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MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 2
A lot of late results came in the day after the last article; the averages ended up with 22 sites! Wk 1 totals and order have been adjusted - Portland takes first for week 1!
Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":
"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14
Sites Used:
- Who Scored (whoscored.com)
- Squawka (squawka.com)
- Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
- Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html) - No ranking Wk 2
- Football Database (footballdatabase.com/ranking/north-america/1)
- Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
- ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
- The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
- Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
- Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking, posted on reddit.com/r/mls)
- NYCFC Blog (skybluesofny.com) - No ranking Wk 2
- MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) - No ranking Wk 2
- SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
- Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
- Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
- Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls)
- Soccer Information Network (soccerinformationnetwork.com/category/mls-power-rankings/) - No ranking Wk 2
- Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
- The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
- Altius Directory (altiusdirectory.com/Sports/mls-power-rankings.php) - No ranking Wk 2
- MLSfix (mlsfix.com) - No ranking Wk 2
- Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
- Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias. Each week I'll also be listing the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.
As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!
Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.
Wk2 |
Wk1 |
2016 Preseason |
Team |
Wk2 Avg |
Wk1 Avg |
2016 Preseason |
Worst |
Best |
Range |
1 |
5 |
8 |
Montreal | 1.13 |
6.20 |
7.85 |
9 |
1 |
8 |
2 |
6 |
9 |
Kansas City | 3.13 |
6.85 |
9.00 |
6 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
Portland | 4.33 |
2.35 |
2.00 |
10 |
2 |
8 |
4 |
4 |
10 |
Toronto | 4.67 |
5.50 |
9.69 |
17 |
2 |
15 |
5 |
10 |
14 |
San Jose | 5.80 |
11.25 |
13.46 |
11 |
2 |
9 |
6 |
3 |
5 |
Los Angeles | 7.67 |
3.80 |
6.08 |
12 |
1 |
11 |
7 |
16 |
17 |
Houston | 8.13 |
15.25 |
15.77 |
14 |
2 |
12 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
Dallas | 8.93 |
2.55 |
3.46 |
17 |
2 |
15 |
9 |
13 |
15 |
New York FC | 10.53 |
12.15 |
14.92 |
19 |
6 |
13 |
10 |
15 |
16 |
Salt Lake | 11.20 |
14.05 |
15.23 |
14 |
4 |
10 |
11 |
7 |
4 |
Columbus | 11.93 |
8.05 |
3.62 |
20 |
6 |
14 |
12 |
9 |
11 |
New England | 12.40 |
10.85 |
10.46 |
17 |
7 |
10 |
13 |
8 |
2 |
New York RB | 14.27 |
9.00 |
2.85 |
20 |
6 |
14 |
14 |
11 |
6 |
Vancouver | 15.40 |
11.30 |
6.54 |
19 |
10 |
9 |
15 |
18 |
18 |
Philadelphia | 15.80 |
19.50 |
17.77 |
19 |
9 |
10 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
Orlando | 15.87 |
14.00 |
12.62 |
18 |
11 |
7 |
17 |
12 |
7 |
Seattle | 16.47 |
11.75 |
6.92 |
19 |
3 |
16 |
18 |
20 |
20 |
Colorado | 16.67 |
19.60 |
19.38 |
19 |
8 |
11 |
19 |
17 |
13 |
D. C. | 19.47 |
17.15 |
12.85 |
20 |
10 |
10 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
Chicago | 20.00 |
19.25 |
18.92 |
20 |
11 |
9 |
- Largest Rise: Houston +9
- Largest Fall: Dallas -6
- Largest Range: Toronto & Dallas (15)
- Smallest Range: Kansas City (5)
Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above. The best and worst # of matches is indicated. Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).
Site |
# Exact |
1 off |
2 off |
3+ off |
Furthest off |
most bias vs |
most bias for |
Who Scored |
3 |
3 |
4 |
10 |
CHI -9 |
NYRB +7.86 |
CHI -9.13 |
Squawka |
4 |
6 |
2 |
8 |
COL -9 FCD +9 |
NYRB +8.36 |
COL -7.14 |
Jeff Sagarin |
2 |
7 |
1 |
10 |
COL -10 |
CLB +6.01 |
COL -5.64 |
Sports Club Stats |
NA |
NA | NA | NA | NA | NYRB +6.36 |
NYFC -7.34 |
Football Database |
4 |
3 |
0 |
13 |
SEA -14 |
TFC +11.91 |
SEA -11.78 |
Sports Illustrated | 6 |
8 |
1 |
5 |
3@ +/-4 |
SJE +2.47 | NYRB -5.31 |
ESPN |
7 |
1 |
5 |
7 |
NYRB -6 |
SJE +4.14 |
NYRB -6.97 |
The Mane Land | 2 |
6 |
5 |
7 |
NYRB -6 |
SJE +5.14 | NYRB -6.97 |
Major League Soccer | 4 |
8 |
3 |
5 |
NYFC +4 |
SKC +3.01 | VAN -5.35 |
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes | 4 |
9 |
4 |
3 |
3@ +/-4 | TFC +4.24 | NYRB -4.64 |
NYCFC Blog |
NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | RSL +3.87 |
CLB -6.49 |
MLS Fantasy Boss |
NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | TFC +8.41 |
SEA -9.61 |
Soccer America | 3 |
3 |
3 |
11 |
3@ +/-7 | NYRB +5.86 | RSL -4.63 |
Soccer By Ives | 3 |
7 |
4 |
6 |
SEA -5 |
MON +3.33 | SEA -5.78 |
Reddit r/MLS | 4 |
10 |
3 |
3 |
3@ +/-3 | HOU +2.64 | ORL -2.94 |
Bleacher Report |
4 |
4 |
1 |
11 |
NYRB -7 |
NYFC +3.16 |
NYRB -6.14 |
Soccer Information Network |
NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | HOU +4.81 |
SEA -7.11 |
Seattle Times |
5 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
NER +5 |
NER +2.37 |
VAN -6.35 |
The Score | 6 |
6 |
6 |
2 |
NER -4 NYFC +4 |
SJE +3.47 | NYRB -6.97 |
Altius Directory |
NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | POR +11.66 |
NYRB -10.64 |
MLSfix |
NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | TFC -4.91 |
DCU -6.31 |
Hot Footy | 7 |
8 |
1 |
4 |
NYRB -4 HOU +4 |
RSL +2.37 |
NYRB -3.14 |
Power Rankings & More | 3 |
0 |
4 |
13 |
NYRB +7 |
LAG +3.76 |
DCU -4.81 |
Site |
# Exact |
1 off |
2 off | 3+ off |
Furthest off |
most bias vs |
most bias for |
- Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker): Hot Footy with 15 within 1
- Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off as tiebreaker): Power Rankings & More on the 2 off tiebreaker
- Site with Worst Bias VS: Football Database (TFC +11.91)
- Site with Worst Bias FOR: Football Database (SEA -11.78
- Site with Least Bias VS: Seattle Times (NER +2.37), Hot Footy (RSL +2.37)
- Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit/r/MLS (ORL -2.94)
Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount. The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.
Team |
Week 2 |
Week 1 |
2016
(run. avg)
|
2015 Avg |
2014 Avg |
2013 Avg |
2012 Avg |
Weighted Pts |
Sporting Kansas City | 3.13 |
6.87 |
4.99 |
6.35 |
5.64 |
4.48 |
3.07 |
17.94 |
LA Galaxy | 7.67 |
3.73 |
5.74 |
4.51 |
5.23 |
5.15 |
8.39 |
18.39 |
FC Dallas | 8.93 |
2.20 | 5.74 |
4.64 |
6.35 |
8.58 |
12.88 |
22.19 |
Portland Timbers | 4.33 |
2.27 |
3.34 |
9.45 |
11.64 |
5.83 |
15.88 |
27.46 |
Seattle Sounders | 16.47 |
11.20 |
14.11 |
6.07 | 2.86 |
9.38 |
5.07 |
27.68 |
Real Salt Lake | 11.20 |
13.40 |
12.63 |
12.43 |
4.12 |
4.58 |
3.70 |
30.12 |
Vancouver Whitecaps | 15.40 |
10.87 |
13.35 |
5.09 |
7.98 |
10.33 |
8.95 |
31.32 |
Toronto FC | 4.67 |
4.93 |
5.09 |
9.75 |
8.97 |
16.83 |
17.85 |
33.47 |
Columbus Crew SC | 11.93 |
19.13 |
9.99 |
8.75 |
9.60 |
12.81 |
11.70 |
34.40 |
Montreal Impact | 1.13 |
6.07 |
3.67 |
15.06 |
17.54 |
5.17 |
13.99 |
36.46 |
San Jose Earthquakes | 5.80 |
4.93 |
8.53 |
9.75 |
8.97 |
16.83 |
17.85 |
36.80 |
New England Revolution | 12.40 |
10.00 |
11.63 |
9.50 |
9.66 |
12.52 |
14.78 |
37.38 |
Houston Dynamo | 8.13 |
14.73 |
11.69 |
13.81 |
12.77 |
7.71 |
6.75 |
39.24 |
D.C. United | 19.47 |
16.47 |
18.31 |
5.91 |
7.49 |
17.24 |
7.45 |
39.73 |
New York Red Bulls | 14.27 |
7.73 |
11.64 |
4.68 |
10.05 |
6.52 |
5.58 |
40.26 |
New York City FC * | 10.53 |
11.87 |
11.34 |
15.47 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
40.26 |
Orlando City * | 15.87 |
13.27 |
14.94 |
14.21 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
42.73 |
Colorado Rapids | 16.67 |
19.13 |
18.14 |
17.38 | 11.54 | 9.88 | 12.85 | 50.59 |
Philadelphia Union | 15.80 |
18.33 |
17.65 |
18.07 | 11.85 | 10.45 | 15.19 | 51.82 |
Chicago Fire | 20.00 |
18.40 |
19.63 |
17.71 |
15.54 |
14.35 |
7.91 |
56.38 |
* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 10 for missing years)
Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.
Team |
Best Avg |
Worst Avg |
Best Pos |
Worst Pos |
Chicago Fire |
19.25 |
20.00 |
19 |
20 |
Colorado Rapids |
16.67 |
19.60 |
18 |
20 |
Columbus Crew SC |
8.05 |
11.93 |
7 |
11 |
D.C. United |
17.15 |
19.47 |
17 |
19 |
FC Dallas |
2.55 |
8.93 |
1 |
8 |
Houston Dynamo |
8.13 |
15.25 |
7 |
16 |
LA Galaxy |
3.80 |
7.67 |
3 |
6 |
Montreal Impact |
1.13 |
6.20 |
1 |
5 |
New England Revolution |
10.85 |
12.40 |
9 |
12 |
New York City FC |
10.53 |
12.15 |
9 |
13 |
New York Red Bulls |
9.00 |
14.27 |
8 |
13 |
Orlando City |
14.00 |
15.87 |
14 |
16 |
Philadelphia Union |
15.80 |
19.50 |
15 |
18 |
Portland Timbers |
2.35 |
4.33 |
2 |
3 |
Real Salt Lake |
11.20 |
14.05 |
10 |
15 |
San Jose Earthquakes |
5.80 |
11.25 |
5 |
11 |
Seattle Sounders |
11.75 |
16.47 |
12 |
17 |
Sporting Kansas City |
3.13 |
6.85 |
2 |
6 |
Toronto FC |
4.67 |
5.50 |
4 |
4 |
Vancouver Whitecaps |
11.30 |
15.40 |
10 |
14 |
- Largest Range (position): 9 (Houston)
- Smallest Range (position): 0 (Toronto)
- 2 teams have been ranked first
- 2 teams have been ranked last
With only 2 weeks on the books things are very fluid on all tables. As the weeks progress there will be less major jumps.