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Week 21 MLS Power Ranking Averages from 15 sites

15 of 18 sites published rankings for week 21. A new leader rises atop the list!

By Kreg Asay
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports


MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 21

Three sites (SBI, NBC & Black/Red United) published after my article, averages and rankings for Wk 20 have been adjusted accordingly.  Of the 18 sites, 15 are included below.

As always, if you come across any that I have not included please send me a link and I'll add it to the list.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • Soccer by Ives (www.sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Soccer America (www.socceramerica.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • Seattle Times Blog (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • MLS GB (mlsbg.com/tag/power-rankings)
  • Black & Red United (www.blackandredunited.com)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Who Scored 'team rating' (whoscored.com/Regions/233/Tournaments/85/USA-Major-League-Soccer)
  • Reddit MLS subreddit (reddit/r/mls)
  • Soccer Information Network (soccerinformationnetwork.com) *No ranking for Wk 21
  • Soccer In America (soccer-in-america.com) *No ranking for Wk 21
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • NBC Sports Pro Soccer Talk (prosoccertalk.nbcsports.com) *No ranking for Wk 21
  • Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls)
  • Jeff Sagarin's MLS Rankings (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Squawka (http://www.squawka.com/football-team-rankings#performance-score#team-stats#us-major-league-soccer)

Dead List - I'll check it periodically just in case they run one, and their old ratings won't be removed.
* The Sports Network (sportsnetwork.com) *No ranking since 5-19-15, site offline 7-27

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  Each week I'll also be listing the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.


Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk 21 Wk 20
 		Wk 19 Wk 18 Wk 17 Team
 		W21 Avg W20 Avg W19 Avg W18 Avg W17 Avg Worst
 		Best
 		Range
1
 3
 4
 7
 9
 Dallas 1.54
 2.93
 4.27
 6.85
 9.00
 9
 1
 8
2
 1
 1
 1
 1
 Kansas City 2.54
 1.20
 1.40
 1.85
 2.56
 5
 1
 4
3
 2
 2
 2
 4
 Los Angeles 3.69
 2.20
 2.87
 2.92
 5.81
 7
 1
 6
4
 4
 3
 5
 2
 D.C. 4.00
 4.73
 4.07
 4.62
 2.63
 10
 1
 9
5
 5
 6
 6
 3
 Vancouver 4.69
 5.07
 6.00
 5.77
 2.94
 12
 2
 10
6
 6
 8
 10
 10
 New York RB 6.31
 5.87
 7.53
 9.77
 9.13
 11
 2
 9
7
 8
 9
 8
 7
 Toronto 7.62
 7.73
 8.47
 8.77
 6.50
 12
 5
 7
8
 7
 7
 3
 4
 Portland 7.69
 7.69
 6.53
 4.38
 5.81
 11
 2
 9
9
 10
 11
 11
 13
 Columbus 8.85
 8.47
 12.40
 9.69
 12.31
 11
 5
 6
10
 9
 5
 4
 6
 Seattle 10.54
 8.27
 5.40
 4.54
 6.38
 18
 6
 12
11
 12
 18
 15
 14
 Salt Lake 11.38
 12.60
 16.67
 14.54
 14.56
 16
 9
 7
12
 16
 15
 17
 16
 Montreal 13.54
 14.53
 14.60
 16.69
 15.56
 19
 9
 10
13
 18
 13
 16
 15
 Houston 13.62
 14.87
 13.87
 16.08
 15.44
 17
 8
 9
14
 17
 14
 14
 17
 New York FC 13.69
 14.73
 14.33
 14.15
 16.19
 18
 7
 11
15
 11
 10
 9
 8
 San Jose 14.92
 11.53
 10.53
 9.62
 7.44
 18
 11
 7
16
 14
 17
 13
 12
 New England 15.00
 13.33
 16.27
 13.62
 11.94
 20
 10
 10
17
 15
 19
 18
 20
 Colorado 15.77
 14.07
 17.13
 17.62
 18.88
 18
 6
 12
18
 13
 12
 12
 11
 Orlando 16.46
 13.00
 12.53
 11.31
 11.38
 20
 13
 7
19
 19
 16
 18
 19
 Philadelphia 18.77
 16.67
 15.87
 17.62
 17.13
 20
 13
 7
20
 20
 20
 20
 18
 Chicago 19.46
 18.47
 18.80
 19.15
 18.75
 20
 13
 7

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against.

Site
 		# Exact
 		1 off
 		2 off
 3+ off Furthest off
 		most bias vs
 		most bias for
Major League Soccer 7
 8
 3
 2
 ORL -5
 SJE +1.89
 MON -1.52
Soccer by Ives 5
 8
 3
 4
 RSL +5
 RSL +2.63
 NER -2.44
Soccer America 4
 7
 4
 5
 MON/SJE -5
 POR +2.63
 SJE -2.84
ESPN 4
 6
 5
 5
 NER -5, NYFC +5
 FCD +2.27
 NER -3.06
Seattle Times 4
 9
 3
 4
 MON -5, NYRB +5
 NYRB +2.77
 NER -1.97
MLS GB 5
 5
 5
 5
 SJE -4, NYFC +4
 TFC +2.89
 RSL -1.51
Black & Red United 5
 3
 4
 8
 SEA +6
 TFC +2.65
 SJE -2.50
Sports Illustrated 3
 6
 5
 6
 HOU +5
 NER +3.18
 VAN -2.29
The Mane Land 4
 6
 3
 7
 SEA +8
 VAN +1.81
 LAG -1.79
Who Scored 1
 5
 4
 10
 NYFC -6, DCU +6
 ORL +5.66
 COL -4.73
Reddit /r/MLS
 7
 7
 5
 1
 POR +3
 COL +1.17
 CLB -1.28
Soccer Info. Network NR
 NR NR NR NR DCU +1.60
 POR -2.35
Soccer In America NR NR NR NR NR NYFC +2.16
 VAN -1.40
MLS Fantasy Boss 5
 6
 5
 4
 NER -6
 TFC +4.15
 NER -4.11
Pro Soccer Talk NR NR NR NR NR RSL +2.90
 SJE -2.89
Bleacher Report
 4
 13
 0
 3
 NER -5
 NYFC +2.87
 VAN -2.01
Jeff Sagarin
 2
 5
 6
 7
 COL -11
 RSL +4.54
 COL -5.19
Squawka
 0
 7
 3
 10
 FCD +8
 NER +9.10
 POR -8.83
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with +1 as tiebreaker) MLS 7 exact and 8 one away; though a special mention to Bleacher Report for getting 17 teams within one!
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with +2 as tiebreaker) Squawka
  • Furthest Off: Jeff Sagarin with COL 11 places better than average.
  • Site with Worst Bias: Squawka for placing POR an average of 9.10 places better than their average.  (This is due in part to only 6 weeks of tracking, averages are improving with additional data points).
  • Sites with Least Bias - all with bias for/against less than 2:
    • 1st - Reddit /r/MLS
    • 2nd - The Mane Land
    • 3rd - MLS


Season Average Power Ranking

Team
2015
(run. avg)
 W21 Avg W20 Avg W19 Avg W18 Avg W17 Avg 2014 Avg 2013 Avg
 		2012 Avg
Seattle Sounders 3.41
 3.84
 3.63
 3.38
 3.26
 3.19
 4.04
 9.36
 4.39
FC Dallas 3.96
 4.64
 4.90
 5.30
 5.09
 4.98
 7.09
 8.78
 17.17
LA Galaxy 4.59
 5.48
 5.68
 5.87
 6.05
 6.23
 6.77
 5.14
 2.46
D.C. United
 5.03
 4.08
 4.21
 4.25
 4.27 4.25
 12.15
 7.29
 9.33
New York Red Bulls 6.14
 6.11
 6.25
 6.11
 6.03
 5.81
 11.07 6.38 7.23
Vancouver Whitecaps 6.89
 5.34
 5.43
 5.50
 5.47
 5.46
 7.40
 10.41
 7.87
Sporting Kansas City 9.05
 6.19
 6.53
 6.87
 7.16
 7.47
 4.45
 4.45
 3.09
Columbus Crew SC 9.20
 9.67
 9.93
 9.89
 9.75
 9.75
 8.97
 12.89
 9.46
Real Salt Lake 9.43
 11.10
 11.37
 11.30
 11.02
 10.81
 2.94 4.52 8.40
Toronto FC 10.00
 9.90
 10.18
 10.26
 10.33
 10.43
 7.47
 16.85
 10.96
New England Revolution 10.53
 9.73
 9.67
 9.33
 8.94
 8.66
 11.50 12.35 14.84
Portland Timbers 11.52
 10.00
 10.30
 10.55
 10.77
 11.15
 11.34
 5.73
 13.89
San Jose Earthquakes 11.81
 10.72
 10.65
 10.57
 10.59
 10.65
 14.44
 12.34
 4.86
Orlando City 12.34
 12.90
 12.97
 12.93
 12.94
 13.04
 -- -- --
New York City FC 12.98
 14.73
 15.09
 15.11
 15.15
 15.21
 -- -- --
Houston Dynamo
 13.07
 13.37
 13.64
 13.53
 13.52
 13.37
 9.48
 7.74
 6.29
Chicago Fire 17.04
 16.74
 16.93
 16.66
 16.55
 16.39
 15.61
 14.27
 13.07
Colorado Rapids 17.18
 16.83
 17.22
 17.24
 17.25
 17.22
 9.66
 9.79
 10.06
Philadelphia Union
 17.56
 17.78
 18.07
 18.06
 18.18
 18.22
 11.33
 10.53
 15.70
Montreal Impact
 18.11
 16.96
 17.46
 17.55
 17.70
 17.76
 17.67 5.32
 15.74


Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.

Team
 		Weekly
Best 		Weekly
Worst 		Best
Wk. Avg.
 		Worst
Wk. Avg.
Chicago Fire
 11
 20
 11.77 19.58
Colorado Rapids
 15
 20
 14.07
 19.25
Columbus Crew SC
 5
 14
 6.14
 14.20
D.C. United
 1
 10
 1.87
 9.57
FC Dallas
 1
 10 1.07
 9.40
Houston Dynamo
 7
 18
 8.73
 16.67
LA Galaxy
 1
 11
 1.67
 10.93
Montreal Impact
 15
 20
 13.54
 19.92
New England Revolution
 3
 17
 3.21
 16.79
New York City FC
 4
 20
 6.29
 20.00
New York Red Bulls
 1
 11
 1.27
 12.80
Orlando City
 7
 16
 7.58
 16.46
Philadelphia Union
 16
 20
 14.83
 19.69
Portland Timbers
 3
 17
 4.23
 16.57
Real Salt Lake
 5
 18
 4.62
 16.64
San Jose Earthquakes
 7
 19
 6.80
 18.73
Seattle Sounders
 1
 9
 1.00
 10.54
Sporting Kansas City
 1
 15
 1.20
 14.17
Toronto FC
 3
 17
 3.36
 16.62
Vancouver Whitecaps
 1
 15
 1.33
 13.73

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