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Power Ranking Averages - 2017 Final Totals

Power Ranking Averages Kreg Asay

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14

Only 10 of 14 publishing rankings. Two sites published late last week so totals and positions have been updated.

Now on to the rankings. As always, if you come across a site that I’ve not included please send me their link! It may not be used this season, but I’ll check to see if they continue in 2018.

Sites Used

  • Jeff Sagarin’s MLS Rankings (sagarin.com/sports/soccer)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • In On It (inonit.com/mls-playoffs-odds/power-rankings)
  • Five Thirty Eight (projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls)
  • Sports Illustrated (SI.com/planet-futbol) - No ranking wk 30-33
  • ESPN (ESPNFC.com/major-league-soccer/19/index) - No ranking wk 33
  • Soccer America (socceramerica.com)
  • MLS Soccer (mlssoccer.com/series/power-rankings)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com) - No ranking wk 33
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Reddit MLS (reddit/r/MLS)
  • MLS Aces (mlsaces.sportsblog.com) - No ranking wk 32-33
  • Stumptown Footy (stumptownfooty.com/)
  • Massey Rankings (masseyratings.com/mls/ratings)

You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; the analytic sites function as a counterbalance to the rest which are based more on personal opinions. All the averages use the Olympic method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to remove potential bias.

2021 MLS Power Ranking Averages

Avg 23 Avg 24 Avg 25&26 Team Best Worst St. Dev 2021 Avg S/High S/Low
Avg 23 Avg 24 Avg 25&26 Team Best Worst St. Dev 2021 Avg S/High S/Low
15.11 11.8 9.91 Atlanta United 5 14 3.08 13.9 8.5 21.58
23.89 25.3 25.91 Austin FC 20 27 1.9 19.1 10.25 25.91
21.67 22.5 23.36 Chicago Fire 13 26 3.44 23.6 17.29 26.33
3.33 4.2 4.82 Colorado Rapids 3 9 1.87 8.2 3.33 18
19.89 20.8 19.27 Columbus Crew 10 22 3.32 12.2 4.13 20.8
12.44 12.8 13.18 D.C. United 3 18 3.94 16.9 9.55 25.57
25 24.3 25.18 FC Cincinnati 24 26 0.69 24.6 20.43 26.9
18.67 19.3 20.45 FC Dallas 16 23 2.56 19.2 13.38 23
25.22 24.2 22.82 Houston Dynamo 21 25 0.99 19.8 14.29 25.22
19.44 17.6 19.55 Inter Miami 13 26 3.55 22.4 17.25 26.82
13.56 12.3 14 Los Angeles FC 2 19 4.7 10.7 2.71 17.09
10 9 12.36 Los Angeles Galaxy 6 20 4.45 9.3 4.7 14.29
8.67 10.1 11.09 Minnesota United 5 15 2.84 14.9 8.64 23.7
13.89 14.8 10.73 Montreal (C.F.) 8 15 2.34 15.5 10.73 20
4.22 4.4 5.09 Nashville SC 3 7 1.12 9.7 4.22 18
1.22 1.2 1.18 NE. Revolution 1 4 0.87 3.7 1.18 9.14
4.67 5.8 5.82 New York City FC 1 9 2.32 5.3 2.58 11.86
19.22 19.6 18.18 New York RB 10 22 3.76 15.6 9.58 21.5
8.67 9.7 15.18 Orlando City 9 20 3.33 7.8 3.17 15.18
10.78 10.2 9.45 Philadelphia Union 5 13 2.84 8.1 3.14 12.75
15.89 12.6 10.91 Portland Timbers 6 23 4.94 14.5 8.93 19.36
14 15.3 12.27 Real Salt Lake 5 18 3.91 14.4 10.38 23.71
17.67 18.4 19.18 San Jose Earthquakes 14 26 3.2 18.3 7.1 23.42
3.67 2.6 3.18 Seattle Sounders 2 8 1.85 2 1 4
4.67 4.2 2.45 Sporting Kansas City 1 6 1.33 4.4 1.82 11.75
26.89 27 26.55 Toronto FC 24 27 0.96 22.4 13.43 27
15.44 18.2 18.09 Vancouver Whitecaps 10 21 3.04 21.1 15.44 25.73

Closest to average

Site # Exact 1 Off 2 Off 3 Off 4 Off 5 Off 6+ Off
Site # Exact 1 Off 2 Off 3 Off 4 Off 5 Off 6+ Off
Jeff Sagarin 4 10 1 3 4 0 1
FiveThirtyEight 11 7 2 2 1 0 0
Massey 4 3 4 5 1 2 4
ESPN 7 9 4 0 1 2 0
Soccer America 11 6 1 4 0 1 0
MLS 11 7 2 1 1 1 0
MLS Fantasy Boss 6 11 3 2 1 0 0
Reddit /r/mls 10 8 4 0 1 0 0
The Mane Land 6 8 6 1 1 0 1
Philly Soc Page 7 7 5 2 2 0 0
MLS Multiplex NA
Dallas News NA
Pro Soccer USA NA
Who Scored 4 3 4 5 1 2 4
Stumptown Footy NA
Soccer By Ives NA
Couch Metrics 7 10 3 2 0 1 0
  • Most Accurate for the week: Reddit/r/MLS with 11 exact matches.
  • Least Accurate for the week: Soccer America with 4 off by 5+.

This table shows how far each team is from average listed by site. Negatives are better (higher on table), positives are worse (lower on table) than the season average from all sites. The further off a site is for each team may indicate how strongly biased they are.

2018 Power Ranking Site Bias

Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG Team / Site
Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG Team / Site
Atlanta United 2.258 -0.108 -0.998 -0.078 -0.568 0.332 -0.318 -0.568 -0.198 2.072 -0.198 0.012 -0.158 -0.698 2.282 -1.218 2.258 Atlanta United
Chicago Fire 17.654 -1.864 0.696 0.166 0.846 0.406 1.026 -0.484 0.586 -0.414 -0.074 0.176 0.046 1.586 0.556 0.606 17.654 Chicago Fire
Colorado Rapids 20.757 -0.847 0.303 -0.317 0.713 -1.567 0.333 0.003 0.423 0.543 -0.047 -1.427 -1.257 -0.517 0.203 0.373 20.757 Colorado Rapids
Columbus Crew 7.794 -0.294 0.206 0.676 -1.294 0.116 -0.504 -0.314 -1.234 -0.584 -0.184 0.006 1.936 0.166 5.456 1.466 7.794 Columbus Crew
D.C. United 17.043 -2.663 0.667 -2.303 0.957 0.617 -0.193 1.547 0.247 0.317 -0.883 0.957 1.857 -0.643 0.497 1.437 17.043 D.C. United
FC Dallas 7.068 0.522 -0.478 -0.778 1.342 -0.818 -0.098 -0.068 0.022 1.052 1.222 -0.168 0.402 -0.988 -1.608 -3.718 7.068 FC Dallas
Houston Dynamo 12.253 -2.043 1.157 1.867 -0.533 -0.693 0.217 0.467 -0.253 -1.403 2.457 0.177 0.017 1.587 -2.253 1.047 12.253 Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles FC 5.945 2.315 -0.125 -1.505 0.055 -0.285 0.235 -0.355 -0.155 0.815 -2.335 0.255 0.425 0.535 -2.085 -0.685 5.945 Los Angeles FC
L.A. Galaxy 12.029 1.321 -0.819 -0.649 -0.029 -1.059 -0.789 4.381 -0.819 -0.849 4.551 0.471 -1.129 -0.269 -0.779 -1.419 12.029 L.A. Galaxy
Minnesota United 18.385 1.525 1.145 0.465 -1.005 -0.545 0.325 1.615 -0.945 1.135 0.775 -0.785 -1.055 -0.425 1.475 -1.515 18.385 Minnesota United
Montreal Impact 16.1 0.25 0.75 -0.45 0.18 0.06 -1.04 1.45 0.05 -1.58 0.51 0.93 -0.8 -1.78 -0.67 0.38 16.1 Montreal Impact
N.E. Revolution 13.431 -1.431 0.629 -0.871 0.909 -1.741 1.159 -0.121 0.809 1.089 -0.491 -0.361 -0.831 0.529 -1.141 -0.521 13.431 N.E. Revolution
New York FC 4.348 -1.138 -0.998 -0.228 0.492 0.372 1.182 -1.108 0.062 0.502 0.842 0.982 -0.578 1.452 0.192 0.002 4.348 New York FC
New York RB 3.259 -0.639 -0.199 0.771 -0.449 1.051 -0.319 -0.599 -0.169 -0.259 -0.159 -0.229 -0.659 -0.379 -1.439 -0.169 3.259 New York RB
Orlando SC 17.946 1.904 0.874 1.644 -0.816 -0.356 -0.296 2.504 -0.536 -0.526 0.444 -1.476 0.184 -1.666 0.014 -0.816 17.946 Orlando SC
Philadelphia Union 13.69 1.16 -0.6 0.52 0.34 -0.16 -0.84 0.59 -0.75 0.4 -0.56 0.58 2.04 -0.05 0.24 0.57 13.69 Philadelphia Union
Portland Timbers 9.195 -0.875 -1.845 -0.635 0.555 -0.505 0.065 -0.785 1.715 -0.135 -1.805 0.435 -1.865 0.925 -0.055 -2.715 9.195 Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake 13.448 3.112 -0.828 -1.038 0.022 -0.638 0.372 -0.068 0.142 3.002 -1.128 -0.518 1.722 0.152 -2.158 -1.798 13.448 Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes 20.143 -0.553 2.147 0.507 -0.203 0.107 0.037 0.577 -0.583 -0.993 1.337 -0.173 0.887 0.817 -5.893 2.597 20.143 San Jose Earthquakes
Seattle Sounders 12.061 -0.181 -1.971 -0.771 0.069 2.319 0.259 -4.371 1.349 -1.761 -2.771 2.139 -0.891 0.539 2.689 1.419 12.061 Seattle Sounders
Sporting Kansas City 5.142 -0.382 -0.492 0.858 0.518 0.828 -0.262 0.648 -0.262 -0.472 2.018 -0.772 -0.112 -0.702 -3.782 0.338 5.142 Sporting Kansas City
Toronto FC 12.716 -0.926 -0.536 2.524 -0.156 3.784 -1.566 -4.236 1.464 -1.836 -3.776 -0.286 -0.446 -0.356 3.494 4.984 12.716 Toronto FC
Vancouver Whitecaps 13.016 2.134 1.924 -0.016 -1.546 -1.296 1.334 -0.426 -1.106 0.194 0.594 -0.816 0.584 0.464 4.914 -0.316 13.016 Vancouver Whitecaps
Most Bias VS (+) 3.112 2.147 2.524 1.342 3.784 1.334 4.381 1.715 3.002 4.551 2.139 2.04 1.587 5.456 4.984 (+) Most Bias VS
Most Bias FOR (-) -2.663 -1.971 -2.303 -1.546 -1.741 -1.566 -4.371 -1.234 -1.836 -3.776 -1.476 -1.865 -1.78 -5.893 -3.718 (-) Most Bias FOR
  • Most season bias For: In On It with LA Galaxy 4.897 better than average.
  • Most season bias Against: Massey with FC Dallas 4.258 worse than average.
  • Least season bias For: ESPN with FC Dallas 0.002 above average.
  • Least season bias Against: Sports Illustrated with Philadelphia Union 0.004 below average.

Site Averages

Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG
Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG
Atlanta United 2.258 2.15 1.26 2.18 1.69 2.59 1.94 1.69 2.06 4.33 2.06 2.27 2.1 1.56 4.54 1.04 2.258
Chicago Fire 17.654 15.79 18.35 17.82 18.5 18.06 18.68 17.17 18.24 17.24 17.58 17.83 17.7 19.24 18.21 18.26 17.654
Colorado Rapids 20.757 19.91 21.06 20.44 21.47 19.19 21.09 20.76 21.18 21.3 20.71 19.33 19.5 20.24 20.96 21.13 20.757
Columbus Crew 7.794 7.5 8 8.47 6.5 7.91 7.29 7.48 6.56 7.21 7.61 7.8 9.73 7.96 13.25 9.26 7.794
D.C. United 17.043 14.38 17.71 14.74 18 17.66 16.85 18.59 17.29 17.36 16.16 18 18.9 16.4 17.54 18.48 17.043
FC Dallas 7.068 7.59 6.59 6.29 8.41 6.25 6.97 7 7.09 8.12 8.29 6.9 7.47 6.08 5.46 3.35 7.068
Houston Dynamo 12.253 10.21 13.41 14.12 11.72 11.56 12.47 12.72 12 10.85 14.71 12.43 12.27 13.84 10 13.3 12.253
Los Angeles FC 5.945 8.26 5.82 4.44 6 5.66 6.18 5.59 5.79 6.76 3.61 6.2 6.37 6.48 3.86 5.26 5.945
L.A. Galaxy 12.029 13.35 11.21 11.38 12 10.97 11.24 16.41 11.21 11.18 16.58 12.5 10.9 11.76 11.25 10.61 12.029
Minnesota United 18.385 19.91 19.53 18.85 17.38 17.84 18.71 20 17.44 19.52 19.16 17.6 17.33 17.96 19.86 16.87 18.385
Montreal Impact 16.1 16.35 16.85 15.65 16.28 16.16 15.06 17.55 16.15 14.52 16.61 17.03 15.3 14.32 15.43 16.48 16.1
N.E. Revolution 13.431 12 14.06 12.56 14.34 11.69 14.59 13.31 14.24 14.52 12.94 13.07 12.6 13.96 12.29 12.91 13.431
New York FC 4.348 3.21 3.35 4.12 4.84 4.72 5.53 3.24 4.41 4.85 5.19 5.33 3.77 5.8 4.54 4.35 4.348
New York RB 3.259 2.62 3.06 4.03 2.81 4.31 2.94 2.66 3.09 3 3.1 3.03 2.6 2.88 1.82 3.09 3.259
Orlando SC 17.946 19.85 18.82 19.59 17.13 17.59 17.65 20.45 17.41 17.42 18.39 16.47 18.13 16.28 17.96 17.13 17.946
Philadelphia Union 13.69 14.85 13.09 14.21 14.03 13.53 12.85 14.28 12.94 14.09 13.13 14.27 15.73 13.64 13.93 14.26 13.69
Portland Timbers 9.195 8.32 7.35 8.56 9.75 8.69 9.26 8.41 10.91 9.06 7.39 9.63 7.33 10.12 9.14 6.48 9.195
Real Salt Lake 13.448 16.56 12.62 12.41 13.47 12.81 13.82 13.38 13.59 16.45 12.32 12.93 15.17 13.6 11.29 11.65 13.448
San Jose Earthquakes 20.143 19.59 22.29 20.65 19.94 20.25 20.18 20.72 19.56 19.15 21.48 19.97 21.03 20.96 14.25 22.74 20.143
Seattle Sounders 12.061 11.88 10.09 11.29 12.13 14.38 12.32 7.69 13.41 10.3 9.29 14.2 11.17 12.6 14.75 13.48 12.061
Sporting Kansas City 5.142 4.76 4.65 6 5.66 5.97 4.88 5.79 4.88 4.67 7.16 4.37 5.03 4.44 1.36 5.48 5.142
Toronto FC 12.716 11.79 12.18 15.24 12.56 16.5 11.15 8.48 14.18 10.88 8.94 12.43 12.27 12.36 16.21 17.7 12.716
Vancouver Whitecaps 13.016 15.15 14.94 13 11.47 11.72 14.35 12.59 11.91 13.21 13.61 12.2 13.6 13.48 17.93 12.7 13.016

Season averages 2012-2017

As you may notice, expansion teams have an entry for years they weren’t in the league. For those years they are given the average for the entire league. This is to factor in the ‘weighted average’ below, as well as to even out large spikes between years (see NYCFC as an example)

Averages 2012-2017

Team/Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Tot Avg
Team/Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Tot Avg
Atlanta United 9.7 9.677 9.668 10.5 10.5 6.462 9.42
Chicago Fire 7.91 14.35 15.54 17.71 18.8 7.95 13.71
Colorado Rapids 12.85 9.88 11.54 17.38 5.25 18.35 12.54
Columbus Crew 11.7 12.81 9.6 8.75 16.31 11.271 11.74
D.C. United 7.45 17.24 7.49 5.91 13.91 18.79 11.8
FC Dallas 12.88 8.58 6.35 4.64 2.73 6.072 6.88
Houston Dynamo 6.75 7.71 12.77 13.81 16.44 9.235 11.12
L.A. Galaxy 8.39 5.15 5.23 4.51 3.75 15.737 7.13
Minnesota United 9.7 9.677 9.668 10.5 10.5 19.712 11.63
Montreal Impact 13.99 5.17 17.54 15.06 7.52 14.475 12.29
N.E. Revolution 14.78 12.52 9.66 9.5 15.45 15.29 12.87
New York City FC 9.7 9.677 9.668 15.47 9.42 4.404 9.72
New York RB 5.58 6.52 10.05 4.68 8.11 8.352 7.22
Orlando City SC 9.7 9.677 9.668 14.21 13.1 13.02 11.56
Philadelphia Union 15.19 10.45 11.85 18.07 8.66 16.316 13.42
Portland Timbers 15.88 5.83 11.64 9.45 9.78 7.297 9.98
Real Salt Lake 3.7 4.58 4.12 12.43 7.01 17.026 8.14
San Jose Earthquakes 2.61 12.38 15.2 11.14 10.94 14.175 11.07
Seattle Sounders 5.07 9.38 2.86 6.07 13.75 7.891 7.5
Sporting Kansas City 3.07 4.48 5.64 6.35 9.12 5.579 5.71
Toronto FC 17.85 16.83 8.97 9.75 6.21 2.128 10.29
Vancouver Whitecaps 8.95 10.33 7.98 5.09 13.65 12.594 9.77

Weighted Season Average 2012-2017

The ‘6 year average’ is the season ending average with each preceding year’s value decreasing by 10% (2017=100%, 2012=50%).

7 Year Weighted Average

Team/Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Wt Avg
Team/Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Wt Avg
Atlanta United 3.6 4.5 5.4 7 8 5.814 5.025 5.62
Chicago Fire 3.164 7.175 9.324 12.397 15.04 7.155 15.116 9.91
Colorado Rapids 5.14 4.94 6.924 12.166 4.2 16.515 20.61 10.07
Columbus Crew 4.68 6.405 5.76 6.125 13.048 10.143 3.635 7.11
D.C. United 2.98 8.62 4.494 4.137 11.128 16.911 20.467 9.82
FC Dallas 5.152 4.29 3.81 3.248 2.184 5.463 13.863 5.43
Houston Dynamo 2.7 3.855 7.662 9.667 13.152 8.424 9.114 7.8
Los Angeles FC 3.88 4.8385 5.8008 7.35 8.4 10.323 7.629 6.89
L.A. Galaxy 3.356 2.575 3.138 3.157 3 14.166 12.019 5.92
Minnesota United 3.6 4.5 5.4 7 8 17.739 17.825 9.15
Montreal Impact 5.596 2.585 10.524 10.542 6.016 13.032 15.886 9.17
N.E. Revolution 5.912 6.26 5.796 6.65 12.36 13.761 15.139 9.41
New York City FC 3.88 4.8385 5.8008 10.829 7.536 3.96 1.859 5.53
New York RB 2.232 3.26 6.03 3.276 6.488 7.515 5.768 4.94
Orlando City SC 3.88 4.8385 5.8008 9.947 10.48 11.718 18.582 9.32
Philadelphia Union 6.076 5.225 7.11 12.649 6.928 14.688 12.455 9.3
Portland Timbers 6.352 2.915 6.984 6.615 7.824 6.57 17.113 7.77
Real Salt Lake 1.48 2.29 2.472 8.701 5.608 15.327 14.491 7.2
San Jose Earthquakes 1.044 6.19 9.12 7.798 8.752 12.762 14.554 8.6
Seattle Sounders 2.028 4.69 1.716 4.249 11 7.101 12.325 6.16
Sporting Kansas City 1.228 2.24 3.384 4.445 7.296 5.022 8.431 4.58
Toronto FC 7.14 8.415 5.382 6.825 4.968 1.917 4.632 5.61
Vancouver Whitecaps 3.58 5.165 4.788 3.563 10.92 11.331 8.294 6.81