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Power Ranking Averages Week 5

18 sites published, and only one team kept it's former position.

By Kreg Asay
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports


MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 5

18 sites published for Week 5.  Several teams made very large leaps (for better and worse).

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Squawka (squawka.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Football Database (footballdatabase.com/ranking/north-america/1)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking, posted on reddit.com/r/mls) - No ranking Wk 4
  • NYCFC Blog (skybluesofny.com)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) - No ranking Wk 5
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls)
  • Soccer Information Network (soccerinformationnetwork.com/category/mls-power-rankings/) - No ranking since Wk 1
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news) - No ranking Wk 5
  • Altius Directory (altiusdirectory.com/Sports/mls-power-rankings.php) - No ranking since Wk 1
  • MLSfix (mlsfix.com)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  Each week I'll also be listing the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk5 Wk4 Wk3 Team
Wk5
Avg
Wk4
Avg
Wk3
Avg
Worst
 		Best
 		Range
1
 2
 4
 Dallas 1.88
 2.50
 4.44
 7
 1
 6
2
 1
 1
 Kansas City 3.00
 2.00
 1.63
 8
 1
 7
3
 4
 3
 Los Angeles 4.69
 4.50
 3.94
 7
 1
 6
3
 10
 11
 Orlando 4.69
 11.25
 12.06
 15
 1
 14
5
 9
 9
 Salt Lake 5.19
 10.25
 10.44
 14
 1
 13
6
 3
 2
 Montreal 5.75
 3.75
 3.13
 12
 3
 9
7
 11
 13
 Vancouver 10.56
 11.67
 13.31
 17
 6
 11
8
 7
 8
 San Jose 10.56
 9.33
 8.88
 13
 6
 7
9
 6
 6
 Toronto 10.63
 8.58
 7.56
 18
 5
 13
10
 5
 5
 Portland 10.94
 5.75
 5.69
 18
 2
 16
11
 8
 7
 Philadelphia 11.00
 9.42
 8.44
 17
 2
 15
12
 16
 16
 Colorado 12.25
 16.42
 16.19
 18
 4
 14
13
 12
 10
 Houston 13.81
 12.00
 10.63
 19
 5
 14
14
 17
 17
 New England 14.50
 17.00
 17.38
 18
 8
 10
15
 14
 14
 New York FC 15.44
 15.42
 14.56
 20
 7
 13
16
 13
 12
 New York RB 16.25
 12.75
 12.38
 20
 7
 13
17
 18
 18
 Seattle 17.00
 18.67
 18.88
 20
 3
 17
17
 15
 15
 Columbus 17.00
 16.00
 15.25
 19
 3
 16
19
 19
 20
 Chicago 17.75
 20.00
 19.69
 20
 11
 9
20
 19
 19
 D. C. 20.00
 20.00
 19.19
 20
 13
 7

Rather interesting to note that the top 6 teams are all clustered together, then a huge drop of nearly 5 points before the next group.

  • Largest Rise: Orlando +7
  • Largest Fall: Portland -5
  • Largest Range: Seattle (17)
  • Smallest Range: Dallas/Los Angeles (6)


Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 		# Exact
 		1 off
 		2 off
 3+ off Furthest off
 		most bias vs
 		most bias for
Who Scored
 3
 4
 1
 12
 VAN
 NYRB -6.87
 HOU +7.62
Squawka
 1
 4
 2
 13
 CLB
 NYRB -7.07
 COL +6.50
Jeff Sagarin
 3
 5
 5
 7
 COL
 POR -4.68
 COL +5.50
Sports Club Stats
 0
 5
 5
 10
 PHI
 POR -7.08
 NYFC +6.51
Football Database
 1
 2
 1
 16
 SEA
 TFC -9.63
 SEA +13.67
Sports Illustrated 5
 4
 4 7
 COL
 RSL -3.45 NYRB +4.93
ESPN
 3
 6
 0
 11
 NYRB/VAN
 RSL -4.68
 NYRB +7.10
The Mane Land 8
 3
 4
 5
 COL/PHI
 PHI -4.07 NYRB +6.76
Major League Soccer 6
 3
 3
 8
 NYRB
 COL -2.23 NYRB +4.26
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes NA



ORL -3.26 CLB +6.30
NYCFC Blog
 7
 4
 4
 5
 POR
 PHI -1.99
 VAN +3.88
MLS Fantasy Boss
 NA



TFC -4.21
 SEA +9.50
Soccer America 3
 2
 7
 8
 CHI/COL
 NYRB -3.47 RSL +5.55
Soccer By Ives 7
 4
 6
 3
 TFC
 COL -1.90 SEA +4.50
Reddit r/MLS 8
 8
 3
 1
 NYFC
 HOU -1.48 CLB +1.97
Bleacher Report
 2
 8
 4
 6
 HOU
 HOU -2.58
 VAN +3.98
Soccer Information Network
 NA



PHI -7.24
 CLB +10.30
Seattle Times
 8
 6
 2
 4
 4@+/-3
 NER -1.39
 VAN +4.18
The Score 2
 7
 4
 7
 HOU/SJE
 SJE -2.70 NYRB +5.73
Altius Directory
 NA



POR -9.08
 NYRB +11.93
MLSfix NA



TFC -2.66 NYFC +5.91
Hot Footy 8
 1
 5
 6
 ORL/PHI
 PHI -3.74
 NYFC +3.76
Power Rankings & More 2
 4
 6
 8
 4@+/-6
 FCD -4.13
 PHI +3.92
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker): Reddit/r/MLS with 8 exact matches to the average, and 8 off by 1.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off, and 1 off as tiebreaker): Football Database with 16 off by 3+.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Football Database with TFC 9.63 from avg, (improved by 0.69 from last week).
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: Football Database with SEA 13.67 places from avg (getting worse with Seattle's recent form)
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Seattle Times with NER only 1.39 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit/r/MLS with CLB 1.97 places from avg.

Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.  The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team
Week
5
Week
4
Week
3
2015
Avg
5 Yr
Avg
 Weighted
Pts
Sporting Kansas City 3.33
 2.08
 3.85
 6.35
 4.57
 16.28
LA Galaxy 4.88
 4.58
 5.05
 4.51
 5.63
 17.53
FC Dallas 3.95
 2.33
 5.18
 4.64
 7.28
 20.40
Real Salt Lake 10.15
 10.42
 11.72
 12.43
 7.00
 27.64
New York Red Bulls 12.93
 12.83
 11.86
 4.68
 7.95
 29.33
Portland Timbers 5.92
 5.83
 4.27
 9.45
 9.74
 30.04
Seattle Sounders 16.50
 18.67
 15.60
 6.07
 7.98
 30.07
Vancouver Whitecaps 12.38
 10.92
 13.47
 5.09
 8.95
 30.35
Toronto FC 7.54
 8.67
 6.13
 9.75
 12.19
 35.92
Montreal Impact 4.03
 3.75
 3.56
 15.06
 11.16
 36.82
San Jose Earthquakes 9.10
 9.33
 8.54
 11.14
 10.09
 37.37
Orlando City * 11.49
 11.42
 13.78
 14.21
 10.54
 37.78
Columbus Crew SC 13.80
 16.00
 12.00
 8.75
 11.33
 38.21
Houston Dynamo 12.02
 12.08
 11.40
 13.81
 10.61
 39.57
New England Revolution 14.41
 17.00
 13.52
 9.50
 12.17
 40.16
D.C. United 19.23
 20.00
 18.40
 5.91
 11.46
 40.65
New York City FC * 13.51
 15.33
 12.27
 15.47
 11.20
 40.93
Philadelphia Union 12.76
 9.42
 14.46
 18.07
 13.66
 46.93
Colorado Rapids 16.10
 16.50
 17.26
 17.38
 13.55
 48.55
Chicago Fire 19.31
 20.00
 19.52
 17.71
 14.96
 56.06

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.

Team
 		Best
Avg
 Worst
Avg
 Best
Pos		 Worst
Pos
Chicago Fire
 17.75
 20.00
 19
 20
Colorado Rapids
 12.25
 19.60
 12
 20
Columbus Crew SC
 8.05
 17.00
 7
 17
D.C. United
 17.15
 20.00
 17
 20
FC Dallas
 1.88
 8.65
 1
 8
Houston Dynamo
 8.18
 15.25
 7
 16
LA Galaxy
 3.80
 7.53
 3
 6
Montreal Impact
 1.29
 6.20
 1
 6
New England Revolution
 10.85
 17.38
 9
 17
New York City FC
 10.41
 15.44
 9
 15
New York Red Bulls
 9.00
 16.25
 8
 16
Orlando City
 4.69
 15.59
 3
 16
Philadelphia Union
 8.44
 19.50
 7
 1
Portland Timbers
 2.35
 10.94
 2
 10
Real Salt Lake
 5.19
 14.05
 5
 15
San Jose Earthquakes
 5.65
 11.25
 5
 11
Seattle Sounders
 11.75
 18.88
 12
 18
Sporting Kansas City
 1.59
 6.85
 1
 6
Toronto FC
 5.06
 10.63
 4
 9
Vancouver Whitecaps
 10.56
 15.71
 7
 14
  • Largest Range (position): 9 (Houston)
  • Smallest Range (position): 1 (Chicago)
  • 3 teams have been ranked first
  • 3 teams have been ranked last

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