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Power Ranking Averages for Week 2

17 sites published, and totals changed for wk 1 after many late and new entries!

By Kreg Asay
Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports


MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 2

A lot of late results came in the day after the last article; the averages ended up with 22 sites!  Wk 1 totals and order have been adjusted - Portland takes first for week 1!

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Squawka (squawka.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html) - No ranking Wk 2
  • Football Database (footballdatabase.com/ranking/north-america/1)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking, posted on reddit.com/r/mls)
  • NYCFC Blog (skybluesofny.com) - No ranking Wk 2
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) - No ranking Wk 2
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls)
  • Soccer Information Network (soccerinformationnetwork.com/category/mls-power-rankings/) - No ranking Wk 2
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Altius Directory (altiusdirectory.com/Sports/mls-power-rankings.php) - No ranking Wk 2
  • MLSfix (mlsfix.com) - No ranking Wk 2
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  Each week I'll also be listing the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk2 Wk1
 2016
Preseason
 Team
 		Wk2
Avg 		Wk1
Avg
 2016
Preseason
 Worst
 		Best
 		Range
1
 5
 8
 Montreal 1.13
 6.20
 7.85
 9
 1
 8
2
 6
 9
 Kansas City 3.13
 6.85
 9.00
 6
 1
 5
3
 1
 1
 Portland 4.33
 2.35
 2.00
 10
 2
 8
4
 4
 10
 Toronto 4.67
 5.50
 9.69
 17
 2
 15
5
 10
 14
 San Jose 5.80
 11.25
 13.46
 11
 2
 9
6
 3
 5
 Los Angeles 7.67
 3.80
 6.08
 12
 1
 11
7
 16
 17
 Houston 8.13
 15.25
 15.77
 14
 2
 12
8
 2
 3
 Dallas 8.93
 2.55
 3.46
 17
 2
 15
9
 13
 15
 New York FC 10.53
 12.15
 14.92
 19
 6
 13
10
 15
 16
 Salt Lake 11.20
 14.05
 15.23
 14
 4
 10
11
 7
 4
 Columbus 11.93
 8.05
 3.62
 20
 6
 14
12
 9
 11
 New England 12.40
 10.85
 10.46
 17
 7
 10
13
 8
 2
 New York RB 14.27
 9.00
 2.85
 20
 6
 14
14
 11
 6
 Vancouver 15.40
 11.30
 6.54
 19
 10
 9
15
 18
 18
 Philadelphia 15.80
 19.50
 17.77
 19
 9
 10
16
 14
 12
 Orlando 15.87
 14.00
 12.62
 18
 11
 7
17
 12
 7
 Seattle 16.47
 11.75
 6.92
 19
 3
 16
18
 20
 20
 Colorado 16.67
 19.60
 19.38
 19
 8
 11
19
 17
 13
 D. C. 19.47
 17.15
 12.85
 20
 10
 10
20
 19
 19
 Chicago 20.00
 19.25
 18.92
 20
 11
 9
  • Largest Rise: Houston +9
  • Largest Fall: Dallas -6
  • Largest Range: Toronto & Dallas (15)
  • Smallest Range: Kansas City (5)


Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 		# Exact
 		1 off
 		2 off
 3+ off Furthest off
 		most bias vs
 		most bias for
Who Scored
 3
 3
 4
 10
 CHI -9
 NYRB +7.86
 CHI -9.13
Squawka
 4
 6
 2
 8
 COL -9
FCD +9
 NYRB +8.36
 COL -7.14
Jeff Sagarin
 2
 7
 1
 10
 COL -10
 CLB +6.01
 COL -5.64
Sports Club Stats
 NA
 NA NA NA NA NYRB +6.36
 NYFC -7.34
Football Database
 4
 3
 0
 13
 SEA -14
 TFC +11.91
 SEA -11.78
Sports Illustrated 6
 8
 1
 5
 3@ +/-4
 SJE +2.47 NYRB -5.31
ESPN
 7
 1
 5
 7
 NYRB -6
 SJE +4.14
 NYRB -6.97
The Mane Land 2
 6
 5
 7
 NYRB -6
 SJE +5.14 NYRB -6.97
Major League Soccer 4
 8
 3
 5
 NYFC +4
 SKC +3.01 VAN -5.35
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes 4
 9
 4
 3
 3@ +/-4 TFC +4.24 NYRB -4.64
NYCFC Blog
 NA NA NA NA NA RSL +3.87
 CLB -6.49
MLS Fantasy Boss
 NA NA NA NA NA TFC +8.41
 SEA -9.61
Soccer America 3
 3
 3
 11
 3@ +/-7 NYRB +5.86 RSL -4.63
Soccer By Ives 3
 7
 4
 6
 SEA -5
 MON +3.33 SEA -5.78
Reddit r/MLS 4
 10
 3
 3
 3@ +/-3 HOU +2.64 ORL -2.94
Bleacher Report
 4
 4
 1
 11
 NYRB -7
 NYFC +3.16
 NYRB -6.14
Soccer Information Network
 NA NA NA NA NA HOU +4.81
 SEA -7.11
Seattle Times
 5
 4
 6
 5
 NER +5
 NER +2.37
 VAN -6.35
The Score 6
 6
 6
 2
 NER -4
NYFC +4
 SJE +3.47 NYRB -6.97
Altius Directory
 NA NA NA NA NA POR +11.66
 NYRB -10.64
MLSfix
 NA NA NA NA NA TFC -4.91
 DCU -6.31
Hot Footy 7
 8
 1
 4
 NYRB -4
HOU +4
 RSL +2.37
 NYRB -3.14
Power Rankings & More 3
 0
 4
 13
 NYRB +7
 LAG +3.76
 DCU -4.81
Site
 		# Exact 1 off
 		2 off 3+ off Furthest off
 		most bias vs
 		most bias for
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker): Hot Footy with 15 within 1
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off as tiebreaker): Power Rankings & More on the 2 off tiebreaker
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Football Database (TFC +11.91)
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: Football Database (SEA -11.78
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Seattle Times (NER +2.37), Hot Footy (RSL +2.37)
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit/r/MLS (ORL -2.94)

Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.  The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team
 		Week
2		 Week
1
2016
(run. avg)
 2015
Avg
 2014
Avg		 2013
Avg
 		2012
Avg
 		Weighted
Pts
Sporting Kansas City 3.13
 6.87
 4.99
 6.35
 5.64
 4.48
 3.07
 17.94
LA Galaxy 7.67
 3.73
 5.74
 4.51
 5.23
 5.15
 8.39
 18.39
FC Dallas 8.93
 2.20 5.74
 4.64
 6.35
 8.58
 12.88
 22.19
Portland Timbers 4.33
 2.27
 3.34
 9.45
 11.64
 5.83
 15.88
 27.46
Seattle Sounders 16.47
 11.20
 14.11
 6.07 2.86
 9.38
 5.07
 27.68
Real Salt Lake 11.20
 13.40
 12.63
 12.43
 4.12
 4.58
 3.70
 30.12
Vancouver Whitecaps 15.40
 10.87
 13.35
 5.09
 7.98
 10.33
 8.95
 31.32
Toronto FC 4.67
 4.93
 5.09
 9.75
 8.97
 16.83
 17.85
 33.47
Columbus Crew SC 11.93
 19.13
 9.99
 8.75
 9.60
 12.81
 11.70
 34.40
Montreal Impact 1.13
 6.07
 3.67
 15.06
 17.54
 5.17
 13.99
 36.46
San Jose Earthquakes 5.80
 4.93
 8.53
 9.75
 8.97
 16.83
 17.85
 36.80
New England Revolution 12.40
 10.00
 11.63
 9.50
 9.66
 12.52
 14.78
 37.38
Houston Dynamo 8.13
 14.73
 11.69
 13.81
 12.77
 7.71
 6.75
 39.24
D.C. United 19.47
 16.47
 18.31
 5.91
 7.49
 17.24
 7.45
 39.73
New York Red Bulls 14.27
 7.73
 11.64
 4.68
 10.05
 6.52
 5.58
 40.26
New York City FC * 10.53
 11.87
 11.34
 15.47
 --
 --
 --
 40.26
Orlando City * 15.87
 13.27
 14.94
 14.21
 --
 --
 --
 42.73
Colorado Rapids 16.67
 19.13
 18.14
 17.38 11.54 9.88 12.85 50.59
Philadelphia Union 15.80
 18.33
 17.65
 18.07 11.85 10.45 15.19 51.82
Chicago Fire 20.00
 18.40
 19.63
 17.71
 15.54
 14.35
 7.91
 56.38

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 10 for missing years)

Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.

Team
 		Best
Avg
 Worst
Avg
 Best
Pos		 Worst
Pos
Chicago Fire
 19.25
 20.00
 19
 20
Colorado Rapids
 16.67
 19.60
 18
 20
Columbus Crew SC
 8.05
 11.93
 7
 11
D.C. United
 17.15
 19.47
 17
 19
FC Dallas
 2.55
 8.93
 1
 8
Houston Dynamo
 8.13
 15.25
 7
 16
LA Galaxy
 3.80
 7.67
 3
 6
Montreal Impact
 1.13
 6.20
 1
 5
New England Revolution
 10.85
 12.40
 9
 12
New York City FC
 10.53
 12.15
 9
 13
New York Red Bulls
 9.00
 14.27
 8
 13
Orlando City
 14.00
 15.87
 14
 16
Philadelphia Union
 15.80
 19.50
 15
 18
Portland Timbers
 2.35
 4.33
 2
 3
Real Salt Lake
 11.20
 14.05
 10
 15
San Jose Earthquakes
 5.80
 11.25
 5
 11
Seattle Sounders
 11.75
 16.47
 12
 17
Sporting Kansas City
 3.13
 6.85
 2
 6
Toronto FC
 4.67
 5.50
 4
 4
Vancouver Whitecaps
 11.30
 15.40
 10
 14
  • Largest Range (position): 9 (Houston)
  • Smallest Range (position): 0 (Toronto)
  • 2 teams have been ranked first
  • 2 teams have been ranked last

With only 2 weeks on the books things are very fluid on all tables.  As the weeks progress there will be less major jumps.

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