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Power Ranking Averages - Week 17

One new site added making 15 of 18 sites publishing. NYCFC make a huge leap.

By Kreg Asay
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports



15 of 18 sites published for Week 17.  Black & Red United has been added to the rankings, and their ranks from Wk 14 on are now included in the totals.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com) * No ranking Wk 14-17
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) * No ranking Wk 17
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis) * No ranking Wk 17
  • Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk17 Wk16 Wk15 Team
Wk17
Avg
Wk16
Avg
Wk15
Avg
Worst
 		Best
 		Range
1
 1
 1
 Colorado 1.46
 1.08
 1.09
 2
 1
 1
2
 2
 3
 Dallas 2.00
 2.85
 4.55
 3
 1
 2
3
 5
 6
 Los Angeles 4.08
 5.46
 5.36
 7
 1
 6
4
 3
 4
 Salt Lake 4.62
 4.77
 5.27
 10
 3
 7
5
 11
 13
 New York FC 6.15
 11.54
 14.91
 16
 3
 13
6
 7
 7
 Montreal 6.62
 8.85
 8.18
 10
 3
 7
7
 6
 5
 Philadelphia 8.15
 6.54
 5.18
 12
 5
 7
8
 9
 10
 Portland 9.23
 9.54
 11.36
 16
 4
 12
9
 4
 2
 New York RB 9.46
 5.85
 4.18
 11
 6
 5
10
 14
 15
 Kansas City 11.08
 14.54
 14.36
 15
 7
 8
11
 8
 9
 San Jose 12.00
 8.31
 7.64
 14
 7
 7
12
 12
 8
 Toronto 12.15
 11.69
 8.82
 16
 5
 11
13
 10
 12
 Vancouver 13.46
 10.85
 13.91
 20
 8
 12
14
 15
 16
 D. C. U. 14.00
 15.77
 17.09
 15
 5
 10
15
 13
 11
 Orlando 15.92
 12.31
 13.82
 18
 11
 7
16
 19
 19
 Houston 17.54
 20.00
 20.00
 19
 12
 7
17
 16
 14
 New England 18.23
 17.69
 14.64
 19
 15
 4
18
 18
 18
 Seattle 19.46
 19.62
 18.82
 20
 17
 3
19
 17
 17
 Columbus 19.62
 17.77
 18.18
 20
 12
 8
20
 20
 20
 Chicago 20.00 20.00 20.00 20
 15
 5
  • Largest Rise: New York City FC +6
  • Largest Fall: New York Red Bulls -5
  • Largest Range: New York City FC (13)
  • Smallest Range: Colorado (1)

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 		# Exact
 		1 off
 		2 off
 3 off 4
off
 		5+
off
 		Furthest off
 		most bias vs
 		most bias for
Who Scored
 6
 1
 3
 3
 1
 6
 DCU
 VAN -6.43
 NYFC +5.86
Jeff Sagarin
 5
 5
 5
 1
 2
 2
 NYFC
 POR -2.82
 HOU +3.35
Sports Club Stats
 5
 3
 7
 2
 1
 2
 POR
 POR -6.41
 CHI +3.79
Sports Illustrated NA





COL -3.89 SEA +4.72
ESPN
 2
 8
 3
 4
 1
 2
 PHI/RSL
 RSL -3.19
 POR +4.24
Soccer America 7
 9
 1
 1
 2
 0
 LAG/POR
 NYRB -2.18 CHI +2.61
Major League Soccer 6
 11
 1
 1
 1
 0
 MTL
 LAG -2.00 TFC +2.52
The Mane Land 4
 9
 5
 1
 1
 0
 PHI
 PHI -2.86 VAN +3.54
Soccer By Ives 7
 6
 7
 0
 0
 0
 7@ +/-2
 COL -3.20 SEA +3.42
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes 4
 7
 3
 2
 2
 2
 DCU
 FCD -2.77 CLB +4.84
Reddit r/MLS 8
 11
 1
 0
 0
 0
 SJE
 COL -0.59 POR +1.25
MLS Fantasy Boss
 NA





PHI -4.46
 POR +6.85
The Score 5
 9
 0
 4
 1
 1
 SKC
 COL -2.58 VAN +2.11
Power Rankings & More 5
 8
 1
 3
 2
 1
 CHI
 TFC -2.11
 NYFC +3.11
Seattle Times 5
 9
 2
 2
 1
 1
 VAN
 COL -1.08
 VAN +2.29
Hot Footy 6
 9
 2
 2
 0
 1
 POR
 PHI -2.03
 SKC +2.29
Sportify
 NA





SKC -4.57
 SEA +3.82
Black & Red United
 9
 8
 3
 0
 0
 0
 3@ +/-2
 TFC -4.88
 COL +5.80
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Black & Red United:  with 9 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 6 off by 5+.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Who Scored with POR 6.43 from avg.
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 6.85 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with COL 0.59 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit r/MLS with POR 1.25 places from avg.

Season Average Power Ranking
The 5 Year Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.  The table is ordered based on the Weighted Points.

Team
Week
17
Week
16
Week
15
 5 Yr
Avg*
 Weighted
Pts*
Week
16
Week
15
LA Galaxy 3.83
 3.82
 3.71
 5.42
 83.52
 83.53
 83.64
FC Dallas 3.67
 3.77
 3.84
 7.22
 79.88
 79.78
 79.71
Sporting Kansas City 8.93
 8.80
 8.42
 5.69
 78.12
 78.25
 78.63
Real Salt Lake 6.10
 6.19
 6.28
 6.19
 76.41
 76.32
 76.23
New York Red Bulls 11.88
 12.03
 12.44
 7.74
 71.72
 71.57
 71.16
Seattle Sounders 15.49
 15.25
 14.96
 7.77
 70.94
 71.18
 71.47
Vancouver Whitecaps 11.98
 11.89
 11.95
 8.87
 70.05
 70.14
 70.08
Portland Timbers 9.42
 9.43
 9.43
 10.44
 66.46
 66.45
 66.45
Toronto FC 7.52
 7.23
 6.93
 12.18
 64.10
 64.39
 64.69
San Jose Earthquakes 8.17
 7.93
 7.90
 9.90
 63.56
 63.80
 63.83
D.C. United 16.24
 16.39
 16.43
 10.87
 62.34
 62.19
 62.15
Orlando City * 11.38
 11.10
 11.02
 10.52
 62.33
 62.61
 62.69
Montreal Impact 5.76
 5.71
 5.50
 11.50
 61.45
 61.50
 61.71
Colorado Rapids 6.80
 7.13
 7.53
 11.69
 60.75
 60.42
 60.02
Columbus Crew SC 15.84
 15.61
 15.46
 11.74
 59.76
 59.99
 60.14
New England Revolution 15.43
 15.25
 15.09
 12.38
 58.82
 59.00
 59.16
New York City FC * 13.86
 14.35
 14.53
 11.27
 58.72
 58.23
 58.05
Philadelphia Union 7.97
 7.96
 8.05
 12.71
 57.86
 57.87
 57.78
Houston Dynamo 16.29
 16.21
 15.96
 11.47
 56.16
 56.24
 56.49
Chicago Fire 18.96
 18.86
 18.69
 14.89
 44.29
 44.39
 44.56

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

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