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"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14
Looks like not everyone was ready for MLS to return after the FIFA break; only 10 of 14 publishing rankings. One site published late last week so totals and positions have been updated.
Now on to the rankings. As always, if you come across a site that I’ve not included please send me their link! It may not be used this season, but I’ll check to see if they continue in 2018.
Sites Used
- Jeff Sagarin’s MLS Rankings (sagarin.com/sports/soccer)
- MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com) - No ranking wk 32
- In On It (inonit.com/mls-playoffs-odds/power-rankings)
- Five Thirty Eight (projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls)
- Sports Illustrated (SI.com/planet-futbol) - No ranking wk 30-32
- ESPN (ESPNFC.com/major-league-soccer/19/index)
- Soccer America (socceramerica.com)
- MLS Soccer (mlssoccer.com/series/power-rankings)
- Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com) - No ranking wk 30-32
- The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
- Reddit MLS (reddit/r/MLS)
- MLS Aces (mlsaces.sportsblog.com) - No ranking wk 32
- Stumptown Footy (stumptownfooty.com/)
- Massey Rankings (masseyratings.com/mls/ratings)
You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; the analytic sites function as a counterbalance to the rest which are based more on personal opinions. All the averages use the Olympic method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to remove potential bias. The ‘6 year average’ is the season ending average with each preceding year’s value decreasing by 10% (2017=100%, 2012=50%).
2022 Power Ranking Average
Place | Team | Wk 33 | Wk 34 | Wk Best | Wk Worst | Std. Dev | 2022 Avg | 5-yr avg |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Place | Team | Wk 33 | Wk 34 | Wk Best | Wk Worst | Std. Dev | 2022 Avg | 5-yr avg |
21 | Atlanta United FC | 20.67 | 20.86 | 10 | 25 | 4.46 | 17.6 | 11.0832 |
5 | Austin FC | 5.22 | 6.14 | 5 | 17 | 4.02 | 7.2 | 12.992 |
23 | Charlotte FC | 20 | 21.71 | 16 | 27 | 3.61 | 22.8 | 14.784 |
24 | Chicago Fire | 23.56 | 22.71 | 17 | 24 | 2.17 | 20.7 | 19.678 |
10 | Cincinnati (FC) | 11.11 | 9.57 | 7 | 13 | 1.87 | 17.5 | 19.634 |
18 | Colorado Rapids | 20.44 | 18.71 | 14 | 22 | 2.65 | 16 | 15.666 |
12 | Columbus Crew SC | 8.89 | 12.71 | 4 | 16 | 3.76 | 11.3 | 10.859 |
28 | D.C. United | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 24.5 | 17.176 |
6 | Dallas (FC) | 5.89 | 6.29 | 4 | 16 | 3.82 | 8.5 | 11.1342 |
26 | Houston Dynamo | 24.56 | 25.43 | 24 | 27 | 0.88 | 22 | 17.22 |
15 | Inter Miami CF | 14 | 15.14 | 11 | 21 | 3.91 | 21.3 | 17.622 |
9 | L.A. Galaxy | 10.33 | 8.57 | 6 | 12 | 2.06 | 9.8 | 11.408 |
2 | Los Angeles FC | 1.56 | 1.71 | 1 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 5.5268 |
11 | Minnesota United FC | 15.22 | 12.14 | 7 | 17 | 2.93 | 11 | 12.076 |
3 | Montreal (CF) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 3.06 | 10.2 | 14.52 |
7 | Nashville SC | 8.11 | 6.86 | 4 | 10 | 1.96 | 8.7 | 11.874 |
17 | New England Revolution | 20 | 18.29 | 6 | 23 | 4.77 | 14.7 | 12.164 |
4 | New York City FC | 6.33 | 4.86 | 3 | 10 | 2.11 | 6.6 | 6.5156 |
8 | New York RB | 7.11 | 7.29 | 5 | 10 | 1.58 | 6.4 | 9.5228 |
16 | Orlando City SC | 14.11 | 15.86 | 13 | 23 | 3.87 | 13.5 | 13.312 |
1 | Philadelphia Union | 1.44 | 1.29 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 6.902 |
14 | Portland Timbers | 11.67 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 2.79 | 13.8 | 11.134 |
13 | Real Salt Lake | 14.44 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 1.79 | 10.8 | 13.31 |
25 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 24.43 | 19 | 26 | 2.65 | 23.8 | 18.838 |
19 | Seattle Sounders FC | 19.44 | 19.43 | 12 | 23 | 3.91 | 13.9 | 7.384 |
22 | Sporting Kansas City | 20.22 | 21.14 | 16 | 26 | 3.14 | 23.5 | 10.9248 |
27 | Toronto FC | 25.67 | 26.43 | 20 | 27 | 2.54 | 21.7 | 14.724 |
20 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 18.56 | 20.14 | 16 | 25 | 3.49 | 22.6 | 19.364 |
- Highest Standard Deviation: Vancouver Whitecaps 3.85 barely edging San Jose Earthquakes at 3.84.
- Lowest Standard Deviation: Toronto FC 0.0
- Biggest Rise: New England Revolution up 3
- Biggest Fall: Sporting Kansas City down 4
Closest to average
Site | # Exact | 1 Off | 2 Off | 3 Off | 4 Off | 5 Off | 6+ Off |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Site | # Exact | 1 Off | 2 Off | 3 Off | 4 Off | 5 Off | 6+ Off |
Jeff Sagarin | 4 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
FiveThirtyEight | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Massey | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
ESPN | 7 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Soccer America | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
MLS | 11 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
MLS Fantasy Boss | 6 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Reddit /r/mls | 10 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The Mane Land | 6 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Philly Soc Page | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
MLS Multiplex | NA | ||||||
Dallas News | NA | ||||||
Pro Soccer USA | NA | ||||||
Who Scored | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
Stumptown Footy | NA | ||||||
Soccer By Ives | NA | ||||||
Couch Metrics | 7 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
- Most Accurate for the week: MLS with 10 exact matches.
- Least Accurate for the week: Soccer America with 5 off by 5+ and 3 off by 4 (tiebreaker).
This table shows how far each team is from average listed by site. Negatives are better (higher on table), positives are worse (lower on table) than the season average from all sites. The further off a site is for each team may indicate how strongly biased they are.
2018 Power Ranking Site Bias
Team / Site | AVG | Jeff Sagarin | Five-Thirty-Eight | Massey | ESPN | Soc. Amer | MLS | MLS Fant. Boss | Reddit /r/mls | Mane Land | Philly Soc. Page | MLS Multiplex | Dallas News | Pro Soc. USA | Who Scored | Couch Metrics | AVG | Team / Site |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team / Site | AVG | Jeff Sagarin | Five-Thirty-Eight | Massey | ESPN | Soc. Amer | MLS | MLS Fant. Boss | Reddit /r/mls | Mane Land | Philly Soc. Page | MLS Multiplex | Dallas News | Pro Soc. USA | Who Scored | Couch Metrics | AVG | Team / Site |
Atlanta United | 2.258 | -0.108 | -0.998 | -0.078 | -0.568 | 0.332 | -0.318 | -0.568 | -0.198 | 2.072 | -0.198 | 0.012 | -0.158 | -0.698 | 2.282 | -1.218 | 2.258 | Atlanta United |
Chicago Fire | 17.654 | -1.864 | 0.696 | 0.166 | 0.846 | 0.406 | 1.026 | -0.484 | 0.586 | -0.414 | -0.074 | 0.176 | 0.046 | 1.586 | 0.556 | 0.606 | 17.654 | Chicago Fire |
Colorado Rapids | 20.757 | -0.847 | 0.303 | -0.317 | 0.713 | -1.567 | 0.333 | 0.003 | 0.423 | 0.543 | -0.047 | -1.427 | -1.257 | -0.517 | 0.203 | 0.373 | 20.757 | Colorado Rapids |
Columbus Crew | 7.794 | -0.294 | 0.206 | 0.676 | -1.294 | 0.116 | -0.504 | -0.314 | -1.234 | -0.584 | -0.184 | 0.006 | 1.936 | 0.166 | 5.456 | 1.466 | 7.794 | Columbus Crew |
D.C. United | 17.043 | -2.663 | 0.667 | -2.303 | 0.957 | 0.617 | -0.193 | 1.547 | 0.247 | 0.317 | -0.883 | 0.957 | 1.857 | -0.643 | 0.497 | 1.437 | 17.043 | D.C. United |
FC Dallas | 7.068 | 0.522 | -0.478 | -0.778 | 1.342 | -0.818 | -0.098 | -0.068 | 0.022 | 1.052 | 1.222 | -0.168 | 0.402 | -0.988 | -1.608 | -3.718 | 7.068 | FC Dallas |
Houston Dynamo | 12.253 | -2.043 | 1.157 | 1.867 | -0.533 | -0.693 | 0.217 | 0.467 | -0.253 | -1.403 | 2.457 | 0.177 | 0.017 | 1.587 | -2.253 | 1.047 | 12.253 | Houston Dynamo |
Los Angeles FC | 5.945 | 2.315 | -0.125 | -1.505 | 0.055 | -0.285 | 0.235 | -0.355 | -0.155 | 0.815 | -2.335 | 0.255 | 0.425 | 0.535 | -2.085 | -0.685 | 5.945 | Los Angeles FC |
L.A. Galaxy | 12.029 | 1.321 | -0.819 | -0.649 | -0.029 | -1.059 | -0.789 | 4.381 | -0.819 | -0.849 | 4.551 | 0.471 | -1.129 | -0.269 | -0.779 | -1.419 | 12.029 | L.A. Galaxy |
Minnesota United | 18.385 | 1.525 | 1.145 | 0.465 | -1.005 | -0.545 | 0.325 | 1.615 | -0.945 | 1.135 | 0.775 | -0.785 | -1.055 | -0.425 | 1.475 | -1.515 | 18.385 | Minnesota United |
Montreal Impact | 16.1 | 0.25 | 0.75 | -0.45 | 0.18 | 0.06 | -1.04 | 1.45 | 0.05 | -1.58 | 0.51 | 0.93 | -0.8 | -1.78 | -0.67 | 0.38 | 16.1 | Montreal Impact |
N.E. Revolution | 13.431 | -1.431 | 0.629 | -0.871 | 0.909 | -1.741 | 1.159 | -0.121 | 0.809 | 1.089 | -0.491 | -0.361 | -0.831 | 0.529 | -1.141 | -0.521 | 13.431 | N.E. Revolution |
New York FC | 4.348 | -1.138 | -0.998 | -0.228 | 0.492 | 0.372 | 1.182 | -1.108 | 0.062 | 0.502 | 0.842 | 0.982 | -0.578 | 1.452 | 0.192 | 0.002 | 4.348 | New York FC |
New York RB | 3.259 | -0.639 | -0.199 | 0.771 | -0.449 | 1.051 | -0.319 | -0.599 | -0.169 | -0.259 | -0.159 | -0.229 | -0.659 | -0.379 | -1.439 | -0.169 | 3.259 | New York RB |
Orlando SC | 17.946 | 1.904 | 0.874 | 1.644 | -0.816 | -0.356 | -0.296 | 2.504 | -0.536 | -0.526 | 0.444 | -1.476 | 0.184 | -1.666 | 0.014 | -0.816 | 17.946 | Orlando SC |
Philadelphia Union | 13.69 | 1.16 | -0.6 | 0.52 | 0.34 | -0.16 | -0.84 | 0.59 | -0.75 | 0.4 | -0.56 | 0.58 | 2.04 | -0.05 | 0.24 | 0.57 | 13.69 | Philadelphia Union |
Portland Timbers | 9.195 | -0.875 | -1.845 | -0.635 | 0.555 | -0.505 | 0.065 | -0.785 | 1.715 | -0.135 | -1.805 | 0.435 | -1.865 | 0.925 | -0.055 | -2.715 | 9.195 | Portland Timbers |
Real Salt Lake | 13.448 | 3.112 | -0.828 | -1.038 | 0.022 | -0.638 | 0.372 | -0.068 | 0.142 | 3.002 | -1.128 | -0.518 | 1.722 | 0.152 | -2.158 | -1.798 | 13.448 | Real Salt Lake |
San Jose Earthquakes | 20.143 | -0.553 | 2.147 | 0.507 | -0.203 | 0.107 | 0.037 | 0.577 | -0.583 | -0.993 | 1.337 | -0.173 | 0.887 | 0.817 | -5.893 | 2.597 | 20.143 | San Jose Earthquakes |
Seattle Sounders | 12.061 | -0.181 | -1.971 | -0.771 | 0.069 | 2.319 | 0.259 | -4.371 | 1.349 | -1.761 | -2.771 | 2.139 | -0.891 | 0.539 | 2.689 | 1.419 | 12.061 | Seattle Sounders |
Sporting Kansas City | 5.142 | -0.382 | -0.492 | 0.858 | 0.518 | 0.828 | -0.262 | 0.648 | -0.262 | -0.472 | 2.018 | -0.772 | -0.112 | -0.702 | -3.782 | 0.338 | 5.142 | Sporting Kansas City |
Toronto FC | 12.716 | -0.926 | -0.536 | 2.524 | -0.156 | 3.784 | -1.566 | -4.236 | 1.464 | -1.836 | -3.776 | -0.286 | -0.446 | -0.356 | 3.494 | 4.984 | 12.716 | Toronto FC |
Vancouver Whitecaps | 13.016 | 2.134 | 1.924 | -0.016 | -1.546 | -1.296 | 1.334 | -0.426 | -1.106 | 0.194 | 0.594 | -0.816 | 0.584 | 0.464 | 4.914 | -0.316 | 13.016 | Vancouver Whitecaps |
Most Bias VS | (+) | 3.112 | 2.147 | 2.524 | 1.342 | 3.784 | 1.334 | 4.381 | 1.715 | 3.002 | 4.551 | 2.139 | 2.04 | 1.587 | 5.456 | 4.984 | (+) | Most Bias VS |
Most Bias FOR | (-) | -2.663 | -1.971 | -2.303 | -1.546 | -1.741 | -1.566 | -4.371 | -1.234 | -1.836 | -3.776 | -1.476 | -1.865 | -1.78 | -5.893 | -3.718 | (-) | Most Bias FOR |
- Most season bias For: In On It with LA Galaxy 4.985 better than average.
- Most season bias Against: Massey with FC Dallas 4.228 worse than average.
- Least season bias For: Jeff Sagarin with Toronto FC 0.003 above average.
- Least season bias Against: Soccer America with New England Revolution 0.009 below average.
Site Averages
Team / Site | AVG | Jeff Sagarin | Five-Thirty-Eight | Massey | ESPN | Soc. Amer | MLS | MLS Fant. Boss | Reddit /r/mls | Mane Land | Philly Soc. Page | MLS Multiplex | Dallas News | Pro Soc. USA | Who Scored | Couch Metrics | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team / Site | AVG | Jeff Sagarin | Five-Thirty-Eight | Massey | ESPN | Soc. Amer | MLS | MLS Fant. Boss | Reddit /r/mls | Mane Land | Philly Soc. Page | MLS Multiplex | Dallas News | Pro Soc. USA | Who Scored | Couch Metrics | AVG |
Atlanta United | 2.258 | 2.15 | 1.26 | 2.18 | 1.69 | 2.59 | 1.94 | 1.69 | 2.06 | 4.33 | 2.06 | 2.27 | 2.1 | 1.56 | 4.54 | 1.04 | 2.258 |
Chicago Fire | 17.654 | 15.79 | 18.35 | 17.82 | 18.5 | 18.06 | 18.68 | 17.17 | 18.24 | 17.24 | 17.58 | 17.83 | 17.7 | 19.24 | 18.21 | 18.26 | 17.654 |
Colorado Rapids | 20.757 | 19.91 | 21.06 | 20.44 | 21.47 | 19.19 | 21.09 | 20.76 | 21.18 | 21.3 | 20.71 | 19.33 | 19.5 | 20.24 | 20.96 | 21.13 | 20.757 |
Columbus Crew | 7.794 | 7.5 | 8 | 8.47 | 6.5 | 7.91 | 7.29 | 7.48 | 6.56 | 7.21 | 7.61 | 7.8 | 9.73 | 7.96 | 13.25 | 9.26 | 7.794 |
D.C. United | 17.043 | 14.38 | 17.71 | 14.74 | 18 | 17.66 | 16.85 | 18.59 | 17.29 | 17.36 | 16.16 | 18 | 18.9 | 16.4 | 17.54 | 18.48 | 17.043 |
FC Dallas | 7.068 | 7.59 | 6.59 | 6.29 | 8.41 | 6.25 | 6.97 | 7 | 7.09 | 8.12 | 8.29 | 6.9 | 7.47 | 6.08 | 5.46 | 3.35 | 7.068 |
Houston Dynamo | 12.253 | 10.21 | 13.41 | 14.12 | 11.72 | 11.56 | 12.47 | 12.72 | 12 | 10.85 | 14.71 | 12.43 | 12.27 | 13.84 | 10 | 13.3 | 12.253 |
Los Angeles FC | 5.945 | 8.26 | 5.82 | 4.44 | 6 | 5.66 | 6.18 | 5.59 | 5.79 | 6.76 | 3.61 | 6.2 | 6.37 | 6.48 | 3.86 | 5.26 | 5.945 |
L.A. Galaxy | 12.029 | 13.35 | 11.21 | 11.38 | 12 | 10.97 | 11.24 | 16.41 | 11.21 | 11.18 | 16.58 | 12.5 | 10.9 | 11.76 | 11.25 | 10.61 | 12.029 |
Minnesota United | 18.385 | 19.91 | 19.53 | 18.85 | 17.38 | 17.84 | 18.71 | 20 | 17.44 | 19.52 | 19.16 | 17.6 | 17.33 | 17.96 | 19.86 | 16.87 | 18.385 |
Montreal Impact | 16.1 | 16.35 | 16.85 | 15.65 | 16.28 | 16.16 | 15.06 | 17.55 | 16.15 | 14.52 | 16.61 | 17.03 | 15.3 | 14.32 | 15.43 | 16.48 | 16.1 |
N.E. Revolution | 13.431 | 12 | 14.06 | 12.56 | 14.34 | 11.69 | 14.59 | 13.31 | 14.24 | 14.52 | 12.94 | 13.07 | 12.6 | 13.96 | 12.29 | 12.91 | 13.431 |
New York FC | 4.348 | 3.21 | 3.35 | 4.12 | 4.84 | 4.72 | 5.53 | 3.24 | 4.41 | 4.85 | 5.19 | 5.33 | 3.77 | 5.8 | 4.54 | 4.35 | 4.348 |
New York RB | 3.259 | 2.62 | 3.06 | 4.03 | 2.81 | 4.31 | 2.94 | 2.66 | 3.09 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.03 | 2.6 | 2.88 | 1.82 | 3.09 | 3.259 |
Orlando SC | 17.946 | 19.85 | 18.82 | 19.59 | 17.13 | 17.59 | 17.65 | 20.45 | 17.41 | 17.42 | 18.39 | 16.47 | 18.13 | 16.28 | 17.96 | 17.13 | 17.946 |
Philadelphia Union | 13.69 | 14.85 | 13.09 | 14.21 | 14.03 | 13.53 | 12.85 | 14.28 | 12.94 | 14.09 | 13.13 | 14.27 | 15.73 | 13.64 | 13.93 | 14.26 | 13.69 |
Portland Timbers | 9.195 | 8.32 | 7.35 | 8.56 | 9.75 | 8.69 | 9.26 | 8.41 | 10.91 | 9.06 | 7.39 | 9.63 | 7.33 | 10.12 | 9.14 | 6.48 | 9.195 |
Real Salt Lake | 13.448 | 16.56 | 12.62 | 12.41 | 13.47 | 12.81 | 13.82 | 13.38 | 13.59 | 16.45 | 12.32 | 12.93 | 15.17 | 13.6 | 11.29 | 11.65 | 13.448 |
San Jose Earthquakes | 20.143 | 19.59 | 22.29 | 20.65 | 19.94 | 20.25 | 20.18 | 20.72 | 19.56 | 19.15 | 21.48 | 19.97 | 21.03 | 20.96 | 14.25 | 22.74 | 20.143 |
Seattle Sounders | 12.061 | 11.88 | 10.09 | 11.29 | 12.13 | 14.38 | 12.32 | 7.69 | 13.41 | 10.3 | 9.29 | 14.2 | 11.17 | 12.6 | 14.75 | 13.48 | 12.061 |
Sporting Kansas City | 5.142 | 4.76 | 4.65 | 6 | 5.66 | 5.97 | 4.88 | 5.79 | 4.88 | 4.67 | 7.16 | 4.37 | 5.03 | 4.44 | 1.36 | 5.48 | 5.142 |
Toronto FC | 12.716 | 11.79 | 12.18 | 15.24 | 12.56 | 16.5 | 11.15 | 8.48 | 14.18 | 10.88 | 8.94 | 12.43 | 12.27 | 12.36 | 16.21 | 17.7 | 12.716 |
Vancouver Whitecaps | 13.016 | 15.15 | 14.94 | 13 | 11.47 | 11.72 | 14.35 | 12.59 | 11.91 | 13.21 | 13.61 | 12.2 | 13.6 | 13.48 | 17.93 | 12.7 | 13.016 |