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MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 1
The First week of the season and a bumper crop of Power Rankings. With the exception of the 'analytic' sites, nearly all the rest based their first week rankings off of their Preseason rankings (which in turn were mostly based on the final 2015 season positions). My numbers for the Preseason Ranking have changed slightly with a few new sites being added.
Most sites tend to come and go, usually lasting about half of the season; I may start with 15+ and end with 7-8, but as long as sites continue to publish their rankings I shall endeavor to average them.
Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":
"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14
Sites Used:
- Who Scored (whoscored.com)
- Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
- Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
- Football Database (footballdatabase.com/ranking/north-america/1)
- ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
- Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
- The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
- Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
- NYCFC Blog (skybluesofny.com)
- Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking, posted on reddit.com/r/mls)
- Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
- SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
- Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls)
- Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
- Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
- Altus Directory (altiusdirectory.com/Sports/mls-power-rankings.php)
- The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias. Each week I'll also be listing the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.
As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!
Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.
Wk1 |
2016 Preseason |
2015 Wk 34 |
Team |
Wk1 Avg |
2016 Preseason |
2015 W34 Avg |
Worst |
Best |
Range |
1 |
3 |
2 |
Dallas | 2.20 |
3.46 |
2.00 |
5 |
1 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
Portland | 2.27 |
2.00 |
5.22 |
15 |
1 |
14 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
Los Angeles | 3.73 |
6.08 |
6.56 |
7 |
1 |
6 |
4 |
10 |
9 |
Toronto | 4.93 |
9.69 |
8.67 |
16 |
1 |
15 |
5 |
8 |
8 |
Montreal | 6.07 |
7.85 |
7.11 |
12 |
1 |
11 |
6 |
9 |
10 |
Kansas City | 6.87 |
9.00 |
9.44 |
11 |
2 |
9 |
7 |
4 |
3 |
Columbus | 7.07 |
3.62 |
3.56 |
16 |
3 |
13 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
New York RB | 7.73 |
2.85 |
1.22 | 19 |
1 |
18 |
9 |
11 |
11 |
New England | 10.00 |
10.46 |
10.67 |
13 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
6 |
5 |
Vancouver | 10.87 |
6.54 |
5.67 |
17 |
4 |
13 |
11 |
14 |
13 |
San Jose | 11.07 |
13.46 |
12.44 |
17 |
5 |
12 |
12 |
7 | 7 | Seattle | 11.20 |
6.92 |
7.00 | 20 |
2 |
18 |
13 |
15 |
17 |
New York FC | 11.87 |
14.92 |
17.33 |
18 |
4 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
Orlando | 13.27 |
12.62 |
12.44 |
16 |
11 |
5 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
Salt Lake | 13.40 |
15.23 |
15.44 |
18 |
6 |
12 |
16 |
17 |
16 |
Houston | 14.73 |
15.77 |
15.67 |
18 |
9 |
9 |
17 |
13 |
12 |
D. C. | 16.47 |
12.85 | 11.89 |
19 |
10 |
9 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
Philadelphia | 18.33 |
17.77 |
17.44 |
20 |
16 |
4 |
19 |
19 |
20 |
Chicago | 18.40 |
18.92 |
19.44 |
20 |
10 |
10 |
20 |
20 |
19 |
Colorado | 19.13 |
19.38 |
18.78 |
20 |
15 |
5 |
Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above. The best and worst # of matches is indicated. Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).
Site |
# Exact |
1 off |
2 off |
3+ off |
Furthest off |
most bias vs |
most bias for |
Who Scored |
1 |
5 |
3 |
11 |
NYRB |
NYRB +11.3 |
CHI -8.4 |
Jeff Sagarin |
3 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
CLB, NYFC |
CLB +4.93 |
SJE -4.07 |
Sports Club Stats |
1 |
1 |
2 |
16 |
NYRB |
NYRB +10.3 |
NYFC -7.87 |
Football Database |
1 |
7 |
3 |
9 |
TFC |
TFC +12.07 |
SEA -9.02 |
ESPN |
6 |
6 |
1 |
7 |
CLB, NYRB, TFC |
TFC +5.07 |
VAN -4.87 |
Sports Illustrated |
5 |
8 |
5 |
2 |
NER, NYFC |
NER +3.0 |
NYRB -2.73 |
The Mane Land |
6 |
2 |
5 |
7 |
SJE |
SJE +5.43 |
VAN -4.37 |
Major League Soccer |
5 |
10 |
3 |
2 |
LAG |
LAG +3.77 |
VAN -4.37 |
NYCFC Blog |
2 |
10 |
6 |
2 |
HOU, NER |
TFC +3.57 |
CLB -3.57 |
Reddit r/MLS |
8 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
ORL, SEA, VAN |
LAG +3.27 |
ORL +2.27 |
Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes | 2 |
8 |
5 |
5 |
MON, TFC, VAN |
TFC +6.57 |
MON -4.07 |
Soccer America |
4 |
7 |
3 |
6 |
NYRB |
NYRB +7.27 |
NYFC -4.87 |
Bleacher Report |
4 |
7 |
3 |
6 |
NER |
NER +3.00 |
CLB -3.07 |
Soccer By Ives |
5 |
10 |
2 |
3 |
CLB, MON, SEA |
MON +3.43 |
SEA -4.7 |
Seattle Times |
5 |
5 |
3 |
7 |
VAN |
NYFC +4.13 |
VAN -6.87 |
Altus Directory |
5 |
4 |
1 |
10 |
POR |
POR +12.73 |
NYRB -6.73 |
The Score | 3 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
NYRB |
SKC +4.13 |
NYRB -6.23 |
- Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker): Reddit /r/MLS
- Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off as tiebreaker): Sports Club Stats
- Site with Worst Bias: Altus Directory (POR +12.73)
- Sites with Least Bias: Sports Illustrated (for/vs below 3.00), Bleacher Report (for/vs below 3.07)
Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount. The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.
Team |
Week 1 |
2016
(run. avg)
|
2015 Avg |
2014 Avg |
2013 Avg |
2012 Avg |
Weighted Pts |
LA Galaxy | 3.73 |
3.73 |
4.51 |
5.23 |
5.15 |
8.39 |
16.38 |
FC Dallas | 2.20 | 2.20 |
4.64 |
6.35 |
8.58 |
12.88 |
18.65 |
Sporting Kansas City | 6.87 |
6.87 |
6.35 | 5.64 | 4.48 | 3.07 |
19.82 |
New York Red Bulls | 7.73 |
7.73 |
4.68 |
10.05 |
6.52 |
5.58 |
24.13 |
Seattle Sounders | 11.20 |
11.20 |
6.07 | 2.86 |
9.38 |
5.07 |
24.77 |
Portland Timbers | 2.27 |
2.27 |
9.45 |
11.64 |
5.83 |
15.88 |
26.39 |
Vancouver Whitecaps | 10.87 |
10.87 |
5.09 |
7.98 |
10.33 |
8.95 |
28.84 |
Real Salt Lake | 13.40 |
13.40 |
12.43 |
4.12 |
4.58 |
3.70 |
30.89 |
Columbus Crew SC | 19.13 |
19.13 |
8.75 |
9.60 |
12.81 |
11.70 |
31.48 |
Toronto FC | 4.93 |
4.93 |
9.75 |
8.97 |
16.83 |
17.85 |
33.31 |
New England Revolution | 10.00 |
10.00 |
9.50 |
9.66 |
12.52 |
14.78 |
35.75 |
D.C. United | 16.47 |
16.47 |
5.91 |
7.49 |
17.24 |
7.45 |
37.89 |
Montreal Impact | 6.07 |
6.07 |
15.06 |
17.54 |
5.17 |
13.99 |
38.86 |
San Jose Earthquakes | 4.93 |
4.93 |
9.75 |
8.97 |
16.83 |
17.85 |
39.34 |
New York City FC * | 11.87 |
11.87 |
15.47 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
40.79 |
Orlando City * | 13.27 |
13.27 |
14.21 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
41.06 |
Houston Dynamo | 14.73 |
14.73 |
13.81 | 12.77 |
7.71 |
6.75 |
42.28 |
Colorado Rapids | 19.13 |
19.13 |
17.38 | 11.54 | 9.88 | 12.85 | 51.58 |
Philadelphia Union | 18.33 |
18.33 |
18.07 | 11.85 | 10.45 | 15.19 | 52.50 |
Chicago Fire | 18.40 |
18.40 |
17.71 |
15.54 |
14.35 |
7.91 |
55.15 |
* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 10 for missing years)
Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.
Team |
Weekly Best |
Weekly Worst |
Best Wk. Avg. |
Worst Wk. Avg. |
Chicago Fire |
18.40 |
18.40 |
18.40 | 18.40 |
Colorado Rapids |
19.13 |
19.13 |
19.13 |
19.13 |
Columbus Crew SC |
7.07 |
7.07 |
7.07 |
7.07 |
D.C. United |
16.47 |
16.47 |
16.47 |
16.47 |
FC Dallas |
2.20 |
2.20 |
2.20 |
2.20 |
Houston Dynamo |
14.73 |
14.73 |
14.73 |
14.73 |
LA Galaxy |
3.73 |
3.73 |
3.73 |
3.73 |
Montreal Impact |
6.07 |
6.07 |
6.07 |
6.07 |
New England Revolution |
10.00 |
10.00 |
10.00 |
10.00 |
New York City FC |
11.87 |
11.87 |
11.87 |
11.87 |
New York Red Bulls |
7.73 |
7.73 |
7.73 |
7.73 |
Orlando City |
13.27 |
13.27 |
13.27 |
13.27 |
Philadelphia Union |
18.33 |
18.33 |
18.33 |
18.33 |
Portland Timbers |
2.27 |
2.27 |
2.27 |
2.27 |
Real Salt Lake |
13.40 |
13.40 |
13.40 |
13.40 |
San Jose Earthquakes |
11.07 |
11.07 |
11.07 |
11.07 |
Seattle Sounders |
11.20 |
11.20 |
11.20 |
11.20 |
Sporting Kansas City |
6.87 |
6.87 |
6.87 |
6.87 |
Toronto FC |
4.93 |
4.93 |
4.93 |
4.93 |
Vancouver Whitecaps |
10.87 |
10.87 |
10.87 |
10.87 |
- Largest Range (position): 0
- Smallest Range (position): 0
- 1 team have been ranked first
- 1 team have been ranked last