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Week 26 Power Ranking Averages

Dallas remain on top; Colorado drops out of top 5, LA and Chicago rise 3.

By Kreg Asay
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

14 of 20 sites published for Week 26, likely due to the international Break.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)
  • Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html) *No ranking Wk 26
  • Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)
  • ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer) *No ranking Wk 26
  • SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)
  • Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)
  • The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings) *No ranking Wk 26
  • Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking) *No ranking Wk 26
  • Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)
  • Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz) *No ranking Wk 26
  • Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer)
  • Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)
  • Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)
  • CSN Chicago (csnchicago.com/chicago-fire) *No ranking Wk 26
  • Inonit.com (inotit.com)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages
Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk26 Wk25 Wk24
 Team
 Wk26
Avg		 Wk25
Avg		 Wk24
Avg
 Worst
 Best
1
 1
 1
 Dallas
 1.42
 1.44
 2.53
 5
 1
2
 2
 2
 Toronto 3.67
 3.19
 2.47
 8
 2
3
 3
 6
 New York RB 3.75
 4.25
 5.13
 7
 1
4
 7
 4
 Los Angeles 4.00
 5.75
 3.93
 11
 1
5
 6
 5
 New York FC 4.25
 5.06
 3.53
 10
 2
6
 5
 7
 Salt Lake 4.58
 4.94
 7.60
 11
 2
7
 3
 3
 Colorado 6.50
 4.25
 3.60
 9
 4
8
 8
 9
 Philadelphia 8.58
 7.38
 10.33
 12
 6
9
 9
 10
 Montreal 8.75
 9.38
 10.67
 12
 6
10
 10
 8
 Kansas City 9.50
 10.06
 7.73
 12
 7
11
 11
 13
 Portland 11.50
 10.69
 12.13
 13
 7
12
 13
 11
 Seattle 12.42
 13.00
 10.80
 16
 9
13
 12
 14
 D. C. U. 12.17
 11.75
 14.00
 14
 8
14
 15
 12
 San Jose 14.08
 14.69
 11.33
 17
 11
15
 14
 15
 Orlando 14.33
 13.94
 14.47
 15
 13
16
 19
 19
 Chicago 17.25
 19.25
 18.07
 19
 10
17
 16
 18
 Columbus 17.83
 16.63
 17.87
 20
 16
18
 20
 20
 New England 18.00
 19.44
 19.53
 20
 16
19
 18
 16
 Houston 18.33
 17.44
 16.00
 20
 16
19
 17
 17
 Vancouver 18.33
 17.00
 17.53
 20
 16
  • Largest Rise: Los Angeles, Chicago +3
  • Largest Fall: Colorado -4

Analytic Site Average
For those interested in seeing how the Analytic Sites differ, here's their averages alone.

Wk26 Wk25
 Team
 Wk26
Avg		 Wk25
Avg		 Difference
1
 3
 Los Angeles 2.00
 3.00
 -4
2
 4
 New York RB 2.80
 3.33
 -1
2
 2
 Dallas
 2.80
 2.83
 +1
4
 1
 Toronto 3.00
 2.33
 +2
5
 6
 New York FC 6.00
 6.17
 0
6
 5
 Colorado 6.60
 4.50
 -1
7
 8
 Salt Lake 7.00
 8.00
 +1
8
 9
 Montreal 8.60
 8.83
 +1
9
 7
 Philadelphia 9.00
 7.17
 +1
10
 10
 Kansas City 9.80
 10.67
 0
11
 10
 Portland 10.60
 10.67
 0
12
 12
 D. C. U. 11.60
 10.83
 -1
13
 13
 Seattle 12.60
 13.83
 +1
14
 15
 San Jose 14.00
 14.67
 0
15
 14
 Orlando 14.80
 14.17
 0
16
 19
 Chicago 15.80
 17.83
 0
17
 16
 Columbus 17.00
 16.83
 0
17
 17
 Houston 17.00
 17.00
 -2
19
 18
 Vancouver 18.60
 17.17
 0
20
 20
 New England 19.80
 19.83
 +2

Site Evaluations
Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site
 #
Exact
 1
off
 2
off
 3
off
 4
off
 5
off
 Worst
 most
bias vs
 most
bias for
Who Scored
 6
 6
 3
 1
 1
 3
 VAN
 VAN -6.06
 CHI +5.09
Jeff Sagarin
 7
 6
 4
 3
 0
 0
 3@+/-3
 NYFC -2.73
 HOU +2.74
Sports Club Stats
 NA





POR -5.03 NYFC +2.42
Sports Illustrated
 6
 9
 3
 2
 0
 0
 DCU/SEA
 COL -2.19 SEA +3.17
ESPN
 NA





RSL -3.11
 POR +2.89
Soccer America
 8
 8
 3
 1
 0
 0
 SKC
 NYRB -1.30
 CHI +1.74
Major League Soccer
 10
 7
 3
 0
 0
 0
 3@+/-2
 LAG -1.77
 TFC +2.18
The Mane Land
 2
 3
 12
 1
 1
 1
 LAG
 PHI -2.58
 VAN +2.85
Soccer By Ives
 NA





COL -1.62
 SEA +2.12
Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes NA





FCD -2.56
 POR +3.37
Reddit r/MLS
 8
 7
 4
 1
 0
 0
 RSL
 DCU -1.12
 VAN +0.85
MLS Fantasy Boss
 7
 4
 6
 2
 1
 0
 POR
 PHI -3.93
 POR +6.05
The Score
 8
 6
 3
 3
 0
 0
 3@+/-3
 COL -1.78
 VAN +2.02
Power Rankings & More
 2
 9
 5
 3
 0
 1
 TFC
 TFC -2.48
 NER +2.08
Seattle Times
 NA





NYRB -0.99
 VAN +1.98
Hot Footy
 8
 5
 2
 3
 1
 1
 TFC
 NYRB -1.64
 SKC +1.36
Sportify
 4
 5
 8
 2
 1
 0
 PHI
 PHI -3.15
 NYRB +3.68
Black & Red United
 3
 4
 5
 5
 2
 1
 TFC
 TFC -3.65
 COL +3.73
CSN Chicago
 NA





ORL -2.16
 RSL +2.79
In On It
 7
 4
 3
 4
 1
 1
 NYFC
 NER -4.38
 NYRB +5.87
  • Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) Major League Soccer with 10 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Who Scored with 3 off by 5+.
  • Site with Worst Bias VS:  Who Scored with VAN 6.06 from avg.
  • Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 6.05 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias VS: Seattle Times with NYRB 0.99 places from avg.
  • Site with Least Bias FOR: Reddit r/MLS with VAN 0.85 places from avg.

5 Year Average
Season ending power rank averaged over the last 5 years (2 years for ORL & NYCFC).

Team
 		5 Yr
Avg		 Wk
25		 Wk
24		 Wk
23
LA Galaxy 5.37
 5.36
 5.35
 5.34
Sporting Kansas City 5.68
 5.68
 5.67
 5.68
Real Salt Lake 6.22
 6.24
 6.25
 6.24
FC Dallas 7.07
 7.08
 7.09
 7.10
New York Red Bulls 7.29
 7.34
 7.38
 7.43
Seattle Sounders 7.68
 7.70
 7.72
 7.76
Vancouver Whitecaps 9.00
 8.95
 8.91
 8.87
San Jose Earthquakes 10.17
 10.14
 10.09
 10.08
Portland Timbers 10.43
 10.42
 10.40
 10.38
D.C. United 10.68
 10.71
 10.74
 10.75
Colorado Rapids 11.43
 11.43
 11.44
 11.45
Houston Dynamo 11.48
 11.46
 11.59
 11.45
Montreal Impact 11.64
 11.62
 11.59
 11.56
Columbus Crew SC 11.84
 11.83
 11.83
 11.81
Toronto FC 12.05
 12.08
 12.11
 12.15
New England Revolution 12.42
 12.40
 12.36
 12.33
Philadelphia Union 12.74
 12.74
 12.75
 12.73
New York City FC 13.05
 13.17
 13.30
 13.46
Orlando City 13.28
 13.24
 13.20
 13.15
Chicago Fire 14.82
 14.83
 14.83
 14.83


FIFA-esque Power Ranking
The Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.

Team
 		Week
26 		Week
25 		Week
24
 Week
23
LA Galaxy 83.79
 83.81
 83.9
 83.92
FC Dallas 80.65
 80.59
 80.53
 80.51
Sporting Kansas City 78.17
 78.20
 78.25
 78.20
Real Salt Lake 76.22
 76.15
 76.09
 76.14
New York Red Bulls 73.98
 73.75
 73.51
 73.30
Seattle Sounders 71.40
 71.30
 71.21
 71.02
Vancouver Whitecaps 69.40
 69.62
 69.81
 70.05
Portland Timbers 66.51
 66.60
 66.66
 66.78
Toronto FC 64.77
 64.64
 64.49
 64.28
D.C. United 63.26
 63.14
 62.98
 62.91
San Jose Earthquakes 62.20
 62.38
 62.60
 62.70
Colorado Rapids 62.03
 62.07
 62.02
 61.94
New York City FC * 61.96
 61.71
 61.46
 61.14
Orlando City * 61.37
 61.45
 61.52
 61.62
Montreal Impact 60.78
 60.87
 61.00
 61.19
Columbus Crew SC 59.26
 59.32
 59.33
 59.40
New England Revolution 58.63
 58.73
 58.89
 59.07
Philadelphia Union 57.67
 57.69
 57.65
 57.75
Houston Dynamo 56.10
 56.18
 56.23
 56.22
Chicago Fire 44.66
 44.60
 44.63
 44.60

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

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