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Power Ranking Averages - Week 16

One more site dropped making 13 of 17 sites publishing for week 16. Colorado fends off Dallas again

By Kreg Asay
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports



13 of 17 sites published for Week 16.  Bleacher Report has now been dropped for missing more than 6 consecutive weeks.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com) * No ranking Wk 14-16
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings) * No ranking Wk 13-16
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking) * No ranking Wk 15-16
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) *No Ranking Wk 16
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk16 Wk15 Wk14 Team
Wk16
Avg
Wk15
Avg
Wk14
Avg
Worst
 		Best
 		Range
1
 1
 1
 Colorado 1.00
 1.00
 1.14
 1
 1
 0
2
 3
 4
 Dallas 2.45
 4.20
 4.14
 5
 2
 3
3
 4
 5
 Salt Lake 4.00
 4.40
 5.00
 13
 2
 11
4
 2
 6
 New York RB 5.09
 3.40
 7.00
 9
 3
 6
5
 6
 3
 Los Angeles 5.73
 5.30
 3.14
 13
 2
 11
6
 5
 2
 Philadelphia 6.00
 4.60
 2.86
 10
 3
 7
7
 7
 7
 Montreal 8.18
 7.40
 7.29
 11
 2
 9
8
 9
 8
 San Jose 8.36
 8.10
 9.00
 11
 6
 5
9
 10
 10
 Portland 9.18
 10.70
 10.71
 17
 3
 14
10
 12
 11
 Vancouver 10.18
 13.00
 11.43
 19
 6
 13
11
 13
 14
 New York FC 10.27
 13.40
 14.43
 14
 3
 11
12
 8
 9
 Toronto 10.55
 7.70
 9.71
 15
 5
 10
13
 11
 11
 Orlando 11.27
 12.40
 11.43
 13
 9
 4
14
 15
 16
 Kansas City 13.82
 13.70
 15.29
 15
 11
 4
15
 16
 17
 D. C. U. 14.45
 15.50
 15.57
 16
 5
 11
16
 14
 18
 New England 16.36
 13.50
 16.00
 20
 15
 5
17
 17
 15
 Columbus 16.64
 16.30
 14.57
 18
 12
 6
18
 18
 13
 Seattle 18.36
 17.20
 13.86
 20
 17
 3
19
 19
 19
 Houston 18.45
 18.50
 17.71
 20
 16
 4
20
 20
 20
 Chicago 19.91
 19.50
 19.57
 20
 15
 5
  • Largest Rise: Vancouver +2
  • Largest Fall: Toronto -4
  • Largest Range: Portland (14)
  • Smallest Range: Colorado (0)

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 		# Exact
 		1 off
 		2 off
 3+ off Furthest off
 		most bias vs
 		most bias for
Who Scored
 4
 2
 2
 12
 DCU/RSL
 VAN -6.59
 NYFC +5.72
Jeff Sagarin
 5
 2
 3
 10
 TFC
 POR -3.05
 HOU +2.80
Sports Club Stats
 10
 2
 3
 5
 SJE
 POR -6.74
 CHI +3.49
Sports Illustrated NA



COL -3.58 SEA +4.11
ESPN
 8
 0
 5
 7
 LAG
 RSL -3.35
 POR +4.07
Soccer America 8
 7
 2
 3
 LAG/VAN
 NYRB -2.54 CHI +2.28
Major League Soccer 11
 5
 2
 2
 TFC
 LAG -2.19 NYRB +2.31
The Mane Land 9
 5
 1
 5
 MTL/POR
 PHI -2.97 VAN +3.37
Soccer By Ives NA



COL -3.51 SEA +3.19
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes NA



FCD -3.16 CLB +4.78
Reddit r/MLS 10
 5
 4
 1
 SJE
 DCU -0.87 POR +1.08
MLS Fantasy Boss
 NA



PHI -4.83
 POR +6.72
The Score 8
 8
 2
 2
 NYRB
 COL -2.82 VAN +1.85
Power Rankings & More 9
 2
 1
 8
 NYFC
 TFC -2.30
 NYFC +2.70
Seattle Times 10
 6
 4
 0
 4 @ +/-2
 COL -1.16
 VAN +1.92
Hot Footy 7
 4
 6
 3
 POR
 PHI -2.45
 SKC +2.28
Sportify
 7
 7
 2
 4
 POR
 SKC -4.91
 COL +4.11
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Major League Soccer:  with 11 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 3+ with 2 off, and 1 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 12 off by 3+.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Sports Club Stats with POR 6.74 from avg.
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 6.72 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with DCU 0.87 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit r/MLS with POR 1.08 places from avg.

Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.  The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team
Week
16
Week
15
Week
14
 5 Yr
Avg*
 Weighted
Pts*
Week
15
Week
14
LA Galaxy 3.75
 3.65
 3.55
 5.41
 83.60
 83.7
 83.80
FC Dallas 3.72
 3.89
 3.90
 7.23
 79.82
 79.66
 79.65
Sporting Kansas City 8.59
 8.55
 8.16
 5.63
 78.37
 78.52
 78.89
Real Salt Lake 5.96
 6.23
 6.33
 6.16
 76.52
 76.26
 76.18
New York Red Bulls 11.84
 12.56
 13.24
 7.73
 71.74
 71.06
 70.36
Seattle Sounders 14.88
 14.88
 14.72
 7.65
 71.50
 71.56
 71.71
Vancouver Whitecaps 11.72
 12.05
 11.98
 8.81
 70.24
 70.01
 70.05
Portland Timbers 9.26
 9.44
 9.34
 10.41
 66.59
 66.48
 66.54
Toronto FC 6.90
 6.79
 6.69
 12.06
 64.65
 64.84
 64.93
San Jose Earthquakes 7.95
 8.09
 8.12
 9.86
 63.74
 63.62
 63.61
Orlando City * 10.83
 11.10
 11.03
 10.41
 62.82
 62.59
 62.68
D.C. United 16.01
 16.50
 16.59
 10.82
 62.48
 62.06
 61.99
Montreal Impact 5.56
 5.51
 5.38
 11.46
 61.58
 61.69
 61.83
Colorado Rapids 7.11
 7.59
 8.05
 11.75
 60.41
 59.96
 59.50
Columbus Crew SC 15.15
 15.33
 15.28
 11.60
 60.37
 60.26
 60.32
New England Revolution 14.94
 15.24
 15.41
 12.28
 59.23
 58.99
 58.84
New York City FC * 13.97
 14.58
 14.61
 11.29
 58.51
 57.99
 57.97
Philadelphia Union 7.86
 8.18
 8.39
 12.68
 57.93
 57.64
 57.44
Houston Dynamo 15.80
 16.05
 15.86
 11.37
 56.54
 56.40
 56.59
Chicago Fire 18.40
 18.75
 18.69
 14.78
 44.74
 44.50
 44.56

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

Team High / Low
Best and worst placement for each team in weekly, avg rank total.

Team
 		Best
Avg
 Worst
Avg
 Best
Pos		 Worst
Pos
Chicago Fire
 16.00
 19.91
 17
 20
Colorado Rapids
 1.00
 18.71
 1
 20
Columbus Crew SC
 7.47
 19.27
 7
 20
D.C. United
 13.00
 19.86
 13
 20
FC Dallas
 1.60
 7.93
 1
 8
Houston Dynamo
 7.67
 19.56
 7
 20
LA Galaxy
 1.20
 7.40
 1
 6
Montreal Impact
 1.13
 9.23
 1
 8
New England Revolution
 10.35
 18.33
 9
 19
New York City FC
 9.87
 19.07
 9
 19
New York Red Bulls
 3.40
 19.93
 2
 20
Orlando City
 4.07
 14.71
 3
 16
Philadelphia Union
 3.63
 18.71
 2
 18
Portland Timbers
 1.82
 13.64
 2
 13
Real Salt Lake
 1.80
 13.82
 2
 15
San Jose Earthquakes
 5.20
 10.65
 5
 12
Seattle Sounders
 9.07
 18.36
 9
 18
Sporting Kansas City
 1.20
 16.18
 1
 16
Toronto FC
 2.80
 10.63
 3
 12
Vancouver Whitecaps
 8.00
 15.25
 7
 16
  • Largest Range (position): 19 (Colorado)
  • Smallest Range (position): 3 (Chicago)
  • 5 teams have been ranked first
  • 6 teams have been ranked last

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