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Week 23 Power Ranking Averages

17 of 19 sites published. Philly rises, Timbers & Caps fall.

By Kreg Asay
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports



17 of 19 sites published for Week 23.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)2
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking) *No ranking Wk 23
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis) *No ranking Wk 23
  • Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)
  • CSN Chicago (csnchicago.com/chicago-fire)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.  This does mean that it is possible to get an average lower than 20!  For previous weeks I've just rounded it up to "20", but for going forward I will list averages as they are.

Wk23 Wk22 Wk21 Team
Wk23
Avg
Wk22
Avg
Wk21
Avg
Worst
 		Best
1
 1
 1
 Dallas 1.33
 1.27
 1.25
 4
 1
2
 3
 3
 Colorado 2.73
 3.07
 3.56
 5
 1
3
 2
 2
 Los Angeles 2.93
 3.00
 2.31
 5
 1
4
 4
 8
 Toronto 4.87
 4.53
 7.88
 7
 2
5
 6
 5
 New York RB 5.53
 6.53
 5.81
 8
 3
6
 5
 4
 New York FC 5.73
 5.40
 4.38
 9
 3
7
 8
 6
 Salt Lake 8.67
 7.73
 7.75
 13
 5
8
 11
 10
 Philadelphia 9.07
 11.40
 10.94
 14
 5
9
 7
 6
 Montreal 9.20
 7.13
 7.75
 12
 6
10
 10
 9
 Kansas City 10.67
 11.27
 8.81
 12
 7
11
 12
 12
 San Jose 11.20
 12.20
 12.94
 14
 7
12
 9
 11
 Portland 12.13
 9.73
 11.44
 14
 4
13
 14
 18
 Seattle 14.13
 15.80
 18.75
 17
 11
14
 16
 16
 D. C. U. 14.93
 16.60
 17.13
 17
 9
15
 15
 14
 Orlando 16.27
 16.27
 14.19
 17
 9
16
 13
 13
 Vancouver 16.47
 14.73
 13.31
 20
 13
17
 18
 17
 Houston 18.67
 18.53
 18.63
 20
 14
18
 17
 15
 New England 18.73
 16.80
 15.63
 20
 16
19
 19
 20
 Columbus 20.20
 20.53
 20.44
 20
 16
20
 20
 19
 Chicago 20.53
 20.73
 19.94
 20
 14
  • Largest Rise: Philadelphia +3
  • Largest Fall: Portland, Vancouver -3

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 		#
Exact
 		1
off
 		2
off
 3
off		 4
off
 		5+
off
 		Furthest
off
 		most
bias vs
 		most
bias for
Who Scored
 1
 7
 5
 3
 1
 3
 CHI/RSL
 VAN -6.25
 DCU +5.58
Jeff Sagarin
 4
 7
 3
 5
 1
 0
 SJE
 NYFC -2.46
 HOU +3.44
Sports Club Stats
 3
 13
 3
 1
 0
 0
 HOU
 POR -5.06
 CHI +2.99
Sports Illustrated 7
 7
 0
 3
 2
 1
 RSL
 COL -2.56 SEA +3.65
ESPN
 6
 4
 6
 2
 0
 2
 ORL/RSL
 RSL -3.01
 POR +3.40
Soccer America 7
 6
 4
 2
 1
 0
 PHI
 NYRB -1.27 CHI +2.54
Major League Soccer 9
 10
 1
 0
 0
 0
 TFC
 COL -1.63 TFC +2.74
The Mane Land 4
 10
 3
 2
 1
 0
 PHI
 PHI -2.51 VAN +3.57
Soccer By Ives 7
 12
 1
 0
 0
 0
 MTL
 COL -1.89 SEA +2.84
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes NA





FCD -2.63 CLB +4.61
Reddit r/MLS 11
 8
 1
 0
 0
 0
 DCU
 DCU -0.56 VAN +1.19
MLS Fantasy Boss
 3
 7
 5
 3
 0
 2
 POR
 PHI -3.93
 POR +6.65
The Score 8
 8
 2
 2
 0
 0
 NY FC/RB
 COL -1.66 VAN +2.00
Power Rankings & More 9
 9
 1
 1
 0
 0
 PHI
 TFC -1.76
 NYFC +2.49
Seattle Times 13
 3
 3
 1
 0
 0
 CLB
 COL -0.82
 VAN +2.27
Hot Footy 9
 3
 7
 1
 0
 0
 NYRB
 POR -1.41
 SKC +2.00
Sportify
 NA





PHI -2.80
 POR +3.19
Black & Red United
 2
 12
 4
 2
 0
 0
 SJE/TFC
 TFC -3.72
 COL +4.02
CSN Chicago 7
 10
 2
 0
 1
 0
 POR
 ORL -1.96
 SEA +3.37
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Seattle Times with 13 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 3 off by 5+.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Who Scored with VAN 6.25 from avg (improved!).
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 6.65 places from avg (increased).
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with COL 0.56 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit r/MLS with VAN 1.19 places from avg.

5 Year Average
Season ending power rank averaged over the last 5 years.

Team
 		5 Yr
Avg*
 Wk 22
 		Wk 21
 		Wk 20
 		Wk 19
LA Galaxy 5.37
 5.37
 5.38
 5.39
 5.40
Sporting Kansas City 5.76
 5.75
 5.73
 5.73
 5.72
Real Salt Lake 6.28
 6.26
 6.25
 6.23
 6.20
FC Dallas 7.11
 7.13
 7.14
 7.17
 7.18
New York Red Bulls 7.49
 7.53
 7.57
 7.63
 7.69
Seattle Sounders 7.88
 7.90
 7.91
 7.88
 7.84
Vancouver Whitecaps 8.94
 8.91
 8.88
 8.67
 8.87
San Jose Earthquakes 10.12
 10.10
 10.08
 10.04
 10.00
Portland Timbers 10.45
 10.43
 10.42
 10.40
 10.40
D.C. United 10.86
 10.87
 10.87
 10.86
 10.85
Colorado Rapids 11.46
 11.49
 11.52
 11.54
 11.82
Houston Dynamo 11.57
 11.56
 11.54
 11.52
 11.50
Montreal Impact 11.61
 11.58
 11.57
 11.55
 11.55
Columbus Crew SC 11.95
 11.92
 11.88
 11.84
 11.82
Toronto FC 12.23
 12.25
 12.29
 12.29
 12.26
New England Revolution 12.43
 12.40
 12.39
 12.39
 12.39
Philadelphia Union 12.77
 12.76
 12.73
 12.70
 12.69
Orlando City 13.41
 13.33
 13.23
 13.18
 13.07
New York City FC 13.62
 13.76
 13.91
 14.11
 13.04
Chicago Fire 14.97
 14.96
 14.94
 14.93
 14.92


FIFA-esque Power Ranking
The Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.

Team
 		Week
23		 Week
22		 Week
21
Week
20
Week
19
LA Galaxy 83.80
 83.77
 83.74
 83.68
 83.62
FC Dallas 80.45
 80.37
 80.28
 80.17
 80.1
Sporting Kansas City 77.80
 77.86
 77.96
 77.95
 78.00
Real Salt Lake 75.95
 76.05
 76.10
 76.17
 76.32
New York Red Bulls 73.00
 72.76
 72.57
 72.30
 72.00
Seattle Sounders 73.39
 70.29
 70.28
 70.41
 70.63
Vancouver Whitecaps 69.67
 69.85
 69.98
 70.04
 70.50
Portland Timbers 66.44
 66.55
 66.58
 66.68
 66.70
Toronto FC 63.88
 63.75
 63.59
 63.58
 63.70
San Jose Earthquakes 62.45
 62.54
 62.68
 62.88
 63.08
D.C. United 62.35
 62.30
 62.31
 62.35
 62.40
Colorado Rapids 61.89
 61.76
 61.62
 61.51
 61.29
Orlando City * 61.11
 61.27
 61.46
 61.56
 61.78
Montreal Impact 60.94
 61.07
 61.12
 61.20
 61.20
New York City FC * 60.82
 60.54
 60.23
 59.83
 59.54
Columbus Crew SC 58.72
 58.86
 59.05
 59.24
 59.38
New England Revolution 58.56
 58.69
 58.75
 58.76
 58.74
Philadelphia Union 57.55
 57.60
 57.74
 57.88
 57.96
Houston Dynamo 55.62
 55.70
 55.79
 55.89
 55.98
Chicago Fire 43.93
 43.98
 44.05
 44.09
 44.16

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

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