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Week 21 Power Ranking Averages

16 of 18 sites publishing; with the Rapids loss who will take first?

By Kreg Asay
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images



16 of 18 sites published for Week 21. 

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking) *No ranking Wk 19-21
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis) *No ranking Wk 21
  • Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk21 Wk20 Wk19 Team
Wk21
Avg
Wk20
Avg
Wk19
Avg
Worst
 		Best
1
 2
 2
 Dallas 1.21
 2.00
 2.00
 3
 1
2
 3
 3
 Los Angeles 2.36
 2.57
 2.87
 4
 1
3
 1
 1
 Colorado 3.57
 1.86
 1.53
 5
 2
4
 6
 4
 New York FC 4.43
 7.07
 4.53
 6
 2
5
 4
 8
 New York RB 6.07
 5.43
 8.60
 10
 2
6
 7
 7
 Salt Lake 7.71
 9.21
 8.40
 13
 5
7
 5
 9
 Montreal 7.79
 5.93
 9.47
 10
 5
8
 11
 13
 Toronto 7.93
 10.21
 12.33
 11
 3
9
 10
 12
 Kansas City 9.00
 10.07
 11.87
 12
 5
10
 8
 5
 Philadelphia 10.71
 9.43
 6.20
 14
 7
11
 9
 6
 Portland 11.71
 9.50
 6.80
 15
 4
12
 13
 11
 San Jose 13.00
 12.79
 11.67
 16
 8
13
 12
 10
 Vancouver 13.43
 12.07
 11.20
 20
 9
14
 15
 16
 Orlando 14.43
 16.36
 16.60
 15
 10
15
 14
 15
 New England 15.71
 15.00
 16.36
 19
 12
16
 16
 14
 D. C. U. 17.43
 17.29
 15.60
 18
 10
17
 17
 17
 Houston 18.93
 18.36
 18.73
 19
 15
18
 19
 18
 Seattle 19.00
 19.99
 18.87
 20
 15
19
 20
 20
 Chicago 19.99
 20.00
 20.00
 20
 16
20
 18
 19
 Columbus 20.00
 18.93
 19.80
 20
 17
  • Largest Rise: Toronto +3
  • Largest Fall: Colorado, Montreal, Philadelphia, Portland -2

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 		# Exact
 		1 off
 		2 off
 3 off 4
off
 		5+
off
 		Furthest off
 		most bias vs
 		most bias for
Who Scored
 7
 3
 3
 2
 1
 4
 VAN
 VAN -6.50
 CHI +5.55
Jeff Sagarin
 6
 8
 3
 2
 1
 0
 POR
 POR -2.55
 HOU +3.38
Sports Club Stats
 2
 11
 4
 3
 0
 0
 3@+/-3
 POR -5.46
 CHI +3.22
Sports Illustrated 9
 6
 2
 2
 1
 0
 SJE
 COL -3.06 SEA +3.93
ESPN
 10
 1
 5
 3
 1
 0
 ORL
 RSL -3.07
 POR +3.83
Soccer America 7
 5
 6
 1
 1
 0
 RSL
 NYRB -1.59 CHI +2.70
Major League Soccer 10
 4
 4
 1
 0
 1
 TFC
 COL -1.74 TFC +2.80
The Mane Land 6
 9
 1
 1
 3
 0
 3@+/-4
 PHI -2.60 VAN +3.66
Soccer By Ives 8
 8
 4
 0
 0
 0
 4@+/-2
 COL -2.23 SEA +3.07
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes NA





FCD -2.82 CLB +4.97
Reddit r/MLS 9
 9
 2
 0
 0
 0
 2@+/-2
 COL -0.56 VAN +1.16
MLS Fantasy Boss
 2
 9
 5
 2
 1
 1
 POR
 PHI -4.07
 POR +6.63
The Score 5
 9
 5
 0
 0
 1
 NYRB
 COL -1.91 VAN +2.02
Power Rankings & More 8
 7
 3
 1
 1
 0
 SKC
 TFC -1.93
 NYFC +2.78
Seattle Times 6
 10
 2
 2
 0
 0
 2@+/-3
 COL -1.01
 VAN +2.39
Hot Footy 3
 11
 4
 1
 1
 0
 NYRB
 POR -1.37
 SKC +2.17
Sportify
 NA





SKC -2.49
 POR +3.55
Black & Red United
 8
 6
 3
 2
 1
 0
 SJE
 TFC -4.37
 COL +4.61
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Major League Soccer:  with 10 exact, and 4 off by 1.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 4 off by 5+.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Who Scored with VAN 6.50 from avg.
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 6.63 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with COL 0.56 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit r/MLS with VAN 1.16 places from avg.

5 Year Average
Season ending power rank averaged over the last 5 years.  Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

Team
 		5 Yr
Avg*
 Wk 20
 Wk 18 Wk 17
LA Galaxy 5.38
 5.39
 5.41
 5.42
Sporting Kansas City 5.73
 5.73
 5.69
 5.69
Real Salt Lake 6.26
 6.24
 6.19
 6.19
FC Dallas 7.15
 7.17
 7.20
 7.22
New York Red Bulls 7.57
 7.62
 7.71
 7.74
Seattle Sounders 7.92
 7.90
 7.82
 7.77
Vancouver Whitecaps 8.88
 8.87
 8.88
 8.87
San Jose Earthquakes 10.07
 10.03
 9.96
 9.90
Portland Timbers 10.43
 10.41
 10.43
 10.44
Orlando City * 10.69
 10.66
 10.57
 10.52
D.C. United 10.88
 10.86
 10.86
 10.87
New York City FC * 10.96
 11.04
 11.19
 11.27
Colorado Rapids 11.52
 11.54
 11.64
 11.69
Houston Dynamo 11.54
 11.52
 11.47
 11.47
Montreal Impact 11.57
 11.55
 11.52
 11.50
Columbus Crew SC 11.89
 11.85
 11.78
 11.74
Toronto FC 12.29
 12.30
 12.22
 12.18
New England Revolution 12.39
 12.39
 12.39
 12.38
Philadelphia Union 12.72
 12.69
 12.70
 12.71
Chicago Fire 14.95
 14.94
 14.91
 14.89


FIFA-esque Power Ranking
The Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.

Team
 		Week
21
Week
20
Week
19
Week
18
LA Galaxy 83.73
 83.67
 83.61
 83.57
FC Dallas 80.27
 80.17
 80.10
 80.02
Sporting Kansas City 77.94
 77.94
 77.99
 78.14
Real Salt Lake 76.06
 76.12
 76.28
 76.40
New York Red Bulls 72.57
 72.32
 72.01
 71.86
Seattle Sounders 70.19
 70.33
 70.54
 70.72
Vancouver Whitecaps 69.96
 70.03
 70.03
 69.99
Portland Timbers 66.53
 66.65
 66.68
 66.54
Toronto FC 63.55
 63.54
 63.66
 63.90
San Jose Earthquakes 62.69
 62.89
 63.09
 63.28
D.C. United 62.29
 62.35
 62.40
 62.36
Colorado Rapids 61.61
 61.49
 61.27
 61.00
Orlando City * 61.49
 61.60
 61.82
 62.09
Montreal Impact 61.12
 61.20
 61.20
 61.38
New York City FC * 60.25
 59.85
 59.55
 59.08
Columbus Crew SC 59.03
 58.23
 59.36
 59.57
New England Revolution 58.74
 58.74
 58.71
 58.75
Philadelphia Union 57.79
 57.92
 58.00
 57.90
Houston Dynamo 55.78
 55.90
 55.99
 56.12
Chicago Fire 44.03
 44.07
 44.14
 44.20

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

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