7.80	6.97	17.82	13.76	12.67	10.14	12.92	2.05	15.24	5.32	4.28	6.43	8.20
+/-		-0.54	+2.67	-1.24	+3.18	-3.15	+2.82	+1.53	+0.03	+0.71	-4.03	-1.20	+3.73	-1.32	-0.12	-0.77	-1.19	-0.41	+1.57	-1.73

• Consistency: No dates missed.
  
• Bias: 6 teams with a variance over 2; highest was -4.03, closest to average was +0.03.
  
• Fairness: I exclude weeks 1-5 due to both teams and raters getting settled. Jumps of 5+ include Colorado (7 pos. Wk 8, 7 pos. Wk 9), Columbus (6 pos. Wk 14), D.C. (5 pos. Wk 7, 6 pos. Wk 10), Houston (5 pos. Wk 7, 5 pos. Wk 9, 5 pos. Wk 12), Los Angeles (6 pos. Wk 9, 5 pos. Wk 12), New York (6 pos. Wk 7), Portland (5 pos. Wk 13), Seattle (7 pos. Wk 7).
  

During the first 14 weeks Seattle Times was among the best for consistency.  Over the World Cup break the author resigned and was only recently replaced, thus there was a 6 week gap with no rating.  The Bias rating is about average in number of teams above 2, but a bit higher than average with one team over 4 points difference.  In Fairness however Seattle Times is comparable to other blogs with just 8 teams making 13 jumps over 5 positions; but it does not succumb to the expected "home bias".  While the home team is rated below average, it isn't abnormally so.

Black & Red United Blog (blackandredunited.com/)

Pub Date	WK	CHI	CUSA	COL	CLB	DCU	FCD	HOU	LAG	Mon	NER	NYRB	PHI	POR	RSL	SJE	SEA	SKC	TFC	VAN
03/11/14	1	17	13	10	14	19	9	6	4	16	18	11	12	2	1	15	3	5	7	8
03/18/14	2	16	8	13	14	19	10	1	6	17	18	15	12	7	3	11	5	4	2	9
03/25/14	3	16	9	8	5	19	3	1	12	18	17	15	11	10	6	13	4	7	2	14
04/01/14	4	15	11	9	1	18	3	4	12	19	17	16	10	13	2	14	8	5	6	7
04/08/14	5	16	12	8	5	14	1	6	9	19	18	17	11	13	3	15	7	4	2	10
04/15/14	6	16	11	5	6	13	3	9	8	19	15	17	10	12	1	18	2	4	7	14
04/22/14	7	16	11	5	6	12	3	9	7	19	15	13	10	17	1	18	2	4	8	14
04/29/14	8	14	18	8	3	10	4	13	7	17	12	11	15	19	2	16	1	5	6	9
05/08/14	9	17	19	4	6	13	7	8	12	18	11	9	15	14	2	16	1	3	10	5
05/15/14	10	17	18	5	14	7	10	9	12	19	6	8	15	16	1	11	4	2	13	3
n/a	11
n/a	12
06/04/14	13	17	19	5	14	6	16	12	8	18	4	13	15	11	2	7	1	9	10	3
n/a	14
Average		16.09	13.55	7.27	8.00	13.64	6.27	7.09	8.82	18.09	13.73	13.18	12.36	12.18	2.18	14.00	3.46	4.73	6.64	8.73
All Site Avg.		15.54	13.86	9.11	6.42	15.68	5.25	7.80	6.97	17.82	13.76	12.67	10.14	12.92	2.05	15.24	5.32	4.28	6.43	8.20
+/-		+0.55	-0.31	-1.84	+1.58	-2.04	+1.02	-0.71	+1.85	+0.27	-0.03	+0.51	2.22	-0.74	+0.13	-1.24	-1.86	+0.45	+0.21	+0.53

• Consistency: Three dates missed.
  
• Bias: 2 teams with a variance above 2; the highest was -2.04, closest to average was +0.13.
  
• Fairness: I exclude weeks 1-5 due to both teams and raters getting settled.  Jumps of 5+ are: Chivas (7 pos. Wk 8), Columbus (8 pos. Wk 10), D.C. (6 pos. Wk 10), Houston (5 pos. Wk 9), Los Angeles (5 pos. Wk 9), New England (5 pos. Wk 10), Philadelphia (5 pos. Wk 8), Portland (5 pos. Wk 7, 5 pos. Wk 9), San Jose (5 pos. Wk 10), Seattle (5 pos. Wk 6), Toronto (5 pos. Wk 6), Vancouver (5 pos. Wk 8).
  

Black & Red United is a DC United blog attached to SB Nation.  It started out very consistent, but then dropped off; they stopped doing Power Rankings after Week 13.  One of the better sites for being bias free with only 2 teams over 2 points from average - but that is the "home" team (perhaps foreshadowing of the upswing that ensued).  As with many other Blog sites, Black & Red is above average with 12 teams making 13 jumps over 5 positions.  A bit better than Seattle in spreading out the jumps, but still a large amount compared to others.