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Power Ranking Averages - Week 15

One more site dropped, making 11 of 18 sites publishing. Much shuffling among the top 5.

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports


MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 15

11 of 18 sites published for Week 15 once again likely due to the Copa America break.  Due to popular demand, Squakwa has been removed from the rankings, and for that matter I'm also considering dropping one or more of the 'analytic' sites because they are often proving to be far from the overall averages; that tends to slew the totals in favor of some teams and against others.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com) * No ranking Wk 14-15
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings) * No ranking Wk 13-15
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking) * No ranking Wk 15
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/mls) - No ranking Wks 10-15
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer) * No ranking Wk 14-15
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis) * No ranking Wk 13-15

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!


Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk15 Wk14 Wk13 Team
Wk15
Avg
Wk14
Avg
Wk13
Avg
Worst
Best
Range
1
1
1
Colorado 1
1.14
1.50
5
1
4
2
6
5
New York RB 3.40
7.00
6.92
9
2
7
3
4
3
Dallas 4.20
4.14
3.42
9
2
7
4
5
6
Salt Lake 4.40
5.00
7.00
8
2
6
5
2
4
Philadelphia 4.60
2.86
4.50
8
3
5
6
3
2
Los Angeles 5.30
3.14
3.08
10
1
9
7
7
7
Montreal 7.40
7.29
7.58
11
3
8
8
9
9
Toronto 7.70
9.71
10.33
13
4
9
9
8
8
San Jose 8.10
9.00
7.83
11
6
5
10
10
12
Portland 10.70
10.71
13.42
17
4
13
11
11
11
Orlando 12.40
11.43
12.92
16
10
6
12
11
10
Vancouver 13.00
11.43
11.25
20
8
12
13
14
15
New York FC 13.40
14.43
15.33
19
8
11
14
18
16
New England 13.50
16.00
17.00
19
10
9
15
16
16
Kansas City 13.70
15.29
17.00
17
11
8
16
17
13
D. C. U. 15.50
15.57
14.33
18
7
11
17
15
14
Columbus 16.30
14.57
14.92
18
9
9
18
13
18
Seattle 17.20
13.86
18.33
20
9
11
19
19
19
Houston 18.50
17.71
19.92
19
14
5
20
20
20
Chicago 19.50
19.57
20.00
20
16
4
  • Largest Rise: New York RB +4
  • Largest Fall: Seattle -5
  • Largest Range: Portland (13)
  • Smallest Range: Colorado (4)


Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
# Exact
1 off
2 off
3+ off Furthest off
most bias vs
most bias for
Who Scored
3
3
4
10
DCU/VAN
VAN -6.25
NYFC +6.32
Jeff Sagarin
3
3
6
8
NYRB
POR -2.93
HOU +3.25
Sports Club Stats
NA




POR -6.82
CHI +4.97
Sports Illustrated NA



COL -3.10 SEA +4.10
ESPN
5
3
4
8
FCD
RSL -3.22
POR +4.07
Soccer America 5
8
5
2
NYRB/VAN
NYRB -2.46 CHI +2.88
Major League Soccer 5
7
5
3
3@ +/-3
LAG -2.23 NYRB +2.67
The Mane Land 8
4
5
3
MTL
PHI -2.94 VAN +3.58
Soccer By Ives NA




COL -3.03 SEA +3.18
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes NA



FCD -2.99 CLB +4.97
Reddit r/MLS 6
10
2
2
NER/ORL
COL -0.60 VAN +1.15
MLS Fantasy Boss
4
4
3
9
SEA
PHI -4.50
POR +6.86
The Score 6
5
4
5
5@ +/-3
COL -2.98 NER +2.12
Bleacher Report NA




COL -2.85
SKC +2.97
Seattle Times 6
8
3
3
NER
COL -1.20
VAN +2.09
Power Rankings & More 4
5
5
6
NYFC
TFC -2.01 NER +2.83
Hot Footy NA




PHI -2.64
SKC +2.78
Sportify
NA




SKC -4.67
SEA +4.47
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) The Mane Land:  with 8 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off, and 1 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 10 off by 3+.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Sports Club Stats with POR 6.82 from avg.
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 6.86 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with COL 0.60 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit r/MLS with VAN 1.15 places from avg.

Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.  The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team
Week
15
Week
14
Week
13
5 Yr
Avg*
Weighted
Pts*
Week
14
Wk
13
LA Galaxy 3.65
3.55
3.55
5.39
83.70
83.80
83.80
FC Dallas 3.89
3.90
3.91
7.27
79.66
79.65
79.64
Sporting Kansas City 8.53
8.16
7.58
9.89
78.52
78.89
79.47
Real Salt Lake 6.25
6.33
6.45
6.22
76.26
76.18
79.06
Seattle Sounders 14.87
14.72
14.76
7.65
71.56
71.71
71.67
New York Red Bulls 12.54
13.24
13.74
7.87
71.06
70.36
69.86
Vancouver Whitecaps 12.02
11.98
12.13
8.87
70.01
70.05
69.90
Portland Timbers 9.40
9.34
9.25
10.44
66.48
66.54
66.63
Toronto FC 6.78
6.69
6.42
12.04
64.84
64.93
65.20
San Jose Earthquakes 8.11
8.12
8.09
9.89
63.62
63.61
63.64
Orlando City * 11.12
11.03
11.02
10.47
62.59
62.68
62.69
D.C. United 16.52
16.59
16.70
10.92
62.06
61.99
61.88
Montreal Impact 5.52
5.38
5.22
11.46
61.69
61.83
61.99
Columbus Crew SC 15.34
15.28
15.25
11.64
60.26
60.32
60.35
Colorado Rapids 7.59
8.05
8.60
11.85
59.96
59.50
58.95
New England Revolution 15.26
15.41
15.35
12.34
58.99
58.84
58.90
New York City FC * 14.59
14.61
14.58
11.41
57.99
57.97
58.00
Philadelphia Union 8.19
8.39
8.81
12.75
57.64
57.44
57.02
Houston Dynamo 16.05
15.86
15.69
11.42
56.40
56.59
56.76
Chicago Fire 18.75
18.69
18.59
14.85
44.50
44.56
44.66

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)


Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.

Team
Best
Avg
Worst
Avg
Best
Pos
Worst
Pos
Chicago Fire
16.00
20.00
17
20
Colorado Rapids
1.00
18.71
1
20
Columbus Crew SC
7.47
19.27
7
20
D.C. United
13.00
19.86
13
20
FC Dallas
1.60
8.40
1
8
Houston Dynamo
7.67
20.00
7
20
LA Galaxy
1.27
7.40
1
6
Montreal Impact
1.13
9.85
1
8
New England Revolution
10.35
19.47
9
19
New York City FC
9.87
20.00
9
19
New York Red Bulls
3.11
19.93
2
20
Orlando City
4.07
15.86
3
16
Philadelphia Union
3.63
18.71
2
18
Portland Timbers
1.82
14.57
2
13
Real Salt Lake
1.80
13.82
2
15
San Jose Earthquakes
5.20
10.65
5
12
Seattle Sounders
9.60
18.33
9
18
Sporting Kansas City
1.20
16.18
1
16
Toronto FC
2.93
10.63
3
9
Vancouver Whitecaps
8.29
16.25
7
16
  • Largest Range (position): 19 (Colorado)
  • Smallest Range (position): 3 (Chicago)
  • 5 teams have been ranked first
  • 6 teams have been ranked last