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Week 30 Power Ranking Averages

16 of 20 sites publishing this week. Montreal rises while KC drops.

By Kreg Asay
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports


Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls) *No ranking for Wk 30
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) *No ranking for Wk 30
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer) *No ranking for Wk 30
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)
  • Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)
  • CSN Chicago (csnchicago.com/chicago-fire - bi-weekly) *No ranking for Wk 30
  • Inonit.com (inotit.com)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk30 Wk29 Wk 28
 Team
 Wk30
Avg		 Wk29
Avg		 Wk28
Avg		 Worst
 Best
1
 1
 2
 Dallas 1.79
 1.89
 2.18
 5
 1
2
 3
 4
 New York RB 1.93
 2.72
 3.94
 4
 1
3
 5
 6
 New York FC 3.71
 4.83
 5.59
 7
 2
4
 6
 5
 Colorado 4.07
 5.22
 4.71
 8
 2
5
 2
 1
 Toronto 5.07
 2.17
 2.00
 9
 3
6
 4
 3
 Los Angeles 6.29
 4.44
 2.65
 11
 1
7
 9
 11
 Seattle 6.64
 9.11
 11.29
 11
 2
8
 11
 12
 D. C. U. 7.00
 10.56
 12.24
 12
 2
9
 10
 9
 Philadelphia 10.43
 9.50
 9.47
 15
 7
9
 13
 14
 Montreal 10.43
 14.11
 13.24
 13
 8
11
 7
 8
 Salt Lake 11.00
 8.50
 8.35
 16
 7
12
 7
 10
 Kansas City 11.21
 8.50
 10.24
 14
 7
13
 12
 7
 Portland 13.43
 11.44
 8.24
 15
 10
13
 15
 13
 New England 13.43
 15.11
 13.18
 19
 9
15
 16
 19
 Columbus 14.86
 15.22
 17.94
 17
 12
16
 17
 15
 San Jose 16.00
 17.00
 15.06
 18
 13
17
 14
 17
 Houston 16.14
 14.89
 16.76
 18
 12
18
 18
 18
 Vancouver 18.36
 17.28
 17.71
 20
 15
19
 19
 16
 Orlando 18.36
 17.83
 15.76
 20
 17
20
 20
 20
 Chicago 19.86
 19.78
 19.59
 20
 16
  • Largest Rise: Montreal +4
  • Largest Fall: Kansas City -5

Analytic Site Average
For those interested in seeing how the Analytic Sites differ, here's their averages alone.

Wk30 Wk29
 Wk28 Team
 Wk30
Avg		 Wk29
Avg		 Wk28
Avg		 Difference
 Avg. Diff.
For Season
1
 1
 3
 New York RB 1.33
 2.00
 2.57
 -1
 +0.09
2
 3
 4
 Dallas 3.17
 2.71
 3.29
 +1
 +0.92
3
 4
 1
 Los Angeles 4.50
 3.71
 2.00
 -3
 -1.21
4
 6
 6
 New York FC 4.67
 6.29
 6.43
 +1
 +0.43
5
 2
 2
 Toronto 5.17
 2.57
 2.43
 0
 -0.33
5
 5
 5
 Colorado 5.17
 5.43
 5.14
 +1
 -0.15
7
 9
 9
 D. C. U. 5.67
 8.57
 9.86
 -1
 -0.86
8
 8
 12
 Seattle 7.17
 8.56
 11.29
 +1
 +0.17
9
 10
 8
 Philadelphia 9.83
 9.86
 9.71
 0
 +0.34
10
 15
 14
 Montreal 10.17
 14.71
 14.57
 +1
 +0.20
11
 7
 9
 Kansas City 10.33
 8.29
 9.86
 -1
 +0.47
12
 12
 7
 Portland 12.50
 11.43
 8.29
 -1
 +0.41
13
 11
 11
 Salt Lake 12.83
 11.00
 10.00
 +2
 +1.01
14
 13
 15
 Houston 14.33
 13.43
 15.00
 -3
 -1.35
15
 14
 18
 Columbus 14.67
 14.14
 17.57
 0
 -1.26
16
 16
 13
 San Jose 16.00
 16.00
 13.86
 0
 -0.29
17
 19
 17
 New England 16.67
 17.71
 16.43
 +4
 +1.12
18
 18
 16
 Orlando 17.83
 17.43
 15.71
 -1
 -0.84
19
 17
 18
 Vancouver 18.50
 17.29
 17.57
 +1
 +1.83
20
 20
 20
 Chicago 19.33
 18.57
 18.29
 0
 -1.11

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 #
Exact
 1
off
 2
off
 3
off
 4
off
 5+
off
 Worst
 most
bias vs
 most
bias for
Who Scored
 4
 7
 3
 3
 2
 1
 NER
 VAN -5.60
 CHI +5.44
Jeff Sagarin
 6
 7
 1
 3
 2
 1
 NER
 NYFC -2.52
 HOU +2.66
Sports Club Stats
 10
 10
 0
 0
 0
 0
 10@+/-1
 POR -4.43 NYFC +2.34
Sports Illustrated
 4
 9
 5
 1
 1
 0
 NER
 COL -2.01 SEA +3.12
ESPN
 8
 5
 5
 0
 1
 1
 LAG
 RSL -2.72
 POR +2.63
Soccer America
 3
 6
 6
 2
 2
 1
 PHI
 NYRB -0.91
 CHI +1.54
Major League Soccer
 10
 8
 2
 0
 0
 0
 LAG/SEA
 LAG -1.67
 TFC +1.96
The Mane Land
 8
 7
 3
 1
 1
 0
 PHI
 PHI -2.46
 VAN +2.30
Soccer By Ives
 8
 8
 2
 2
 0
 0
 MTL/RSL
 COL -1.35
 SEA +2.18
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes 5
 10
 1
 0
 1
 3
 DCU
 RSL -3.35
 CLB +2.95
Reddit r/MLS
 NA





DCU -1.47
 VAN +0.90
MLS Fantasy Boss
 NA





PHI -3.77
 POR +5.85
The Score
 9
 7
 4
 4
 5
 0
 5@+/-4
 COL -1.65
 VAN +2.05
Power Rankings & More
 14
 3
 2
 1
 0
 0
 PHI
 TFC -2.01
 NER +2.00
Seattle Times
 9
 6
 5
 0
 0
 0
 5@+/-2
 NYRB -0.91
 VAN +1.75
Hot Footy
 NA





HNOU -1.72
 SKC +1.10
Sportify
 2
 4
 6
 1
 3
 4
 4@+/-5
 PHI -3.35
 NYRB +3.81
Black & Red United
 3
 12
 3
 2
 0
 0
 PHI/SJE
 TFC -2.97
 COL +3.28
CSN Chicago
 NA





MTL -1.64
 RSL +2.67
In On It
 6
 5
 3
 2
 2
 2
 NER
 NER -4.42
 NYRB +5.51
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Power Rankings and More with 14 exact matches, and a KUDOS to analytic site Sports Club Stats for getting every team within 1!
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Sportify with 4 off by 5.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Who Scored with VAN 5.60 from avg.
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 5.85 places from avg.

5 Year Average
Season ending power rank averaged over the last 5 years (2 years for ORL & NYCFC).

Team
 		5 Yr
Avg		 Wk
29 		Wk
28 		Wk
27 		Wk
26		 Wk
25
LA Galaxy 5.38
 5.36
 5.36
 5.36
 5.37
 5.36
Sporting Kansas City 5.71
 5.70
 5.70
 5.69
 5.68
 5.68
Real Salt Lake 6.28
 6.25
 6.24
 6.23
 6.22
 6.24
FC Dallas 7.05
 7.05
 7.06
 7.07
 7.07
 7.08
New York Red Bulls 7.12
 7.17
 7.21
 7.25
 7.29
 7.34
Seattle Sounders 7.55
 7.60
 7.64
 7.66
 7.68
 7.70
Vancouver Whitecaps 9.12
 9.09
 9.06
 9.02
 9.00
 8.95
San Jose Earthquakes 10.34
 10.30
 10.26
 10.22
 10.17
 10.14
Portland Timbers 10.47
 10.44
 10.42
 10.43
 10.43
 10.42
D.C. United 10.56
 10.61
 10.64
 10.66
 10.68
 10.71
Colorado Rapids 11.41
 11.42
 11.42
 11.42
 11.43
 11.43
Houston Dynamo 11.48
 11.48
 11.49
 11.49
 11.48
 11.46
Montreal Impact 11.79
 11.77
 11.72
 11.67
 11.64
 11.62
Columbus Crew SC 11.86
 11.87
 11.87
 11.86
 11.84
 11.83
Toronto FC 11.94
 11.95
 11.98
 12.01
 12.05
 12.08
New England Revolution 12.38
 12.40
 12.40
 12.42
 12.42
 12.40
New York City FC 12.68
 12.78
 12.88
 12.96
 13.05
 13.17
Philadelphia Union 12.78
 12.77
 12.76
 12.75
 12.74
 12.74
Orlando City 13.53
 13.43
 13.34
 13.28
 13.28
 13.24
Chicago Fire 14.84
 14.84
 14.83
 14.82
 14.82
 14.83


FIFA-esque Power Ranking
The Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.

Team
 		Wk
30		 Week
29 		Week
28 		Week
27 		Week
26 		Week
25 		Week
24
LA Galaxy 83.73
 83.82
 83.85
 83.82
 83.79
 83.81
 83.9
FC Dallas 80.77
 80.73
 80.70
 80.67
 80.65
 80.59
 80.53
Sporting Kansas City 78.03
 78.10
 78.09
 78.13
 78.18
 78.20
 78.25
Real Salt Lake 75.92
 76.07
 76.14
 76.21
 76.22
 76.15
 76.09
New York Red Bulls 74.84
 74.60
 74.38
 74.19
 73.99
 73.75
 73.51
Seattle Sounders 72.07
 71.81
 71.62
 71.49
 71.41
 71.30
 71.21
Vancouver Whitecaps 68.94
 68.94
 69.09
 69.26
 69.40
 69.62
 69.81
Portland Timbers 66.35
 66.48
 66.56
 66.51
 66.52
 66.60
 66.66
Toronto FC 65.27
 65.27
 65.11
 64.95
 64.76
 64.64
 64.49
D.C. United 63.88
 63.62
 63.47
 63.37
 63.26
 63.14
 62.98
New York City FC * 62.70
 62.49
 62.30
 62.13
 61.96
 61.71
 61.46
Colorado Rapids 62.16
 62.11
 62.11
 62.08
 62.03
 62.07
 62.02
San Jose Earthquakes 61.35
 61.54
 61.78
 61.97
 62.20
 62.38
 62.60
Orlando City * 60.87
 61.06
 61.24
 61.36
 61.38
 61.45
 61.52
Montreal Impact 60.02
 60.13
 60.38
 60.62
 60.77
 60.87
 61.00
Columbus Crew SC 59.18
 59.12
 59.09
 59.14
 59.26
 59.32
 59.33
New England Revolution 58.79
 58.72
 58.70
 58.61
 58.63
 58.73
 58.89
Philadelphia Union 57.48
 57.55
 57.59
 57.64
 57.67
 57.69
 57.65
Houston Dynamo 56.09
 56.09
 56.03
 56.05
 56.10
 56.18
 56.23
Chicago Fire 44.54
 44.58
 44.62
 44.66
 44.65
 44.60
 44.63

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

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