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Week 29 Power Ranking Averages

A perfect 20 / 20 submissions this week! Portland tumbles while 3 teams move up.

By Kreg Asay
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports



Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer)
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings)
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking)
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)
  • Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)
  • CSN Chicago (csnchicago.com/chicago-fire - bi-weekly)
  • Inonit.com (inotit.com)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages

Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk 29

Wk 28

 Wk 27 Team
 Wk29
Avg		 Wk28
Avg		 Wk27
Avg		 Worst
 Best
1
 2
 2
 Dallas 1.89
 2.18
 2.28
 5
 1
2
 1
 1
 Toronto 2.17
 2.00
 1.94
 5
 1
3
 4
 5
 New York RB 2.72
 3.94
 4.44
 6
 1
4
 3
 3
 Los Angeles 4.44
 2.65
 2.72
 10
 2
5
 6
 6
 New York FC 4.83
 5.59
 6.22
 11
 2
6
 5
 4
 Colorado 5.22
 4.71
 4.17
 7
 3
7
 8
 7
 Salt Lake 8.50
 8.35
 6.61
 15
 6
7
 10
 10
 Kansas City 8.50
 10.24
 10.06
 12
 6
9
 11
 14
 Seattle 9.11
 11.29
 12.83
 14
 3
10
 9
 8
 Philadelphia 9.50
 9.47
 8.94
 12
 6
11
 12
 12
 D. C. U. 10.56
 12.24
 12.39
 13
 5
12
 7
 9
 Portland 11.44
 8.24
 9.94
 14
 8
13
 14
 11
 Montreal 14.11
 13.24
 10.44
 19
 10
14
 17
 18
 Houston 14.89
 16.76
 17.89
 19
 10
15
 13
 16
 New England 15.11
 13.18
 16.22
 20
 10
16
 19
 20
 Columbus 15.22
 17.94
 19.50
 18
 11
17
 15
 15
 San Jose 17.00
 15.06
 15.56
 19
 13
18
 18
 17
 Vancouver 17.28
 17.71
 16.28
 20
 14
19
 16
 13
 Orlando 17.83
 15.76
 12.83
 20
 15
20
 20
 19
 Chicago 19.78
 19.59
 18.56
 20
 12
  • Largest Rise: Kansas City, Houston, Columbus +3
  • Largest Fall: Portland -5

Analytic Site Average

For those interested in seeing how the Analytic Sites differ, here's their averages alone.

Wk29
 Wk28 Wk27 Team
 Wk29
Avg		 Wk28
Avg		 Wk27
Avg		 Difference
1
 3
 3
 New York RB 2.00
 2.57
 2.71
 -2
2
 2
 2
 Toronto 2.57
 2.43
 2.29
 0
3
 4
 4
 Dallas 2.71
 3.29
 3.29
 +2
4
 1
 1
 Los Angeles 3.71
 2.00
 1.71
 0
5
 5
 5
 Colorado 5.43
 5.14
 4.71
 -1
6
 6
 6
 New York FC 6.29
 6.43
 7.14
 +1
7
 9
 10
 Kansas City 8.29
 9.86
 9.80
 0
8
 12
 14
 Seattle 8.56
 11.29
 12.86
 -1
9
 9
 11
 D. C. U. 8.57
 9.86
 10.71
 -2
10
 8
 9
 Philadelphia 9.86
 9.71
 9.71
 0
11
 11
 7
 Salt Lake 11.00
 10.00
 8.57
 +4
12
 7
 8
 Portland 11.43
 8.29
 8.86
 0
13
 15
 16
 Houston 13.43
 15.00
 16.71
 -1
14
 18
 18
 Columbus 14.14
 17.57
 18.86
 -2
15
 14
 12
 Montreal 14.71
 14.57
 10.86
 +2
16
 13
 15
 San Jose 16.00
 13.86
 15.29
 -1
17
 18
 16
 Vancouver 17.29
 17.57
 16.71
 -1
18
 16
 13
 Orlando 17.43
 15.71
 11.71
 -1
19
 17
 20
 New England 17.71
 16.43
 18.43
 +4
20
 20
 19
 Chicago 18.57
 18.29
 17.29
 0

Site Evaluations

Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 #
Exact
 1
off
 2
off
 3
off
 4
off
 5+
off
 Worst
 most
bias vs
 most
bias for
Who Scored
 3
 4
 6
 1
 2
 4
 CHI/RSL
 VAN -5.74
 CHI +5.50
Jeff Sagarin
 5
 8
 3
 2
 1
 1
 NER
 NYFC -2.53
 HOU +2.67
Sports Club Stats
 8
 5
 2
 3
 1
 1
 HOU
 POR -4.60 NYFC +2.39
Sports Illustrated
 6
 8
 3
 1
 0
 2
 NER/SKC
 COL -2.06 SEA +3.16
ESPN
 4
 5
 9
 0
 1
 1
 LAG
 RSL -2.88
 POR +2.76
Soccer America
 5
 5
 7
 2
 1
 0
 RSL
 NYRB -0.97
 CHI +1.60
Major League Soccer
 6
 10
 3
 1
 0
 0
 SKC
 LAG -1.67
 TFC +2.05
The Mane Land
 7
 6
 6
 1
 0
 0
 COL
 PHI -2.45
 VAN +2.39
Soccer By Ives
 8
 7
 2
 2
 1
 0
 VAN
 COL -1.41
 SEA +2.20
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes 6
 7
 3
 1
 1
 2
 RSL
 RSL -3.12
 POR +2.71
Reddit r/MLS
 12
 7
 1
 0
 0
 0
 POR
 DCU -1.21
 VAN +0.72
MLS Fantasy Boss
 4
 3
 7
 4
 1
 1
 MTL
 PHI -3.84
 POR +5.72
The Score
 4
 10
 4
 1
 1
 0
 VAN
 COL -1.68
 VAN +2.01
Power Rankings & More
 11
 7
 2
 0
 0
 0
 HOU/LAG
 TFC -2.09
 NER +2.05
Seattle Times
 8
 8
 3
 1
 0
 0
 CLB
 NYRB -0.96
 VAN +1.86
Hot Footy
 6
 3
 7
 3
 0
 1
 HOU
 HNOU -1.72
 SKC +1.10
Sportify
 3
 3
 8
 2
 1
 3
 RSL
 PHI -3.35
 NYRB +3.84
Black & Red United
 6
 5
 4
 4
 1
 0
 SJE
 TFC -3.12
 COL +3.38
CSN Chicago
 8
 8
 2
 1
 1
 0
 MTL
 ORL -1.77
 RSL +2.52
In On It
 2
 10
 4
 0
 2
 2
 NYFC
 NER -4.47
 NYRB +5.57
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Reddit r/MLS with 12 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 4 off by 5 or more.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Who Scored with VAN 5.74 from avg.
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 5.72 places from avg.

5 Year Average

Season ending power rank averaged over the last 5 years (2 years for ORL & NYCFC).

Team
 		5 Yr
Avg		 Wk
28 		Wk
27 		Wk
26		 Wk
25		 Wk
24
LA Galaxy 5.36
 5.36
 5.36
 5.37
 5.36
 5.35
Sporting Kansas City 5.70
 5.70
 5.69
 5.68
 5.68
 5.67
Real Salt Lake 6.25
 6.24
 6.23
 6.22
 6.24
 6.25
FC Dallas 7.05
 7.06
 7.07
 7.07
 7.08
 7.09
New York Red Bulls 7.17
 7.21
 7.25
 7.29
 7.34
 7.38
Seattle Sounders 7.60
 7.64
 7.66
 7.68
 7.70
 7.72
Vancouver Whitecaps 9.09
 9.06
 9.02
 9.00
 8.95
 8.91
San Jose Earthquakes 10.30
 10.26
 10.22
 10.17
 10.14
 10.09
Portland Timbers 10.44
 10.42
 10.43
 10.43
 10.42
 10.40
D.C. United 10.61
 10.64
 10.66
 10.68
 10.71
 10.74
Colorado Rapids 11.42
 11.42
 11.42
 11.43
 11.43
 11.44
Houston Dynamo 11.48
 11.49
 11.49
 11.48
 11.46
 11.59
Montreal Impact 11.77
 11.72
 11.67
 11.64
 11.62
 11.59
Columbus Crew SC 11.87
 11.87
 11.86
 11.84
 11.83
 11.83
Toronto FC 11.95
 11.98
 12.01
 12.05
 12.08
 12.11
New England Revolution 12.40
 12.40
 12.42
 12.42
 12.40
 12.36
Philadelphia Union 12.77
 12.76
 12.75
 12.74
 12.74
 12.75
New York City FC 12.78
 12.88
 12.96
 13.05
 13.17
 13.30
Orlando City 13.43
 13.34
 13.28
 13.28
 13.24
 13.20
Chicago Fire 14.84
 14.83
 14.82
 14.82
 14.83
 14.83


FIFA-esque Power Ranking

The Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.

Team
 		Week
29 		Week
28 		Week
27 		Week
26 		Week
25 		Week
24
LA Galaxy 83.82
 83.85
 83.82
 83.79
 83.81
 83.9
FC Dallas 80.73
 80.70
 80.67
 80.65
 80.59
 80.53
Sporting Kansas City 78.10
 78.09
 78.13
 78.18
 78.20
 78.25
Real Salt Lake 76.07
 76.14
 76.21
 76.22
 76.15
 76.09
New York Red Bulls 74.60
 74.38
 74.19
 73.99
 73.75
 73.51
Seattle Sounders 71.81
 71.62
 71.49
 71.41
 71.30
 71.21
Vancouver Whitecaps 68.94
 69.09
 69.26
 69.40
 69.62
 69.81
Portland Timbers 66.48
 66.56
 66.51
 66.52
 66.60
 66.66
Toronto FC 65.27
 65.11
 64.95
 64.76
 64.64
 64.49
D.C. United 63.62
 63.47
 63.37
 63.26
 63.14
 62.98
New York City FC * 62.49
 62.30
 62.13
 61.96
 61.71
 61.46
Colorado Rapids 62.11
 62.11
 62.08
 62.03
 62.07
 62.02
San Jose Earthquakes 61.54
 61.78
 61.97
 62.20
 62.38
 62.60
Orlando City * 61.06
 61.24
 61.36
 61.38
 61.45
 61.52
Montreal Impact 60.13
 60.38
 60.62
 60.77
 60.87
 61.00
Columbus Crew SC 59.12
 59.09
 59.14
 59.26
 59.32
 59.33
New England Revolution 58.72
 58.70
 58.61
 58.63
 58.73
 58.89
Philadelphia Union 57.55
 57.59
 57.64
 57.67
 57.69
 57.65
Houston Dynamo 56.09
 56.03
 56.05
 56.10
 56.18
 56.23
Chicago Fire 44.58
 44.62
 44.66
 44.65
 44.60
 44.63

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

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