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Week 22 Power Ranking Averages

16 of 19 sites published. TOR and SEA advance four steps, SKC and NER retreat two.

By Kreg Asay
Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports


16 of 19 sites published for Week 22.  One new site added - CSN Chicago which is a bi-weekly ranking; I've added their past ranks to the averages will be included until the end of the season.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) *No ranking Wk 22
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis) *No ranking Wk 22
  • Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)
  • CSN Chicago (csnchicago.com/chicago-fire) *No ranking Wk 22

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.  This does mean that it is possible to get an average lower than 20!  For previous weeks I've just rounded it up to "20", but for going forward I will list averages as they are.

Wk22 Wk21 Wk20 Team
Wk22
Avg
Wk21
Avg
Wk20
Avg
Worst
 		Best
1
 1
 2
 Dallas 1.29
 1.25
 2.00
 4
 1
2
 3
 1
 Colorado 2.93
 3.56
 1.86
 5
 1
3
 2
 3
 Los Angeles 3.07
 2.31
 2.57
 5
 1
4
 8
 11
 Toronto 4.43
 7.88
 10.21
 7
 2
5
 4
 6
 New York FC 5.50
 4.38
 7.07
 8
 3
6
 5
 4
 New York RB 6.79
 5.81
 5.43
 11
 3
7
 6
 5
 Montreal 7.14
 7.75
 5.93
 8
 6
8
 6
 7
 Salt Lake 7.64
 7.75
 9.21
 12
 5
9
 11
 9
 Portland 9.86
 11.44
 9.50
 12
 7
10
 10
 8
 Philadelphia 11.21
 10.94
 9.43
 14
 8
11
 9
 10
 Kansas City 11.36
 8.81
 10.07
 12
 9
12
 12
 13
 San Jose 12.29
 12.94
 12.79
 15
 9
13
 13
 12
 Vancouver 14.86
 13.31
 12.07
 19
 12
14
 18
 19
 Seattle 16.00
 18.75
 20.14
 17
 13
15
 14
 15
 Orlando 16.43
 14.19
 16.36
 18
 11
16
 16
 16
 D. C. U. 16.50
 17.13
 17.29
 18
 9
17
 15
 14
 New England 16.86
 15.63
 15.00
 19
 13
18
 17
 17
 Houston 18.64
 18.63
 18.36
 20
 14
19
 20
 18
 Columbus 20.64
 20.44
 18.93
 20
 17
20
 19
 20
 Chicago 20.79
 19.94
 20.57
 20
 16
  • Largest Rise: Toronto, Seattle +4
  • Largest Fall: Kansas City, New England -2

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 		#
Exact
 		1
off
 		2
off
 3
off		 4
off
 		5+
off
 		Furthest
off
 		most
bias vs
 		most
bias for
Who Scored
 3
 6
 6
 0
 3
 2
 DCU
 VAN -6.41
 DCU +5.55
Jeff Sagarin
 7
 7
 3
 3
 0
 0
 3@+/-3
 POR -2.44
 HOU +3.39
Sports Club Stats
 4
 9
 4
 3
 0
 0
 3@+/-3 POR -5.26
 CHI +3.09
Sports Illustrated 9
 6
 1
 2
 2
 0
 DCU/NER
 COL -2.80 SEA +3.73
ESPN
 5
 9
 2
 1
 3
 0
 3@+/-4
 RSL -2.95
 POR +3.65
Soccer America 4
 11
 2
 3
 0
 0
 3@+/-3 NYRB -1.39 CHI +2.63
Major League Soccer 8
 10
 2
 0
 0
 0
 ORL/TFC
 COL -1.69 TFC +2.74
The Mane Land 8
 9
 2
 1
 0
 0
 PHI
 PHI -2.51 VAN +3.62
Soccer By Ives 7
 11
 1
 1
 0
 0
 DCU
 COL -2.05 SEA +2.88
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes 3
 6
 6
 4
 1
 0
 VAN
 FCD -2.55 CLB +4.47
Reddit r/MLS 9
 6
 5
 0
 0
 0
 5@+/-2
 DCU -0.55 VAN +1.18
MLS Fantasy Boss
 NA





PHI -3.88
 POR +6.61
The Score 9
 3
 7
 0
 0
 1
 NYRB
 COL -1.78 VAN +2.04
Power Rankings & More 7
 11
 1
 1
 0
 0
 RSL
 TFC -1.80
 NYFC +2.66
Seattle Times 10
 7
 2
 1
 0
 0
 RSL
 COL -0.91
 VAN +2.33
Hot Footy 6
 7
 2
 5
 0
 0
 5@+/-3
 POR -1.46
 SKC +2.09
Sportify
 NA





PHI -2.50
 POR +3.24
Black & Red United
 3
 9
 1
 7
 0
 0
 7@+/-3
 TFC -4.03
 COL +4.29
CSN Chicago NA





ORL -1.94
 SEA +3.39
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Seattle Times:  with 10 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 2 off by 5+.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Who Scored with VAN 6.41 from avg.
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 6.61 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with COL 0.55 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit r/MLS with VAN 1.18 places from avg.

5 Year Average
Season ending power rank averaged over the last 5 years.

Team
 		5 Yr
Avg*
 Wk 21
 		Wk 20
 		Wk 19 Wk 18
LA Galaxy 5.37
 5.38
 5.39
 5.40
 5.41
Sporting Kansas City 5.75
 5.73
 5.73
 5.72
 5.69
Real Salt Lake 6.26
 6.25
 6.23
 6.20
 6.18
FC Dallas 7.13
 7.14
 7.17
 7.18
 7.20
New York Red Bulls 7.53
 7.57
 7.63
 7.69
 7.72
Seattle Sounders 7.90
 7.91
 7.88
 7.84
 7.80
Vancouver Whitecaps 8.91
 8.88
 8.67
 8.87
 8.88
San Jose Earthquakes 10.10
 10.08
 10.04
 10.00
 9.96
Portland Timbers 10.43
 10.42
 10.40
 10.40
 10.42
D.C. United 10.87
 10.87
 10.86
 10.85
 10.86
Colorado Rapids 11.49
 11.52
 11.54
 11.82
 11.64
Houston Dynamo 11.56
 11.54
 11.52
 11.50
 11.48
Montreal Impact 11.58
 11.57
 11.55
 11.55
 11.52
Columbus Crew SC 11.92
 11.88
 11.84
 11.82
 11.64
Toronto FC 12.25
 12.29
 12.29
 12.26
 12.22
New England Revolution 12.40
 12.39
 12.39
 12.39
 12.39
Philadelphia Union 12.76
 12.73
 12.70
 12.69
 12.70
Orlando City 13.33
 13.23
 13.18
 13.07
 12.94
New York City FC 13.76
 13.91
 14.11
 13.04
 14.50
Chicago Fire 14.96
 14.94
 14.93
 14.92
 14.91


FIFA-esque Power Ranking
The Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.

Team
 		Week
22		 Week
21
Week
20
Week
19
Week
18
LA Galaxy 83.77
 83.74
 83.68
 83.62
 83.58
FC Dallas 80.37
 80.28
 80.17
 80.1
 80.02
Sporting Kansas City 77.86
 77.96
 77.95
 78.00
 78.15
Real Salt Lake 76.05
 76.10
 76.17
 76.32
 76.44
New York Red Bulls 72.76
 72.57
 72.30
 72.00
 71.84
Seattle Sounders 70.29
 70.28
 70.41
 70.63
 70.80
Vancouver Whitecaps 69.85
 69.98
 70.04
 70.50
 70.00
Portland Timbers 66.55
 66.58
 66.68
 66.70
 66.57
Toronto FC 63.75
 63.59
 63.58
 63.70
 63.94
San Jose Earthquakes 62.54
 62.68
 62.88
 63.08
 63.28
D.C. United 62.30
 62.31
 62.35
 62.40
 62.36
Colorado Rapids 61.76
 61.62
 61.51
 61.29
 61.02
Orlando City * 61.27
 61.46
 61.56
 61.78
 62.05
Montreal Impact 61.07
 61.12
 61.20
 61.20
 61.38
New York City FC * 60.54
 60.23
 59.83
 59.54
 59.06
Columbus Crew SC 58.86
 59.05
 59.24
 59.38
 59.58
New England Revolution 58.69
 58.75
 58.76
 58.74
 58.76
Philadelphia Union 57.60
 57.74
 57.88
 57.96
 57.87
Houston Dynamo 55.70
 55.79
 55.89
 55.98
 56.10
Chicago Fire 43.98
 44.05
 44.09
 44.16
 44.22

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

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