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Week 18 Power Ranking Averages from 15 sites

No article last week due to vacation. A new team takes first, and a new team in last place.

By Kreg Asay


MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 18

There was no article for Week 17 as I was away on vacation (watching Kaka get his red card), but the numbers for last week are included below.  Of the 19 sites, 15 are included below.

As always, if you come across any that I have not included please send me a link and I'll add it to the list.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • Soccer by Ives (www.sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Soccer America (www.socceramerica.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • Seattle Times Blog (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • MLS GB (mlsbg.com/tag/power-rankings) *No ranking for Wk 18
  • Black & Red United (www.blackandredunited.com) *No ranking for Wk 18
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Who Scored 'team rating' (whoscored.com/Regions/233/Tournaments/85/USA-Major-League-Soccer)
  • Reddit MLS subreddit (reddit/r/mls)
  • Soccer Information Network (soccerinformationnetwork.com) *No ranking for Wk 18
  • Soccer In America (soccer-in-america.com)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • NBC Sports Pro Soccer Talk (prosoccertalk.nbcsports.com) *No ranking for Wk 18
  • Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls)
  • Jeff Sagarin's MLS Rankings (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • American Soccer Analysis (americansocceranalysis.com/power-rankings)
  • Squawka (http://www.squawka.com/football-team-rankings#performance-score#team-stats#us-major-league-soccer)

"Potentially Dead List"
* The Sports Network (sportsnetwork.com) *No ranking since 5-19-15

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  Each week I'll also be listing the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.


Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk 18 Wk 17 Wk 16 Wk 15 Wk 14 Team
 		W18 Avg W17 Avg W16 Avg W15 Avg W14 Avg Worst
 		Best
 		Range
1
 1
 3
 2
 2
 Kansas City 1.85
 2.56
 3.47
 2.15
 1.93
 6
 1
 5
2
 4
 6
 10
 10
 Los Angeles 2.92
 5.81
 6.47
 9.54
 9.67
 7
 1
 6
3
 4
 5
 7
 8
 Portland 4.38
 5.81
 5.20
 6.92
 7.67
 10
 1
 9
4
 6
 1
 1
 1
 Seattle 4.54
 6.38
 2.33
 1.15
 1.60
 8
 1
 7
5
 2
 2
 3
 3
 D.C. 4.62
 2.63
 2.93
 4.54
 3.87
 20
 1
 19
6
 3
 4
 4
 4
 Vancouver 5.77
 2.94
 3.87
 4.92
 5.00
 12
 3
 9
7
 9
 10
 8
 6
 Dallas 6.85
 9.00
 9.13
 8.23
 6.20
 13
 2
 11
8
 7
 7
 5
 5
 Toronto 8.77
 6.50
 7.87
 5.38
 5.47
 14
 2
 12
9
 8
 9
 11
 11
 San Jose 9.62
 7.44
 8.53
 10.77
 10.73
 19
 3
 16
10
 10
 11
 9
 9
 New York RB 9.77
 9.13
 12.60
 9.08
 8.73
 14
 2
 12
11
 13
 13
 14
 14
 Columbus 9.69
 12.31
 13.93
 13.31
 13.27
 13
 4
 9
12
 11
 12
 12
 13
 Orlando 11.31
 11.38
 12.67
 11.69
 13.07
 17
 10
 7
13
 12
 8
 6
 7
 New England 13.62
 11.94
 8.13
 6.00
 7.20
 19
 6
 13
14
 17
 18
 17
 20
 New York FC 14.15
 16.19
 14.73
 17.15
 19.40
 18
 10
 8
15
 14
 14
 15
 16
 Salt Lake 14.54
 14.56
 14.07
 15.38
 15.53
 17
 11
 6
16
 15
 14
 13
 12
 Houston 16.08
 15.44
 14.07
 11.85
 11.47
 19
 13
 6
17
 16
 16
 16
 15
 Montreal 16.69
 15.56
 14.53
 17.08
 15.40
 19
 12
 7
18
 20
 17
 18
 18
 Colorado 17.62
 18.88
 17.67
 17.69
 17.93
 20
 13
 7
18
 19
 20
 18
 19
 Philadelphia 17.62
 17.13
 19.33
 17.69
 18.07
 20
 9
 11
20
 18
 19
 20
 17
 Chicago 19.15
 18.75
 18.13
 18.23
 16.93
 20
 14
 6

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against.

Site
 		# Exact
 		1 off
 		2 off
 3+ off Furthest off
 		most bias vs
 		most bias for
Major League Soccer 7
 7
 5
 1
 DCU -4
 SJE +1.99
 MON -1.49
Soccer by Ives 9
 9
 2
 0
 ORL/POR +2
 SJE +2.74
 NER -2.61
Soccer America 4
 3
 6
 7
 NER +5, FCD/MON -5
 POR +3.18
 SJE -2.64
ESPN 5
 4
 7
 4
 NER -7
 FCD +2.02
 NER -2.57
Seattle Times 6
 7
 4
 3
 NYRB +4
 SJE +2.76
 NER -2.00
MLS GB NA NA NA NA NA TFC +3.34
 RSL -1.52
Black & Red United NA NA NA NA NA TFC +2.32
 SJE -2.36
Sports Illustrated 7
 5
 1
 7
 NYFC -4
 NER +3.39
 VAN -2.53
The Mane Land 6
 4
 6
 4
 NYRB/SEA +4, RSL -4
 VAN +1.64
 LAG -1.94
Who Scored 3
 2
 2
 13
 NYRB -8
 ORL +5.73
 COL -5.03
Reddit /r/MLS
 8
 5
 5
 2
 CLB/DCU -3
 COL +1.25
 CLB -1.31
The Sports Network
 NA
 NA NA NA NA TFC +5.05
 RSL -3.65
Soccer Info. Network NA NA NA NA NA DCU +1.50
 POR -2.89
Soccer In America 6
 10
 2
 2
 LAG +4
 NYFC +1.60
 VAN -1.66
MLS Fantasy Boss 3
 8
 4
 5
 TFC +6
 TFC +4.17
 LAG -4.16
Pro Soccer Talk NA NA NA NA NA SKC +2.64
 VAN -3.27
Bleacher Report
 5
 5
 8
 2
 PHI -3
 LAG +3.12
 VAN -2.22
Jeff Sagarin
 5
 4
 5
 6
 SJE -6
 RSL +5.11
 SJE -4.84
Amer. Soccer Analysis
 0
 4
 2
 14
 DCU +15
 DCU +15.56
 TFC -9.00
Squawka
 3
 5
 5
 7
 NER/VAN +6
 NER +8.73
 POR -9.77
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with +1 as tiebreaker) Soccer By Ives
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with +2 as tiebreaker) American Soccer Analysis
  • Furthest Off: American Soccer Analysis with DCU 15 places higher than average.
  • Site with Worst Bias: American Soccer Analysis for placing DCU an average of 15.56 places worse than their average.  Due to their practice of using past season results for trends, it would seem that DCU's ranking isn't likely to improve greatly.
  • Site with Least Bias: MLS, Reddit /r/MLS, The Mane Land and Soccer In America, all of which have for/against less than 2 places from average.


Season Average Power Ranking

Team
2015
(run. avg)
 W18 Avg W17 Avg W16 Avg W15 Avg W14 Avg 2014 Avg 2013 Avg
 		2012 Avg
Seattle Sounders 3.45
 3.26
 3.19
 2.99
 3.05
 3.18
 4.04
 9.36
 4.39
FC Dallas 3.82
 5.09
 4.98
 4.74
 4.48
 4.22
 7.09
 8.78
 17.17
LA Galaxy 4.43
 6.05
 6.23
 6.25
 6.24
 6.00
 6.77
 5.14
 2.46
D.C. United
 5.21
 4.27
 4.25
 4.35
 4.52
 4.52
 12.15
 7.29
 9.33
New York Red Bulls 6.10
 6.03
 5.81
 5.61
 5.15
 4.87
 11.07 6.38 7.23
Vancouver Whitecaps 7.15
 5.47
 5.46
 5.62
 5.77
 5.83
 7.40
 10.41
 7.87
Columbus Crew SC 9.12
 9.75
 9.75
 9.59
 9.30
 9.01
 8.97
 12.89
 9.46
Real Salt Lake 9.27
 11.02
 10.81
 10.58
 10.37
 10.02
 2.94 4.52 8.40
Sporting Kansas City 9.52
 7.16
 7.47
 7.79
 8.06
 8.48
 4.45
 4.45
 3.09
Toronto FC 9.97
 10.33
 10.43
 10.68
 10.82
 11.21
 7.47
 16.85
 10.96
New England Revolution 10.89
 8.94
 8.66
 8.45
 8.48
 8.66 11.50 12.35 14.84
Portland Timbers 11.81
 10.77
 11.15
 11.48
 11.85
 12.21
 11.34
 5.73
 13.89
San Jose Earthquakes 11.91
 10.59
 10.65
 10.85
 10.96
 10.97
 14.44
 12.34
 4.86
Orlando City 12.07
 12.94
 13.04
 13.14
 13.15
 13.25 -- -- --
New York City FC 12.59
 15.15
 15.21
 15.14
 15.17
 15.03
 -- -- --
Houston Dynamo
 12.91
 13.52
 13.37
 13.25
 13.19
 13.29
 9.48
 7.74
 6.29
Chicago Fire 17.09
 16.55
 16.39
 16.24
 16.11
 15.96
 15.61
 14.27
 13.07
Colorado Rapids 17.11
 17.25
 17.22
 17.12
 17.08
 17.04
 9.66
 9.79
 10.06
Philadelphia Union
 17.42
 18.18
 18.22
 18.28
 18.17
 18.21
 11.33
 10.53
 15.70
Montreal Impact
 18.19
 17.70
 17.76
 17.90
 18.11
 18.19
 17.67 5.32
 15.74


Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.

Team
 		Weekly
Best 		Weekly
Worst 		Best
Wk. Avg.
 		Worst
Wk. Avg.
Chicago Fire
 11
 20
 11.77 19.93
Colorado Rapids
 15
 19
 15.29
 19.17
Columbus Crew SC
 5
 14
 6.38
 13.31
D.C. United
 1
 10
 2.21
 10.40
FC Dallas
 1
 10 1.13
 9.13
Houston Dynamo
 7
 17
 8.38
 16.67
LA Galaxy
 1
 11
 1.69
 10.79
Montreal Impact
 15
 20
 14.53
 19.92
New England Revolution
 3
 17
 3.21
 15.69
New York City FC
 4
 20
 6.69
 20.00
New York Red Bulls
 1
 11
 1.38
 12.60
Orlando City
 7
 16
 7.31
 16.00
Philadelphia Union
 16
 20
 14.62
 19.69
Portland Timbers
 3
 17
 4.38
 16.57
Real Salt Lake
 5
 16
 4.69
 15.53
San Jose Earthquakes
 7
 19
 7.33
 18.23
Seattle Sounders
 1
 6
 1.06
 6.31
Sporting Kansas City
 1
 15
 1.85
 14.53
Toronto FC
 3
 17
 3.31
 17.27
Vancouver Whitecaps
 1
 15
 1.33
 13.85

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