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Power Ranking Averages - Week 16

17 of 20 sites published. CHI challenging TFC for first, Bulls run amok, Revolution cut short.

By Kreg Asay
Power Ranking Averages Kreg Asay

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14

17 of 20 sites published as nearly everyone returned from the international break. And yes you read right - two new sites added, both are analytic sites (of a sort), the first is Massey Ratings, and the second Reddit’s “Monkey Power Rankings” uses close to the same system. Massey has only 1 week of ratings, while R-MPR has been added back to Wk 2. Soccer By Ives, NBC Sports and Once A Metro all published after I did last week so averages have been adjusted.

Now on to the rankings. As always, if you come across a site that I’ve not included please send me their link!

Sites Used

  • Jeff Sagarin’s MLS Rankings (sagarin.com/sports/soccer)
  • In On It (inonit.com/mls-playoffs-odds/power-rankings)
  • Five Thirty Eight (projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls)
  • Sports Illustrated (SI.com/planet-futbol)
  • ESPN (ESPNFC.com/major-league-soccer/19/index)
  • Soccer America (socceramerica.com)
  • MLS Soccer (mlssoccer.com/series/power-rankings)
  • MLS Multiplex (mlsmultiplex.com) - No ranking wk 14-16
  • Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com)
  • Reddit MLS (reddit/r/MLS)
  • MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
  • The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
  • Once A Metro (onceametro.com)
  • Goal (goal.com/en-us)
  • NBC Sports (soccer.nbcsports.com/tag/major-league-soccer) - No ranking wk 16
  • MLS Aces (mlsaces.sportsblog.com)
  • Stumptown Footy (stumptownfooty.com/)
  • Blue Testament (thebluetestament.com/power-rankings) - No ranking wk 15-16
  • Reddit Monkey Power Ranking (reddit/r/MLS)
  • Massey Rankings (masseyratings.com/mls/ratings)

You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; the analytic sites function as a counterbalance to the rest which are based more on personal opinions. All the averages use the Olympic method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to remove potential bias. The ‘6 year average’ is the season ending average with each preceding year’s value decreasing by 10% (2017=100%, 2012=50%).

2022 Power Ranking Average

Place Team Wk 33 Wk 34 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2022 Avg 5-yr avg
Place Team Wk 33 Wk 34 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2022 Avg 5-yr avg
21 Atlanta United FC 20.67 20.86 10 25 4.46 17.6 11.0832
5 Austin FC 5.22 6.14 5 17 4.02 7.2 12.992
23 Charlotte FC 20 21.71 16 27 3.61 22.8 14.784
24 Chicago Fire 23.56 22.71 17 24 2.17 20.7 19.678
10 Cincinnati (FC) 11.11 9.57 7 13 1.87 17.5 19.634
18 Colorado Rapids 20.44 18.71 14 22 2.65 16 15.666
12 Columbus Crew SC 8.89 12.71 4 16 3.76 11.3 10.859
28 D.C. United 28 28 28 28 0 24.5 17.176
6 Dallas (FC) 5.89 6.29 4 16 3.82 8.5 11.1342
26 Houston Dynamo 24.56 25.43 24 27 0.88 22 17.22
15 Inter Miami CF 14 15.14 11 21 3.91 21.3 17.622
9 L.A. Galaxy 10.33 8.57 6 12 2.06 9.8 11.408
2 Los Angeles FC 1.56 1.71 1 3 0.67 2 5.5268
11 Minnesota United FC 15.22 12.14 7 17 2.93 11 12.076
3 Montreal (CF) 3 3 2 12 3.06 10.2 14.52
7 Nashville SC 8.11 6.86 4 10 1.96 8.7 11.874
17 New England Revolution 20 18.29 6 23 4.77 14.7 12.164
4 New York City FC 6.33 4.86 3 10 2.11 6.6 6.5156
8 New York RB 7.11 7.29 5 10 1.58 6.4 9.5228
16 Orlando City SC 14.11 15.86 13 23 3.87 13.5 13.312
1 Philadelphia Union 1.44 1.29 1 2 0.5 2.5 6.902
14 Portland Timbers 11.67 14 7 16 2.79 13.8 11.134
13 Real Salt Lake 14.44 13 9 15 1.79 10.8 13.31
25 San Jose Earthquakes 25 24.43 19 26 2.65 23.8 18.838
19 Seattle Sounders FC 19.44 19.43 12 23 3.91 13.9 7.384
22 Sporting Kansas City 20.22 21.14 16 26 3.14 23.5 10.9248
27 Toronto FC 25.67 26.43 20 27 2.54 21.7 14.724
20 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 18.56 20.14 16 25 3.49 22.6 19.364

Closest to average

Site # Exact 1 Off 2 Off 3 Off 4 Off 5 Off 6+ Off
Site # Exact 1 Off 2 Off 3 Off 4 Off 5 Off 6+ Off
Jeff Sagarin 4 10 1 3 4 0 1
FiveThirtyEight 11 7 2 2 1 0 0
Massey 4 3 4 5 1 2 4
ESPN 7 9 4 0 1 2 0
Soccer America 11 6 1 4 0 1 0
MLS 11 7 2 1 1 1 0
MLS Fantasy Boss 6 11 3 2 1 0 0
Reddit /r/mls 10 8 4 0 1 0 0
The Mane Land 6 8 6 1 1 0 1
Philly Soc Page 7 7 5 2 2 0 0
MLS Multiplex NA
Dallas News NA
Pro Soccer USA NA
Who Scored 4 3 4 5 1 2 4
Stumptown Footy NA
Soccer By Ives NA
Couch Metrics 7 10 3 2 0 1 0
  • Most Accurate for the week: Goal.com with 9 exactly on average.
  • Least Accurate for the week: Reddit Monkey PR with 10 off by 5+

2018 Power Ranking Site Bias

Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG Team / Site
Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG Team / Site
Atlanta United 2.258 -0.108 -0.998 -0.078 -0.568 0.332 -0.318 -0.568 -0.198 2.072 -0.198 0.012 -0.158 -0.698 2.282 -1.218 2.258 Atlanta United
Chicago Fire 17.654 -1.864 0.696 0.166 0.846 0.406 1.026 -0.484 0.586 -0.414 -0.074 0.176 0.046 1.586 0.556 0.606 17.654 Chicago Fire
Colorado Rapids 20.757 -0.847 0.303 -0.317 0.713 -1.567 0.333 0.003 0.423 0.543 -0.047 -1.427 -1.257 -0.517 0.203 0.373 20.757 Colorado Rapids
Columbus Crew 7.794 -0.294 0.206 0.676 -1.294 0.116 -0.504 -0.314 -1.234 -0.584 -0.184 0.006 1.936 0.166 5.456 1.466 7.794 Columbus Crew
D.C. United 17.043 -2.663 0.667 -2.303 0.957 0.617 -0.193 1.547 0.247 0.317 -0.883 0.957 1.857 -0.643 0.497 1.437 17.043 D.C. United
FC Dallas 7.068 0.522 -0.478 -0.778 1.342 -0.818 -0.098 -0.068 0.022 1.052 1.222 -0.168 0.402 -0.988 -1.608 -3.718 7.068 FC Dallas
Houston Dynamo 12.253 -2.043 1.157 1.867 -0.533 -0.693 0.217 0.467 -0.253 -1.403 2.457 0.177 0.017 1.587 -2.253 1.047 12.253 Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles FC 5.945 2.315 -0.125 -1.505 0.055 -0.285 0.235 -0.355 -0.155 0.815 -2.335 0.255 0.425 0.535 -2.085 -0.685 5.945 Los Angeles FC
L.A. Galaxy 12.029 1.321 -0.819 -0.649 -0.029 -1.059 -0.789 4.381 -0.819 -0.849 4.551 0.471 -1.129 -0.269 -0.779 -1.419 12.029 L.A. Galaxy
Minnesota United 18.385 1.525 1.145 0.465 -1.005 -0.545 0.325 1.615 -0.945 1.135 0.775 -0.785 -1.055 -0.425 1.475 -1.515 18.385 Minnesota United
Montreal Impact 16.1 0.25 0.75 -0.45 0.18 0.06 -1.04 1.45 0.05 -1.58 0.51 0.93 -0.8 -1.78 -0.67 0.38 16.1 Montreal Impact
N.E. Revolution 13.431 -1.431 0.629 -0.871 0.909 -1.741 1.159 -0.121 0.809 1.089 -0.491 -0.361 -0.831 0.529 -1.141 -0.521 13.431 N.E. Revolution
New York FC 4.348 -1.138 -0.998 -0.228 0.492 0.372 1.182 -1.108 0.062 0.502 0.842 0.982 -0.578 1.452 0.192 0.002 4.348 New York FC
New York RB 3.259 -0.639 -0.199 0.771 -0.449 1.051 -0.319 -0.599 -0.169 -0.259 -0.159 -0.229 -0.659 -0.379 -1.439 -0.169 3.259 New York RB
Orlando SC 17.946 1.904 0.874 1.644 -0.816 -0.356 -0.296 2.504 -0.536 -0.526 0.444 -1.476 0.184 -1.666 0.014 -0.816 17.946 Orlando SC
Philadelphia Union 13.69 1.16 -0.6 0.52 0.34 -0.16 -0.84 0.59 -0.75 0.4 -0.56 0.58 2.04 -0.05 0.24 0.57 13.69 Philadelphia Union
Portland Timbers 9.195 -0.875 -1.845 -0.635 0.555 -0.505 0.065 -0.785 1.715 -0.135 -1.805 0.435 -1.865 0.925 -0.055 -2.715 9.195 Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake 13.448 3.112 -0.828 -1.038 0.022 -0.638 0.372 -0.068 0.142 3.002 -1.128 -0.518 1.722 0.152 -2.158 -1.798 13.448 Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes 20.143 -0.553 2.147 0.507 -0.203 0.107 0.037 0.577 -0.583 -0.993 1.337 -0.173 0.887 0.817 -5.893 2.597 20.143 San Jose Earthquakes
Seattle Sounders 12.061 -0.181 -1.971 -0.771 0.069 2.319 0.259 -4.371 1.349 -1.761 -2.771 2.139 -0.891 0.539 2.689 1.419 12.061 Seattle Sounders
Sporting Kansas City 5.142 -0.382 -0.492 0.858 0.518 0.828 -0.262 0.648 -0.262 -0.472 2.018 -0.772 -0.112 -0.702 -3.782 0.338 5.142 Sporting Kansas City
Toronto FC 12.716 -0.926 -0.536 2.524 -0.156 3.784 -1.566 -4.236 1.464 -1.836 -3.776 -0.286 -0.446 -0.356 3.494 4.984 12.716 Toronto FC
Vancouver Whitecaps 13.016 2.134 1.924 -0.016 -1.546 -1.296 1.334 -0.426 -1.106 0.194 0.594 -0.816 0.584 0.464 4.914 -0.316 13.016 Vancouver Whitecaps
Most Bias VS (+) 3.112 2.147 2.524 1.342 3.784 1.334 4.381 1.715 3.002 4.551 2.139 2.04 1.587 5.456 4.984 (+) Most Bias VS
Most Bias FOR (-) -2.663 -1.971 -2.303 -1.546 -1.741 -1.566 -4.371 -1.234 -1.836 -3.776 -1.476 -1.865 -1.78 -5.893 -3.718 (-) Most Bias FOR
  • Most season bias For: Massey with Montreal Impact off by 9.97, but as that site only has 1 week’s ratings it is skewed. In On It with LA Galaxy ranked 6.74 better than avg would be next.
  • Most season bias Against: Reddit Monkey PR with Seattle Sounders 6.71 worse than average.
  • Least season bias For: Both Jeff Sagarin and Soccer By Ives with Toronto FC 0.021 better than avg.
  • Least season bias Against: NBC Sports FC Dallas 0.001 worse than avg.

Site Averages

Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG
Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG
Atlanta United 2.258 2.15 1.26 2.18 1.69 2.59 1.94 1.69 2.06 4.33 2.06 2.27 2.1 1.56 4.54 1.04 2.258
Chicago Fire 17.654 15.79 18.35 17.82 18.5 18.06 18.68 17.17 18.24 17.24 17.58 17.83 17.7 19.24 18.21 18.26 17.654
Colorado Rapids 20.757 19.91 21.06 20.44 21.47 19.19 21.09 20.76 21.18 21.3 20.71 19.33 19.5 20.24 20.96 21.13 20.757
Columbus Crew 7.794 7.5 8 8.47 6.5 7.91 7.29 7.48 6.56 7.21 7.61 7.8 9.73 7.96 13.25 9.26 7.794
D.C. United 17.043 14.38 17.71 14.74 18 17.66 16.85 18.59 17.29 17.36 16.16 18 18.9 16.4 17.54 18.48 17.043
FC Dallas 7.068 7.59 6.59 6.29 8.41 6.25 6.97 7 7.09 8.12 8.29 6.9 7.47 6.08 5.46 3.35 7.068
Houston Dynamo 12.253 10.21 13.41 14.12 11.72 11.56 12.47 12.72 12 10.85 14.71 12.43 12.27 13.84 10 13.3 12.253
Los Angeles FC 5.945 8.26 5.82 4.44 6 5.66 6.18 5.59 5.79 6.76 3.61 6.2 6.37 6.48 3.86 5.26 5.945
L.A. Galaxy 12.029 13.35 11.21 11.38 12 10.97 11.24 16.41 11.21 11.18 16.58 12.5 10.9 11.76 11.25 10.61 12.029
Minnesota United 18.385 19.91 19.53 18.85 17.38 17.84 18.71 20 17.44 19.52 19.16 17.6 17.33 17.96 19.86 16.87 18.385
Montreal Impact 16.1 16.35 16.85 15.65 16.28 16.16 15.06 17.55 16.15 14.52 16.61 17.03 15.3 14.32 15.43 16.48 16.1
N.E. Revolution 13.431 12 14.06 12.56 14.34 11.69 14.59 13.31 14.24 14.52 12.94 13.07 12.6 13.96 12.29 12.91 13.431
New York FC 4.348 3.21 3.35 4.12 4.84 4.72 5.53 3.24 4.41 4.85 5.19 5.33 3.77 5.8 4.54 4.35 4.348
New York RB 3.259 2.62 3.06 4.03 2.81 4.31 2.94 2.66 3.09 3 3.1 3.03 2.6 2.88 1.82 3.09 3.259
Orlando SC 17.946 19.85 18.82 19.59 17.13 17.59 17.65 20.45 17.41 17.42 18.39 16.47 18.13 16.28 17.96 17.13 17.946
Philadelphia Union 13.69 14.85 13.09 14.21 14.03 13.53 12.85 14.28 12.94 14.09 13.13 14.27 15.73 13.64 13.93 14.26 13.69
Portland Timbers 9.195 8.32 7.35 8.56 9.75 8.69 9.26 8.41 10.91 9.06 7.39 9.63 7.33 10.12 9.14 6.48 9.195
Real Salt Lake 13.448 16.56 12.62 12.41 13.47 12.81 13.82 13.38 13.59 16.45 12.32 12.93 15.17 13.6 11.29 11.65 13.448
San Jose Earthquakes 20.143 19.59 22.29 20.65 19.94 20.25 20.18 20.72 19.56 19.15 21.48 19.97 21.03 20.96 14.25 22.74 20.143
Seattle Sounders 12.061 11.88 10.09 11.29 12.13 14.38 12.32 7.69 13.41 10.3 9.29 14.2 11.17 12.6 14.75 13.48 12.061
Sporting Kansas City 5.142 4.76 4.65 6 5.66 5.97 4.88 5.79 4.88 4.67 7.16 4.37 5.03 4.44 1.36 5.48 5.142
Toronto FC 12.716 11.79 12.18 15.24 12.56 16.5 11.15 8.48 14.18 10.88 8.94 12.43 12.27 12.36 16.21 17.7 12.716
Vancouver Whitecaps 13.016 15.15 14.94 13 11.47 11.72 14.35 12.59 11.91 13.21 13.61 12.2 13.6 13.48 17.93 12.7 13.016

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