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MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 12
16 of 20 sites published for Week 12.
Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":
"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14
Sites Used:
- Who Scored (whoscored.com)
- Squawka (squawka.com)
- Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
- Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html) * No ranking wk 12
- Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
- ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
- SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
- The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
- Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
- Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking) * No ranking wk 12
- NYCFC Blog (skybluesofny.com) - No ranking Wks 8-12
- MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
- Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
- Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
- Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls) - No ranking Wks 10-12
- Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
- Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
- Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
- The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
- Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)
You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias. The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion. Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.
As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!
Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.
Wk12 | Wk11 | Wk10 |
Team |
Wk12
Avg
|
Wk11
Avg
|
Wk10
Avg
|
Worst |
Best |
Range |
1 |
2 |
2 |
Colorado | 1.43 |
1.67 |
2.75 |
9 |
1 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
Los Angeles | 2.57 |
1.60 |
1.25 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
7 |
Dallas | 3.21 |
5.07 |
8.50 |
8 |
2 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
4 |
Salt Lake | 4.93 |
7.53 |
4.81 |
12 |
3 |
9 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
Philadelphia | 5.93 |
6.80 |
7.50 |
9 |
2 |
7 |
6 |
8 |
8 |
San Jose | 6.71 |
7.60 |
8.88 |
14 |
4 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
3 |
Toronto | 7.43 |
5.27 |
3.06 |
11 |
4 |
7 |
8 |
5 |
5 |
Montreal | 9.57 |
6.27 |
5.81 |
15 |
5 |
10 |
9 |
18 |
15 |
New York RB | 10.07 |
18.13 |
14.75 |
12 |
6 |
6 |
10 |
9 |
13 |
Vancouver | 11.07 |
9.13 |
13.31 |
20 |
5 |
15 |
11 |
13 |
10 |
Portland | 11.71 |
14.67 |
11.06 |
17 |
5 |
12 |
12 |
15 |
12 |
Orlando | 12.93 |
15.87 |
13.06 |
18 |
10 |
8 |
13 |
11 |
11 |
Kansas City | 14.36 |
12.27 |
12.81 |
16 |
3 |
13 |
14 |
12 |
9 |
Seattle | 14.50 |
12.73 |
9.44 |
18 |
2 |
16 |
15 |
10 |
14 |
New York FC | 14.79 |
10.40 |
14.13 |
18 |
10 |
8 |
16 |
14 |
17 |
D. C. U. | 17.14 |
15.47 |
17.69 |
19 |
8 |
11 |
17 |
17 |
16 |
Columbus | 17.43 |
17.87 |
17.19 |
20 |
4 |
16 |
18 |
16 |
19 |
New England | 18.86 |
17.40 |
19.19 |
20 |
15 |
5 |
19 |
19 |
18 |
Houston | 20.00 |
18.27 |
18.69 |
20 |
13 |
7 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
Chicago | 20.00 |
20.00 |
19.88 |
20 |
14 |
6 |
- Largest Rise: New York RB +9
- Largest Fall: New York FC -5
- Largest Range: Seattle, Columbus (16)
- Smallest Range: Los Angeles (3)
Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above. The best and worst # of matches is indicated. Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).
Site |
# Exact |
1 off |
2 off |
3+ off |
Furthest off |
most bias vs |
most bias for |
Who Scored |
1 |
5 |
5 |
9 |
VAN |
VAN -4.76 |
NYFC +7.00 |
Squawka |
0 |
2 |
5 |
13 |
CLB |
TFC -4.87 |
CLB +9.37 |
Jeff Sagarin |
2 |
9 |
2 |
7 |
HOU |
POR -2.43 |
COL +3.36 |
Sports Club Stats |
NA |
POR -6.85 |
CHI +5.95 |
||||
Sports Illustrated | 4 |
3 |
4 |
9 |
MTL |
COL -1.97 | NYRB +4.46 |
ESPN |
6 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
4@ +/-3 |
SJE -2.82 |
NYRB +4.51 |
Soccer America | 4 |
9 |
4 |
3 |
VAN |
NYRB -1.70 | CHI +4.12 |
The Mane Land | 5 |
10 |
2 |
3 |
MTL |
PHI -3.00 | VAN +4.53 |
Major League Soccer | 6 |
9 |
3 |
2 |
NYFC/PHI |
COL -2.24 | NYRB +3.82 |
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes | NA |
FCD -2.76 | CLB +5.33 | ||||
NYCFC Blog |
NA |
TFC -3.86 |
VAN +3.93 |
||||
MLS Fantasy Boss |
4 |
8 |
2 |
6 |
MTL/POR |
PHI -4.66 |
SEA +7.44 |
Soccer By Ives | 6 |
9 |
5 |
0 |
5@ +/-2 |
TFC -2.14 | SEA +3.15 |
Reddit r/MLS | 10 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
NYRB/VAN |
PHI -0.54 |
VAN +1.76 |
Bleacher Report | NA |
NYFC -2.28 |
VAN +3.07 |
||||
Seattle Times | 10 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
VAN |
LAG -0.60 |
VAN +3.32 |
Power Rankings & More | 6 |
6 |
3 |
5 |
NYFC |
POR -1.87 | CHI +3.22 |
Hot Footy | 6 |
10 |
2 |
2 |
NYFC |
PHI -1.82 |
DCU +1.87 |
The Score | 9 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
MTL |
COL -2.64 | NYRB +3.46 |
Sportify |
7 |
8 |
1 |
4 |
CLB |
SKC -6.54 |
COL +6.13 |
- Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Reddit/r/mls: with 10 exact matches (on tiebreakers)
- Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off, and 1 off as tiebreaker): Squawka with 13 off by 3+.
- Site with Worst Bias VS: Sports Club Stats with POR 6.85 from avg.
- Site with Worst Bias FOR: Squawka with CLB 9.37 places from avg.
- Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with PHI 0.54 places from avg.
- Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit/r/MLS with VAN 1.76 places from avg.
Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount. The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.
Team |
Week
12
|
Week
11
|
Week
10
|
2015
Avg |
5 Yr Avg |
Weighted Pts |
Wk 11 |
Wk 10 |
LA Galaxy | 3.65 |
3.75 |
3.96 |
5.39 |
5.41 |
83.70 |
83.60 |
83.39 |
Sporting Kansas City | 6.66 |
5.96 |
5.35 |
5.24 |
5.10 |
80.39 |
81.09 |
81.72 |
FC Dallas | 4.24 |
4.33 |
4.24 |
7.34 |
7.36 |
79.31 |
79.20 |
79.29 |
Real Salt Lake | 6.85 |
7.02 |
6.97 |
6.34 |
6.37 |
75.66 |
75.49 |
75.54 |
Seattle Sounders | 14.84 |
14.87 |
15.09 |
7.64 |
7.65 |
71.59 |
71.56 |
71.34 |
Vancouver Whitecaps | 13.07 |
13.26 |
13.66 |
9.08 |
9.12 |
68.96 |
68.77 |
68.36 |
New York Red Bulls | 15.13 |
15.59 |
15.34 |
8.39 |
8.48 |
68.47 |
68.01 |
68.26 |
Portland Timbers | 9.40 |
9.19 |
8.67 |
10.44 |
10.40 |
66.48 |
66.69 |
67.23 |
Toronto FC | 6.55 |
6.47 |
6.59 |
11.99 |
11.97 |
65.07 |
65.15 |
65.03 |
San Jose Earthquakes | 8.49 |
8.65 |
8.77 |
9.96 |
10.00 |
63.24 |
63.08 |
62.97 |
Orlando City * | 11.32 |
11.17 |
10.71 |
10.51 |
10.48 |
62.39 |
62.54 |
63.01 |
Montreal Impact | 5.13 |
4.72 |
4.58 |
11.38 |
11.30 |
62.08 |
62.49 |
62.64 |
D.C. United | 17.51 |
17.54 |
17.76 |
11.12 |
11.13 |
61.07 |
61.04 |
60.83 |
Columbus Crew SC | 15.62 |
15.45 |
15.24 |
11.70 |
11.66 |
59.98 |
60.15 |
60.39 |
New England Revolution | 15.66 |
15.36 |
15.16 |
12.42 |
12.36 |
58.59 |
58.89 |
59.09 |
New York City FC * | 14.50 |
14.47 |
14.86 |
11.39 |
11.39 |
58.08 |
58.11 |
57.70 |
Colorado Rapids | 9.53 |
10.26 |
11.12 |
12.24 |
12.38 |
58.02 |
57.29 |
56.43 |
Houston Dynamo | 15.73 |
15.33 |
15.04 |
11.35 |
11.27 |
56.72 |
57.12 |
57.41 |
Philadelphia Union | 9.54 |
9.87 |
10.18 |
13.02 |
13.09 |
56.29 |
55.96 |
55.65 |
Chicago Fire | 18.95 |
18.82 |
18.62 |
14.89 |
14.87 |
44.30 |
44.43 |
44.64 |
* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)
Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.
Team |
Best Avg |
Worst Avg |
Best Pos |
Worst Pos |
Chicago Fire |
17.06 |
20.00 |
17 |
20 |
Colorado Rapids |
1.43 |
19.50 |
1 |
20 |
Columbus Crew SC |
8.06 |
20.00 |
7 |
20 |
D.C. United |
14.56 |
20.00 |
13 |
20 |
FC Dallas |
1.73 |
8.81 |
1 |
8 |
Houston Dynamo |
8.19 |
20.00 |
7 |
20 |
LA Galaxy |
1.25 |
7.69 |
1 |
6 |
Montreal Impact |
1.19 |
9.57 |
1 |
8 |
New England Revolution |
11.06 |
19.19 |
9 |
19 |
New York City FC |
10.25 |
19.94 |
9 |
19 |
New York Red Bulls |
9.72 |
20.00 |
8 |
20 |
Orlando City |
4.80 |
15.37 |
3 |
16 |
Philadelphia Union |
5.93 |
19.78 |
5 |
18 |
Portland Timbers |
1.94 |
14.67 |
2 |
13 |
Real Salt Lake |
2.06 |
14.67 |
2 |
15 |
San Jose Earthquakes |
5.31 |
11.06 |
5 |
12 |
Seattle Sounders |
9.44 |
19.25 |
9 |
18 |
Sporting Kansas City |
1.31 |
14.36 |
1 |
13 |
Toronto FC |
3.06 |
10.94 |
3 |
9 |
Vancouver Whitecaps |
9.13 |
16.29 |
7 |
16 |
- Largest Range (position): 19 (Colorado)
- Smallest Range (position): 3 (Chicago)
- 5 teams have been ranked first
- 6 teams have been ranked last