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Power Ranking Averages Wk 23 - Close call for first.

MLS Power Ranking averages from 8 sites. Includes High / Low and overall season averages. Also evaluations of 2 sites used.

Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports


MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 23


"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14


Sites Used:

  • Allvoices (www.allvoices.com/users/zacwassink) - (No ranking Week 22-23)
  • Black & Red United (www.blackandredunited.com) - (No ranking Week 14-23) *POSSIBLE DEAD LIST
  • Dallas News Soccer Blog (www.soccerblog.dallasnews.com) - (No ranking Week 23)
  • Deseret News (www.deseretnews.com) - (No ranking Week 13-23)
  • ESPN (espn.go.com/sports/soccer/mls)
  • Fansided-MLS Multiplex (fansided.com/category/soccer/mls/mls-multiplex)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com).
  • Northbank-RSL (www.northbankrsl.com) - (No ranking Weeks 9-23) *DEAD LIST
  • Oregon Live (www.oregonlive.com/timbers)
  • ProSoccerTalk (prosoccertalk.nbcsports.com)
  • Reddit/MLS (www.reddit.com/r/MLS) - (No ranking Weeks 10-23) *DEAD LIST
  • Seattle Times Blog (blogs.seattletimes.com/soundersfc)
  • Soccer America (www.socceramerica.com)
  • Soccer by Ives (www.soccerbyives.net) - (No ranking Week 21-23)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • UTN Sports (www.utnsports.com/category/soccer) - (No ranking Weeks 6-23) *DEAD LIST



Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Week 23 Week 22 Week 21 Week 20 Week 19 Team
W23 Avg W22 Avg W21 Avg W20 Avg W19 Avg Low
High
Range
1
3
2
1
3
Kansas City 1.50
3.00
1.80
1.57
2.60
8
1
7
2
4
5
6
8
Salt Lake 1.67
3.43
5.20
6.71
8.20
3
1
2
3
5
6
5
6
Dallas 3.50
5.29
6.40
6.57
6.40
5
2
3
4
2
4
2
1
Seattle 4.00
2.26
4.00
1.71
1.00
7
1
6
5
1
1
4
5
Los Angeles 5.17
1.86
1.60
4.43
6.00
11
4
7
6
6
3
3
2
D.C. 5.33
6.29
3.20
3.00
2.40
6
3
3
7
7
9
9
7
Vancouver 7.50
7.29
9.40
8.57
6.80
10
6
4
8
8
7
8
4
Toronto 7.67
7.43
7.00
8.14
5.60
14
7
7
9
9
12
10
11
Portland 9.17
10.00
11.4
9.86
11.60
12
4
8
10
11
8
11
10
New York 10.33
10.71
8.80
11.29
10.20
15
8
7
11
14
13
11
14
Columbus 10.50
13.57
11.80
11.29
12.80
12
5
7
12
10
11
13
13
Philadelphia 11.33
10.14
11.20
11.71
12.40
13
9
4
13
13
9
7
9
Colorado 14.00
12.14
9.40
7.57
8.80
18
12
6
14
18
15
18
18
Houston 14.17
17.14
15.60
17.43
17.60
16
12
4
15
12
14
14
17
San Jose 14.67
11.71
13.40
14.14
16.80
16
13
3
16
16
18
17
16
New England 16.33
16.57
17.20
16.71
15.40
18
10
8
17
15
17
16
15
Chicago 16.83
15.14
16.60
16.00
14.60
19
16
3
18
16
16
15
11
Chivas 17.17
16.57
16.00
14.29
11.60
19
14
5
19
19
19
19
19
Montreal 18.83
19.00
19.00
18.86
18.60
19
13
6


Biggest Changes
Point Gaps High / Low Variance
Rise
Houston: +4
Columbus: +3

Fall
Los Angeles: -4
San Jose: -3

Largest
Philadelphia - 2.67 - Colorado
D.C. - 2.17 - Vancouver

Smallest
Los Angeles - 0.16 - D.C.
Kansas City - 0.17 - Salt Lake
Vancouver - 0.17 - Toronto
Colorado - 0.17 - Houston
2 positions: Salt Lake
3 positions: Dallas, D.C., Chicago, San Jose
4 positions: Vancouver, Philadelphia, Houston
5 positions: Chivas
6 positions: Seattle, Colorado, Montreal
7 positions: K.C., L.A., Toronto, N.Y., Columbus
8 positions: Portland, New England



Season Average Power Ranking

W23 W22 W21 W20 W19 W18 Team
W23 Avg W22 Avg W21 Avg W20 Avg W19 Avg W18 Avg W17 Avg W16 Avg
1
1
1
1
1
2
Seattle 3.31
3.27
3.32
3.29
3.37 3.50
3.65
3.82
2
2
2
2
2
1
Salt Lake
3.73
3.82
3.84
3.78
3.62
3.37
3.09
2.90
3
3
3
3
3
3
Kansas City 3.87
3.97
4.02
4.13
4.27
4.36
4.35
4.31
4
4
5
6
6
6
Los Angeles 6.70
6.76
7.00
7.27
7.42
7.50
7.55
7.45
5
5
4
4
4
4
Vancouver 7.01
6.99
6.98
6.85
6.76
6.76
6.73
6.97
6
6
6
5
5
5
Toronto 7.22
7.20
7.19
7.20
7.15
7.23
7.38
7.44
7
7
7
7
7
7
Dallas 7.49
7.67
7.79
7.86
7.92
8.01
7.99
7.95
8
8
8
8
8
8
Colorado 8.93
8.70
8.53
8.49
8.54
8.52
8.61
8.68
9
9
9
11
11
12
D.C. 9.49
9.67
9.84
10.17
10.54
11.00
11.50
12.00
10
10
10
10
10
10
Columbus 10.30
10.29
10.14
10.10
9.99
9.83
9.53
9.36
11
11
12
12
12
11
New York 10.70
10.71
10.71
10.81
10.78
10.82
10.91
10.90
12
12
11
9
9
9
New England 10.96
10.72
10.44
10.05
9.75
9.44
9.23
9.23
13
13
14
14
14
14
Portland 12.03
12.16
12.26
12.30
12.43
12.48
12.42
12.52
14
14
13
13
13
13
Houston 12.28
12.20
11.96
11.78
11.48
11.14
10.72
10.27
15
15
15
15
15
15
Philadelphia 12.58
12.63
12.75
12.83
12.89
12.92
12.84
12.75
16
16
16
16
16
16
San Jose 14.45
14.44
14.57
14.63
14.65
14.54
14.33
14.10
17
17
17
17
17
17
Chivas 15.26
15.17
15.10
15.06
15.10
15.30
15.54
15.60
18
18
18
18
18
18
Chicago 15.51
15.45
15.47
15.41
15.38
15.43
15.52
15.51
19
19
19
19
19
19
Montreal
17.85
17.81
17.75
17.69
17.63
17.57
17.56
17.55


Team High/Low
Best and worst placement for each team

Team
Weekly
Best
Weekly
Worst
Season
Best
Season
Worst
Chicago Fire
13
18
16
18
Chivas USA
11
19
13
18
Colorado Rapids
4
14
8
13
Columbus Crew
2
16
5
11
D.C. United
2
19
9
19
FC Dallas
1
14
3
11
Houston Dynamo
1
19
2
14
LA Galaxy
1
11
4
9
Montreal Impact
16
19
17
19
New England Revolution
1
18
9
17
New York Red Bulls
7
17
8
14
Philadelphia Union
3
18
8
15
Portland Timbers
3
18
4
15
Real Salt Lake
1
9
1
2
San Jose Earthquakes
10
18
14
17
Seattle Sounders
1
9
1
6
Sporting Kansas City
1
9
2
3
Toronto FC
2
12
4
12
Vancouver Whitecaps
2
11
4
9
  • In the weekly averages 7 teams have been ranked 1st (Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, New England, Salt Lake, Seattle, Kansas City), and 3 teams have placed last (Chivas, D.C., Montreal).
  • In the season averages 2 teams have been ranked 1st (Salt Lake, Seattle), and 2 teams last (D.C., Montreal).
  • Houston has the distinction of being the only team to be ranked both first and last in the weekly rankings, with New England close behind with first and 2nd to last.  D.C. has risen from last to 2nd.


Site Evaluations
I've broken the sites into 4 groups of 4 for easier publishing.

  • Group 1 - the "Big" sites (ESPN, SI, MLS, PST) - (weeks 16 & 17)
  • Group 2 - the "dead" sites (Northbank, Reddit, SBI, UTN) - (week 18)
  • Group 3 - Newspapers (Dallas, Deseret, Oregon, SA) - (week 20 & 21)
  • Group 4 - Fan blogs (*Allvoices, B&R, *Multiplex, Seattle) - (week 22 & 23)

To avoid making each article longer than necessary I've split the groups of 4 into 1 or 2 separate weeks.  Each site will be evaluated based on the Week 14 PR Averages above, I'll do a post-season evaluation for the latter half of the season.

Here's my evaluation criteria.

  • Consistency - Publish regularly.
  • Bias - Teams are rated equally, not on any obvious bias.
  • Fairness - Teams dropping / rising significantly due to one result is not a fair representation of overall performance.

Seattle Times Blog (blogs.seattletimes.com/soundersfc)

Pub Date WK CHI CUSA COL CLB DCU FCD HOU LAG Mon NER NYRB PHI POR RSL SJE SEA SKC TFC VAN
03/11/14 1 17 16 10 8 19 13 6 5 18 15 9 12 2 1 14 3 4 11 7
03/18/14 2 16 15 11 9 19 13 2 4 18 17 12 10 5 1 14 7 3 6 8
03/25/14 3 16 15 9 6 18 10 1 7 19 17 14 12 11 2 13 5 4 3 8
04/02/14 4 16 14 10 2 19 4 6 8 18 13 15 11 12 1 17 9 3 7 5
04/09/14 5 14 15 7 6 17 2 10 5 19 18 13 11 12 1 16 9 3 4 8
04/15/14 6 13 14 5 7 15 3 11 2 19 16 17 10 12 1 18 8 4 6 9
04/23/14 7 13 17 5 7 10 3 16 6 19 12 11 14 15 2 18 1 4 9 8
04/29/14 8 17 18 12 8 9 5 14 4 19 11 7 15 13 2 16 1 3 10 6
05/06/14 9 18 19 5 11 13 4 9 10 17 7 8 14 16 2 15 1 3 12 6
05/13/14 10 14 16 6 15 7 8 9 11 19 3 10 18 17 1 13 4 2 12 5
05/20/14 11 11 16 8 15 7 9 6 13 19 2 12 17 18 1 14 3 5 10 4
05/28/14 12 14 17 6 13 7 10 11 8 19 1 15 18 16 2 12 3 5 9 4
06/04/14 13 16 19 8 9 6 13 14 10 18 4 12 17 11 3 15 1 7 5 2
06/11/14 14 14 18 8 15 5 10 16 9 19 3 13 17 12 4 11 1 7 6 2
Average

15 16.53 7.87 9.60 12.53 8.07 9.33 7.00 18.53 9.73 11.47 13.87 11.60 1.93 14.47 4.13 3.87 8.00 6.47
All Site Avg.

15.54
13.86
9.11
6.42
15.68
5.25
7.80
6.97
17.82
13.76
12.67
10.14
12.92
2.05
15.24
5.32
4.28
6.43
8.20
+/-

-0.54
+2.67
-1.24
+3.18
-3.15
+2.82
+1.53
+0.03
+0.71
-4.03
-1.20
+3.73
-1.32
-0.12
-0.77
-1.19
-0.41
+1.57
-1.73

  • Consistency: No dates missed.
  • Bias: 6 teams with a variance over 2; highest was -4.03, closest to average was +0.03.
  • Fairness: I exclude weeks 1-5 due to both teams and raters getting settled. Jumps of 5+ include Colorado (7 pos. Wk 8, 7 pos. Wk 9), Columbus (6 pos. Wk 14), D.C. (5 pos. Wk 7, 6 pos. Wk 10), Houston (5 pos. Wk 7, 5 pos. Wk 9, 5 pos. Wk 12), Los Angeles (6 pos. Wk 9, 5 pos. Wk 12), New York (6 pos. Wk 7), Portland (5 pos. Wk 13), Seattle (7 pos. Wk 7).

During the first 14 weeks Seattle Times was among the best for consistency.  Over the World Cup break the author resigned and was only recently replaced, thus there was a 6 week gap with no rating.  The Bias rating is about average in number of teams above 2, but a bit higher than average with one team over 4 points difference.  In Fairness however Seattle Times is comparable to other blogs with just 8 teams making 13 jumps over 5 positions; but it does not succumb to the expected "home bias".  While the home team is rated below average, it isn't abnormally so.

Black & Red United Blog (blackandredunited.com/)

Pub Date WK CHI CUSA COL CLB DCU FCD HOU LAG Mon NER NYRB PHI POR RSL SJE SEA SKC TFC VAN
03/11/14 1 17 13 10 14 19 9 6 4 16 18 11 12 2 1 15 3 5 7 8
03/18/14 2 16 8 13 14 19 10 1 6 17 18 15 12 7 3 11 5 4 2 9
03/25/14 3 16 9 8 5 19 3 1 12 18 17 15 11 10 6 13 4 7 2 14
04/01/14 4 15 11 9 1 18 3 4 12 19 17 16 10 13 2 14 8 5 6 7
04/08/14 5 16 12 8 5 14 1 6 9 19 18 17 11 13 3 15 7 4 2 10
04/15/14 6 16 11 5 6 13 3 9 8 19 15 17 10 12 1 18 2 4 7 14
04/22/14 7 16 11 5 6 12 3 9 7 19 15 13 10 17 1 18 2 4 8 14
04/29/14 8 14 18 8 3 10 4 13 7 17 12 11 15 19 2 16 1 5 6 9
05/08/14 9 17 19 4 6 13 7 8 12 18 11 9 15 14 2 16 1 3 10 5
05/15/14 10 17 18 5 14 7 10 9 12 19 6 8 15 16 1 11 4 2 13 3
n/a 11


















n/a 12


















06/04/14 13 17 19 5 14 6 16 12 8 18 4 13 15 11 2 7 1 9 10 3
n/a 14


















Average

16.09 13.55 7.27 8.00 13.64 6.27 7.09 8.82 18.09 13.73 13.18 12.36 12.18 2.18 14.00 3.46 4.73 6.64 8.73
All Site Avg.

15.54
13.86
9.11
6.42
15.68
5.25
7.80
6.97
17.82
13.76
12.67
10.14
12.92
2.05
15.24
5.32
4.28
6.43
8.20
+/-

+0.55
-0.31
-1.84
+1.58
-2.04
+1.02
-0.71
+1.85
+0.27
-0.03
+0.51
2.22
-0.74
+0.13
-1.24
-1.86
+0.45
+0.21
+0.53

  • Consistency: Three dates missed.
  • Bias: 2 teams with a variance above 2; the highest was -2.04, closest to average was +0.13.
  • Fairness: I exclude weeks 1-5 due to both teams and raters getting settled.  Jumps of 5+ are: Chivas (7 pos. Wk 8), Columbus (8 pos. Wk 10), D.C. (6 pos. Wk 10), Houston (5 pos. Wk 9), Los Angeles (5 pos. Wk 9), New England (5 pos. Wk 10), Philadelphia (5 pos. Wk 8), Portland (5 pos. Wk 7, 5 pos. Wk 9), San Jose (5 pos. Wk 10), Seattle (5 pos. Wk 6), Toronto (5 pos. Wk 6), Vancouver (5 pos. Wk 8).

Black & Red United is a DC United blog attached to SB Nation.  It started out very consistent, but then dropped off; they stopped doing Power Rankings after Week 13.  One of the better sites for being bias free with only 2 teams over 2 points from average - but that is the "home" team (perhaps foreshadowing of the upswing that ensued).  As with many other Blog sites, Black & Red is above average with 12 teams making 13 jumps over 5 positions.  A bit better than Seattle in spreading out the jumps, but still a large amount compared to others.