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Week 32 Power Ranking Averages

The Penultimate ranking for 2016 had only 15 of 20 sites. Looks like several rankers are still on the International Break.

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports


Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking) *No ranking for Wk 32
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls) *No ranking for Wk 32
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) *No ranking for Wk 32
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer) *No ranking for Wk 32
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)
  • Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)
  • CSN Chicago (csnchicago.com/chicago-fire - bi-weekly) *No ranking for Wk 32
  • Inonit.com (inotit.com)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!


Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk32 Wk30 Wk29 Team
Wk32
Avg
Wk30
Avg
Wk29
Avg
Worst
Best
1
2
3
New York RB 1.69
1.93
2.72
3
1
2
1
1
Dallas 1.77
1.79
1.89
5
1
3
4
6
Colorado 3.69
4.07
5.22
7
2
4
8
11
D. C. U. 4.85
7.00
10.56
9
2
5
5
2
Toronto 5.23
5.07
2.17
9
3
6
3
5
New York FC 5.46
3.71
4.83
7
4
7
6
4
Los Angeles 5.62
6.29
4.44
8
1
8
7
9
Seattle 8.31
6.64
9.11
13
5
9
9
13
Montreal 10.08
10.43
14.11
13
7
10
9
10
Philadelphia 12.85
10.43
9.50
17
8
11
12
7
Kansas City 10.54
11.21
8.50
13
8
12
11
7
Salt Lake 10.77
11.00
8.50
14
7
13
13
12
Portland 11.15
13.43
11.44
13
8
14
13
15
New England 14.85
13.43
15.11
19
11
15
15
16
Columbus 15.46
14.86
15.22
18
11
16
19
19
Orlando 15.69
18.36
17.83
19
13
17
16
17
San Jose 17.00
16.00
17.00
20
13
18
17
14
Houston 17.54
16.14
14.89
19
15
19
18
18
Vancouver 18.38
18.36
17.28
20
15
20
20
20
Chicago 19.23
19.86
19.78
20
15
  • Largest Rise: D.C. +4
  • Largest Fall: NYCFC -3

Analytic Site Average
For those interested in seeing how the Analytic Sites differ, here's their averages alone.

Wk32 Wk31 Wk30 Wk29
Team
Wk32
Avg
Wk31
Avg
Wk30
Avg
Wk29
Avg
Difference
1
1
1
1
New York RB 1.40
1.60
1.33
2.00
0
2
2
2
3
Dallas 3.20
3.20
3.17
2.71
0
3
4
3
4
Los Angeles 3.60
4.40
4.50
3.71
-4
4
7
7
9
D. C. U. 4.80
6.40
5.67
8.57
0
5
6
5
2
Toronto 5.00
5.20
5.17
2.57
0
5
3
5
5
Colorado 5.00
4.20
5.17
5.43
+2
7
5
4
6
New York FC 5.60
4.80
4.67
6.29
+1
8
8
8
8
Seattle 8.80
7.20
7.17
8.56
0
9
10
11
7
Kansas City 9.40
10.20
10.33
8.29
-2
10
11
10
15
Montreal 10.60
10.40
10.17
14.71
+1
11
9
9
10
Philadelphia 11.60
9.60
9.83
9.86
+1
11
13
12
12
Portland 11.60
12.40
12.50
11.43
-2
13
12
13
11
Salt Lake 11.80
12.20
12.83
11.00
+1
14
14
15
14
Columbus 14.00
14.20
14.67
14.14
-1
15
18
18
18
Orlando 14.80
17.40
17.83
17.43
-1
16
15
16
16
San Jose 16.80
15.40
16.00
16.00
-1
17
16
14
13
Houston 17.00
16.60
14.33
13.43
-1
18
17
17
19
New England 17.40
17.00
16.67
17.71
+4
19
19
19
17
Vancouver 18.20
18.20
18.50
17.29
0
20
20
20
20
Chicago 19.00
19.20
19.33
18.57
0

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
#
Exact
1
off
2
off
3
off
4
off
5+
off
Worst
most
bias vs
most
bias for
Who Scored
5
5
4
2
1
3
CHI
VAN -5.36
CHI +5.35
Jeff Sagarin
2
7
7
2
0
2
LAG
NYFC -2.45
HOU +2.52
Sports Club Stats
7
8
3
2
0
0
CLB/DCU
POR -4.20 NYFC +2.31
Sports Illustrated
11
4
0
3
1
1
CHI
COL -1.94 SEA +2.85
ESPN
3
11
4
1
1
0
MTL
LAG -2.52
POR +2.66
Soccer America
4
6
7
1
1
1
PHI
NYRB -1.08
CHI +1.57
Major League Soccer
10
7
2
1
0
0
POR
LAG -1.67
TFC +1.86
The Mane Land
4
9
3
1
1
2
PHI/POR
PHI -2.42
VAN +2.33
Soccer By Ives
6
7
3
3
1
0
RSL
DCU -1.33
SEA +1.89
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes NA






RSL -3.06
CLB +2.85
Reddit r/MLS
NA





DCU -2.04
VAN +1.21
MLS Fantasy Boss
NA





PHI -3.60
POR +6.01
The Score
4
8
5
0
1
2
DCU/RSL
COL -1.67
VAN +2.22
Power Rankings & More
6
9
4
1
0
0
PHI
TFC -2.01
NER +2.02
Seattle Times
7
6
4
2
1
0
RSL
NYRB -1.05
VAN +1.79
Hot Footy
NA





NYRB -2.38
RSL +1.38
Sportify
2
3
5
7
2
1
PHI
PHI -3.39
NYRB +3.72
Black & Red United
4
8
4
2
2
0
PHI/SJE
TFC -2.93
COL +3.19
CSN Chicago
NA






HOU -1.53
RSL +2.96
In On It
5
4
8
1
0
2
LAG
NER -4.20
NYRB +5.31
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Sports Illustrated with 11 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 3 off by 5.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Who Scored with VAN 5.36 from avg.
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 6.01 places from avg.

5 Year Average
Season ending power rank averaged over the last 5 years (2 years for ORL & NYCFC).

Team
5 Yr
Avg
Wk
30
Wk
29
Wk
28
Wk
27
Wk
26
LA Galaxy 5.40
5.38
5.36
5.36
5.36
5.37
Sporting Kansas City 5.73
5.71
5.70
5.70
5.69
5.68
Real Salt Lake 6.34
6.28
6.25
6.24
6.23
6.22
New York Red Bulls 7.03
7.12
7.17
7.21
7.25
7.29
FC Dallas 7.04
7.05
7.05
7.06
7.07
7.07
Seattle Sounders 7.47
7.55
7.60
7.64
7.66
7.68
Vancouver Whitecaps 9.19
9.12
9.09
9.06
9.02
9.00
San Jose Earthquakes 10.41
10.34
10.30
10.26
10.22
10.17
D.C. United 10.44
10.56
10.61
10.64
10.66
10.68
Portland Timbers 10.50
10.47
10.44
10.42
10.43
10.43
Colorado Rapids 11.39
11.41
11.42
11.42
11.42
11.43
Houston Dynamo 11.49
11.48
11.48
11.49
11.49
11.48
Montreal Impact 11.83
11.79
11.77
11.72
11.67
11.64
Columbus Crew SC 11.84
11.86
11.87
11.87
11.86
11.84
Toronto FC 11.93
11.94
11.95
11.98
12.01
12.05
New England Revolution 12.39
12.38
12.40
12.40
12.42
12.42
New York City FC 12.53
12.68
12.78
12.88
12.96
13.05
Philadelphia Union 12.82
12.78
12.77
12.76
12.75
12.74
Orlando City 13.64
13.53
13.43
13.34
13.28
13.28
Chicago Fire 14.85
14.84
14.84
14.83
14.82
14.82


FIFA-esque Power Ranking

The Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.

Team
Wk
32
Wk
30
Week
29
Week
28
Week
27
Week
26
Week
25
LA Galaxy 83.64
83.73
83.82
83.85
83.82
83.79
83.81
FC Dallas 80.78
80.77
80.73
80.70
80.67
80.65
80.59
Sporting Kansas City 77.93
78.03
78.10
78.09
78.13
78.18
78.20
Real Salt Lake 75.63
75.92
76.07
76.14
76.21
76.22
76.15
New York Red Bulls 75.29
74.84
74.60
74.38
74.19
73.99
73.75
Seattle Sounders 72.47
72.07
71.81
71.62
71.49
71.41
71.30
Vancouver Whitecaps 68.45
68.94
68.94
69.09
69.26
69.40
69.62
Portland Timbers 66.19
66.35
66.48
66.56
66.51
66.52
66.60
Toronto FC 65.39
65.27
65.27
65.11
64.95
64.76
64.64
D.C. United 64.45
63.88
63.62
63.47
63.37
63.26
63.14
New York City FC * 63.00
62.70
62.49
62.30
62.13
61.96
61.71
Colorado Rapids 62.26
62.16
62.11
62.11
62.08
62.03
62.07
San Jose Earthquakes 61.00
61.35
61.54
61.78
61.97
62.20
62.38
Orlando City * 60.65
60.87
61.06
61.24
61.36
61.38
61.45
Montreal Impact 59.82
60.02
60.13
60.38
60.62
60.77
60.87
Columbus Crew SC 59.28
59.18
59.12
59.09
59.14
59.26
59.32
New England Revolution 58.75
58.79
58.72
58.70
58.61
58.63
58.73
Philadelphia Union 57.31
57.48
57.55
57.59
57.64
57.67
57.69
Houston Dynamo 56.06
56.09
56.09
56.03
56.05
56.10
56.18
Chicago Fire 44.49
44.54
44.58
44.62
44.66
44.65
44.60

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)