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Power Ranking Averages - Week 18

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17 if 18 sites published this week, in which Dallas finally overtake the Rapids.

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports


MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 18

17 of 18 sites published for Week 18.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com) * No ranking Wk 14-18
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)
  • Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!


Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk18 Wk17 Wk16 Team
Wk18
Avg
Wk17
Avg
Wk16
Avg
Worst
Best
Range
1
2
2
Dallas 1.33
1.93
2.85
3
1
2
2
1
1
Colorado 2.20
1.50
1.08
4
1
3
3
3
5
Los Angeles 3.00
3.93
5.46
5
1
4
4
4
3
Salt Lake 6.13
4.71
4.77
12
4
8
5
7
6
Philadelphia 6.60
8.43
6.54
10
3
7
6
6
7
Montreal 6.80
6.79
8.85
11
3
8
7
5
11
New York FC 7.20
6.21
11.54
15
4
11
8
10
14
Kansas City 8.60
11.14
14.54
11
5
6
9
8
9
Portland 8.67
8.86
9.54
14
3
11
10
9
4
New York RB 10.00
9.21
5.85
11
5
6
11
12
12
Toronto 11.07
12.00
11.69
13
5
8
12
13
10
Vancouver 13.00
13.50
10.85
20
9
11
13
11
8
San Jose 13.73
11.71
8.31
15
10
5
14
14
15
D. C. U. 15.87
14.07
15.77
17
9
8
15
15
13
Orlando 16.20
15.57
12.31
17
11
6
16
17
16
New England 16.60
18.21
17.69
19
13
6
17
16
19
Houston 17.00
17.64
20.00
19
11
8
18
18
18
Seattle 19.60
19.29
19.62
20
15
5
19
19
17
Columbus 19.67
19.43
17.77
20
16
4
20
20
20
Chicago 20.00
20.00 20.00 20
15
5
  • Largest Rise: Philadelphia, Kansas City +2
  • Largest Fall: San Jose -2
  • Largest Range: New York City FC, Portland, Vancouver (11)
  • Smallest Range: Dallas (2)


Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
# Exact
1 off
2 off
3 off 4
off
5+
off
Furthest off
most bias vs
most bias for
Who Scored
2
3
5
2
2
6
VAN
VAN -6.46
CHI +5.77
Jeff Sagarin
8
2
6
1
0
3
NYCFC
POR -2.72
HOU +3.44
Sports Club Stats
2
9
6
1
2
0
ORL/TFC
POR -6.20
CHI +3.59
Sports Illustrated NA






COL -4.14 SEA +4.94
ESPN
4
7
4
1
2
2
RSL
RSL -3.28
POR +4.17
Soccer America 4
10
3
2
0
1
POR
NYRB -2.09 CHI +2.61
Major League Soccer 7
8
3
1
0
1
MTL
LAG -1.90 TFC +2.51
The Mane Land 6
7
4
1
2
0
PHI/POR
PHI -2.81 VAN +3.51
Soccer By Ives 10
7
2
1
0
0
NER
COL -2.92 SEA +3.31
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes 3
6
6
3
1
1
POR
FCD -2.57 CLB +4.43
Reddit r/MLS 12
6
2
0
0
0
DCU/NER
COL -0.56 NYFC +1.24
MLS Fantasy Boss
3
6
6
3
0
2
POR
PHI -4.26
POR +6.72
The Score 8
6
3
3
0
0
3@+/-3
COL -2.39 VAN +2.16
Power Rankings & More 5
7
7
1
0
0
NER
TFC -2.05
NYFC +3.03
Seattle Times 11
4
1
4
0
0
4@ +/-3
FCD -1.00
VAN +2.39
Hot Footy 8
7
3
1
1
0
POR
PHI -1.80
SKC +2.18
Sportify
7
4
4
1
1
3
3@+/-5
SKC -3.34
COL +3.80
Black & Red United
11
5
1
3
0
0
3@ +/-3
TFC -4.78
COL +5.83
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Reddit r/MLS:  with 12 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 6 off by 5+.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Who Scored with VAN 6.46 from avg.
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 6.72 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with COL 0.56 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit r/MLS with NYCFC 1.24 places from avg.

Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.  The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team
Week
18
Week
17
Week
16
5 Yr
Avg*
Weighted
Pts*
Week
17
Week
16
LA Galaxy 3.78
3.83
3.82
5.41
83.57
83.52
83.53
FC Dallas 3.53
3.67
3.77
7.20
80.02
79.88
79.78
Sporting Kansas City 8.91
8.94
8.80
5.69
78.14
78.11
78.25
Real Salt Lake 6.11
6.10
6.19
6.19
76.40
76.41
76.32
New York Red Bulls 11.74
11.86
12.03
7.71
71.86
71.74
71.57
Seattle Sounders 15.71
15.48
15.25
7.82
70.72
70.95
71.18
Vancouver Whitecaps 12.04
11.98
11.89
8.88
69.99
70.05
70.14
Portland Timbers 9.34
9.40
9.43
10.43
66.54
66.48
66.45
Toronto FC 7.72
7.51
7.23
12.22
63.90
64.11
64.39
San Jose Earthquakes 8.45
8.15
7.93
9.96
63.28
63.58
63.80
D.C. United 16.22
16.25
16.39
10.86
62.36
62.33
62.19
Orlando City * 11.62
11.36
11.10
10.57
62.09
62.35
62.61
Montreal Impact 5.83
5.77
5.71
11.52
61.38
61.44
61.50
Colorado Rapids 6.55
6.80
7.13
11.64
61.00
60.75
60.42
Columbus Crew SC 16.03
15.83
15.61
11.78
59.57
59.77
59.99
New York City FC * 13.50
13.87
14.35
11.19
59.08
58.71
58.23
New England Revolution 15.50
15.43
15.25
12.39
58.75
58.82
59.00
Philadelphia Union 7.93
7.99
7.96
12.70
57.9
57.84
57.87
Houston Dynamo 16.33
16.30
16.21
11.47
56.12
56.15
56.24
Chicago Fire 19.05
18.96
18.86
14.91
44.20
44.29
44.39

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)