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MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 1 from 17 sites

Quite a few new sites have been added to the list, and many familiar ones. Dallas barely edges Portland for first place.

By Kreg Asay
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images


MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 1

The First week of the season and a bumper crop of Power Rankings.  With the exception of the 'analytic' sites, nearly all the rest based their first week rankings off of their Preseason rankings (which in turn were mostly based on the final 2015 season positions).  My numbers for the Preseason Ranking have changed slightly with a few new sites being added.

Most sites tend to come and go, usually lasting about half of the season; I may start with 15+ and end with 7-8, but as long as sites continue to publish their rankings I shall endeavor to average them.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Football Database (footballdatabase.com/ranking/north-america/1)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • NYCFC Blog (skybluesofny.com)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking, posted on reddit.com/r/mls)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Altus Directory (altiusdirectory.com/Sports/mls-power-rankings.php)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  Each week I'll also be listing the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk1
 2016
Preseason
 2015
Wk 34 		Team
 		Wk1
Avg
 2016
Preseason
 2015
W34 Avg		 Worst
 		Best
 		Range
1
 3
 2
 Dallas 2.20
 3.46
 2.00
 5
 1
 4
2
 1
 4
 Portland 2.27
 2.00
 5.22
 15
 1
 14
3
 5
 6
 Los Angeles 3.73
 6.08
 6.56
 7
 1
 6
4
 10
 9
 Toronto 4.93
 9.69
 8.67
 16
 1
 15
5
 8
 8
 Montreal 6.07
 7.85
 7.11
 12
 1
 11
6
 9
 10
 Kansas City 6.87
 9.00
 9.44
 11
 2
 9
7
 4
 3
 Columbus 7.07
 3.62
 3.56
 16
 3
 13
8
 2
 1
 New York RB 7.73
 2.85
 1.22 19
 1
 18
9
 11
 11
 New England 10.00
 10.46
 10.67
 13
 6
 7
10
 6
 5
 Vancouver 10.87
 6.54
 5.67
 17
 4
 13
11
 14
 13
 San Jose 11.07
 13.46
 12.44
 17
 5
 12
12
 7 7 Seattle 11.20
 6.92
 7.00 20
 2
 18
13
 15
 17
 New York FC 11.87
 14.92
 17.33
 18
 4
 14
14
 12
 14
 Orlando 13.27
 12.62
 12.44
 16
 11
 5
15
 16
 15
 Salt Lake 13.40
 15.23
 15.44
 18
 6
 12
16
 17
 16
 Houston 14.73
 15.77
 15.67
 18
 9
 9
17
 13
 12
 D. C. 16.47
 12.85 11.89
 19
 10
 9
18
 18
 18
 Philadelphia 18.33
 17.77
 17.44
 20
 16
 4
19
 19
 20
 Chicago 18.40
 18.92
 19.44
 20
 10
 10
20
 20
 19
 Colorado 19.13
 19.38
 18.78
 20
 15
 5


Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 		# Exact
 		1 off
 		2 off
 3+ off Furthest off
 		most bias vs
 		most bias for
Who Scored
 1
 5
 3
 11
 NYRB
 NYRB +11.3
 CHI -8.4
Jeff Sagarin
 3
 6
 4
 7
 CLB, NYFC
 CLB +4.93
 SJE -4.07
Sports Club Stats
 1
 1
 2
 16
 NYRB
 NYRB +10.3
 NYFC -7.87
Football Database
 1
 7
 3
 9
 TFC
 TFC +12.07
 SEA -9.02
ESPN
 6
 6
 1
 7
 CLB, NYRB, TFC
 TFC +5.07
 VAN -4.87
Sports Illustrated
 5
 8
 5
 2
 NER, NYFC
 NER +3.0
 NYRB -2.73
The Mane Land
 6
 2
 5
 7
 SJE
 SJE +5.43
 VAN -4.37
Major League Soccer
 5
 10
 3
 2
 LAG
 LAG +3.77
 VAN -4.37
NYCFC Blog
 2
 10
 6
 2
 HOU, NER
 TFC +3.57
 CLB -3.57
Reddit r/MLS
 8
 7
 2
 3
 ORL, SEA, VAN
 LAG +3.27
 ORL +2.27
Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes 2
 8
 5
 5
 MON, TFC, VAN
 TFC +6.57
 MON -4.07
Soccer America
 4
 7
 3
 6
 NYRB
 NYRB +7.27
 NYFC -4.87
Bleacher Report
 4
 7
 3
 6
 NER
 NER +3.00
 CLB -3.07
Soccer By Ives
 5
 10
 2
 3
 CLB, MON, SEA
 MON +3.43
 SEA -4.7
Seattle Times
 5
 5
 3
 7
 VAN
 NYFC +4.13
 VAN -6.87
Altus Directory
 5
 4
 1
 10
 POR
 POR +12.73
 NYRB -6.73
The Score 3
 7
 5
 5
 NYRB
 SKC +4.13
 NYRB -6.23
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker): Reddit /r/MLS
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off as tiebreaker): Sports Club Stats
  • Site with Worst Bias:  Altus Directory (POR +12.73)
  • Sites with Least Bias: Sports Illustrated (for/vs below 3.00), Bleacher Report (for/vs below 3.07)


Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.  The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team
 		Week
1
2016
(run. avg)
 2015
Avg
 2014
Avg		 2013
Avg
 		2012
Avg
 		Weighted
Pts
LA Galaxy 3.73
 3.73
 4.51
 5.23
 5.15
 8.39
 16.38
FC Dallas 2.20 2.20
 4.64
 6.35
 8.58
 12.88
 18.65
Sporting Kansas City 6.87
 6.87
 6.35 5.64 4.48 3.07
 19.82
New York Red Bulls 7.73
 7.73
 4.68
 10.05
 6.52
 5.58
 24.13
Seattle Sounders 11.20
 11.20
 6.07 2.86
 9.38
 5.07
 24.77
Portland Timbers 2.27
 2.27
 9.45
 11.64
 5.83
 15.88
 26.39
Vancouver Whitecaps 10.87
 10.87
 5.09
 7.98
 10.33
 8.95
 28.84
Real Salt Lake 13.40
 13.40
 12.43
 4.12
 4.58
 3.70
 30.89
Columbus Crew SC 19.13
 19.13
 8.75
 9.60
 12.81
 11.70
 31.48
Toronto FC 4.93
 4.93
 9.75
 8.97
 16.83
 17.85
 33.31
New England Revolution 10.00
 10.00
 9.50
 9.66
 12.52
 14.78
 35.75
D.C. United 16.47
 16.47
 5.91
 7.49
 17.24
 7.45
 37.89
Montreal Impact 6.07
 6.07
 15.06
 17.54
 5.17
 13.99
 38.86
San Jose Earthquakes 4.93
 4.93
 9.75
 8.97
 16.83
 17.85
 39.34
New York City FC * 11.87
 11.87
 15.47
 --
 --
 --
 40.79
Orlando City * 13.27
 13.27
 14.21
 --
 --
 --
 41.06
Houston Dynamo 14.73
 14.73
 13.81 12.77
 7.71
 6.75
 42.28
Colorado Rapids 19.13
 19.13
 17.38 11.54 9.88 12.85 51.58
Philadelphia Union 18.33
 18.33
 18.07 11.85 10.45 15.19 52.50
Chicago Fire 18.40
 18.40
 17.71
 15.54
 14.35
 7.91
 55.15

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 10 for missing years)

Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.

Team
 		Weekly
Best 		Weekly
Worst 		Best
Wk. Avg.
 		Worst
Wk. Avg.
Chicago Fire
 18.40
 18.40
 18.40 18.40
Colorado Rapids
 19.13
 19.13
 19.13
 19.13
Columbus Crew SC
 7.07
 7.07
 7.07
 7.07
D.C. United
 16.47
 16.47
 16.47
 16.47
FC Dallas
 2.20
 2.20
 2.20
 2.20
Houston Dynamo
 14.73
 14.73
 14.73
 14.73
LA Galaxy
 3.73
 3.73
 3.73
 3.73
Montreal Impact
 6.07
 6.07
 6.07
 6.07
New England Revolution
 10.00
 10.00
 10.00
 10.00
New York City FC
 11.87
 11.87
 11.87
 11.87
New York Red Bulls
 7.73
 7.73
 7.73
 7.73
Orlando City
 13.27
 13.27
 13.27
 13.27
Philadelphia Union
 18.33
 18.33
 18.33
 18.33
Portland Timbers
 2.27
 2.27
 2.27
 2.27
Real Salt Lake
 13.40
 13.40
 13.40
 13.40
San Jose Earthquakes
 11.07
 11.07
 11.07
 11.07
Seattle Sounders
 11.20
 11.20
 11.20
 11.20
Sporting Kansas City
 6.87
 6.87
 6.87
 6.87
Toronto FC
 4.93
 4.93
 4.93
 4.93
Vancouver Whitecaps
 10.87
 10.87
 10.87
 10.87
  • Largest Range (position): 0
  • Smallest Range (position): 0
  • 1 team have been ranked first
  • 1 team have been ranked last

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