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Power Ranking Averages - Week 3

15 of 19 sites published this week, one new site added. Once again Dallas eke out first, and Minnesota bring up the rear.

Atlanta United FC v Minnesota United FC
Minnesota United get a point, but still bring up the rear.
Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

15 sites published this week, and one new site added - MLS Aces making a total of 19 for the averages! There are a few changes to the tables below.

First I’ve merged the Season Average numbers for 2016 & 2017 into the main Average table for direct sorting to see how well each team is doing compared to last year.

Second change is a big one to the Site Bias table, and depending on feedback from readers such as yourself; may change. There are two versions. In the first each site’s season average is listed as well as the overall season average for each team. By sorting you can see exactly which sites are higher/lower than average for each team. The main problem is this can’t be condensed in width, so it won’t fit on small screens easily. The second version is sorted by site. So let me know which version you prefer, or of both should be included each week!

Now on to the rankings. As always, if you come across a site that I’ve not included please send me their link!

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14

Sites Used

  • Who Scored (whoscored.com)
  • Jeff Sagarin’s MLS Rankings (sagarin.com/sports/soccer)
  • Sports Club Stats (sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS) *No Rank wk 3
  • Sports Illustrated (SI.com/planet-futbol)
  • ESPN (ESPNFC.com/major-league-soccer/19/index)
  • Soccer America (socceramerica.com)
  • MLS Soccer (mlssoccer.com/series/power-rankings)
  • MLS Multiplex (mlsmultiplex.com)
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com)
  • Reddit Computer Rankings (from a Reddit user) *No Rank wk 3
  • Reddit MLS (reddit/r/MLS)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • In On It (inonit.com/mls-playoffs-odds/power-rankings)
  • Once A Metro (onceametro.com) *No Rank wk 3
  • Five Thirty Eight (projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls)
  • Goal (goal.com/en-us)
  • NBC Sports (soccer.nbcsports.com/tag/major-league-soccer) *No Rank wk 3
  • MLS Aces (mlsaces.sportsblog.com)

You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; the analytic sites function as a counterbalance to the rest which are based more on personal opinions. All the averages use the Olympic method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to remove potential bias.


2021 MLS Power Ranking Averages

Avg 27 Avg 28&29 Avg 30 Team Best Worst St. Dev 2021 Avg S/High S/Low
Avg 27 Avg 28&29 Avg 30 Team Best Worst St. Dev 2021 Avg S/High S/Low
11.64 11.64 10.2 Atlanta United 6 14 2.54 13.5 8.5 21.58
24.64 24.45 24.8 Austin FC 21 26 1.9 19.8 10.25 25.91
23.91 23.27 24.2 Chicago Fire 16 26 3.35 23.6 17.29 26.33
5.27 6 4.8 Colorado Rapids 4 7 1.15 7.9 3.33 18
18.82 18.82 18.4 Columbus Crew 14 21 2.67 13 4.13 20.8
10.73 10 10.8 D.C. United 8 18 3.46 16.2 9.55 25.57
26.18 26.73 27 FC Cincinnati 25 27 0.76 24.8 20.43 27
20.82 21.64 21.6 FC Dallas 19 22 1.11 19.5 13.38 23
22.36 23.27 23 Houston Dynamo 22 25 1.07 20.2 14.29 25.22
22.18 22.91 22.8 Inter Miami 21 27 2.48 22.4 17.25 26.82
15.64 17 17.6 Los Angeles FC 8 19 3.78 11.4 2.71 17.6
14.82 16.55 16.6 Los Angeles Galaxy 12 21 3.6 10.1 4.7 16.6
9 11.45 14.6 Minnesota United 12 15 1.11 14.5 8.64 23.7
12.27 11.73 11.8 Montreal (C.F.) 10 17 2.29 15.1 10.73 20
3.73 4.45 4.8 Nashville SC 4 8 1.46 9 3.73 18
1.09 1.09 1.2 NE. Revolution 1 2 0.49 3.4 1.09 9.14
7.27 9.09 8.8 New York City FC 7 14 2.69 5.7 2.58 11.86
16.09 13.27 11.6 New York RB 7 17 3.64 15.3 9.58 21.5
15.91 12 12.6 Orlando City 9 19 3.87 8.5 3.17 15.91
7.91 6.64 5.8 Philadelphia Union 4 7 1.11 7.9 3.14 12.75
8.82 7.45 7.2 Portland Timbers 5 12 2.37 13.7 7.2 19.36
14.18 14.91 12.8 Real Salt Lake 8 16 2.51 14.4 10.38 23.71
17.45 19.55 19.4 San Jose Earthquakes 16 21 1.57 18.3 7.1 23.42
2.55 2.09 2 Seattle Sounders 1 3 0.58 2 1 4
3.55 3.09 3 Sporting Kansas City 1 3 0.76 4.3 1.82 11.75
25.73 23.73 24.8 Toronto FC 20 26 2.06 22.7 13.43 27
16.73 15.64 16.6 Vancouver Whitecaps 9 18 3.04 20.5 15.44 25.73

2018 Power Ranking Site Bias

Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG Team / Site
Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG Team / Site
Atlanta United 2.258 -0.108 -0.998 -0.078 -0.568 0.332 -0.318 -0.568 -0.198 2.072 -0.198 0.012 -0.158 -0.698 2.282 -1.218 2.258 Atlanta United
Chicago Fire 17.654 -1.864 0.696 0.166 0.846 0.406 1.026 -0.484 0.586 -0.414 -0.074 0.176 0.046 1.586 0.556 0.606 17.654 Chicago Fire
Colorado Rapids 20.757 -0.847 0.303 -0.317 0.713 -1.567 0.333 0.003 0.423 0.543 -0.047 -1.427 -1.257 -0.517 0.203 0.373 20.757 Colorado Rapids
Columbus Crew 7.794 -0.294 0.206 0.676 -1.294 0.116 -0.504 -0.314 -1.234 -0.584 -0.184 0.006 1.936 0.166 5.456 1.466 7.794 Columbus Crew
D.C. United 17.043 -2.663 0.667 -2.303 0.957 0.617 -0.193 1.547 0.247 0.317 -0.883 0.957 1.857 -0.643 0.497 1.437 17.043 D.C. United
FC Dallas 7.068 0.522 -0.478 -0.778 1.342 -0.818 -0.098 -0.068 0.022 1.052 1.222 -0.168 0.402 -0.988 -1.608 -3.718 7.068 FC Dallas
Houston Dynamo 12.253 -2.043 1.157 1.867 -0.533 -0.693 0.217 0.467 -0.253 -1.403 2.457 0.177 0.017 1.587 -2.253 1.047 12.253 Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles FC 5.945 2.315 -0.125 -1.505 0.055 -0.285 0.235 -0.355 -0.155 0.815 -2.335 0.255 0.425 0.535 -2.085 -0.685 5.945 Los Angeles FC
L.A. Galaxy 12.029 1.321 -0.819 -0.649 -0.029 -1.059 -0.789 4.381 -0.819 -0.849 4.551 0.471 -1.129 -0.269 -0.779 -1.419 12.029 L.A. Galaxy
Minnesota United 18.385 1.525 1.145 0.465 -1.005 -0.545 0.325 1.615 -0.945 1.135 0.775 -0.785 -1.055 -0.425 1.475 -1.515 18.385 Minnesota United
Montreal Impact 16.1 0.25 0.75 -0.45 0.18 0.06 -1.04 1.45 0.05 -1.58 0.51 0.93 -0.8 -1.78 -0.67 0.38 16.1 Montreal Impact
N.E. Revolution 13.431 -1.431 0.629 -0.871 0.909 -1.741 1.159 -0.121 0.809 1.089 -0.491 -0.361 -0.831 0.529 -1.141 -0.521 13.431 N.E. Revolution
New York FC 4.348 -1.138 -0.998 -0.228 0.492 0.372 1.182 -1.108 0.062 0.502 0.842 0.982 -0.578 1.452 0.192 0.002 4.348 New York FC
New York RB 3.259 -0.639 -0.199 0.771 -0.449 1.051 -0.319 -0.599 -0.169 -0.259 -0.159 -0.229 -0.659 -0.379 -1.439 -0.169 3.259 New York RB
Orlando SC 17.946 1.904 0.874 1.644 -0.816 -0.356 -0.296 2.504 -0.536 -0.526 0.444 -1.476 0.184 -1.666 0.014 -0.816 17.946 Orlando SC
Philadelphia Union 13.69 1.16 -0.6 0.52 0.34 -0.16 -0.84 0.59 -0.75 0.4 -0.56 0.58 2.04 -0.05 0.24 0.57 13.69 Philadelphia Union
Portland Timbers 9.195 -0.875 -1.845 -0.635 0.555 -0.505 0.065 -0.785 1.715 -0.135 -1.805 0.435 -1.865 0.925 -0.055 -2.715 9.195 Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake 13.448 3.112 -0.828 -1.038 0.022 -0.638 0.372 -0.068 0.142 3.002 -1.128 -0.518 1.722 0.152 -2.158 -1.798 13.448 Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes 20.143 -0.553 2.147 0.507 -0.203 0.107 0.037 0.577 -0.583 -0.993 1.337 -0.173 0.887 0.817 -5.893 2.597 20.143 San Jose Earthquakes
Seattle Sounders 12.061 -0.181 -1.971 -0.771 0.069 2.319 0.259 -4.371 1.349 -1.761 -2.771 2.139 -0.891 0.539 2.689 1.419 12.061 Seattle Sounders
Sporting Kansas City 5.142 -0.382 -0.492 0.858 0.518 0.828 -0.262 0.648 -0.262 -0.472 2.018 -0.772 -0.112 -0.702 -3.782 0.338 5.142 Sporting Kansas City
Toronto FC 12.716 -0.926 -0.536 2.524 -0.156 3.784 -1.566 -4.236 1.464 -1.836 -3.776 -0.286 -0.446 -0.356 3.494 4.984 12.716 Toronto FC
Vancouver Whitecaps 13.016 2.134 1.924 -0.016 -1.546 -1.296 1.334 -0.426 -1.106 0.194 0.594 -0.816 0.584 0.464 4.914 -0.316 13.016 Vancouver Whitecaps
Most Bias VS (+) 3.112 2.147 2.524 1.342 3.784 1.334 4.381 1.715 3.002 4.551 2.139 2.04 1.587 5.456 4.984 (+) Most Bias VS
Most Bias FOR (-) -2.663 -1.971 -2.303 -1.546 -1.741 -1.566 -4.371 -1.234 -1.836 -3.776 -1.476 -1.865 -1.78 -5.893 -3.718 (-) Most Bias FOR
  • Site with highest bias For: In On It with LAG ranked 8.28 better than avg.
  • Site with highest bias Against: Sports Club Stats with SEA, and Reddit User with POR ranked 10.7 worse than avg.
  • Site with least bias For: Reddit User and Soccer America with ORL .11 better than avg.
  • Site with least bias Against: MLS Aces and Soccer By Ives with POR .03 worse than avg.

Site Bias Test

Site AVG Who Scored Jeff Sagarin Sports Club Stats Reddit User MLS Fantasy Boss In On It Five-Thirty-Eight Sports Illustrated ESPN Soccer America MLS MLS Multiplex Soccer By Ives The Score Once A Metro Goal Aces Reddit /r/mls NBC Sports Site
Site AVG Who Scored Jeff Sagarin Sports Club Stats Reddit User MLS Fantasy Boss In On It Five-Thirty-Eight Sports Illustrated ESPN Soccer America MLS MLS Multiplex Soccer By Ives The Score Once A Metro Goal Aces Reddit /r/mls NBC Sports Site
Atlanta United 10.99 7.33 14.67 13.5 13.5 9 15.67 14.33 7.67 14.67 15.67 11.33 14.33 9.67 9 13.5 11.67 12 12.33 15.5 Atlanta United
Chicago Fire 14.91 11.33 11.67 9 20 21 20.67 20.67 14.67 14 13.33 18 13 17 19 7 18 16 14.67 15 Chicago Fire
Colorado Rapids 7.43 10.67 10.33 8.5 14.5 7.67 6.33 9 8 8 6.67 8 8 9.67 6.33 7.5 7.67 5 7 5 Colorado Rapids
Columbus Crew 16.21 15.33 17.67 17.5 20.5 18 17.67 14 16.67 17.33 18.33 16 17 17.33 20 13.5 16.67 19 18 19.5 Columbus Crew
D.C. United 13.57 17.33 16.33 13 7 14 13.33 10.33 14.33 13.67 12.33 14.33 14.67 17 18.67 16.5 13.33 10 16 15 D.C. United
FC Dallas 1.94 10.33 3 4.5 3 1 3.33 4 1 1.67 1.67 1 1.33 1 2 3.5 1 1 1.67 1.5 FC Dallas
Houston Dynamo 8.58 7.33 6.33 6 11 14.67 12.67 12 7.67 7 10.67 9.33 15 6.33 7.67 3.5 9.67 10.67 5 9 Houston Dynamo
L.A. Galaxy 11.61 17.33 14.67 22 9 5.67 3.33 6 16.67 15.33 13.33 12 15.67 12.33 10 20 11.67 12.33 12.67 12.5 L.A. Galaxy
Minnesota United 20.28 22 21.67 21 19 18 21.33 22 22 21.67 21.33 22 22 22 22 22 22 21.33 22 22 Minnesota United
Montreal Impact 13.13 18 14.33 19 7.5 12.67 10 15 18 11 14.33 12.67 13 14.33 15.67 18.5 10 9 15.33 17 Montreal Impact
N.E. Revolution 17.26 19 18 17 12 17 20.33 12.33 17 19.67 18.33 19.33 14.67 19 19.67 19 20 21.67 21 21 N.E. Revolution
New York FC 7.28 10 13.33 12.5 6 9.33 8 9.33 5 7.33 6.33 6.33 5.33 6.67 10.67 12 5.33 4.67 9.33 6.5 New York FC
New York RB 3.22 10 3 2 1 2.33 2.33 1.67 4.33 3.67 2 4 3.33 3.67 3 2.5 3.33 8.33 3.33 3 New York RB
Orlando FC 10.11 3.67 7.67 4 10 10.67 11.67 13 7.67 7.67 10 15.33 15.33 13.33 10.67 8.5 15 15.33 7.67 9 Orlando FC
Philadelphia Union 13.58 9.67 11.67 10 16.5 20 13.33 18 18 16 17 15 9.33 12.33 16.67 11 13.67 14.67 15.67 15.5 Philadelphia Union
Portland Timbers 3.3 1 2.33 4.5 14 5.67 10.67 6.33 2 1.33 3 2.33 4.33 3.33 1.67 1 4.67 3.33 1.33 1.5 Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake 15.44 14.67 17 14.5 19 16.67 14.67 18.33 15.67 18 18.67 16.33 14.67 20.67 12.67 15 16.67 16 16.33 16 Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes 11.29 5 10 3.5 19 14.33 15.67 15.67 10.67 9.67 10.33 13.33 17.33 9.67 9.33 4.5 15.33 19 8.33 11.5 San Jose Earthquakes
Seattle Sounders 6.3 11.67 8.67 17 4 4 5.67 2.33 11.33 7 8.33 5 4.67 4.33 4.33 15 4.67 5.33 9 7.5 Seattle Sounders
Sporting Kansas City 8.28 3 8.33 9.5 5.5 9.33 8 6.33 9.33 12.33 6.67 8 7.33 11 13.67 12.5 9.33 7.33 12 13 Sporting Kansas City
Toronto FC 3.7 12.67 4 8.5 2 2.67 1 2 4.67 5 3.33 3 2.67 4 4 11.5 2.67 2 5.33 6 Toronto FC
Vancouver Whitecaps 17.46 15.67 18.33 15 19 19.33 17.33 20.33 20.67 21 21.33 20.33 20 18.33 16.33 15 20.67 19 18.67 10.5 Vancouver Whitecaps