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Power Ranking Averages Week 21 - LA 1st time on top

Power Ranking Avg's from 7 sites. Includes high / low and evaluation of 2 sites.

By Kreg Asay
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports


MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 21


"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that matchup. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14


Sites Used:

  • Allvoices (www.allvoices.com/users/zacwassink)
  • Black & Red United (www.blackandredunited.com) - (No ranking Week 14-21)
  • Dallas News Soccer Blog (www.soccerblog.dallasnews.com) - (No ranking Week 21)
  • Deseret News (www.deseretnews.com) - (No ranking Week 13-21)
  • ESPN (espn.go.com/sports/soccer/mls)
  • Fansided-MLS Multiplex (fansided.com/category/soccer/mls/mls-multiplex)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com).
  • Northbank-RSL (www.northbankrsl.com) - (No ranking Weeks 9-21)
  • Oregon Live (www.oregonlive.com/timbers)
  • ProSoccerTalk (prosoccertalk.nbcsports.com) - (No ranking Week 13-21)
  • Reddit/MLS (www.reddit.com/r/MLS) - (No ranking Weeks 10-21)
  • Seattle Times Blog (blogs.seattletimes.com/soundersfc) - (No ranking Week 16-21 *writer resigned)
  • Soccer America (www.socceramerica.com)
  • Soccer by Ives (www.soccerbyives.net) - (No ranking Week 21)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • UTN Sports (www.utnsports.com/category/soccer) - (No ranking Weeks 6-21)

If you know of a Power Ranking site that I have not included, please send it to me via this site or on reddit.com/r/MLS and I will consider using it.


Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.
There were no Power Rankings for week 15 due to the World Cup break.

Week 21 Week 20 Week 19 Week 18 Team
 		W21 Avg W20 Avg W19 Avg W18 Avg Low
 		High
 		Var
1
 4
 5
 5
 Los Angeles 1.60
 4.43
 6.00
 6.50
 3
 1
 2
2
 1
 3
 3
 Kansas City 1.80
 1.57 2.60
 4.50
 3
 1
 2
3
 3
 2
 2
 D.C. 3.20
 3.00
 2.40
 2.50
 6
 2
 4
4
 2
 1
 1
 Seattle 4.00
 1.71
 1.00
 1.00
 10
 3
 7
5
 6
 8
 8
 Salt Lake 5.20
 6.71
 8.20
 8.00
 8
 2
 6
6
 5
 6
 9
 Dallas 6.40
 6.57
 6.40
 8.25
 10
 3
 7
7
 8
 4
 4
 Toronto 7.00
 8.14
 5.60
 4.75
 15
 5
 10
8
 11
 10
 10
 New York 8.80
 11.29
 10.20
 9.25
 13
 6
 7
9
 7
 9
 6
 Colorado 9.40
 7.57
 8.80
 7.00
 17
 8
 9
9
 9
 7
 7
 Vancouver 9.40
 8.57
 6.80
 7.25
 13
 6
 7
11
 13
 13
 15
 Philadelphia 11.20
 11.71
 12.40
 14.25
 14
 7
 7
12
 10
 11
 13
 Portland 11.40
 9.86
 11.60
 13.50
 15
 9
 6
13
 11
 14
 16
 Columbus 11.80
 11.29
 12.80
 15.00
 15
 5
 10
14
 14
 17
 18
 San Jose 13.40
 14.14
 16.80
 18.00
 14
 8
 6
15
 18
 18
 19
 Houston 15.60
 17.43
 17.60
 18.25
 17
 13
 4
16
 15
 11
 11
 Chivas 16.00
 14.29
 11.60
 11.00
 18
 13
 5
17
 16
 15
 14
 Chicago 16.60
 16.00
 14.60
 13.75
 18
 12
 6
18
 17
 16
 12
 New England 17.20
 16.71
 15.40
 13.00
 18
 16
 2
19
 19
 19
 17
 Montreal 19.00
 18.86
 18.60
 17.75
 19
 19
 0


Biggest Changes
 		Point Gaps High / Low Variance
Rise
Los Angeles: +3
New York: +3
Houston: +3

Fall
Seattle: -2
Colorado: -2
Portland: -2
Columbus: -2
 Largest
San Jose - 2.20 Houston



Smallest
Colorado - 0.0 - Vancouver


 0 positions: Montreal
2 position: L.A., K.C., N.E.
4 positions: D.C., Houston
5 positions: Chivas
6 positions: Salt Lake, Portland. S.J., Chicago
7 positions: Seattle, Dallas, N.Y., Vancouver, Philadelphia
9 positions: Colorado
10 positions: Toronto, Columbus


Season Average Power Ranking

W21 W20 W19 W18 W17
 Team
 		W21 Avg W20 Avg W19 Avg W18 Avg W17 Avg W16 Avg W14 Avg W13 Avg
1
 1
 1
 2
 2
 Seattle 3.32
 3.29
 3.37 3.50
 3.65
 3.82
 3.88
 4.10
2
 2
 2
 1
 1
 Salt Lake
 3.84
 3.78
 3.62
 3.37
 3.09
 2.90
 2.29
 2.05
3
 3
 3
 3
 3
 Kansas City 4.02
 4.13
 4.27
 4.36
 4.35
 4.31
 4.62
 4.48
4
 4
 4
 4
 4
 Vancouver 6.98
 6.85
 6.76
 6.76
 6.73
 6.97
 6.62
 6.92
5
 6
 6
 6
 6
 Los Angeles 7.00
 7.27
 7.42
 7.50
 7.55
 7.45
 7.65
 7.52
6
 5
 5
 5
 5
 Toronto 7.19
 7.20
 7.15
 7.23
 7.38
 7.44
 7.59
 7.73
7
 7
 7
 7
 7
 Dallas 7.79
 7.86
 7.92
 8.01
 7.99
 7.95
 7.38
 7.07
8
 8
 8
 8
 8
 Colorado 8.53
 8.49
 8.54
 8.52
 8.61
 8.68
 8.62
 8.61
9
 11
 11
 12
 13
 D.C. 9.84
 10.17
 10.54
 11.00
 11.50
 12.00
 12.19
 12.76
10
 10
 10
 10
 10
 Columbus 10.14
 10.10
 9.99
 9.83
 9.53
 9.36
 8.78
 8.49
11
 9
 9
 9
 9
 New England 10.44
 10.05
 9.75
 9.44
 9.23
 9.23
 9.37
 9.70
12
 12
 12
 11
 12
 New York 10.71
 10.81
 10.78
 10.82
 10.91 10.90 11.54 11.67
13
 13
 13
 13
 11
 Houston 11.96
 11.78
 11.48
 11.14
 10.72
 10.27
 9.79
 9.31
14
 14
 14
 14
 14
 Portland 12.26
 12.30
 12.43
 12.48
 12.42
 12.52
 13.45
 13.64
15
 15
 15
 15
 15
 Philadelphia 12.75
 12.83
 12.89
 12.92
 12.84
 12.75
 12.90
 12.69
16
 16
 16
 16
 16
 San Jose 14.57
 14.63
 14.65
 14.54
 14.33
 14.10
 14.23
 14.35
17
 17
 17
 17
 18
 Chivas 15.10
 15.06
 15.10
 15.30
 15.54
 15.60
 15.29
 15.04
18
 18
 18
 18
 17
 Chicago 15.47
 15.41
 15.38
 15.43
 15.52
 15.51
 15.60
 15.55
19
 19
 19
 19
 19
 Montreal
 17.75
 17.69
 17.63
 17.57
 17.56
 17.55
 17.87
 17.90


Team High/Low
Best and worst placement for each team

Team
 		Weekly
Best 		Weekly
Worst 		Season
Best
 		Season
Worst
Chicago Fire
 13
 18
 16
 18
Chivas USA
 11
 19
 13
 18
Colorado Rapids
 4
 14
 8
 13
Columbus Crew
 2
 16
 5
 11
D.C. United
 2
 19
 9
 19
FC Dallas
 1
 14
 3
 11
Houston Dynamo
 1
 19
 2
 13
LA Galaxy
 1
 11
 5
 9
Montreal Impact
 16
 19
 17
 19
New England Revolution
 1
 18
 9
 17
New York Red Bulls
 7
 17
 8
 14
Philadelphia Union
 3
 18
 8
 15
Portland Timbers
 3
 18
 4
 15
Real Salt Lake
 1
 9
 1
 2
San Jose Earthquakes
 10
 18
 14
 17
Seattle Sounders
 1
 9
 1
 6
Sporting Kansas City
 1
 9
 2
 3
Toronto FC
 2
 12
 4
 12
Vancouver Whitecaps
 2
 11
 4
 9
  • In the weekly averages 7 teams have been ranked 1st (Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, New England, Salt Lake, Seattle, Kansas City), and 3 teams have placed last (Chivas, D.C., Montreal).
  • In the season averages 2 teams have been ranked 1st (Salt Lake, Seattle), and 2 teams last (D.C., Montreal).
  • Houston has the distinction of being the only team to be ranked both first and last in the weekly rankings, with New England close behind with first and 2nd to last.  D.C. has risen from last to 2nd.


Site Evaluations
I've broken the sites into 4 groups of 4 for easier publishing.

  • Group 1 - the "Big" sites (ESPN, SI, MLS, PST) - (weeks 16 & 17)
  • Group 2 - the "dead" sites (Northbank, Reddit, SBI, UTN) - (week 18)
  • Group 3 - Newspapers (Dallas, Deseret, *Oregon, *SA) - (*week 20)
  • Group 4 - Fan blogs (Allvoices, B&R, Multiplex, Seattle)

To avoid making each article longer than necessary I'll split the groups of 4 into 2 separate pieces over the next 8 weeks (or less since some sites have stopped).  Each site will be evaluated based on the Week 14 PR Averages above, I'll do a post-season evaluation for the latter half of the season.

Here's my evaluation criteria.

  • Consistency - Publish regularly.
  • Bias - Teams are rated equally, not on any obvious bias.
  • Fairness - Teams dropping / rising significantly due to one result is not a fair representation of overall performance.

Dallas News Soccer Blog (soccerblog.dallasnews.com)
This site could have gone into the 'blogs' group, just as the Seattle Times blog could have; but to keep the groups even I picked one for each.

Pub Date WK CHI CHV COL CLB DCU FCD HOU LAG MON NER NYRB PHI POR RSL SJE SEA SKC TFC VAN
03/13/14 2 (1) 18 14 16 11 19 12 5 6 17 15 8 10 4 1 13 2 3 9 7
03/18/14 3 (2) 16 13 15 11 19 10 3 5 18 17 14 6 12 1 9 4 8 2 7
03/25/14 4 (3) 15 12 13 6 19 7 3 5 18 17 14 11 16 1 10 4 8 2 9
04/02/14 4 16 11 13 2 19 5 7 3 17 10 14 12 18 1 13 9 6 8 4
04/08/14 5 18 12 10 6 14 3 8 2 19 13 16 11 17 1 15 9 5 4 7
04/16/14 6 17 13 5 8 14 6 11 2 19 10 16 12 18 1 15 4 3 7 9
04/22/14 7 17 11 6 8 12 5 13 2 19 10 15 14 18 1 16 4 3 7 9
05/03/14 8 19 14 6 12 10 7 16 3 17 9 11 15 18 2 13 1 4 8 5
05/06/14 9 19 16 4 13 11 9 12 5 17 7 8 18 15 2 14 1 3 10 6
05/14/14 10 17 14 7 16 10 8 11 5 18 4 12 19 15 1 13 3 2 9 6
05/20/14 11 14 12 7 17 11 10 9 6 18 3 13 19 16 1 15 2 4 8 5
05/27/14 12 16 11 5 15 10 9 13 4 18 3 17 19 14 1 12 2 8 7 6
06/06/14 13 14 15 4 13 9 12 16 3 19 2 17 18 11 5 10 1 8 7 6
n/a 14


















Average
16.62 12.92 8.55 10.62 13.62 7.92 9.77 3.92 18.00 9.23 13.46 14.15 14.77 1.46 12.92 3.54 5.00 6.77 6.62
All Site Average
15.54
 13.86
 9.11
 6.42
 15.68
 5.25
 7.80
 6.97
 17.82
 13.76
 12.67
 10.14
 12.92
 2.05
 15.24
 5.32
 4.28
 6.43
 8.20
+/-
+1.08
 -0.94
 -0.56
 +4.20
 -2.06
 +2.67
 +1.97
 -3.05
 +0.18
 -4.53
 +0.79
 +4.01
 +1.85
 -0.59
 -2.32
 -1.78
 +0.72
 +0.34
 -1.58
  • Consistency: One date missed (in this period, missed wk 14-19 in all) due to World Cup coverage.
  • Bias: 7 teams with a variance over 2; highest was +4.20 and closest to average was +0.18.
  • Fairness: I exclude weeks 1-5 due to both teams and raters getting settled.  The largest jumps after Wk5 were Colorado (5 pos. Wk6), Seattle (5 pos. Wk 6), That's only two jumps of 5 or more.
    • Colorado's 5 pt drop was due to losing 3-1 at home vs Chivas.
    • Seattle's rise is after a 3-2 win in Dallas.

Like many other sites Dallas News has quite a few large variances. as such they would average in terms of bias.  Fairness of ranking they have the least large jumps of any site evaluated so far, and while both could be a bit extreme, they are explainable.

Deseret News (deseretnews.com)
Deseret News published bi-weekly.

Pub. Date WK CHI CUSA COL CLB DCU FCD HOU LAG MON NER NYRB PHI POR RSL SJE SEA SKC TFC VAN
n/a 1


















03/20/14 2 12 9 17 6 18 15 1 14 16 19 8 5 13 3 10 11 7 2 4
n/a 3


















04/02/14 4 14 11 12 3 19 4 5 16 18 10 15 9 13 1 17 8 2 7 6
n/a 5


















04/15/14 6 13 12 6 4 11 3 16 10 19 14 17 9 15 2 18 1 5 7 8
n/a 7


















04/30/14 8 15 18 6 5 9 3 16 14 12 8 11 13 19 2 17 1 7 10 4
n/a 9


















n/a 10


















n/a 11


















05/29/14 12 16 18 7 9 8 10 13 6 19 3 11 17 12 2 14 1 4 15 5
n/a 13


















n/a 14


















Average
14 13.6 9.6 5.4 13 7 10.2 12 16.8 10.8 12.4 10.6 14.4 2 15.2 4.4 5 8.2 5.4
All Site Average
15.54
 13.86
 9.11
 6.42
 15.68
 5.25
 7.80
 6.97
 17.82
 13.76
 12.67
 10.14
 12.92
 2.05
 15.24
 5.32
 4.28
 6.43
 8.20
+/-
-1.54
 -0.26
 +0.49
 -1.02
 -2.68
 1.75
 2.40
 +5.03
 -1.02
 -2.96
 -0.27
 +0.46
 +1.48
 -0.05
 -0.04
 -0.92
 +0.72
 +1.77
 -2.80

  • Consistency: At first look it would appear that many dates were missed, but as this is a bi-weekly list only 2 dates were skipped (however no list has been published since Wk. 12).
  • Bias: 5 teams with a variance above 2; the highest was +5.03, closest to average was +0.04.
  • Fairness: With only 5 dates to evaluate, and a two weeks between ratings larger jumps are much more likely, and can generally be explained.

Deseret News had one team with a rather high variance, but so few scores to average that may be inaccurate; and they do have two of the closest variances to average of all sites.  I give them a bit of recognition for not being more biased toward their local team, being only -0.05 off the average.

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