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Power Ranking Averages - Week 3

18 sites published rankings, and yet another team rises to first.

Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports


MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 3

More late results came in the day after the last article; for future rankings I'll just include them as the current week's rank if they continue to publish on Friday.  18 sites published for Week 3.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Squawka (squawka.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html) - No ranking Wk 3
  • Football Database (footballdatabase.com/ranking/north-america/1)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking, posted on reddit.com/r/mls)
  • NYCFC Blog (skybluesofny.com)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) - No ranking Wk 3
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls)
  • Soccer Information Network (soccerinformationnetwork.com/category/mls-power-rankings/) - No ranking Wk 3
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Altius Directory (altiusdirectory.com/Sports/mls-power-rankings.php) - No ranking Wk 3
  • MLSfix (mlsfix.com) - No ranking Wk 3
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  Each week I'll also be listing the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!


Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk3 Wk2 Wk1
Team
Wk3
Avg
Wk2
Avg
Wk1
Avg
Worst
Best
Range
1
2
6
Kansas City 1.63
3.13
6.85
6
1
5
2
1
5
Montreal 3.13
1.13
6.20
10
1
9
3
6
3
Los Angeles 3.94
7.67
3.80
7
1
6
4
8
2
Dallas 4.44
8.93
2.55
11
1
10
5
3
1
Portland 5.69
4.33
2.35
13
2
11
6
4
4
Toronto 7.56
4.67
5.50
17
3
14
7
15
18
Philadelphia 8.44
15.80
19.50
15
2
13
8
5
10
San Jose 8.88
5.80
11.25
13
5
8
9
10
15
Salt Lake 10.44
11.20
14.05
16
3
13
10
7
16
Houston 10.63
8.13
15.25
14
1
13
11
16
14
Orlando 12.06
15.87
14.00
16
4
12
12
13
8
New York RB 12.38
14.27
9.00
20
6
14
13
14
11
Vancouver 13.31
15.40
11.30
19
8
11
14
9
13
New York FC 14.56
10.53
12.15
19
7
12
15
11
7
Columbus 15.25
11.93
8.05
19
6
13
16
18
20
Colorado 16.19
16.67
19.60
19
7
12
17
12
9
New England 17.38
12.40
10.85
20
9
11
18
17
12
Seattle 18.88
16.47
11.75
20
3
17
19
19
17
D. C. 19.19
19.47
17.15
20
11
9
20
20
19
Chicago 19.69
20.00
19.25
20
14
6
  • Largest Rise: Philadelphia +8
  • Largest Fall: New York FC / New England -5
  • Largest Range: Seattle (17)
  • Smallest Range: Kansas City (5)



Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
# Exact
1 off
2 off
3+ off Furthest off
most bias vs
most bias for
Who Scored
4
1
2
13
COL, HOU
NYRB +7.84
CHI -7.55
Squawka
2
2
4
12
TFC
NYRB +8.17
COL -6.36
Jeff Sagarin
3
8
3
6
POR
POR +4.81
COL -5.69
Sports Club Stats
NA




NYRB +6.17
NYFC -8.37
Football Database
4
0
2
14
SEA
TFC +10.96
SEA -13.08
Sports Illustrated 6
3
6
5
RSL
RSL +3.23 NYRB -4.83
ESPN
4
8
2
6
RSL
RSL +3.98
NYRB -6.83
The Mane Land 4
8
2
6
PHI
SJE +3.91 NYRB -6.83
Major League Soccer 4
5
8
3
LAG, NYRB, PHI
SKC +2.38 VAN -4.44
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes 3
7
5
5
CLB
HOU +3.15 CLB -4.42
NYCFC Blog
6
5
6
3
HOU, PHI, SJE
TFC +2.29
VAN -4.44
MLS Fantasy Boss
NA




TFC +6.29
SEA -9.91
Soccer America 3
1
8
8
RSL
NYRB +4.50 RSL -4.44
Soccer By Ives 5
10
2
3
TFC
MON +2.46 SEA -5.08
Reddit r/MLS 8
9
3
0
DCU, NYFC, SEA
HOU +1.90 CLB -2.17
Bleacher Report
5
6
4
5
VAN
NYFC +2.63
NYRB -4.83
Soccer Information Network
NA




PHI +5.47
SEA -8.58
Seattle Times
2
15
2
1
VAN
NER +1.78
VAN -5.44
The Score 8
6
3
3
NYRB
SJE +3.16 NYRB -6.33
Altius Directory
NA




POR +10.81
NYRB -10.83
MLSfix
NA




TFC -2.63
NYFC -5.37
Hot Footy 12
4
0
4
NYFC
PHI +2.14
NYFC -3.37
Power Rankings & More 1
4
2
13
ORL, POR
FCD +3.46
PHI -5.20
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker): Hot Footy with 12 exact matches to the average.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off, and 1 off as tiebreaker): Power Rankings & More on the 3rd tiebreaker (1 off).
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Altius -INACTIVE (POR 10.81 worse), but for ACTIVE sites Football Database ranked TFC 10.96 from avg (though that is nearly 1 point better than last week).
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: Football Database with SEA 13.08 places from avg (getting worse with Seattle's current form)
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Seattle Times with NER only 1.78 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit/r/MLS with CLB 2.17 places from avg.


Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.  The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team
Week
3
Week
2
Week
1
2016
(run. avg)
2015
Avg
2014
Avg
2013
Av
g
2012
Avg

Weighted
Pts
Sporting Kansas City 3.87
3.13
6.87
3.87
6.35
5.64
4.48
3.07
16.82
LA Galaxy 5.09
7.67
3.73
5.09
4.51
5.23
5.15
8.39
17.74
FC Dallas 5.21
8.93
2.20 5.21
4.64
6.35
8.58
12.88
21.66
New York Red Bulls 11.83
14.27
7.73
11.83
4.68
10.05
6.52
5.58
28.23
Portland Timbers 4.19
4.33
2.27
4.19
9.45
11.64
5.83
15.88
28.31
Seattle Sounders 15.58
16.47
11.20
15.58
6.07 2.86
9.38
5.07
29.15
Real Salt Lake 11.77
11.20
13.40
11.77
12.43
4.12
4.58
3.70
29.26
Vancouver Whitecaps 13.44
15.40
10.87
13.44
5.09
7.98
10.33
8.95
31.41
Toronto FC 6.04
4.67
4.93
6.04
9.75
8.97
16.83
17.85
34.42
Columbus Crew SC 11.92
11.93
19.13
17.36
8.75
9.60
12.81
11.70
36.33
Montreal Impact 3.54
1.13
6.07
3.54
15.06
17.54
5.17
13.99
36.33
San Jose Earthquakes 8.59
5.80
4.93
8.59
9.75
8.97
16.83
17.85
36.86
Houston Dynamo 11.35
8.13
14.73
11.35
13.81
12.77
7.71
6.75
38.90
New England Revolution 13.55
12.40
10.00
13.55
9.50
9.66
12.52
14.78
39.3
New York City FC * 12.37
10.53
11.87
12.37
15.47
--
--
--
39.79
D.C. United 18.45
19.47
16.47
18.45
5.91
7.49
17.24
7.45
39.87
Orlando City * 13.88
15.87
13.27
13.88
14.21
--
--
--
40.17
Philadelphia Union 14.53
15.80
18.33
14.53
18.07
11.85
10.45
15.19
48.07
Colorado Rapids 17.36
16.67
19.13
17.36
17.38 11.54 9.88 12.85 49.81
Chicago Fire 19.55
20.00
18.40
19.55
17.71
15.54
14.35
7.91
56.30

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)


Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.

Team
Best
Avg
Worst
Avg
Best
Pos
Worst
Pos
Chicago Fire
19.25
19.71
19
20
Colorado Rapids
16.19
19.60
16
20
Columbus Crew SC
8.05
15.25
7
15
D.C. United
17.15
19.19
17
19
FC Dallas
2.55
8.65
1
8
Houston Dynamo
8.18
15.25
7
16
LA Galaxy
3.80
7.53
3
6
Montreal Impact
1.29
6.20
1
5
New England Revolution
10.85
17.38
9
17
New York City FC
10.41
14.56
9
14
New York Red Bulls
9.00
14.12
8
13
Orlando City
12.06
15.59
11
16
Philadelphia Union
8.44
19.50
7
18
Portland Timbers
2.35
5.69
2
5
Real Salt Lake
10.44
14.05
9
15
San Jose Earthquakes
5.65
11.25
5
14
Seattle Sounders
11.75
18.88
12
18
Sporting Kansas City
1.63
6.85
1
6
Toronto FC
5.06
7.56
4
6
Vancouver Whitecaps
11.30
15.71
10
14
  • Largest Range (position): 9 (Houston)
  • Smallest Range (position): 1 (Chicago)
  • 3 teams have been ranked first
  • 2 teams have been ranked last