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Power Ranking Averages - Week 10

LA repeats on top, Chicago returns to bottom; DC drops, and a 3 teams jump

By Kreg Asay
Dan Kennedy raises the roof
Dan Kennedy raises the roof
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

One site dropped for lack of ratings - MLS Fix has not published since week 4; their early ratings will remain, but I won't be tracking them for future ratings.  17 of 20 sites published for Week 10.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Squawka (squawka.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking) - No ranking Wk 10
  • NYCFC Blog (skybluesofny.com) - No ranking Wks 8-10
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls) - No ranking Wk 10
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)

Dropped
MLSfix (mlsfix.com) - No ranking Wks 5-10

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk10 Wk9 Wk8 Team
Wk10
Avg
Wk9
Avg
Wk8
Avg
Worst
 		Best
 		Range
1
 1
 1
 Los Angeles 1.27
 1.47
 1.47
 3
 1
 2
2
 3
 5
 Colorado 2.73
 4.00
 4.73
 10
 1
 9
3
 4
 3
 Toronto 3.13
 4.59
 4.13
 6
 1
 5
4
 2
 4
 Salt Lake 4.80
 2.88
 4.67
 8
 3
 5
5
 6
 6
 Montreal 5.93
 7.12
 7.00
 11
 2
 9
6
 7
 7
 Philadelphia 7.53
 8.00
 7.13
 13
 4
 9
7
 5
 2
 Dallas 8.33
 6.24
 3.53
 11
 3
 8
8
 8
 8
 San Jose 9.07
 7.76
 8.00
 12
 6
 6
9
 12
 15
 Seattle 9.47
 13.24
 16.07
 14
 3
 11
10
 10
 11
 Portland 11.27
 9.53
 12.60
 18
 2
 16
11
 9
 9
 Kansas City 13.00
 9.12
 8.67
 16
 6
 10
12
 11
 10
 Orlando 13.13
 11.82
 10.67
 17
 7
 10
13
 16
 12
 Vancouver 13.20
 16.29
 13.40
 20
 7
 13
14
 17
 19
 New York FC 14.00
 17.71
 19.93
 16
 4
 12
15
 14
 18
 New York RB 14.80
 14.59
 18.60
 19
 8
 11
16
 15
 13
 Columbus 17.47
 15.76
 14.00
 20
 5
 15
17
 13
 14
 D. C. 17.80
 14.71
 14.40
 19
 11
 8
18
 20
 20
 Houston 18.73
 20.00
 20.00
 20
 15
 5
19
 18
 16
 New England 19.13
 17.94
 17.20
 20
 14
 6
20
 19
 17
 Chicago 19.93
 19.06
 17.53
 20
 13
 7
  • Largest Rise: Seattle/Vancouver/New York FC +3
  • Largest Fall: D. C. United -4
  • Largest Range: Portland (16)
  • Smallest Range: Los Angeles (2)

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 		# Exact
 		1 off
 		2 off
 3+ off Furthest off
 		most bias vs
 		most bias for
Who Scored
 3
 3
 3
 11
 NYFC
 NYRB -4.06
 NYFC +7.46
Squawka
 2
 0
 3
 15
 CLB
 TFC -5.71
 CLB +8.74
Jeff Sagarin
 8
 5
 3
 4
 SKC
 POR -2.43
 COL +4.12
Sports Club Stats
 2
 5
 6
 7
 POR
 POR -7.33
 CHI +5.76
Sports Illustrated 2
 6
 4
 8
 NYRB
 COL -2.38 NYRB +4.44
ESPN
 6
 7
 3
 4
 SKC
 RSL -3.30
 NYRB +5.34
Soccer America 7
 4
 5
 4
 CHI/SKC
 NYRB -2.16 CHI +4.62
The Mane Land 4
 7
 7
 2
 VAN
 PHI -3.37 NYRB +4.70
Major League Soccer 5
 5
 5
 5
 NYRB
 COL -2.61 NYRB +4.16
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes NA



RSL -3.63 CLB +6.64
NYCFC Blog
 NA



TFC -3.74
 VAN +4.33
MLS Fantasy Boss
 3
 7
 3
 7
 POR
 PHI -4.60
 SEA +7.98
Soccer By Ives 4
 13
 1
 2
 NYRB
 TFC -2.50 SEA +3.27
Reddit r/MLS 14
 4
 2
 0
 SKC/VAN
 PHI -0.64
 VAN +1.75
Bleacher Report NA



NYFC -1.92
 VAN +3.66
Seattle Times 4
 10
 4
 2
 CLB/POR
 COL -0.68
 VAN +3.16
Power Rankings & More 4
 6
 2
 8
 VAN
 FCFD -2.43 COL +3.56
Hot Footy 7
 8
 3
 2
 PHI/SKC
 PHI -1.93
 DCU +1.87
The Score 6
 8
 3
 3
 VAN
 COL -3.18 NYRB +4.14
Sportify
 5
 5
 5
 5
 NYRB/POR
 SKC -6.65
 COL +6.45
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Reddit r/MLS:  with 14 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off, and 1 off as tiebreaker): Squawka with 15 off by 3+.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Sports Club Stats with POR 7.33 from avg.
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: Squawka with CLB 8.74 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with PHI 0.64 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit/r/MLS with VAN 1.75 places from avg.

Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.  The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team
Week
10
Week
9
Week
8
2015
Avg
5 Yr
Avg
 Weighted
Pts
 		Wk
9 		Wk
8
LA Galaxy 3.96
 4.26
 4.61
 4.51
 5.45
 83.39
 83.09
 82.74
Sporting Kansas City 5.35
 4.50
 3.90
 6.35
 4.98
 81.70
 82.55
 83.13
FC Dallas 4.24
 3.81
 3.49
 4.64
 7.34
 79.31
 79.74
 80.07
Real Salt Lake 6.97
 7.21
 7.75
 12.43
 6.36
 75.54
 75.30
 74.75
Seattle Sounders 15.09
 15.75
 16.06
 6.07
 7.69
 71.34
 70.68
 70.41
New York Red Bulls 15.34
 15.43
 15.52
 4.68
 8.43
 68.26
 68.17
 68.10
Vancouver Whitecaps 13.66
 13.70
 13.38
 5.09
 9.20
 68.37
 68.33
 68.64
Portland Timbers 8.67
 8.43
 8.29
 9.45
 10.29
 67.21
 67.45
 67.65
Toronto FC 6.59
 6.97
 7.29
 9.75
 12.00
 65.03
 64.65
 64.34
Orlando City * 10.71
 10.44
 10.25
 14.21
 10.38
 63.00
 63.27
 63.45
San Jose Earthquakes 8.77
 8.76
 8.86
 11.14
 10.02
 62.96
 62.97
 62.87
Montreal Impact 4.58
 4.40
 4.12
 15.06
 11.27
 62.63
 62.81
 63.12
D.C. United 17.76
 17.75
 18.11
 5.91
 11.17
 60.82
 60.83
 60.45
Columbus Crew SC 15.24
 15.00
 14.92
 8.75
 11.62
 60.36
 60.60
 60.71
New England Revolution 15.16
 14.73
 14.33
 9.50
 12.32
 59.09
 59.52
 59.94
New York City FC * 14.86
 14.96
 14.61
 15.47
 11.47
 57.72
 57.62
 57.96
Houston Dynamo 15.04
 14.64
 13.89
 13.81
 11.22
 57.41
 57.81
 58.58
Colorado Rapids 11.12
 12.03
 13.04
 17.38
 12.55
 56.43
 55.52
 54.49
Philadelphia Union 10.18
 10.45
 10.77
 18.07
 13.15
 55.65
 55.38
 55.05
Chicago Fire 18.62
 18.47
 18.39
 17.71
 14.83
 44.63
 44.78
 44.85

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.

Team
 		Best
Avg
 Worst
Avg
 Best
Pos		 Worst
Pos
Chicago Fire
 17.06
 19.93
 17
 20
Colorado Rapids
 2.73
 19.50
 2
 20
Columbus Crew SC
 8.06
 20.00
 7
 20
D.C. United
 14.56
 20.00
 13
 20
FC Dallas
 1.73
 8.81
 1
 8
Houston Dynamo
 8.19
 20.00
 7
 20
LA Galaxy
 1.27
 7.69
 1
 6
Montreal Impact
 1.19
 7.12
 1
 6
New England Revolution
 11.06
 19.13
 9
 19
New York City FC
 10.25
 19.94
 9
 19
New York Red Bulls
 9.72
 20.00
 8
 20
Orlando City
 4.80
 15.38
 3
 16
Philadelphia Union
 6.94
 19.78
 6
 18
Portland Timbers
 1.94
 12.13
 2
 11
Real Salt Lake
 2.06
 14.67
 2
 15
San Jose Earthquakes
 5.31
 11.06
 5
 12
Seattle Sounders
 9.47
 19.25
 9
 18
Sporting Kansas City
 1.31
 13.00
 1
 11
Toronto FC
 3.13
 10.94
 3
 9
Vancouver Whitecaps
 10.36
 16.29
 7
 16
  • Largest Range (position): 18 (Colorado)
  • Smallest Range (position): 3 (Chicago)
  • 4 teams have been ranked first
  • 6 teams have been ranked last

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