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Week 13 Power Ranking Averages

One more site dropped leaving 14 of 19 sites publishing this week. Colorado retains the lead.

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports



14 of 19 sites published for Week 13.  One more site dropped - NYCFC Blog has not published since week 7.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Squawka (squawka.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking) * No ranking Wks 12-13
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings) * No ranking Wk 13
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls) - No ranking Wks 10-12
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz) * No ranking Wk 13
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis) * No ranking Wk 13

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!


Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk13 Wk12 Wk11 Team
Wk13
Avg
Wk12
Avg
Wk11
Avg
Worst
Best
Range
1
1
2
Colorado 1.50
1.43
1.67
10
1
9
2
2
1
Los Angeles 3.08
2.57
1.60
7
1
6
3
3
3
Dallas 3.42
3.21
5.07
9
2
7
4
5
6
Philadelphia 4.50
5.93
6.80
8
2
6
5
9
18
New York RB 6.92
10.07
18.13
9
3
6
6
4
7
Salt Lake 7.00
4.93
7.53
14
3
11
7
8
5
Montreal 7.58
9.57
6.27
12
3
9
8
6
8
San Jose 7.83
6.71
7.60
12
4
8
9
7
4
Toronto 10.33
7.43
5.27
16
7
9
10
10
9
Vancouver 11.25
11.07
9.13
20
5
15
11
12
15
Orlando 12.92
12.93
15.87
19
9
10
12
11
13
Portland 13.42
11.71
14.67
17
5
12
13
16
14
D. C. U. 14.33
17.14
15.47
18
7
11
14
17
17
Columbus 14.92
17.43
17.87
18
2
16
15
15
10
New York FC 15.33
14.79
10.40
19
10
9
16
13
11
Kansas City 17.00
14.36
12.27
20
3
17
16
18
16
New England 17.00
18.86
17.40
19
13
6
18
14
12
Seattle 18.33
14.50
12.73
20
5
15
19
19
19
Houston 19.92
20.00
18.27
20
15
5
20
19
20
Chicago 20.00
20.00
20.00
20
14
6
  • Largest Rise: New York RB +4
  • Largest Fall: Seattle -4
  • Largest Range: Kansas City (17)
  • Smallest Range: Houston (5)


Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
# Exact
1 off
2 off
3+ off Furthest off
most bias vs
most bias for
Who Scored
6
2
3
9
VAN
VAN -5.07
NYFC +6.79
Squawka
1
4
1
14
SEA/SKC
VAN -5.07
CLB +9.64
Jeff Sagarin
1
10
4
5
4 @+/-4
POR -2.44
HOU +3.43
Sports Club Stats
7
9
3
1
POR
POR -6.51
CHI +5.32
Sports Illustrated 5
4
6
5
4 @+/-4 MTL -1.84 NYRB +4.35
ESPN
6
3
7
4
POR
RSL -2.71
POR +4.42
Soccer America 8
5
4
3
VAN
NYRB -1.73 CHI +3.87
The Mane Land 3
7
7
3
SJE
PHI -2.92 VAN +4.50
Major League Soccer 8
7
3
2
LAG
COL -2.09 NYRB +3.71
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes NA




FCD -2.83 CLB +5.27
Reddit r/MLS 10
6
3
1
NYRB
PHI -0.49 VAN +1.79
MLS Fantasy Boss
4
4
6
6
POR
PHI -4.49
POR +7.44
Soccer By Ives NA




TFC -1.85 SEA +3.42
The Score 4
6
6
4
SEA
COL -2.40 NYRB +3.19
Bleacher Report NA




NYFC -2.22
VAN +2.93
Seattle Times NA




COL -1.17
VAN +3.18
Power Rankings & More 3
10
2
5
TFC
POR -1.79 NER +3.09
Hot Footy 7
7
0
6
4 @+/-4 PHI -1.68
SJE +1.77
Sportify
NA




SKC -5.75
COL +5.51
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Reddit r/mls:  with 10 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off, and 1 off as tiebreaker): Squawka with 14 off by 3+.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Sports Club Stats with POR 6.51 from avg (improving).
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: Squawka with CLB 9.64 places from avg (getting worse).
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with PHI 0.49 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Hot Footy with SJE 1.77 places from avg.

Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.  The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team
Week
13
Week
12
Week
11
5 Yr
Avg
Weighted
Pts
Week
12
Wk
11
LA Galaxy 3.60
3.65
3.75
5.38
83.75
83.70
83.60
Sporting Kansas City 7.45
6.66
5.96
5.40
79.60
80.39
81.09
FC Dallas 4.17
4.24
4.33
7.32
79.38
79.31
79.20
Real Salt Lake 6.86
6.85
7.02
6.34
75.65
75.66
75.49
Seattle Sounders 15.11
14.84
14.87
7.70
71.32
71.59
71.56
Vancouver Whitecaps 12.93
13.07
13.26
9.06
69.10
68.96
68.77
New York Red Bulls 14.50
15.13
15.59
8.27
69.10
68.47
68.01
Portland Timbers 9.71
9.40
9.19
10.50
66.17
66.48
66.69
Toronto FC 6.84
6.55
6.47
12.05
64.78
65.07
65.15
San Jose Earthquakes 8.44
8.49
8.65
9.95
63.29
63.24
63.08
Orlando City * 11.44
11.32
11.17
10.53
62.27
62.39
62.54
Montreal Impact 5.31
5.13
4.72
11.41
61.90
62.08
62.49
D.C. United 17.26
17.51
17.54
11.07
61.32
61.07
61.04
Columbus Crew SC 15.56
15.62
15.45
11.68
60.04
59.98
60.15
Colorado Rapids 8.91
9.53
10.26
12.11
58.64
58.02
57.29
New England Revolution 15.76
15.66
15.36
12.44
58.49
58.59
58.89
New York City FC * 14.56
14.50
14.47
11.41
58.02
58.08
58.11
Philadelphia Union 9.15
9.54
9.87
12.94
56.68
56.29
55.96
Houston Dynamo 16.05
15.73
15.33
11.42
56.40
56.72
57.12
Chicago Fire 19.10
18.95
18.82
14.92
44.15
44.30
44.43

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)


Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.

Team
Best
Avg
Worst
Avg
Best
Pos
Worst
Pos
Chicago Fire
17.06
20.00
17
20
Colorado Rapids
1.43
19.50
1
20
Columbus Crew SC
8.06
20.00
7
20
D.C. United
14.33
20.00
13
20
FC Dallas
1.73
8.81
1
8
Houston Dynamo
8.19
20.00
7
20
LA Galaxy
1.25
7.69
1
6
Montreal Impact
1.19
9.57
1
8
New England Revolution
11.06
19.19
9
19
New York City FC
10.25
19.94
9
19
New York Red Bulls
6.92
20.00
5
20
Orlando City
4.80
15.37
3
16
Philadelphia Union
4.50
19.78
4
18
Portland Timbers
1.94
14.67
2
13
Real Salt Lake
2.06
14.67
2
15
San Jose Earthquakes
5.31
11.06
5
12
Seattle Sounders
9.44
19.25
9
18
Sporting Kansas City
1.31
17.00
1
16
Toronto FC
3.06
10.94
3
9
Vancouver Whitecaps
9.13
16.29
7
16
  • Largest Range (position): 19 (Colorado)
  • Smallest Range (position): 3 (Chicago)
  • 5 teams have been ranked first
  • 6 teams have been ranked last