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Week 30 Power Ranking Averages

16 of 20 sites publishing this week. Montreal rises while KC drops.

Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports


Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls) *No ranking for Wk 30
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) *No ranking for Wk 30
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer) *No ranking for Wk 30
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)
  • Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)
  • CSN Chicago (csnchicago.com/chicago-fire - bi-weekly) *No ranking for Wk 30
  • Inonit.com (inotit.com)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!


Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk30 Wk29 Wk 28
Team
Wk30
Avg
Wk29
Avg
Wk28
Avg
Worst
Best
1
1
2
Dallas 1.79
1.89
2.18
5
1
2
3
4
New York RB 1.93
2.72
3.94
4
1
3
5
6
New York FC 3.71
4.83
5.59
7
2
4
6
5
Colorado 4.07
5.22
4.71
8
2
5
2
1
Toronto 5.07
2.17
2.00
9
3
6
4
3
Los Angeles 6.29
4.44
2.65
11
1
7
9
11
Seattle 6.64
9.11
11.29
11
2
8
11
12
D. C. U. 7.00
10.56
12.24
12
2
9
10
9
Philadelphia 10.43
9.50
9.47
15
7
9
13
14
Montreal 10.43
14.11
13.24
13
8
11
7
8
Salt Lake 11.00
8.50
8.35
16
7
12
7
10
Kansas City 11.21
8.50
10.24
14
7
13
12
7
Portland 13.43
11.44
8.24
15
10
13
15
13
New England 13.43
15.11
13.18
19
9
15
16
19
Columbus 14.86
15.22
17.94
17
12
16
17
15
San Jose 16.00
17.00
15.06
18
13
17
14
17
Houston 16.14
14.89
16.76
18
12
18
18
18
Vancouver 18.36
17.28
17.71
20
15
19
19
16
Orlando 18.36
17.83
15.76
20
17
20
20
20
Chicago 19.86
19.78
19.59
20
16
  • Largest Rise: Montreal +4
  • Largest Fall: Kansas City -5

Analytic Site Average
For those interested in seeing how the Analytic Sites differ, here's their averages alone.

Wk30 Wk29
Wk28 Team
Wk30
Avg
Wk29
Avg
Wk28
Avg
Difference
Avg. Diff.
For Season
1
1
3
New York RB 1.33
2.00
2.57
-1
+0.09
2
3
4
Dallas 3.17
2.71
3.29
+1
+0.92
3
4
1
Los Angeles 4.50
3.71
2.00
-3
-1.21
4
6
6
New York FC 4.67
6.29
6.43
+1
+0.43
5
2
2
Toronto 5.17
2.57
2.43
0
-0.33
5
5
5
Colorado 5.17
5.43
5.14
+1
-0.15
7
9
9
D. C. U. 5.67
8.57
9.86
-1
-0.86
8
8
12
Seattle 7.17
8.56
11.29
+1
+0.17
9
10
8
Philadelphia 9.83
9.86
9.71
0
+0.34
10
15
14
Montreal 10.17
14.71
14.57
+1
+0.20
11
7
9
Kansas City 10.33
8.29
9.86
-1
+0.47
12
12
7
Portland 12.50
11.43
8.29
-1
+0.41
13
11
11
Salt Lake 12.83
11.00
10.00
+2
+1.01
14
13
15
Houston 14.33
13.43
15.00
-3
-1.35
15
14
18
Columbus 14.67
14.14
17.57
0
-1.26
16
16
13
San Jose 16.00
16.00
13.86
0
-0.29
17
19
17
New England 16.67
17.71
16.43
+4
+1.12
18
18
16
Orlando 17.83
17.43
15.71
-1
-0.84
19
17
18
Vancouver 18.50
17.29
17.57
+1
+1.83
20
20
20
Chicago 19.33
18.57
18.29
0
-1.11

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
#
Exact
1
off
2
off
3
off
4
off
5+
off
Worst
most
bias vs
most
bias for
Who Scored
4
7
3
3
2
1
NER
VAN -5.60
CHI +5.44
Jeff Sagarin
6
7
1
3
2
1
NER
NYFC -2.52
HOU +2.66
Sports Club Stats
10
10
0
0
0
0
10@+/-1
POR -4.43 NYFC +2.34
Sports Illustrated
4
9
5
1
1
0
NER
COL -2.01 SEA +3.12
ESPN
8
5
5
0
1
1
LAG
RSL -2.72
POR +2.63
Soccer America
3
6
6
2
2
1
PHI
NYRB -0.91
CHI +1.54
Major League Soccer
10
8
2
0
0
0
LAG/SEA
LAG -1.67
TFC +1.96
The Mane Land
8
7
3
1
1
0
PHI
PHI -2.46
VAN +2.30
Soccer By Ives
8
8
2
2
0
0
MTL/RSL
COL -1.35
SEA +2.18
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes 5
10
1
0
1
3
DCU
RSL -3.35
CLB +2.95
Reddit r/MLS
NA






DCU -1.47
VAN +0.90
MLS Fantasy Boss
NA






PHI -3.77
POR +5.85
The Score
9
7
4
4
5
0
5@+/-4
COL -1.65
VAN +2.05
Power Rankings & More
14
3
2
1
0
0
PHI
TFC -2.01
NER +2.00
Seattle Times
9
6
5
0
0
0
5@+/-2
NYRB -0.91
VAN +1.75
Hot Footy
NA






HNOU -1.72
SKC +1.10
Sportify
2
4
6
1
3
4
4@+/-5
PHI -3.35
NYRB +3.81
Black & Red United
3
12
3
2
0
0
PHI/SJE
TFC -2.97
COL +3.28
CSN Chicago
NA






MTL -1.64
RSL +2.67
In On It
6
5
3
2
2
2
NER
NER -4.42
NYRB +5.51
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Power Rankings and More with 14 exact matches, and a KUDOS to analytic site Sports Club Stats for getting every team within 1!
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Sportify with 4 off by 5.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Who Scored with VAN 5.60 from avg.
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 5.85 places from avg.

5 Year Average
Season ending power rank averaged over the last 5 years (2 years for ORL & NYCFC).

Team
5 Yr
Avg
Wk
29
Wk
28
Wk
27
Wk
26
Wk
25
LA Galaxy 5.38
5.36
5.36
5.36
5.37
5.36
Sporting Kansas City 5.71
5.70
5.70
5.69
5.68
5.68
Real Salt Lake 6.28
6.25
6.24
6.23
6.22
6.24
FC Dallas 7.05
7.05
7.06
7.07
7.07
7.08
New York Red Bulls 7.12
7.17
7.21
7.25
7.29
7.34
Seattle Sounders 7.55
7.60
7.64
7.66
7.68
7.70
Vancouver Whitecaps 9.12
9.09
9.06
9.02
9.00
8.95
San Jose Earthquakes 10.34
10.30
10.26
10.22
10.17
10.14
Portland Timbers 10.47
10.44
10.42
10.43
10.43
10.42
D.C. United 10.56
10.61
10.64
10.66
10.68
10.71
Colorado Rapids 11.41
11.42
11.42
11.42
11.43
11.43
Houston Dynamo 11.48
11.48
11.49
11.49
11.48
11.46
Montreal Impact 11.79
11.77
11.72
11.67
11.64
11.62
Columbus Crew SC 11.86
11.87
11.87
11.86
11.84
11.83
Toronto FC 11.94
11.95
11.98
12.01
12.05
12.08
New England Revolution 12.38
12.40
12.40
12.42
12.42
12.40
New York City FC 12.68
12.78
12.88
12.96
13.05
13.17
Philadelphia Union 12.78
12.77
12.76
12.75
12.74
12.74
Orlando City 13.53
13.43
13.34
13.28
13.28
13.24
Chicago Fire 14.84
14.84
14.83
14.82
14.82
14.83


FIFA-esque Power Ranking

The Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.

Team
Wk
30
Week
29
Week
28
Week
27
Week
26
Week
25
Week
24
LA Galaxy 83.73
83.82
83.85
83.82
83.79
83.81
83.9
FC Dallas 80.77
80.73
80.70
80.67
80.65
80.59
80.53
Sporting Kansas City 78.03
78.10
78.09
78.13
78.18
78.20
78.25
Real Salt Lake 75.92
76.07
76.14
76.21
76.22
76.15
76.09
New York Red Bulls 74.84
74.60
74.38
74.19
73.99
73.75
73.51
Seattle Sounders 72.07
71.81
71.62
71.49
71.41
71.30
71.21
Vancouver Whitecaps 68.94
68.94
69.09
69.26
69.40
69.62
69.81
Portland Timbers 66.35
66.48
66.56
66.51
66.52
66.60
66.66
Toronto FC 65.27
65.27
65.11
64.95
64.76
64.64
64.49
D.C. United 63.88
63.62
63.47
63.37
63.26
63.14
62.98
New York City FC * 62.70
62.49
62.30
62.13
61.96
61.71
61.46
Colorado Rapids 62.16
62.11
62.11
62.08
62.03
62.07
62.02
San Jose Earthquakes 61.35
61.54
61.78
61.97
62.20
62.38
62.60
Orlando City * 60.87
61.06
61.24
61.36
61.38
61.45
61.52
Montreal Impact 60.02
60.13
60.38
60.62
60.77
60.87
61.00
Columbus Crew SC 59.18
59.12
59.09
59.14
59.26
59.32
59.33
New England Revolution 58.79
58.72
58.70
58.61
58.63
58.73
58.89
Philadelphia Union 57.48
57.55
57.59
57.64
57.67
57.69
57.65
Houston Dynamo 56.09
56.09
56.03
56.05
56.10
56.18
56.23
Chicago Fire 44.54
44.58
44.62
44.66
44.65
44.60
44.63

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)