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Week 32 Power Ranking Averages

The Penultimate ranking for 2016 had only 15 of 20 sites. Looks like several rankers are still on the International Break.

By Kreg Asay
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports


Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking) *No ranking for Wk 32
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls) *No ranking for Wk 32
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) *No ranking for Wk 32
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer) *No ranking for Wk 32
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)
  • Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)
  • CSN Chicago (csnchicago.com/chicago-fire - bi-weekly) *No ranking for Wk 32
  • Inonit.com (inotit.com)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk32 Wk30 Wk29 Team
 Wk32
Avg		 Wk30
Avg		 Wk29
Avg		 Worst
 Best
1
 2
 3
 New York RB 1.69
 1.93
 2.72
 3
 1
2
 1
 1
 Dallas 1.77
 1.79
 1.89
 5
 1
3
 4
 6
 Colorado 3.69
 4.07
 5.22
 7
 2
4
 8
 11
 D. C. U. 4.85
 7.00
 10.56
 9
 2
5
 5
 2
 Toronto 5.23
 5.07
 2.17
 9
 3
6
 3
 5
 New York FC 5.46
 3.71
 4.83
 7
 4
7
 6
 4
 Los Angeles 5.62
 6.29
 4.44
 8
 1
8
 7
 9
 Seattle 8.31
 6.64
 9.11
 13
 5
9
 9
 13
 Montreal 10.08
 10.43
 14.11
 13
 7
10
 9
 10
 Philadelphia 12.85
 10.43
 9.50
 17
 8
11
 12
 7
 Kansas City 10.54
 11.21
 8.50
 13
 8
12
 11
 7
 Salt Lake 10.77
 11.00
 8.50
 14
 7
13
 13
 12
 Portland 11.15
 13.43
 11.44
 13
 8
14
 13
 15
 New England 14.85
 13.43
 15.11
 19
 11
15
 15
 16
 Columbus 15.46
 14.86
 15.22
 18
 11
16
 19
 19
 Orlando 15.69
 18.36
 17.83
 19
 13
17
 16
 17
 San Jose 17.00
 16.00
 17.00
 20
 13
18
 17
 14
 Houston 17.54
 16.14
 14.89
 19
 15
19
 18
 18
 Vancouver 18.38
 18.36
 17.28
 20
 15
20
 20
 20
 Chicago 19.23
 19.86
 19.78
 20
 15
  • Largest Rise: D.C. +4
  • Largest Fall: NYCFC -3

Analytic Site Average
For those interested in seeing how the Analytic Sites differ, here's their averages alone.

Wk32 Wk31 Wk30 Wk29
 Team
 Wk32
Avg		 Wk31
Avg
 Wk30
Avg		 Wk29
Avg		 Difference
1
 1
 1
 1
 New York RB 1.40
 1.60
 1.33
 2.00
 0
2
 2
 2
 3
 Dallas 3.20
 3.20
 3.17
 2.71
 0
3
 4
 3
 4
 Los Angeles 3.60
 4.40
 4.50
 3.71
 -4
4
 7
 7
 9
 D. C. U. 4.80
 6.40
 5.67
 8.57
 0
5
 6
 5
 2
 Toronto 5.00
 5.20
 5.17
 2.57
 0
5
 3
 5
 5
 Colorado 5.00
 4.20
 5.17
 5.43
 +2
7
 5
 4
 6
 New York FC 5.60
 4.80
 4.67
 6.29
 +1
8
 8
 8
 8
 Seattle 8.80
 7.20
 7.17
 8.56
 0
9
 10
 11
 7
 Kansas City 9.40
 10.20
 10.33
 8.29
 -2
10
 11
 10
 15
 Montreal 10.60
 10.40
 10.17
 14.71
 +1
11
 9
 9
 10
 Philadelphia 11.60
 9.60
 9.83
 9.86
 +1
11
 13
 12
 12
 Portland 11.60
 12.40
 12.50
 11.43
 -2
13
 12
 13
 11
 Salt Lake 11.80
 12.20
 12.83
 11.00
 +1
14
 14
 15
 14
 Columbus 14.00
 14.20
 14.67
 14.14
 -1
15
 18
 18
 18
 Orlando 14.80
 17.40
 17.83
 17.43
 -1
16
 15
 16
 16
 San Jose 16.80
 15.40
 16.00
 16.00
 -1
17
 16
 14
 13
 Houston 17.00
 16.60
 14.33
 13.43
 -1
18
 17
 17
 19
 New England 17.40
 17.00
 16.67
 17.71
 +4
19
 19
 19
 17
 Vancouver 18.20
 18.20
 18.50
 17.29
 0
20
 20
 20
 20
 Chicago 19.00
 19.20
 19.33
 18.57
 0

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 #
Exact
 1
off
 2
off
 3
off
 4
off
 5+
off
 Worst
 most
bias vs
 most
bias for
Who Scored
 5
 5
 4
 2
 1
 3
 CHI
 VAN -5.36
 CHI +5.35
Jeff Sagarin
 2
 7
 7
 2
 0
 2
 LAG
 NYFC -2.45
 HOU +2.52
Sports Club Stats
 7
 8
 3
 2
 0
 0
 CLB/DCU
 POR -4.20 NYFC +2.31
Sports Illustrated
 11
 4
 0
 3
 1
 1
 CHI
 COL -1.94 SEA +2.85
ESPN
 3
 11
 4
 1
 1
 0
 MTL
 LAG -2.52
 POR +2.66
Soccer America
 4
 6
 7
 1
 1
 1
 PHI
 NYRB -1.08
 CHI +1.57
Major League Soccer
 10
 7
 2
 1
 0
 0
 POR
 LAG -1.67
 TFC +1.86
The Mane Land
 4
 9
 3
 1
 1
 2
 PHI/POR
 PHI -2.42
 VAN +2.33
Soccer By Ives
 6
 7
 3
 3
 1
 0
 RSL
 DCU -1.33
 SEA +1.89
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes NA





RSL -3.06
 CLB +2.85
Reddit r/MLS
 NA





DCU -2.04
 VAN +1.21
MLS Fantasy Boss
 NA





PHI -3.60
 POR +6.01
The Score
 4
 8
 5
 0
 1
 2
 DCU/RSL
 COL -1.67
 VAN +2.22
Power Rankings & More
 6
 9
 4
 1
 0
 0
 PHI
 TFC -2.01
 NER +2.02
Seattle Times
 7
 6
 4
 2
 1
 0
 RSL
 NYRB -1.05
 VAN +1.79
Hot Footy
 NA





NYRB -2.38
 RSL +1.38
Sportify
 2
 3
 5
 7
 2
 1
 PHI
 PHI -3.39
 NYRB +3.72
Black & Red United
 4
 8
 4
 2
 2
 0
 PHI/SJE
 TFC -2.93
 COL +3.19
CSN Chicago
 NA





HOU -1.53
 RSL +2.96
In On It
 5
 4
 8
 1
 0
 2
 LAG
 NER -4.20
 NYRB +5.31
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Sports Illustrated with 11 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 3 off by 5.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Who Scored with VAN 5.36 from avg.
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 6.01 places from avg.

5 Year Average
Season ending power rank averaged over the last 5 years (2 years for ORL & NYCFC).

Team
 		5 Yr
Avg		 Wk
30		 Wk
29 		Wk
28 		Wk
27 		Wk
26
LA Galaxy 5.40
 5.38
 5.36
 5.36
 5.36
 5.37
Sporting Kansas City 5.73
 5.71
 5.70
 5.70
 5.69
 5.68
Real Salt Lake 6.34
 6.28
 6.25
 6.24
 6.23
 6.22
New York Red Bulls 7.03
 7.12
 7.17
 7.21
 7.25
 7.29
FC Dallas 7.04
 7.05
 7.05
 7.06
 7.07
 7.07
Seattle Sounders 7.47
 7.55
 7.60
 7.64
 7.66
 7.68
Vancouver Whitecaps 9.19
 9.12
 9.09
 9.06
 9.02
 9.00
San Jose Earthquakes 10.41
 10.34
 10.30
 10.26
 10.22
 10.17
D.C. United 10.44
 10.56
 10.61
 10.64
 10.66
 10.68
Portland Timbers 10.50
 10.47
 10.44
 10.42
 10.43
 10.43
Colorado Rapids 11.39
 11.41
 11.42
 11.42
 11.42
 11.43
Houston Dynamo 11.49
 11.48
 11.48
 11.49
 11.49
 11.48
Montreal Impact 11.83
 11.79
 11.77
 11.72
 11.67
 11.64
Columbus Crew SC 11.84
 11.86
 11.87
 11.87
 11.86
 11.84
Toronto FC 11.93
 11.94
 11.95
 11.98
 12.01
 12.05
New England Revolution 12.39
 12.38
 12.40
 12.40
 12.42
 12.42
New York City FC 12.53
 12.68
 12.78
 12.88
 12.96
 13.05
Philadelphia Union 12.82
 12.78
 12.77
 12.76
 12.75
 12.74
Orlando City 13.64
 13.53
 13.43
 13.34
 13.28
 13.28
Chicago Fire 14.85
 14.84
 14.84
 14.83
 14.82
 14.82


FIFA-esque Power Ranking
The Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.

Team
 		Wk
32		 Wk
30		 Week
29 		Week
28 		Week
27 		Week
26 		Week
25
LA Galaxy 83.64
 83.73
 83.82
 83.85
 83.82
 83.79
 83.81
FC Dallas 80.78
 80.77
 80.73
 80.70
 80.67
 80.65
 80.59
Sporting Kansas City 77.93
 78.03
 78.10
 78.09
 78.13
 78.18
 78.20
Real Salt Lake 75.63
 75.92
 76.07
 76.14
 76.21
 76.22
 76.15
New York Red Bulls 75.29
 74.84
 74.60
 74.38
 74.19
 73.99
 73.75
Seattle Sounders 72.47
 72.07
 71.81
 71.62
 71.49
 71.41
 71.30
Vancouver Whitecaps 68.45
 68.94
 68.94
 69.09
 69.26
 69.40
 69.62
Portland Timbers 66.19
 66.35
 66.48
 66.56
 66.51
 66.52
 66.60
Toronto FC 65.39
 65.27
 65.27
 65.11
 64.95
 64.76
 64.64
D.C. United 64.45
 63.88
 63.62
 63.47
 63.37
 63.26
 63.14
New York City FC * 63.00
 62.70
 62.49
 62.30
 62.13
 61.96
 61.71
Colorado Rapids 62.26
 62.16
 62.11
 62.11
 62.08
 62.03
 62.07
San Jose Earthquakes 61.00
 61.35
 61.54
 61.78
 61.97
 62.20
 62.38
Orlando City * 60.65
 60.87
 61.06
 61.24
 61.36
 61.38
 61.45
Montreal Impact 59.82
 60.02
 60.13
 60.38
 60.62
 60.77
 60.87
Columbus Crew SC 59.28
 59.18
 59.12
 59.09
 59.14
 59.26
 59.32
New England Revolution 58.75
 58.79
 58.72
 58.70
 58.61
 58.63
 58.73
Philadelphia Union 57.31
 57.48
 57.55
 57.59
 57.64
 57.67
 57.69
Houston Dynamo 56.06
 56.09
 56.09
 56.03
 56.05
 56.10
 56.18
Chicago Fire 44.49
 44.54
 44.58
 44.62
 44.66
 44.65
 44.60

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

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