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Power Ranking Averages - Week 4

Only 14 sites published this week, and very little movement on the table. Kansas City retains first.

By Kreg Asay
Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports


MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 4

Little movement on the table due to only 3 games.  14 sites published for Week 4, the ratings for 2 sites that published last Friday are being used for this week.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Squawka (squawka.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html) - No ranking since Wk 1
  • Football Database (footballdatabase.com/ranking/north-america/1)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com) - No ranking Wk 4
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking, posted on reddit.com/r/mls) - No ranking Wk 4
  • NYCFC Blog (skybluesofny.com) - No ranking Wk 4
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) - Wk 3 late, using it as wk 4
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls)
  • Soccer Information Network (soccerinformationnetwork.com/category/mls-power-rankings/) - No ranking since Wk 1
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news) - No ranking Wk 4
  • Altius Directory (altiusdirectory.com/Sports/mls-power-rankings.php) - No ranking since Wk 1
  • MLSfix (mlsfix.com) - Wk 3 late, using it as wk 4
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer) - No ranking Wk 4
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls) - No ranking Wk 4

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  Each week I'll also be listing the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk4 Wk3 Wk2 Team
Wk4
Avg
Wk3
Avg
Wk2
Avg 		Worst
 		Best
 		Range
1
 1
 2
 Kansas City 2.00
 1.63
 3.12
 7
 1
 6
2
 4
 8
 Dallas 2.50
 4.44
 8.65
 7
 1
 6
3
 2
 1
 Montreal 3.75
 3.13
 1.29
 11
 1
 10
4
 3
 6
 Los Angeles 4.50
 3.94
 7.53
 7
 1
 6
5
 5
 3
 Portland 5.75
 5.69
 4.53
 13
 1
 12
6
 6
 4
 Toronto 8.58
 7.56
 5.06
 18
 4
 14
7
 8
 5
 San Jose 9.33
 8.88
 5.65
 12
 6
 6
8
 7
 15
 Philadelphia 9.42
 8.44
 15.65
 15
 4
 11
9
 9
 10
 Salt Lake 10.25
 10.44
 10.82
 16
 3
 13
10
 11
 16
 Orlando 11.25
 12.06
 15.59
 16
 7
 9
11
 13
 14
 Vancouver 11.67
 13.31
 15.71
 16
 6
 10
12
 10
 7
 Houston 12.00
 10.63
 8.18
 14
 5
 9
13
 12
 13
 New York RB 12.75
 12.38
 14.12
 20
 5
 15
14
 14
 9
 New York FC 15.42
 14.56
 10.41
 19
 8
 11
15
 15
 11
 Columbus 16.00
 15.25
 12.47
 19
 7
 12
16
 16
 18
 Colorado 16.42
 16.19
 16.29
 19
 8
 11
17
 17
 12
 New England 17.00
 17.38
 12.41
 18
 10
 8
18
 18
 17
 Seattle 18.67
 18.88
 16.12
 20
 4
 16
19
 19
 19
 D. C. 20.00
 19.19
 19.00
 20
 13
 7
19
 20
 20
 Chicago 20.00
 19.69
 19.71
 20
 15
 5
  • Largest Rise: Dallas/Vancouver +2
  • Largest Fall: Houston -2
  • Largest Range: Seattle (16)
  • Smallest Range: Chicago (5)


Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 		# Exact
 		1 off
 		2 off
 3+ off Furthest off
 		most bias vs
 		most bias for
Who Scored
 3
 4
 2
 11
 COL
 NYRB +7.69
 HOU -7.27
Squawka
 2
 3
 4
 11
 TFC
 NYRB +7.94
 COL -6.13
Jeff Sagarin
 5
 4
 5
 6
 POR
 POR +5.42
 COL -5.38
Sports Club Stats
 NA



NYRB +5.94
 NYFC -9.14
Football Database
 0
 3
 3
 14
 SEA
 TFC +10.32
 SEA -13.56
Sports Illustrated NA



RSL +3.61 NYRB -5.06
ESPN
 4
 8
 1
 7
 NYRB/RSL
 RSL +4.41
 NYRB -6.86
The Mane Land 4
 7
 3
 6
 NYRB/PHI
 PHI +3.55 NYRB -6.86
Major League Soccer 3
 8
 7
 2
 NYRB
 HOU +1.88 VAN -4.44
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes NA



HOU +2.98 CLB -5.44
NYCFC Blog
 NA



PHI +2.75
 CLB -5.27
MLS Fantasy Boss
 1
 5
 3
 11
 NYRB
 TFC +5.07
 SEA -9.36
Soccer America 1
 7
 4
 8
 RSL
 NYRB +3.69 RSL -5.89
Soccer By Ives 9
 5
 3
 3
 TFC
 MON +1.81 SEA -4.56
Reddit r/MLS 6
 12
 1
 1
 PHI
 HOU +1.68 CLB -2.14
Bleacher Report
 6
 8
 3
 3
 NYRB/RSL/VAN
 NYFC +2.11
 NYRB -4.31
Soccer Information Network
 NA



PHI +6.75
 CLB -9.44
Seattle Times
 8
 8
 3
 1
 VAN
 NER +1.59
 VAN -5.00
The Score NA



SKC +3.10 NYRB -6.56
Altius Directory
 NA



POR +10.42
 SEA -11.36
MLSfix
 1
 8
 3
 8
 TFC
 TFC -2.82
 NYFC -5.64
Hot Footy NA



PHI +3.42
 NYFC -4.14
Power Rankings & More NA



FCD +4.13
 PHI -3.92
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker): Soccer By Ives with 9 exact matches to the average.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off, and 1 off as tiebreaker): Football Database with 14 off by 3+.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Altius -INACTIVE (POR 10.42 worse), but for ACTIVE sites Football Database ranked TFC 10.32 from avg (improved by 0.6 from last week).
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: Football Database with SEA 13.56 places from avg (getting worse with Seattle's current form)
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Seattle Times with NER only 1.59 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit/r/MLS with CLB 2.14 places from avg.

Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.  The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team
 		Week
4
 Week
3
 Week
2
2015
Avg
5 Yr
Avg
 Weighted
Pts
Sporting Kansas City 3.40
 3.87
 3.13
 6.35
 4.59
 16.35
LA Galaxy 4.94
 5.09
 7.67
 4.51
 5.64
 17.59
FC Dallas 4.54
 5.21
 8.93
 4.64
 7.40
 20.99
New York Red Bulls 12.06
 11.83
 14.27
 4.68
 7.78
 28.46
Portland Timbers 4.58
 4.19
 4.33
 9.45
 9.48
 28.70
Real Salt Lake 11.39
 11.77
 11.20
 12.43
 7.24
 28.88
Seattle Sounders 16.36
 15.58
 16.47
 6.07
 7.95
 29.93
Vancouver Whitecaps 13.00
 13.44
 15.40
 5.09
 9.07
 30.97
Toronto FC 6.68
 6.04
 4.67
 9.75
 12.02
 35.06
Montreal Impact 3.59
 3.54
 1.13
 15.06
 11.07
 36.38
San Jose Earthquakes 8.78
 8.59
 5.80
 9.75
 10.02
 37.05
Columbus Crew SC 12.94
 11.92
 11.93
 8.75
 11.16
 37.35
Houston Dynamo 11.52
 11.35
 8.13
 13.81
 10.51
 39.07
Orlando City * 13.23
 13.88
 15.87
 14.21
 10.89
 39.52
New England Revolution 14.41
 13.55
 12.40
 9.50
 12.17
 40.16
D.C. United 18.88
 18.45
 19.47
 5.91
 11.39
 40.30
New York City FC * 13.14
 12.37
 10.53
 15.47
 11.12
 40.56
Philadelphia Union 13.25
 14.53
 15.80
 18.07
 13.76
 47.42
Colorado Rapids 17.13
 17.36
 16.67
 17.38
 13.76
 49.58
Chicago Fire 19.73
 19.55
 20.00
 17.71
 15.05
 56.48

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.

Team
 		Best
Avg
 Worst
Avg
 Best
Pos		 Worst
Pos
Chicago Fire
 19.25
 20.00
 19
 20
Colorado Rapids
 16.19
 19.60
 16
 20
Columbus Crew SC
 8.05
 16.00
 7
 15
D.C. United
 17.15
 20.00
 17
 19
FC Dallas
 2.50
 8.65
 1
 8
Houston Dynamo
 8.18
 15.25
 7
 16
LA Galaxy
 3.80
 7.53
 3
 6
Montreal Impact
 1.29
 6.20
 1
 5
New England Revolution
 10.85
 17.38
 9
 17
New York City FC
 10.41
 15.42
 9
 14
New York Red Bulls
 9.00
 14.12
 8
 13
Orlando City
 11.25
 15.59
 10
 16
Philadelphia Union
 8.44
 19.50
 7
 18
Portland Timbers
 2.35
 5.75
 2
 5
Real Salt Lake
 10.25
 14.05
 9
 15
San Jose Earthquakes
 5.65
 11.25
 5
 11
Seattle Sounders
 11.75
 18.88
 12
 18
Sporting Kansas City
 1.63
 6.85
 1
 6
Toronto FC
 5.06
 8.58
 4
 6
Vancouver Whitecaps
 11.30
 15.71
 10
 14
  • Largest Range (position): 9 (Houston)
  • Smallest Range (position): 1 (Chicago)
  • 3 teams have been ranked first
  • 2 teams have been ranked last

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