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Power Ranking Averages - Week 6

17 of 22 sites published, one site has been removed. Philly makes a leap, and Vancouver tumbles.

By Kreg Asay
Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports


MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 6

17 of 22 sites published for Week 6.  The Football Database site has been removed from the averages; after consideration I agreed with some who commented via Reddit that it wasn't a true 'weekly' ranking, and more of a long-term ranking.  Averages have been adjusted retroactively.

Two sites will be dropped next week if they don't publish (Soccer Info. Network & Altius Directory).

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Squawka (squawka.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking, posted on reddit.com/r/mls) - No ranking Wk 5
  • NYCFC Blog (skybluesofny.com) - No ranking Wk 5
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Soccer Information Network (soccerinformationnetwork.com/category/mls-power-rankings/) - No ranking since Wk 1
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Altius Directory (altiusdirectory.com/Sports/mls-power-rankings.php) - No ranking since Wk 1
  • MLSfix (mlsfix.com) - No ranking Wk 5
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk6 Wk5 Wk4 Team
Wk6
Avg
Wk5
Avg
Wk4
Avg
Worst
 		Best
 		Range
1
 2
 1
 Kansas City 1.53
 2.80
 1.64
 4
 1
 3
2
 1
 2
 Dallas 2.87
 1.73
 2.09
 7
 1
 6
3
 5
 9
 Salt Lake 3.80
 5.27
 9.91
 13
 1
 12
3
 6
 3
 Montreal 3.80
 5.47
 3.27
 9
 1
 8
5
 3
 4
 Los Angeles 6.13
 4.73
 4.45
 9
 3
 6
6
 11
 8
 Philadelphia 6.93
 11.00
 8.09
 13
 3
 10
7
 3
 10
 Orlando 7.00
 4.80
 10.18
 9
 4
 5
8
 8
 7
 San Jose 8.87
 10.47
 8.82
 17
 6
 11
9
 9
 6
 Toronto 10.67
 10.07
 7.45
 18
 6
 12
10
 10
 5
 Portland 11.73
 11.27
 5.64
 16
 1
 15
11
 14
 17
 New England 12.93
 14.93
 15.73
 17
 7
 10
12
 12
 16
 Colorado 13.60
 11.73
 15.00
 19
 6
 13
13
 13
 12
 Houston 14.27
 13.87
 11.00
 17
 4
 13
14
 7
 11
 Vancouver 15.47
 10.73
 10.36
 19
 10
 9
15
 17
 18
 Seattle 15.60
 17.20
 17.82
 18
 9
 9
16
 15
 14
 New York FC 15.80
 14.80
 13.73
 19
 6
 13
17
 20
 19
 D. C. 16.47
 20.00
 18.82
 19
 12
 7
18
 19
 19
 Chicago 17.33
 17.67
 18.55
 20
 9
 11
19
 16
 13
 New York RB 19.13
 16.60
 12.18
 20
 10
 10
20
 17
 15
 Columbus 20.00
 17.73
 14.91
 20
 7
 13

  • Largest Rise: Philadelphia +5
  • Largest Fall: Vancouver -7
  • Largest Range: Portland (15)
  • Smallest Range: Kansas City (3)


Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 		# Exact
 		1 off
 		2 off
 3+ off Furthest off
 		most bias vs
 		most bias for
Who Scored
 0
 3
 2
 15
 NYFC
 NYRB -5.83
 HOU +7.91
Squawka
 0
 6
 4
 10
 CLB
 TFC -7.25
 CLB +7.49
Jeff Sagarin
 4
 9
 3
 4
 3@ +/-6
 POR -3.71
 COL +5.49
Sports Club Stats
 2
 7
 2
 9
 CHI
 POR -7.04
 CHI +6.70
Sports Illustrated 9
 6
 1
 4
 COL
 COL -3.51 NYRB +4.83
ESPN
 5
 6
 3
 6
 NYRB
 RSL -4.65
 NYRB +7.14
Soccer America 2
 7
 4
 7
 CHI
 NYRB -3.00 RSL +5.21
The Mane Land 3
 9
 1
 7
 COL
 PHI -4.37 NYRB +6.43
Major League Soccer 4
 9
 4
 3
 LAG
 COL -2.54 NYRB +4.14
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes NA



ORL -4.23 CLB +7.32
NYCFC Blog
 NA



PHI -3.12
 VAN +4.48
MLS Fantasy Boss
 2
 3
 5
 10
 POR
 PHI -4.37
 SEA +9.09
Soccer By Ives 4
 11
 3
 2
 TFC
 TFC -2.56 SEA +4.63
Reddit r/MLS 8
 7
 3
 2
 NYFC/VAN
 HOU -1.33
 CLB +1.82
Bleacher Report 4
 8
 4
 4
 HOU
 HOU -2.76
 VAN +3.98
Seattle Times 8
 4
 4
 4
 NYRB
 NYRB -1.18
 VAN 4.15
Soccer Information Network
 NA



PHI -8.37
 CLB +11.32
Hot Footy 8
 8
 1
 3
 DCU/HOU
 PHI -2.97
 NYFC +2.32
The Score 4
 7
 4
 5
 COL
 SJE -2.76 NYRB +5.00
Altius Directory
 NA



POR -8.04
 NYRB +13.00
MLSfix NA



TFC -2.62 NYFC +5.72
Power Rankings & More 5
 6
 2
 7
 CHI
 POR -3.44
 CHI +3.90
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker): Sports Illustrated with 9 exact matches to the average.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off, and 1 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 15 off by 3+.
  • Active Site with Worst Bias VS:  Squawka with TFC 7.25 from avg.
  • Active Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with SEA 9.09 places from avg.
  • Active Site with Least Bias VS: Seattle Times with NYRB only 1.18 places from avg.
  • Active Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit/r/MLS with CLB 1.82 places from avg.

Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.  The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team
Week
6
Week
5
Week
4
2015
Avg
5 Yr
Avg
 Weighted
Pts
Sporting Kansas City 2.80
 3.05
 3.12
 6.35
 4.47
 15.75
LA Galaxy 5.14
 4.94
 4.99
 4.51
 5.68
 17.79
FC Dallas 3.76
 3.94
 4.50
 4.64
 7.24
 20.21
Real Salt Lake 9.21
 10.29
 11.55
 12.43
 6.81
 26.70
Seattle Sounders 16.49
 16.67
 16.54
 6.07
 7.97
 30.06
New York Red Bulls 14.00
 12.97
 12.06
 4.68
 8.17
 30.40
Vancouver Whitecaps 12.98
 12.48
 12.91
 5.09
 9.01
 30.95
Portland Timbers 6.96
 6.01
 4.70
 9.45
 9.95
 31.08
Toronto FC 7.58
 6.96
 6.18
 9.75
 12.20
 35.96
Montreal Impact 3.76
 3.76
 3.33
 15.06
 11.10
 36.55
Orlando City * 10.52
 11.22
 12.83
 14.21
 10.35
 36.81
San Jose Earthquakes 8.91
 8.91
 8.52
 11.14
 10.05
 37.18
Columbus Crew SC 14.82
 13.73
 12.73
 8.75
 11.54
 39.23
Houston Dynamo 12.24
 11.84
 11.33
 13.81
 10.66
 39.79
New England Revolution 14.07
 14.30
 14.14
 9.50
 12.11
 39.82
D.C. United 18.71
 19.15
 18.66
 5.91
 11.36
 40.13
New York City FC * 13.32
 12.82
 12.32
 15.47
 11.16
 40.74
Philadelphia Union 11.63
 12.57
 12.96
 18.07
 13.44
 45.80
Colorado Rapids 15.32
 15.66
 16.65
 17.38
 13.39
 47.77
Chicago Fire 18.70
 18.98
 19.30
 17.71
 14.84
 55.45

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.

Team
 		Best
Avg
 Worst
Avg
 Best
Pos		 Worst
Pos
Chicago Fire
 17.33
 19.75
 18
 20
Colorado Rapids
 11.73
 19.53
 12
 20
Columbus Crew SC
 8.00
 20.00
 7
 20
D.C. United
 16.47
 20.00
 17
 20
FC Dallas
 1.73
 8.81
 1
 8
Houston Dynamo
 8.19
 15.37
 7
 16
LA Galaxy
 3.89
 7.69
 3
 6
Montreal Impact
 1.19
 5.79
 1
 6
New England Revolution
 10.89
 17.56
 9
 17
New York City FC
 10.25
 15.80
 9
 16
New York Red Bulls
 9.32
 19.13
 8
 19
Orlando City
 4.80
 15.38
 3
 16
Philadelphia Union
 6.93
 19.68
 6
 18
Portland Timbers
 2.26
 11.73
 2
 10
Real Salt Lake
 3.80
 14.53
 3
 15
San Jose Earthquakes
 5.31
 11.21
 5
 11
Seattle Sounders
 12.32
 19.25
 12
 18
Sporting Kansas City
 1.31
 6.63
 1
 6
Toronto FC
 4.69
 10.67
 4
 9
Vancouver Whitecaps
 10.36
 16.13
 7
 14
  • Largest Range (position): 9 (Houston)
  • Smallest Range (position): 2 (Chicago)
  • 3 teams have been ranked first
  • 4 teams have been ranked last

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