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Week 12 Power Ranking Averages

16 of 20 sites published, and a new team rises to the top.

Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports


MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 12

16 of 20 sites published for Week 12.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Squawka (squawka.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html) * No ranking wk 12
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking) * No ranking wk 12
  • NYCFC Blog (skybluesofny.com) - No ranking Wks 8-12
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls) - No ranking Wks 10-12
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!


Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk12 Wk11 Wk10 Team
Wk12
Avg
Wk11
Avg
Wk10
Avg
Worst
Best
Range
1
2
2
Colorado 1.43
1.67
2.75
9
1
8
2
1
1
Los Angeles 2.57
1.60
1.25
4
1
3
3
3
7
Dallas 3.21
5.07
8.50
8
2
6
4
7
4
Salt Lake 4.93
7.53
4.81
12
3
9
5
6
6
Philadelphia 5.93
6.80
7.50
9
2
7
6
8
8
San Jose 6.71
7.60
8.88
14
4
10
7
4
3
Toronto 7.43
5.27
3.06
11
4
7
8
5
5
Montreal 9.57
6.27
5.81
15
5
10
9
18
15
New York RB 10.07
18.13
14.75
12
6
6
10
9
13
Vancouver 11.07
9.13
13.31
20
5
15
11
13
10
Portland 11.71
14.67
11.06
17
5
12
12
15
12
Orlando 12.93
15.87
13.06
18
10
8
13
11
11
Kansas City 14.36
12.27
12.81
16
3
13
14
12
9
Seattle 14.50
12.73
9.44
18
2
16
15
10
14
New York FC 14.79
10.40
14.13
18
10
8
16
14
17
D. C. U. 17.14
15.47
17.69
19
8
11
17
17
16
Columbus 17.43
17.87
17.19
20
4
16
18
16
19
New England 18.86
17.40
19.19
20
15
5
19
19
18
Houston 20.00
18.27
18.69
20
13
7
19
20
20
Chicago 20.00
20.00
19.88
20
14
6
  • Largest Rise: New York RB +9
  • Largest Fall: New York FC -5
  • Largest Range: Seattle, Columbus (16)
  • Smallest Range: Los Angeles (3)


Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
# Exact
1 off
2 off
3+ off Furthest off
most bias vs
most bias for
Who Scored
1
5
5
9
VAN
VAN -4.76
NYFC +7.00
Squawka
0
2
5
13
CLB
TFC -4.87
CLB +9.37
Jeff Sagarin
2
9
2
7
HOU
POR -2.43
COL +3.36
Sports Club Stats
NA




POR -6.85
CHI +5.95
Sports Illustrated 4
3
4
9
MTL
COL -1.97 NYRB +4.46
ESPN
6
5
5
4
4@ +/-3
SJE -2.82
NYRB +4.51
Soccer America 4
9
4
3
VAN
NYRB -1.70 CHI +4.12
The Mane Land 5
10
2
3
MTL
PHI -3.00 VAN +4.53
Major League Soccer 6
9
3
2
NYFC/PHI
COL -2.24 NYRB +3.82
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes NA




FCD -2.76 CLB +5.33
NYCFC Blog
NA




TFC -3.86
VAN +3.93
MLS Fantasy Boss
4
8
2
6
MTL/POR
PHI -4.66
SEA +7.44
Soccer By Ives 6
9
5
0
5@ +/-2
TFC -2.14 SEA +3.15
Reddit r/MLS 10
8
2
0
NYRB/VAN
PHI -0.54
VAN +1.76
Bleacher Report NA




NYFC -2.28
VAN +3.07
Seattle Times 10
8
1
1
VAN
LAG -0.60
VAN +3.32
Power Rankings & More 6
6
3
5
NYFC
POR -1.87 CHI +3.22
Hot Footy 6
10
2
2
NYFC
PHI -1.82
DCU +1.87
The Score 9
7
3
1
MTL
COL -2.64 NYRB +3.46
Sportify
7
8
1
4
CLB
SKC -6.54
COL +6.13
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Reddit/r/mls:  with 10 exact matches (on tiebreakers)
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off, and 1 off as tiebreaker): Squawka with 13 off by 3+.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Sports Club Stats with POR 6.85 from avg.
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: Squawka with CLB 9.37 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with PHI 0.54 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit/r/MLS with VAN 1.76 places from avg.

Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.  The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team
Week
12
Week
11
Week
10
2015
Avg
5 Yr
Avg
Weighted
Pts
Wk
11
Wk
10
LA Galaxy 3.65
3.75
3.96
5.39
5.41
83.70
83.60
83.39
Sporting Kansas City 6.66
5.96
5.35
5.24
5.10
80.39
81.09
81.72
FC Dallas 4.24
4.33
4.24
7.34
7.36
79.31
79.20
79.29
Real Salt Lake 6.85
7.02
6.97
6.34
6.37
75.66
75.49
75.54
Seattle Sounders 14.84
14.87
15.09
7.64
7.65
71.59
71.56
71.34
Vancouver Whitecaps 13.07
13.26
13.66
9.08
9.12
68.96
68.77
68.36
New York Red Bulls 15.13
15.59
15.34
8.39
8.48
68.47
68.01
68.26
Portland Timbers 9.40
9.19
8.67
10.44
10.40
66.48
66.69
67.23
Toronto FC 6.55
6.47
6.59
11.99
11.97
65.07
65.15
65.03
San Jose Earthquakes 8.49
8.65
8.77
9.96
10.00
63.24
63.08
62.97
Orlando City * 11.32
11.17
10.71
10.51
10.48
62.39
62.54
63.01
Montreal Impact 5.13
4.72
4.58
11.38
11.30
62.08
62.49
62.64
D.C. United 17.51
17.54
17.76
11.12
11.13
61.07
61.04
60.83
Columbus Crew SC 15.62
15.45
15.24
11.70
11.66
59.98
60.15
60.39
New England Revolution 15.66
15.36
15.16
12.42
12.36
58.59
58.89
59.09
New York City FC * 14.50
14.47
14.86
11.39
11.39
58.08
58.11
57.70
Colorado Rapids 9.53
10.26
11.12
12.24
12.38
58.02
57.29
56.43
Houston Dynamo 15.73
15.33
15.04
11.35
11.27
56.72
57.12
57.41
Philadelphia Union 9.54
9.87
10.18
13.02
13.09
56.29
55.96
55.65
Chicago Fire 18.95
18.82
18.62
14.89
14.87
44.30
44.43
44.64

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)


Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.

Team
Best
Avg
Worst
Avg
Best
Pos
Worst
Pos
Chicago Fire
17.06
20.00
17
20
Colorado Rapids
1.43
19.50
1
20
Columbus Crew SC
8.06
20.00
7
20
D.C. United
14.56
20.00
13
20
FC Dallas
1.73
8.81
1
8
Houston Dynamo
8.19
20.00
7
20
LA Galaxy
1.25
7.69
1
6
Montreal Impact
1.19
9.57
1
8
New England Revolution
11.06
19.19
9
19
New York City FC
10.25
19.94
9
19
New York Red Bulls
9.72
20.00
8
20
Orlando City
4.80
15.37
3
16
Philadelphia Union
5.93
19.78
5
18
Portland Timbers
1.94
14.67
2
13
Real Salt Lake
2.06
14.67
2
15
San Jose Earthquakes
5.31
11.06
5
12
Seattle Sounders
9.44
19.25
9
18
Sporting Kansas City
1.31
14.36
1
13
Toronto FC
3.06
10.94
3
9
Vancouver Whitecaps
9.13
16.29
7
16
  • Largest Range (position): 19 (Colorado)
  • Smallest Range (position): 3 (Chicago)
  • 5 teams have been ranked first
  • 6 teams have been ranked last