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Power Ranking Averages - Week 15

Only half of the sites published, Montreal goes up, Orlando goes down.

Power Ranking Averages Kreg Asay

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14

Only 9 of 18 sites published, I the international break took a heavy toll.

Now on to the rankings. As always, if you come across a site that I’ve not included please send me their link!

Sites Used

  • Jeff Sagarin’s MLS Rankings (sagarin.com/sports/soccer)
  • In On It (inonit.com/mls-playoffs-odds/power-rankings)
  • Five Thirty Eight (projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls)
  • Sports Illustrated (SI.com/planet-futbol) - No ranking wk 15
  • ESPN (ESPNFC.com/major-league-soccer/19/index) - No ranking wk 15
  • Soccer America (socceramerica.com)
  • MLS Soccer (mlssoccer.com/series/power-rankings)
  • MLS Multiplex (mlsmultiplex.com) - No ranking wk 14-15
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com) - No ranking wk 15
  • Reddit MLS (reddit/r/MLS)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news) - No ranking wk 14-15
  • Once A Metro (onceametro.com) - No ranking wk 14-15
  • Goal (goal.com/en-us) - No ranking wk 15
  • NBC Sports (soccer.nbcsports.com/tag/major-league-soccer) - No ranking wk 14-15
  • MLS Aces (mlsaces.sportsblog.com)
  • Stumptown Footy (stumptownfooty.com/)
  • Blue Testament (thebluetestament.com/power-rankings) - No ranking wk 15

You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; the analytic sites function as a counterbalance to the rest which are based more on personal opinions. All the averages use the Olympic method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to remove potential bias. The ‘6 year average’ is the season ending average with each preceding year’s value decreasing by 10% (2017=100%, 2012=50%).


2021 MLS Power Ranking Averages

Avg 27 Avg 28&29 Avg 30 Team Best Worst St. Dev 2021 Avg S/High S/Low
Avg 27 Avg 28&29 Avg 30 Team Best Worst St. Dev 2021 Avg S/High S/Low
11.64 11.64 10.2 Atlanta United 6 14 2.54 13.5 8.5 21.58
24.64 24.45 24.8 Austin FC 21 26 1.9 19.8 10.25 25.91
23.91 23.27 24.2 Chicago Fire 16 26 3.35 23.6 17.29 26.33
5.27 6 4.8 Colorado Rapids 4 7 1.15 7.9 3.33 18
18.82 18.82 18.4 Columbus Crew 14 21 2.67 13 4.13 20.8
10.73 10 10.8 D.C. United 8 18 3.46 16.2 9.55 25.57
26.18 26.73 27 FC Cincinnati 25 27 0.76 24.8 20.43 27
20.82 21.64 21.6 FC Dallas 19 22 1.11 19.5 13.38 23
22.36 23.27 23 Houston Dynamo 22 25 1.07 20.2 14.29 25.22
22.18 22.91 22.8 Inter Miami 21 27 2.48 22.4 17.25 26.82
15.64 17 17.6 Los Angeles FC 8 19 3.78 11.4 2.71 17.6
14.82 16.55 16.6 Los Angeles Galaxy 12 21 3.6 10.1 4.7 16.6
9 11.45 14.6 Minnesota United 12 15 1.11 14.5 8.64 23.7
12.27 11.73 11.8 Montreal (C.F.) 10 17 2.29 15.1 10.73 20
3.73 4.45 4.8 Nashville SC 4 8 1.46 9 3.73 18
1.09 1.09 1.2 NE. Revolution 1 2 0.49 3.4 1.09 9.14
7.27 9.09 8.8 New York City FC 7 14 2.69 5.7 2.58 11.86
16.09 13.27 11.6 New York RB 7 17 3.64 15.3 9.58 21.5
15.91 12 12.6 Orlando City 9 19 3.87 8.5 3.17 15.91
7.91 6.64 5.8 Philadelphia Union 4 7 1.11 7.9 3.14 12.75
8.82 7.45 7.2 Portland Timbers 5 12 2.37 13.7 7.2 19.36
14.18 14.91 12.8 Real Salt Lake 8 16 2.51 14.4 10.38 23.71
17.45 19.55 19.4 San Jose Earthquakes 16 21 1.57 18.3 7.1 23.42
2.55 2.09 2 Seattle Sounders 1 3 0.58 2 1 4
3.55 3.09 3 Sporting Kansas City 1 3 0.76 4.3 1.82 11.75
25.73 23.73 24.8 Toronto FC 20 26 2.06 22.7 13.43 27
16.73 15.64 16.6 Vancouver Whitecaps 9 18 3.04 20.5 15.44 25.73

Closest to average

Site # Exact 1 Off 2 Off 3 Off 4 Off 5 Off 6+ Off
Site # Exact 1 Off 2 Off 3 Off 4 Off 5 Off 6+ Off
Jeff Sagarin 4 10 1 3 4 0 1
FiveThirtyEight 11 7 2 2 1 0 0
Massey 4 3 4 5 1 2 4
ESPN 7 9 4 0 1 2 0
Soccer America 11 6 1 4 0 1 0
MLS 11 7 2 1 1 1 0
MLS Fantasy Boss 6 11 3 2 1 0 0
Reddit /r/mls 10 8 4 0 1 0 0
The Mane Land 6 8 6 1 1 0 1
Philly Soc Page 7 7 5 2 2 0 0
MLS Multiplex NA
Dallas News NA
Pro Soccer USA NA
Who Scored 4 3 4 5 1 2 4
Stumptown Footy NA
Soccer By Ives NA
Couch Metrics 7 10 3 2 0 1 0
  • Most Accurate for the week: Soccer America with 10 exactly on average.
  • Least Accurate for the week: Stumptown Footy with 4 off by 5+

2018 Power Ranking Site Bias

Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG Team / Site
Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG Team / Site
Atlanta United 2.258 -0.108 -0.998 -0.078 -0.568 0.332 -0.318 -0.568 -0.198 2.072 -0.198 0.012 -0.158 -0.698 2.282 -1.218 2.258 Atlanta United
Chicago Fire 17.654 -1.864 0.696 0.166 0.846 0.406 1.026 -0.484 0.586 -0.414 -0.074 0.176 0.046 1.586 0.556 0.606 17.654 Chicago Fire
Colorado Rapids 20.757 -0.847 0.303 -0.317 0.713 -1.567 0.333 0.003 0.423 0.543 -0.047 -1.427 -1.257 -0.517 0.203 0.373 20.757 Colorado Rapids
Columbus Crew 7.794 -0.294 0.206 0.676 -1.294 0.116 -0.504 -0.314 -1.234 -0.584 -0.184 0.006 1.936 0.166 5.456 1.466 7.794 Columbus Crew
D.C. United 17.043 -2.663 0.667 -2.303 0.957 0.617 -0.193 1.547 0.247 0.317 -0.883 0.957 1.857 -0.643 0.497 1.437 17.043 D.C. United
FC Dallas 7.068 0.522 -0.478 -0.778 1.342 -0.818 -0.098 -0.068 0.022 1.052 1.222 -0.168 0.402 -0.988 -1.608 -3.718 7.068 FC Dallas
Houston Dynamo 12.253 -2.043 1.157 1.867 -0.533 -0.693 0.217 0.467 -0.253 -1.403 2.457 0.177 0.017 1.587 -2.253 1.047 12.253 Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles FC 5.945 2.315 -0.125 -1.505 0.055 -0.285 0.235 -0.355 -0.155 0.815 -2.335 0.255 0.425 0.535 -2.085 -0.685 5.945 Los Angeles FC
L.A. Galaxy 12.029 1.321 -0.819 -0.649 -0.029 -1.059 -0.789 4.381 -0.819 -0.849 4.551 0.471 -1.129 -0.269 -0.779 -1.419 12.029 L.A. Galaxy
Minnesota United 18.385 1.525 1.145 0.465 -1.005 -0.545 0.325 1.615 -0.945 1.135 0.775 -0.785 -1.055 -0.425 1.475 -1.515 18.385 Minnesota United
Montreal Impact 16.1 0.25 0.75 -0.45 0.18 0.06 -1.04 1.45 0.05 -1.58 0.51 0.93 -0.8 -1.78 -0.67 0.38 16.1 Montreal Impact
N.E. Revolution 13.431 -1.431 0.629 -0.871 0.909 -1.741 1.159 -0.121 0.809 1.089 -0.491 -0.361 -0.831 0.529 -1.141 -0.521 13.431 N.E. Revolution
New York FC 4.348 -1.138 -0.998 -0.228 0.492 0.372 1.182 -1.108 0.062 0.502 0.842 0.982 -0.578 1.452 0.192 0.002 4.348 New York FC
New York RB 3.259 -0.639 -0.199 0.771 -0.449 1.051 -0.319 -0.599 -0.169 -0.259 -0.159 -0.229 -0.659 -0.379 -1.439 -0.169 3.259 New York RB
Orlando SC 17.946 1.904 0.874 1.644 -0.816 -0.356 -0.296 2.504 -0.536 -0.526 0.444 -1.476 0.184 -1.666 0.014 -0.816 17.946 Orlando SC
Philadelphia Union 13.69 1.16 -0.6 0.52 0.34 -0.16 -0.84 0.59 -0.75 0.4 -0.56 0.58 2.04 -0.05 0.24 0.57 13.69 Philadelphia Union
Portland Timbers 9.195 -0.875 -1.845 -0.635 0.555 -0.505 0.065 -0.785 1.715 -0.135 -1.805 0.435 -1.865 0.925 -0.055 -2.715 9.195 Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake 13.448 3.112 -0.828 -1.038 0.022 -0.638 0.372 -0.068 0.142 3.002 -1.128 -0.518 1.722 0.152 -2.158 -1.798 13.448 Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes 20.143 -0.553 2.147 0.507 -0.203 0.107 0.037 0.577 -0.583 -0.993 1.337 -0.173 0.887 0.817 -5.893 2.597 20.143 San Jose Earthquakes
Seattle Sounders 12.061 -0.181 -1.971 -0.771 0.069 2.319 0.259 -4.371 1.349 -1.761 -2.771 2.139 -0.891 0.539 2.689 1.419 12.061 Seattle Sounders
Sporting Kansas City 5.142 -0.382 -0.492 0.858 0.518 0.828 -0.262 0.648 -0.262 -0.472 2.018 -0.772 -0.112 -0.702 -3.782 0.338 5.142 Sporting Kansas City
Toronto FC 12.716 -0.926 -0.536 2.524 -0.156 3.784 -1.566 -4.236 1.464 -1.836 -3.776 -0.286 -0.446 -0.356 3.494 4.984 12.716 Toronto FC
Vancouver Whitecaps 13.016 2.134 1.924 -0.016 -1.546 -1.296 1.334 -0.426 -1.106 0.194 0.594 -0.816 0.584 0.464 4.914 -0.316 13.016 Vancouver Whitecaps
Most Bias VS (+) 3.112 2.147 2.524 1.342 3.784 1.334 4.381 1.715 3.002 4.551 2.139 2.04 1.587 5.456 4.984 (+) Most Bias VS
Most Bias FOR (-) -2.663 -1.971 -2.303 -1.546 -1.741 -1.566 -4.371 -1.234 -1.836 -3.776 -1.476 -1.865 -1.78 -5.893 -3.718 (-) Most Bias FOR
  • Most season bias For: In On It with LA Galaxy ranked 7.07 better than avg.
  • Most season bias Against: Stumptown Footy with New York Red Bulls 6.16 worse than average.
  • Least season bias For: Jeff Sagarin with Seattle Sounders 0.003 better than avg.
  • Least season bias Against: The Score with New England Revolution 0.007 worse than avg.

Site Averages

Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG
Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG
Atlanta United 2.258 2.15 1.26 2.18 1.69 2.59 1.94 1.69 2.06 4.33 2.06 2.27 2.1 1.56 4.54 1.04 2.258
Chicago Fire 17.654 15.79 18.35 17.82 18.5 18.06 18.68 17.17 18.24 17.24 17.58 17.83 17.7 19.24 18.21 18.26 17.654
Colorado Rapids 20.757 19.91 21.06 20.44 21.47 19.19 21.09 20.76 21.18 21.3 20.71 19.33 19.5 20.24 20.96 21.13 20.757
Columbus Crew 7.794 7.5 8 8.47 6.5 7.91 7.29 7.48 6.56 7.21 7.61 7.8 9.73 7.96 13.25 9.26 7.794
D.C. United 17.043 14.38 17.71 14.74 18 17.66 16.85 18.59 17.29 17.36 16.16 18 18.9 16.4 17.54 18.48 17.043
FC Dallas 7.068 7.59 6.59 6.29 8.41 6.25 6.97 7 7.09 8.12 8.29 6.9 7.47 6.08 5.46 3.35 7.068
Houston Dynamo 12.253 10.21 13.41 14.12 11.72 11.56 12.47 12.72 12 10.85 14.71 12.43 12.27 13.84 10 13.3 12.253
Los Angeles FC 5.945 8.26 5.82 4.44 6 5.66 6.18 5.59 5.79 6.76 3.61 6.2 6.37 6.48 3.86 5.26 5.945
L.A. Galaxy 12.029 13.35 11.21 11.38 12 10.97 11.24 16.41 11.21 11.18 16.58 12.5 10.9 11.76 11.25 10.61 12.029
Minnesota United 18.385 19.91 19.53 18.85 17.38 17.84 18.71 20 17.44 19.52 19.16 17.6 17.33 17.96 19.86 16.87 18.385
Montreal Impact 16.1 16.35 16.85 15.65 16.28 16.16 15.06 17.55 16.15 14.52 16.61 17.03 15.3 14.32 15.43 16.48 16.1
N.E. Revolution 13.431 12 14.06 12.56 14.34 11.69 14.59 13.31 14.24 14.52 12.94 13.07 12.6 13.96 12.29 12.91 13.431
New York FC 4.348 3.21 3.35 4.12 4.84 4.72 5.53 3.24 4.41 4.85 5.19 5.33 3.77 5.8 4.54 4.35 4.348
New York RB 3.259 2.62 3.06 4.03 2.81 4.31 2.94 2.66 3.09 3 3.1 3.03 2.6 2.88 1.82 3.09 3.259
Orlando SC 17.946 19.85 18.82 19.59 17.13 17.59 17.65 20.45 17.41 17.42 18.39 16.47 18.13 16.28 17.96 17.13 17.946
Philadelphia Union 13.69 14.85 13.09 14.21 14.03 13.53 12.85 14.28 12.94 14.09 13.13 14.27 15.73 13.64 13.93 14.26 13.69
Portland Timbers 9.195 8.32 7.35 8.56 9.75 8.69 9.26 8.41 10.91 9.06 7.39 9.63 7.33 10.12 9.14 6.48 9.195
Real Salt Lake 13.448 16.56 12.62 12.41 13.47 12.81 13.82 13.38 13.59 16.45 12.32 12.93 15.17 13.6 11.29 11.65 13.448
San Jose Earthquakes 20.143 19.59 22.29 20.65 19.94 20.25 20.18 20.72 19.56 19.15 21.48 19.97 21.03 20.96 14.25 22.74 20.143
Seattle Sounders 12.061 11.88 10.09 11.29 12.13 14.38 12.32 7.69 13.41 10.3 9.29 14.2 11.17 12.6 14.75 13.48 12.061
Sporting Kansas City 5.142 4.76 4.65 6 5.66 5.97 4.88 5.79 4.88 4.67 7.16 4.37 5.03 4.44 1.36 5.48 5.142
Toronto FC 12.716 11.79 12.18 15.24 12.56 16.5 11.15 8.48 14.18 10.88 8.94 12.43 12.27 12.36 16.21 17.7 12.716
Vancouver Whitecaps 13.016 15.15 14.94 13 11.47 11.72 14.35 12.59 11.91 13.21 13.61 12.2 13.6 13.48 17.93 12.7 13.016