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Week 24 Power Ranking Averages

From 17 of 20 sites. New England finally bottoms out, but who's on first?

By Kreg Asay
Kamara reacts to the Rev's finally hitting rock bottom
Kamara reacts to the Rev's finally hitting rock bottom
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports



17 of 20 sites published for Week 24.  One new site added - Inonit.com has just started doing analytical power rankings and is now included for week 23 as well.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news) *No ranking Wk 24
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls) *No ranking Wk 24
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)
  • Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)
  • CSN Chicago (csnchicago.com/chicago-fire) *No ranking Wk 24
  • Inonit.com (inotit.com)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest - this does mean that it is possible to get an average lower than 20!

Wk24
 Wk23
 Wk22
 Team
 Wk24
Avg
 Wk23
Avg
 Wk22
Avg
 Worst
 Best
1
 1
 1
 Dallas
 2.67
 1.50
 1.27
 5
 1
2
 4
 4
 Toronto 2.87
 4.75
 4.53
 6
 1
3
 2
 3
 Colorado 3.67
 2.69
 3.07
 6
 1
4
 3
 2
 Los Angeles 4.20
 2.81
 3.00
 7
 1
5
 6
 5
 New York FC
 3.73
 5.94
 5.40
 10
 1
6
 5
 6
 New York RB 5.60
 5.44
 6.53
 8
 1
7
 7
 8
 Salt Lake 7.93
 8.56
 7.73
 13
 5
8
 10
 10
 Kansas City 8.27
 10.63
 11.27
 10
 6
9
 9
 11
 Philadelphia 11.00
 9.06
 11.40
 16
 7
10
 8
 7
 Montreal 11.53
 9.00
 7.13
 14
 8
11
 13
 14
 Seattle 11.60
 14.19
 15.80
 15
 7
12
 11
 12
 San Jose 11.93
 10.94
 12.20
 16
 8
13
 12
 9
 Portland 13.07
 12.06
 9.73
 15
 7
14
 14
 16
 D. C. U. 14.73
 15.06
 16.60
 17
 8
15
 15
 15
 Orlando 15.47
 16.13
 16.27
 17
 11
16
 17
 18
 Houston
 17.13
 18.38
 18.53
 20
 12
17
 16
 13
 Vancouver 18.60
 16.44
 14.73
 20
 15
18
 19
 19
 Columbus
 19.13
 20.06
 20.53
 19
 15
19
 20
 20
 Chicago
 19.27
 20.44
 20.73
 20
 11
20
 18
 17
 New England 20.40
 18.81
 16.80
 20
 13
  • Largest Rise: Kansas City +2
  • Largest Fall: Colorado, Montreal, Seattle, New England -2

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 #
Exact
 1
off
 2
off
 3
off
 4
off
 5
off
 Worst
 most
bias vs
 most
bias for
Who Scored
 5
 5
 5
 1
 1
 3
 CHI
 VAN -6.01
 CHI +5.64
Jeff Sagarin
 7
 6
 4
 2
 1
 0
 FCD
 NYFC -2.45
 HOU +3.40
Sports Club Stats
 5
 5
 6
 3
 1
 0
 HOU
 POR -4.95 NYFC +3.01
Sports Illustrated
 8
 5
 1
 2
 3
 1
 RSL
 COL -2.37 SEA +3.75
ESPN
 3
 6
 4
 6
 1
 0
 ORL
 RSL -2.91
 POR +3.21
Soccer America
 3
 12
 2
 2
 1
 0
 PHI
 NYRB -1.17
 CHI +2.48
Major League Soccer
 6
 12
 2
 0
 0
 0
 LAG/NYFC
 LAG -1.63
 TFC +2.70
The Mane Land
 6
 5
 7
 1
 1
 0
 NYFC
 PHI -2.43
 VAN +3.58
Soccer By Ives
 9
 9
 1
 1
 0
 0
 SEA
 COL -1.71
 SEA +2.90
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes 3
 7
 4
 3
 3
 0
 3@+/-3
 FCD -2.57
 CLB +4.21
Reddit r/MLS
 11
 8
 1
 0
 0
 0
 NYFC
 DCU -0.55
 VAN +1.22
MLS Fantasy Boss
 2
 9
 4
 3
 1
 1
 POR
 PHI -3.78
 POR +6.44
The Score
 NA





COL -1.74
 VAN +2.26
Power Rankings & More
 NA





TFC -1.96
 NYFC +2.63
Seattle Times
 6
 7
 5
 1
 1
 0
 MTL
 COL -0.74
 VAN +2.26
Hot Footy
 8
 8
 1
 2
 1
 0
 TFC
 NYRB -1.34
 SKC +1.92
Sportify
 2
 7
 3
 4
 2
 2
 PHI
 PHI -3.09
 NYRB +3.71
Black & Red United
 3
 9
 3
 3
 1
 1
 NER
 TFC -3.46
 COL +4.00
CSN Chicago
 NA





ORL -1.85
 SEA +3.18
In On It
 6
 3
 3
 4
 3
 1
 NYFC
 NER -4.10
 NYRB +6.37
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Reddit r/MLS with 11 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 3 off by 5+.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Who Scored with VAN 6.01 from avg (improved!).
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 6.44 places from avg (improved!).
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with DCU 0.55 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit r/MLS with VAN 1.22 places from avg.

5 Year Average
Season ending power rank averaged over the last 5 years (2 years for ORL & NYCFC).

Team
 		5 Yr
Avg
 Wk
23
 Wk
22
 		Wk
21
 		Wk
20
 		Wk
19
LA Galaxy 5.37
 5.37
 5.37
 5.38
 5.39
 5.40
Sporting Kansas City 5.75
 5.76
 5.75
 5.73
 5.73
 5.72
Real Salt Lake 6.29
 6.28
 6.26
 6.25
 6.23
 6.20
FC Dallas 7.11
 7.11
 7.13
 7.14
 7.17
 7.18
New York Red Bulls 7.44
 7.49
 7.53
 7.57
 7.63
 7.69
Seattle Sounders 7.85
 7.89
 7.90
 7.91
 7.88
 7.84
Vancouver Whitecaps 8.99
 8.94
 8.91
 8.88
 8.67
 8.87
San Jose Earthquakes 10.14
 10.12
 10.10
 10.08
 10.04
 10.00
Portland Timbers 10.48
 10.45
 10.43
 10.42
 10.40
 10.40
D.C. United 10.85
 10.87
 10.87
 10.87
 10.86
 10.85
Colorado Rapids 11.45
 11.46
 11.49
 11.52
 11.54
 11.82
Houston Dynamo 11.57
 11.57
 11.56
 11.54
 11.52
 11.50
Montreal Impact 11.65
 11.60
 11.58
 11.57
 11.55
 11.55
Columbus Crew SC 11.96
 11.95
 11.92
 11.88
 11.84
 11.82
Toronto FC 12.19
 12.23
 12.25
 12.29
 12.29
 12.26
New England Revolution 12.47
 12.43
 12.40
 12.39
 12.39
 12.39
Philadelphia Union 12.79
 12.77
 12.76
 12.73
 12.70
 12.69
New York City FC 13.45
 13.62
 13.76
 13.91
 14.11
 13.04
Orlando City 13.46
 13.40
 13.33
 13.23
 13.18
 13.07
Chicago Fire 14.96
 14.97
 14.96
 14.94
 14.93
 14.92


FIFA-esque Power Ranking
The Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.

Team
 		Week
24
 Week
23		 Week
22		 Week
21
Week
20
Week
19
LA Galaxy 83.78
 83.80
 83.77
 83.74
 83.68
 83.62
FC Dallas 80.45
 80.44
 80.37
 80.28
 80.17
 80.1
Sporting Kansas City 77.84
 77.80
 77.86
 77.96
 77.95
 78.00
Real Salt Lake 75.88
 75.95
 76.05
 76.10
 76.17
 76.32
New York Red Bulls 73.23
 73.00
 72.76
 72.57
 72.30
 72.00
Seattle Sounders 70.58
 73.38
 70.29
 70.28
 70.41
 70.63
Vancouver Whitecaps 69.41
 69.67
 69.85
 69.98
 70.04
 70.50
Portland Timbers 66.30
 66.44
 66.55
 66.58
 66.68
 66.70
Toronto FC 64.08
 63.89
 63.75
 63.59
 63.58
 63.70
D.C. United 62.41
 62.34
 62.30
 62.31
 62.35
 62.40
San Jose Earthquakes 62.37
 62.46
 62.54
 62.68
 62.88
 63.08
Colorado Rapids 61.97
 61.89
 61.76
 61.62
 61.51
 61.29
New York City FC * 61.15
 60.81
 60.54
 60.23
 59.83
 59.54
Orlando City * 61.00
 61.12
 61.27
 61.46
 61.56
 61.78
Montreal Impact 60.73
 60.95
 61.07
 61.12
 61.20
 61.20
Columbus Crew SC 58.64
 58.72
 58.86
 59.05
 59.24
 59.38
New England Revolution 58.35
 58.55
 58.69
 58.75
 58.76
 58.74
Philadelphia Union 57.42
 57.55
 57.60
 57.74
 57.88
 57.96
Houston Dynamo 55.63
 55.63
 55.70
 55.79
 55.89
 55.98
Chicago Fire 43.94
 43.93
 43.98
 44.05
 44.09
 44.16

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

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