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Week 27 Power Ranking Averages

18 of 20 sites publishing. A new team finally rises to the top.

By Kreg Asay
Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports



18 of 20 sites published for Week 27.  Reddit /r/MLS rankings will be late today and will be updated on next week's rankings.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls) *No ranking Wk 27
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz) *No ranking Wk 26-27
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)
  • Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)
  • CSN Chicago (csnchicago.com/chicago-fire)
  • Inonit.com (inotit.com)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages

Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk27 Wk26 Wk25 Team
 Wk27
Avg		 Wk26
Avg		 Wk25
Avg		 Worst
 Best
1
 3
 2
 Toronto 1.94
 3.85
 3.19
 5
 1
2
 1
 1
 Dallas
 2.44
 1.38
 1.44
 5
 1
3
 4
 7
 Los Angeles 2.75
 4.08
 5.75
 6
 1
4
 2
 3
 New York RB 4.19
 3.62
 4.25
 7
 1
4
 7
 3
 Colorado 4.19
 6.54
 4.25
 7
 2
6
 5
 6
 New York FC 6.19
 4.23
 5.06
 11
 3
7
 6
 5
 Salt Lake 6.81
 4.46
 4.94
 13
 4
8
 8
 8
 Philadelphia 8.94
 8.62
 7.38
 14
 5
9
 11
 11
 Portland 9.44
 11.38
 10.69
 13
 6
10
 10
 10
 Kansas City 10.06
 9.38
 10.06
 13
 7
11
 9
 9
 Montreal 10.50
 9.00
 9.38
 15
 8
12
 12
 12
 D. C. U. 12.31
 12.31
 11.75
 16
 7
13
 12
 13
 Seattle 12.81
 12.31
 13.00
 17
 8
14
 15
 14
 Orlando 12.69
 14.23
 13.94
 15
 10
15
 14
 15
 San Jose 15.63
 14.15
 14.69
 18
 14
16
 17
 20
 New England 16.19
 17.92
 19.44
 20
 12
17
 19
 17
 Vancouver 16.44
 18.15
 17.00
 20
 12
18
 20
 18
 Houston 17.75
 18.46
 17.44
 20
 15
19
 16
 19
 Chicago 18.50
 17.31
 19.25
 20
 9
20
 17
 16
 Columbus 19.56
 17.92
 16.63
 20
 16
  • Largest Rise: Colorado +3
  • Largest Fall: Chicago, Columbus -3

Analytic Site Average

For those interested in seeing how the Analytic Sites differ, here's their averages alone.

Wk27 Wk26 Wk25
 Team
 Wk27
Avg		 Wk26
Avg		 Wk25
Avg		 Difference
1
 1
 3
 Los Angeles 1.71
 2.00
 3.00
 -2
2
 4
 1
 Toronto 2.29
 3.00
 2.33
 +1
3
 2
 4
 New York RB 2.71
 2.80
 3.33
 -1
4
 2
 2
 Dallas
 3.29
 2.80
 2.83
 +2
5
 6
 5
 Colorado 4.71
 6.60
 4.50
 +1
6
 5
 6
 New York FC 7.14
 6.00
 6.17
 0
7
 7
 8
 Salt Lake 8.57
 7.00
 8.00
 0
8
 11
 10
 Portland 8.86
 10.60
 10.67
 -1
9
 9
 7
 Philadelphia 9.71
 9.00
 7.17
 +1
10
 10
 10
 Kansas City 9.80
 9.80
 10.67
 0
11
 12
 12
 D. C. U. 10.71
 11.60
 10.83
 -1
12
 8
 9
 Montreal 10.86
 8.60
 8.83
 +1
13
 15
 14
 Orlando 11.71
 14.80
 14.17
 -1
14
 13
 13
 Seattle 12.86
 12.60
 13.83
 +1
15
 14
 15
 San Jose 15.29
 14.00
 14.67
 0
16
 17
 17
 Houston 16.71
 17.00
 17.00
 -2
16
 19
 18
 Vancouver 16.71
 18.60
 17.17
 -1
18
 17
 16
 Columbus 18.86
 17.00
 16.83
 -2
19
 16
 19
 Chicago 17.29
 15.80
 17.83
 0
20
 20
 20
 New England 18.43
 19.80
 19.83
 +4

Site Evaluations

Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 #
Exact
 1
off
 2
off
 3
off
 4
off
 5
off
 Worst
 most
bias vs
 most
bias for
Who Scored
 3
 5
 4
 4
 2
 2
 CHI
 VAN -5.97
 CHI +5.26
Jeff Sagarin
 3
 12
 2
 1
 2
 0
 NER/ORL
 NYFC -2.66
 HOU +2.66
Sports Club Stats
 5
 9
 6
 0
 0
 0
 6@+/-2
 POR -4.87 NYFC +2.40
Sports Illustrated
 7
 7
 3
 2
 1
 0
 SEA
 COL -2.17 SEA +3.21
ESPN
 8
 6
 5
 1
 0
 0
 ORL
 RSL -3.09
 POR +2.87
Soccer America
 5
 8
 5
 1
 1
 0
 PHI
 NYRB -1.18
 CHI +1.70
Major League Soccer
 11
 9
 0
 0
 0
 0
 9@+/-2
 LAG -1.72
 TFC +2.13
The Mane Land
 3
 7
 8
 2
 0
 0
 LA/NER
 PHI -2.52
 VAN +2.66
Soccer By Ives
 7
 6
 4
 1
 2
 0
 DCU/NER
 COL -1.53
 SEA +2.19
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes 8
 3
 4
 2
 1
 2
 DCU/PHI
 RSL -2.63
 POR +3.16
Reddit r/MLS
 NA





DCU -1.23
 VAN +0.99
MLS Fantasy Boss
 3
 8
 3
 3
 3
 0
 MTL/PHI/SEA
 PHI -3.90
 POR +5.94
The Score
 4
 12
 1
 3
 0
 0
 NYFC/NYRB/VAN
 COL -1.74
 VAN +2.02
Power Rankings & More
 6
 7
 4
 1
 1
 1
 VAN
 TFC -2.33
 NER +2.12
Seattle Times
 NA





NYRB -1.20
 VAN +2.12
Hot Footy
 5
 9
 3
 2
 1
 0
 TFC
 NYRB -1.67
 SKC +1.25
Sportify
 4
 3
 6
 5
 0
 2
 PHI
 PHI -3.28
 NYRB +3.76
Black & Red United
 5
 9
 1
 2
 3
 0
 POR/SEA/TFC
 TFC -3.46
 COL +3.60
CSN Chicago
 9
 5
 6
 0
 0
 0
 6@+/-2 HOU -1.96
 RSL +2.66
In On It
 5
 8
 3
 2
 1
 1
 NYFC
 NER -4.36
 NYRB +5.81
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Major League Soccer with 11 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored in tiebreaker.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Who Scored with VAN 5.97 from avg.
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 5.94 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Seattle Times with NYRB 1.20 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit r/MLS with VAN 0.99 places from avg.

5 Year Average

Season ending power rank averaged over the last 5 years (2 years for ORL & NYCFC).

Team
 		5 Yr
Avg		 Wk
26		 Wk
25		 Wk
24		 Wk
23
LA Galaxy 5.36
 5.37
 5.36
 5.35
 5.34
Sporting Kansas City 5.69
 5.68
 5.68
 5.67
 5.68
Real Salt Lake 6.23
 6.22
 6.24
 6.25
 6.24
FC Dallas 7.07
 7.07
 7.08
 7.09
 7.10
New York Red Bulls 7.25
 7.29
 7.34
 7.38
 7.43
Seattle Sounders 7.66
 7.68
 7.70
 7.72
 7.76
Vancouver Whitecaps 9.02
 9.00
 8.95
 8.91
 8.87
San Jose Earthquakes 10.22
 10.17
 10.14
 10.09
 10.08
Portland Timbers 10.43
 10.43
 10.42
 10.40
 10.38
D.C. United 10.66
 10.68
 10.71
 10.74
 10.75
Colorado Rapids 11.42
 11.43
 11.43
 11.44
 11.45
Houston Dynamo 11.49
 11.48
 11.46
 11.59
 11.45
Montreal Impact 11.67
 11.64
 11.62
 11.59
 11.56
Columbus Crew SC 11.86
 11.84
 11.83
 11.83
 11.81
Toronto FC 12.01
 12.05
 12.08
 12.11
 12.15
New England Revolution 12.42
 12.42
 12.40
 12.36
 12.33
Philadelphia Union 12.75
 12.74
 12.74
 12.75
 12.73
New York City FC 12.96
 13.05
 13.17
 13.30
 13.46
Orlando City 13.28
 13.28
 13.24
 13.20
 13.15
Chicago Fire 14.82
 14.82
 14.83
 14.83
 14.83


FIFA-esque Power Ranking

The points are calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current yearly average counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.

Team
 		Week
27 		Week
26 		Week
25 		Week
24
 Week
23
LA Galaxy 83.82
 83.79
 83.81
 83.9
 83.92
FC Dallas 80.67
 80.65
 80.59
 80.53
 80.51
Sporting Kansas City 78.13
 78.18
 78.20
 78.25
 78.20
Real Salt Lake 76.21
 76.22
 76.15
 76.09
 76.14
New York Red Bulls 74.19
 73.99
 73.75
 73.51
 73.30
Seattle Sounders 71.49
 71.41
 71.30
 71.21
 71.02
Vancouver Whitecaps 69.26
 69.40
 69.62
 69.81
 70.05
Portland Timbers 66.51
 66.52
 66.60
 66.66
 66.78
Toronto FC 64.95
 64.76
 64.64
 64.49
 64.28
D.C. United 63.37
 63.26
 63.14
 62.98
 62.91
New York City FC * 62.13
 61.96
 61.71
 61.46
 61.14
Colorado Rapids 62.08
 62.03
 62.07
 62.02
 61.94
San Jose Earthquakes 61.97
 62.20
 62.38
 62.60
 62.70
Orlando City * 61.36
 61.38
 61.45
 61.52
 61.62
Montreal Impact 60.62
 60.77
 60.87
 61.00
 61.19
Columbus Crew SC 59.14
 59.26
 59.32
 59.33
 59.40
New England Revolution 58.61
 58.63
 58.73
 58.89
 59.07
Philadelphia Union 57.64
 57.67
 57.69
 57.65
 57.75
Houston Dynamo 56.05
 56.10
 56.18
 56.23
 56.22
Chicago Fire 44.66
 44.65
 44.60
 44.63
 44.60

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

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