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Week 20 Power Ranking Averages

Power Ranking Averages from 16 sites. Two teams make big jumps.

By Kreg Asay
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports



16 of 18 sites published for Week 20.  Sorry for missing the week 19 article, I was on vacation to attend the RSL vs SJE game and didn't have reliable internet where we were staying.  The numbers for last week are included below.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking) *No ranking Wk 19-20
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz) *No ranking Wk 20
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)
  • Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk20 Wk19 Wk18 Team
Wk20
Avg
Wk19
Avg
Wk18
Avg
Worst
 		Best
 		Range
1
 1
 2
 Colorado 1.86
 1.53
 2.20
 4
 1
 3
2
 2
 1
 Dallas 2.00
 2.00
 1.33
 3
 1
 2
3
 3
 3
 Los Angeles 2.57
 2.87
 3.00
 3
 1
 2
4
 8
 10
 New York RB 5.43
 8.60
 10.00
 9
 4
 5
5
 9
 6
 Montreal 5.93
 9.47
 6.80
 12
 4
 8
6
 4
 7
 New York FC 7.07
 4.53
 7.20
 13
 5
 8
7
 7
 4
 Salt Lake 9.21
 8.40
 6.13
 15
 4
 11
8
 5
 5
 Philadelphia 9.43
 6.20
 6.60
 13
 6
 7
9
 6
 9
 Portland 9.50
 6.80
 8.67
 13
 3
 10
10
 12
 8
 Kansas City 10.07
 11.87
 8.60
 13
 6
 7
11
 13
 11
 Toronto 10.21
 12.33
 11.07
 13
 4
 9
12
 10
 12
 Vancouver 12.07
 11.20
 13.00
 18
 8
 10
13
 11
 13
 San Jose 12.79
 11.67
 13.73
 19
 8
 11
14
 15
 16
 New England 15.00
 16.36
 16.60
 19
 12
 7
15
 16
 15
 Orlando 16.36
 16.60
 16.20
 17
 12
 5
16
 14
 14
 D. C. U. 17.29
 15.60
 15.87
 19
 11
 8
17
 17
 17
 Houston 18.36
 18.73
 17.00
 20
 13
 7
18
 19
 19
 Columbus 18.93
 19.80
 19.67
 19
 15
 4
19
 18
 18
 Seattle 19.99
 18.87
 19.60
 20
 14
 6
20
 20
 20
 Chicago 20.00
 20.00
 20.00
 20
 17
 3
  • Largest Rise: New York Red Bulls, Montreal +4
  • Largest Fall: Portland -3
  • Largest Range: Salt Lake, San Jose (11)
  • Smallest Range: Dallas, Los Angeles (2)

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 		# Exact
 		1 off
 		2 off
 3 off 4
off
 		5+
off
 		Furthest off
 		most bias vs
 		most bias for
Who Scored
 3
 7
 2
 2
 1
 5
 RSL
 VAN -6.50
 CHI +5.63
Jeff Sagarin
 5
 7
 2
 3
 0
 3
 NYFC/TFC
 NYFC -2.57
 HOU +3.55
Sports Club Stats
 6
 6
 3
 4
 1
 0
 TFC
 POR -5.70
 CHI +3.31
Sports Illustrated 4
 9
 4
 3
 0
 0
 3@ +/-3
 COL -3.34 SEA +4.10
ESPN
 9
 4
 1
 1
 4
 1
 NYFC
 RSL -3.16
 POR +3.98
Soccer America 4
 10
 2
 2
 1
 1
 RSL
 NYRB -1.77 CHI +2.68
Major League Soccer 5
 6
 6
 0
 2
 1
 TFC
 LAG -1.75 TFC +2.70
The Mane Land 3
 7
 6
 2
 1
 1
 RSL
 PHI -2.61 VAN +3.62
Soccer By Ives 5
 7
 3
 3
 2
 0
 POR/SKC
 COL -2.41 SEA +3.16
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes NA





FCD -2.72 CLB +4.77
Reddit r/MLS 13
 5
 2
 0
 0
 0
 COL/DCU
 COL -0.61 NYFC +1.16
MLS Fantasy Boss
 NA





PHI -4.09
 POR +6.58
The Score 10
 4
 5
 0
 1
 0
 NYRB
 COL -2.05 VAN +2.00
Power Rankings & More 11
 6
 3
 0
 0
 0
 3@ +/-3 TFC -2.08
 NYFC +2.84
Seattle Times NA





COL -1.16
 VAN +2.44
Hot Footy 6
 8
 3
 1
 1
 1
 NYRB
 POR -1.36
 SKC +2.23
Sportify
 3
 7
 7
 1
 0
 2
 RSL
 SKC -2.49
 COL +3.46
Black & Red United
 9
 4
 3
 4
 0
 0
 4@ +/-3 TFC -4.55
 COL +4.94
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Reddit r/MLS:  with 11 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 5 off by 5+.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Who Scored with VAN 6.50 from avg.
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 6.58 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with COL 0.61 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit r/MLS with NYCFC 1.16 places from avg.

FIFA-esque Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.  The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team
Week
20
Week
19
Week
18
 5 Yr
Avg*
 Weighted
Pts*
Week
19
Week
18
LA Galaxy 3.68
 3.73
 3.78
 5.39
 83.67
 83.61
 83.57
FC Dallas 3.38
 3.45
 3.53
 7.17
 80.17
 80.10
 80.02
Sporting Kansas City 9.11
 9.07
 8.91
 5.73
 77.94
 77.99
 78.14
Real Salt Lake 6.39
 6.23
 6.11
 6.24
 76.12
 76.27
 76.40
New York Red Bulls 11.28
 11.58
 11.74
 7.62
 72.32
 72.01
 71.86
Seattle Sounders 16.10
 15.87
 15.71
 7.90
 70.33
 70.54
 70.72
Vancouver Whitecaps 12.00
 11.99
 12.04
 8.87
 70.03
 70.03
 69.99
Portland Timbers 9.23
 9.20
 9.34
 10.41
 66.65
 66.66
 66.54
Toronto FC 8.08
 7.96
 7.72
 12.30
 63.54
 63.66
 63.90
San Jose Earthquakes 8.84
 8.62
 8.45
 10.03
 62.89
 63.09
 63.28
D.C. United 16.23
 16.18
 16.22
 10.86
 62.35
 62.40
 62.36
Orlando City * 12.11
 11.88
 11.62
 10.66
 61.60
 61.82
 62.09
Colorado Rapids 6.06
 6.28
 6.55
 11.54
 61.49
 61.27
 61.00
Montreal Impact 6.01
 6.02
 5.83
 11.55
 61.20
 61.20
 61.38
New York City FC * 12.73
 13.03
 13.50
 11.04
 59.85
 59.55
 59.08
Columbus Crew SC 16.37
 16.23
 16.03
 11.85
 59.23
 59.36
 59.57
New England Revolution 15.51
 15.54
 15.50
 12.39
 58.74
 58.71
 58.75
Philadelphia Union 7.91
 7.83
 7.93
 12.69
 57.92
 58.00
 57.90
Houston Dynamo 16.55
 16.46
 16.33
 11.52
 55.90
 55.99
 56.12
Chicago Fire 19.18
 19.11
 19.05
 14.94
 44.07
 44.14
 44.20

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

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