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Power Ranking Averages - Week 9

One new site added which makes 18 of 21 sites publishing this week. Top 3 retain positions.

By Kreg Asay
Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports


One new site added - Sportify has started doing weekly ELO Power Rankings starting with last week; averages have been updated for last week to include them.  18 of 21 sites published for Week 9.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Squawka (squawka.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking)
  • NYCFC Blog (skybluesofny.com) - No ranking Wks 8-9
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) - No ranking Wk 9
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • MLSfix (mlsfix.com) - No ranking Wks 5-9
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk9 Wk8 Wk7 Team
Wk9
Avg
Wk8
Avg
Wk7
Avg
Worst
 		Best
 		Range
1
 1
 4
 Los Angeles 1.50
 1.47
 4.73
 3
 1
 2
2
 4
 2
 Salt Lake 2.81
 4.67
 1.93
 9
 1
 8
3
 5
 6
 Colorado 3.75
 4.73
 7.73
 10
 2
 8
4
 3
 8
 Toronto 4.50
 4.13
 8.47
 7
 1
 6
5
 2
 1
 Dallas 6.44
 3.53
 1.80
 12
 3
 9
6
 6
 3
 Montreal 6.88
 7.00
 3.33
 11
 1
 10
7
 7
 9
 Philadelphia 7.81
 7.13
 9.00
 11
 4
 7
8
 8
 10
 San Jose 7.94
 8.00
 9.80
 11
 5
 6
9
 9
 5
 Kansas City 9.13
 8.67
 5.53
 14
 3
 11
10
 11
 11
 Portland 10.00
 12.60
 12.40
 18
 2
 16
11
 10
 7
 Orlando 11.88
 10.67
 8.27
 15
 7
 8
12
 15
 13
 Seattle 13.56
 16.07
 13.47
 16
 8
 8
13
 14
 19
 D. C. 14.69
 14.40
 18.07
 18
 8
 10
14
 18
 20
 New York RB 14.88
 18.60
 20.00
 18
 10
 8
15
 13
 15
 Columbus 15.88
 14.00
 16.67
 19
 4
 15
16
 12
 14
 Vancouver 16.25
 13.40
 16.00
 20
 10
 10
17
 19
 16
 New York FC 17.69
 19.93
 17.40
 20
 5
 15
18
 16
 12
 New England 18.06
 17.20
 13.00
 19
 14
 5
19
 17
 17
 Chicago 19.06
 17.53
 17.47
 20
 12
 8
20
 20
 18
 Houston 20.00
 20.00
 17.60
 20
 16
 4
  • Largest Rise: New York RB +4
  • Largest Fall: Vancouver -4
  • Largest Range: Portland (16)
  • Smallest Range: Los Angeles (2)

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 		# Exact
 		1 off
 		2 off
 3+ off Furthest off
 		most bias vs
 		most bias for
Who Scored
 3
 3
 2
 12
 NYFC
 NYRB -4.24
 NYFC +7.18
Squawka
 1
 2
 3
 14
 NYFC
 TFC -6.03
 CLB +8.33
Jeff Sagarin
 5
 4
 8
 3
 VAN
 POR -2.46
 COL +4.47
Sports Club Stats
 2
 5
 4
 9
 POR
 POR -7.24
 CHI +5.97
Sports Illustrated 6
 4
 2
 8
 MTL
 COL -2.75 SEA +4.42
ESPN
 6
 9
 2
 3
 POR
 RSL -3.69
 NYRB +5.63
Soccer America 5
 8
 4
 3
 CHI
 NYRB -2.13 CHI +4.58
The Mane Land 5
 7
 6
 2
 VAN
 PHI -3.65 NYRB +5.13
Major League Soccer 3
 7
 7
 3
 3@ +/-3
 COL -2.87 NYRB +4.03
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes 5
 4
 7
 4
 FCD
 RSL -3.39 CLB +6.40
NYCFC Blog
 NA



TFC -3.36
 VAN +4.37
MLS Fantasy Boss
 NA



PHI -4.84
 SEA +8.46
Soccer By Ives 5
 9
 2
 4
 4@ +/-3
 TFC -2.63 SEA +3.55
Reddit r/MLS 8
 8
 3
 1
 PHI
 PHI -0.85
 VAN +1.70
Bleacher Report 7
 7
 4
 2
 VAN
 NYFC -1.82
 VAN +3.70
Seattle Times 7
 6
 7
 0
 7@ +/-2
 COL -0.75
 VAN +3.26
Power Rankings & More 5
 6
 7
 2
 CLB/FCD
 POR -2.45 COL +3.66
Hot Footy 8
 6
 4
 2
 SKC
 PHI -2.05
 COL +1.78
The Score 5
 9
 0
 6
 COL
 COL -3.30 NYRB +4.31
MLSfix NA



RSL -3.59 NYFC +7.36
Sportify
 3
 10
 3
 4
 POR
 SKC -6.00
 COL +6.53
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Reddit r/MLS:  with 8 exact matches, and 8 off by 1.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off, and 1 off as tiebreaker): Squawka with 14 off by 3+.
  • Active Site with Worst Bias VS:  Sports Club Stats with POR 7.24 from avg.
  • Active Site with Worst Bias FOR: Squawka with CLB 8.33 places from avg.
  • Active Site with Least Bias VS: Seattle Times with COL 0.75 places from avg.
  • Active Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit/r/MLS with VAN 1.70 places from avg.

Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.  The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team
Week
9
Week
8
Week
7
2015
Avg
5 Yr
Avg
 Weighted
Pts
 		Wk
8
 Wk
7
LA Galaxy 4.26
 4.61
 5.09
 4.51
 5.51
 16.91
 17.26
 17.74
Sporting Kansas City 4.50
 3.90
 3.21
 6.35
 4.81
 17.45
 16.85
 16.16
FC Dallas 3.81
 3.49
 3.49
 4.64
 7.25
 20.26
 19.94
 19.94
Real Salt Lake 7.21
 7.75
 8.17
 12.43
 6.41
 24.70
 25.24
 25.66
Seattle Sounders 15.75
 16.06
 16.12
 6.07
 7.83
 29.32
 29.63
 26.69
Vancouver Whitecaps 13.70
 13.38
 13.38
 5.09
 9.21
 31.67
 31.35
 31.35
New York Red Bulls 15.43
 15.52
 15.10
 4.68
 8.45
 31.83
 31.92
 31.50
Portland Timbers 8.43
 8.29
 7.73
 9.45
 10.25
 32.55
 32.41
 31.85
Toronto FC 6.97
 7.29
 7.72
 9.75
 12.07
 35.35
 35.67
 36.10
Orlando City * 10.44
 10.25
 10.18
 14.21
 10.33
 36.73
 36.54
 36.47
San Jose Earthquakes 8.76
 8.86
 9.00
 11.14
 10.02
 37.03
 37.13
 37.27
Montreal Impact 4.40
 4.12
 3.69
 15.06
 11.23
 37.19
 36.91
 36.48
D.C. United 17.75
 18.11
 18.65
 5.91
 11.17
 39.17
 39.53
 40.07
Columbus Crew SC 15.00
 14.92
 15.09
 8.75
 11.57
 39.41
 39.33
 39.50
New England Revolution 14.73
 14.33
 13.93
 9.50
 12.24
 40.48
 40.08
 39.68
Houston Dynamo 14.64
 13.89
 12.96
 13.81
 11.14
 42.19
 41.44
 40.51
New York City FC * 14.96
 14.61
 13.85
 15.47
 11.49
 42.38
 42.03
 41.27
Colorado Rapids 12.03
 13.04
 14.19
 17.38
 12.74
 44.48
 45.49
 46.64
Philadelphia Union 10.45
 10.77
 11.27
 18.07
 13.20
 44.62
 44.94
 45.44
Chicago Fire 18.47
 18.39
 18.49
 17.71
 14.80
 55.22
 55.14
 55.24

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.

Team
 		Best
Avg
 Worst
Avg
 Best
Pos		 Worst
Pos
Chicago Fire
 17.06
 19.75
 17
 20
Colorado Rapids
 3.75
 19.50
 3
 20
Columbus Crew SC
 8.06
 20.00
 7
 20
D.C. United
 14.56
 20.00
 13
 20
FC Dallas
 1.73
 8.81
 1
 8
Houston Dynamo
 8.19
 20.00
 7
 20
LA Galaxy
 1.44
 7.69
 1
 6
Montreal Impact
 1.19
 6.88
 1
 6
New England Revolution
 11.06
 18.06
 9
 18
New York City FC
 10.25
 19.94
 9
 19
New York Red Bulls
 9.72
 20.00
 8
 20
Orlando City
 4.80
 15.38
 3
 16
Philadelphia Union
 6.94
 19.78
 6
 18
Portland Timbers
 1.94
 12.13
 2
 11
Real Salt Lake
 2.06
 14.67
 2
 15
San Jose Earthquakes
 5.31
 11.06
 5
 12
Seattle Sounders
 12.72
 19.25
 9
 18
Sporting Kansas City
 1.31
 9.13
 1
 9
Toronto FC
 4.06
 10.94
 3
 9
Vancouver Whitecaps
 10.36
 16.25
 7
 16
  • Largest Range (position): 17 (Colorado)
  • Smallest Range (position): 3 (Chicago)
  • 4 teams have been ranked first
  • 6 teams have been ranked last

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