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Week 25 Power Ranking Averages

17 of 20 sites published this week. LA plummet, NYRB & RSL back in top 5

By Kreg Asay
Bruce Arena is not amused
Bruce Arena is not amused
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports



17 of 20 sites published for Week 25.  Reddit /r/MLS ranking will be posting late; thus I opted to run the article without it's inclusion.  The Reddit rankings will be added and any changes noted next week.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls) *No ranking Wk 25
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) *No ranking Wk 25
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news) *No ranking Wk 24-25
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)
  • Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)
  • CSN Chicago (csnchicago.com/chicago-fire)
  • Inonit.com (inotit.com)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages

Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest - this does mean that it is possible to get an average lower than 20!

Wk25 Wk24
 Wk23
 Team
 Wk25
Avg		 Wk24
Avg
 Wk23
Avg
 Worst
 Best
1
 1
 1
 Dallas
 1.53
 2.67
 1.50
 5
 1
2
 2
 4
 Toronto 3.73
 2.87
 4.75
 8
 2
3
 3
 2
 Colorado 4.40
 3.67
 2.69
 9
 2
4
 6
 5
 New York RB 4.67
 5.60
 5.44
 8
 1
5
 7
 7
 Salt Lake 5.27
 7.93
 8.56
 11
 2
6
 5
 6
 New York FC
 5.47
 3.73
 5.94
 10
 3
7
 4
 3
 Los Angeles 5.93
 4.20
 2.81
 12
 1
8
 9
 9
 Philadelphia 7.67
 11.00
 9.06
 10
 5
9
 10
 8
 Montreal 10.13
 11.53
 9.00
 11
 7
10
 8
 10
 Kansas City 10.67
 8.27
 10.63
 13
 7
11
 13
 12
 Portland 11.47
 13.07
 12.06
 12
 8
12
 14
 14
 D. C. U. 12.33
 14.73
 15.06
 14
 8
13
 11
 13
 Seattle 14.13
 11.60
 14.19
 17
 10
14
 15
 15
 Orlando 14.87
 15.47
 16.13
 16
 10
15
 12
 11
 San Jose 15.53
 11.93
 10.94
 18
 13
16
 18
 19
 Columbus 17.80
 19.13
 20.06
 18
 14
17
 17
 16
 Vancouver 18.07
 18.60
 16.44
 19
 15
18
 16
 17
 Houston 18.53
 17.13
 18.38
 20
 16
19
 19
 20
 Chicago
 20.47
 19.27
 20.44
 20
 13
20
 20
 18
 New England 20.80
 20.40
 18.81
 20
 17
  • Largest Rise: New York RB, Salt Lake, Portland, D.C., Columbus +2
  • Largest Fall: Los Angeles, San Jose -3

Analytic Site Average

For those interested in seeing how the Analytic Sites differ, here's their averages alone.

Wk25
 Team
 Wk25
Avg		 Difference
1
 Toronto 2.33
 -1
2
 Dallas
 2.83
 +1
3
 Los Angeles 3.00
 -4
4
 New York RB 3.33
 0
5
 Colorado 4.50
 +2
6
 New York FC
 6.17
 0
7
 Philadelphia 7.17
 -1
8
 Salt Lake 8.00
 +3
9
 Montreal 8.83
 0
10
 Kansas City 10.67
 0
10
 Portland 10.67
 +1
12
 D. C. U. 10.83
 0
13
 Seattle 13.83
 0
14
 Orlando 14.17
 0
15
 San Jose 14.67
 0
16
 Columbus 16.83
 0
17
 Houston 17.00
 -1
18
 Vancouver 17.17
 +1
19
 Chicago
 17.83
 0
20
 New England 19.83
 0

Site Evaluations

Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 #
Exact
 1
off
 2
off
 3
off
 4
off
 5
off
 Worst
 most
bias vs
 most
bias for
Who Scored
 5
 6
 2
 2
 2
 3
 CHI/LAG/RSL
 VAN -5.80
 CHI +5.72
Jeff Sagarin
 8
 7
 3
 1
 0
 1
 LAG
 NYFC -2.41
 HOU +3.37
Sports Club Stats
 6
 10
 4
 0
 0
 0
 4 @ +/-2
 POR -4.74 NYFC +2.99
Sports Illustrated
 5
 8
 3
 4
 0
 0
 4 @ +/-3 COL -2.21 SEA +3.78
ESPN
 7
 5
 6
 0
 1
 1
 LAG
 RSL -2.82
 POR +3.18
Soccer America
 8
 6
 3
 2
 0
 1
 COL
 NYRB -1.10
 CHI +2.48
Major League Soccer
 8
 10
 2
 0
 0
 0
 COL/NYFC
 LAG -1.65
 TFC +2.65
The Mane Land
 4
 9
 2
 4
 0
 1
 LAG
 PHI -2.39
 VAN +3.46
Soccer By Ives
 8
 9
 2
 1
 0
 0
 TFC
 COL -1.60
 SEA +2.87
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes 4
 8
 3
 4
 0
 1
 RSL
 FCD -2.43
 CLB +3.91
Reddit r/MLS
 NA





DCU -0.71
 VAN +1.44
MLS Fantasy Boss
 NA





PHI -3.81
 POR +6.52
The Score
 NA





COL -1.78
 VAN +2.48
Power Rankings & More
 3
 10
 4
 2
 0
 1
 TFC
 TFC -2.06
 NER +2.66
Seattle Times
 8
 4
 6
 2
 0
 0
 RSL/TFC
 LAG -0.73
 VAN +2.19
Hot Footy
 9
 5
 1
 4
 0
 0
 4 @ +/-3 NYRB -1.36
 SKC +1.85
Sportify
 5
 7
 5
 3
 0
 0
 COL/NYRB/SJE
 PHI -2.89
 NYRB +3.87
Black & Red United
 5
 4
 6
 3
 1
 1
 TFC
 TFC -3.31
 COL +3.93
CSN Chicago
 8
 11
 0
 1
 0
 0
 RSL
 ORL -1.71
 SEA +3.18
In On It
 8
 6
 3
 0
 2
 1
 LAG
 NER -3.91
 NYRB +6.14
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Hot Footy with 9 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 3 off by 5+.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Who Scored with VAN 5.80 from avg (improved!).
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 6.52 places from avg (worse!).
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Reddit r/MLS with DCU 0.71 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit r/MLS with VAN 1.44 places from avg.

5 Year Average

Season ending power rank averaged over the last 5 years (2 years for ORL & NYCFC).

Team
 		5 Yr
Avg		 Wk
24		 Wk
23
 Wk
22
 		Wk
21
 		Wk
20
LA Galaxy 5.39
 5.37
 5.37
 5.37
 5.38
 5.39
Sporting Kansas City 5.76
 5.75
 5.76
 5.75
 5.73
 5.73
Real Salt Lake 6.28
 6.29
 6.28
 6.26
 6.25
 6.23
FC Dallas 7.10
 7.11
 7.11
 7.13
 7.14
 7.17
New York Red Bulls 7.39
 7.44
 7.49
 7.53
 7.57
 7.63
Seattle Sounders 7.83
 7.85
 7.89
 7.90
 7.91
 7.88
Vancouver Whitecaps 9.04
 8.99
 8.94
 8.91
 8.88
 8.67
San Jose Earthquakes 10.19
 10.14
 10.12
 10.10
 10.08
 10.04
Portland Timbers 10.49
 10.48
 10.45
 10.43
 10.42
 10.40
D.C. United 10.82
 10.85
 10.87
 10.87
 10.87
 10.86
Colorado Rapids 11.44
 11.45
 11.46
 11.49
 11.52
 11.54
Houston Dynamo 11.59
 11.57
 11.57
 11.56
 11.54
 11.52
Montreal Impact 11.68
 11.65
 11.60
 11.58
 11.57
 11.55
Columbus Crew SC 11.97
 11.96
 11.95
 11.92
 11.88
 11.84
Toronto FC 12.16
 12.19
 12.23
 12.25
 12.29
 12.29
New England Revolution 12.51
 12.47
 12.43
 12.40
 12.39
 12.39
Philadelphia Union 12.79
 12.79
 12.77
 12.76
 12.73
 12.70
New York City FC 13.33
 13.45
 13.62
 13.76
 13.91
 14.11
Orlando City 13.50
 13.46
 13.40
 13.33
 13.23
 13.18
Chicago Fire 14.97
 14.96
 14.97
 14.96
 14.94
 14.93


FIFA-esque Power Ranking

The Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.

Team
 		Week
25 		Week
24
 Week
23		 Week
22		 Week
21
Week
20
LA Galaxy 83.69
 83.78
 83.80
 83.77
 83.74
 83.68
FC Dallas 80.52
 80.45
 80.44
 80.37
 80.28
 80.17
Sporting Kansas City 77.79
 77.84
 77.80
 77.86
 77.96
 77.95
Real Salt Lake 75.93
 75.88
 75.95
 76.05
 76.10
 76.17
New York Red Bulls 73.46
 73.23
 73.00
 72.76
 72.57
 72.30
Seattle Sounders 70.65
 70.58
 73.38
 70.29
 70.28
 70.41
Vancouver Whitecaps 69.19
 69.41
 69.67
 69.85
 69.98
 70.04
Portland Timbers 66.22
 66.30
 66.44
 66.55
 66.58
 66.68
Toronto FC 64.24
 64.08
 63.89
 63.75
 63.59
 63.58
D.C. United 62.57
 62.41
 62.34
 62.30
 62.31
 62.35
San Jose Earthquakes 62.12
 62.37
 62.46
 62.54
 62.68
 62.88
Colorado Rapids 62.01
 61.97
 61.89
 61.76
 61.62
 61.51
New York City FC * 61.39
 61.15
 60.81
 60.54
 60.23
 59.83
Orlando City * 60.92
 61.00
 61.12
 61.27
 61.46
 61.56
Montreal Impact 60.58
 60.73
 60.95
 61.07
 61.12
 61.20
Columbus Crew SC 58.61
 58.64
 58.72
 58.86
 59.05
 59.24
New England Revolution 58.16
 58.35
 58.55
 58.69
 58.75
 58.76
Philadelphia Union 57.45
 57.42
 57.55
 57.60
 57.74
 57.88
Houston Dynamo 55.56
 55.63
 55.63
 55.70
 55.79
 55.89
Chicago Fire 43.89
 43.94
 43.93
 43.98
 44.05
 44.09

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

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