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"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14
Only 12 of 20 sites published this week, perhaps due to the looming Gold Cup break. This edition of the P-R.Avg. does NOT include games from July 4-6th. Lastly, MLS Multiplex is on last notice for missing 5 consecutive weeks; they’ll be dropped from the list if they miss the next one.
Now on to the rankings. As always, if you come across a site that I’ve not included please send me their link!
Sites Used
- Jeff Sagarin’s MLS Rankings (sagarin.com/sports/soccer)
- In On It (inonit.com/mls-playoffs-odds/power-rankings)
- Five Thirty Eight (projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls)
- Sports Illustrated (SI.com/planet-futbol) - No ranking wk 18
- ESPN (ESPNFC.com/major-league-soccer/19/index)
- Soccer America (socceramerica.com)
- MLS Soccer (mlssoccer.com/series/power-rankings)
- MLS Multiplex (mlsmultiplex.com) - No ranking wk 14-18
- Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com) - No ranking wk 18
- Reddit MLS (reddit/r/MLS)
- MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
- The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
- Once A Metro (onceametro.com)
- Goal (goal.com/en-us) - No ranking wk 18
- NBC Sports (soccer.nbcsports.com/tag/major-league-soccer) - No ranking wk 17-18
- MLS Aces (mlsaces.sportsblog.com) - No ranking wk 17-18
- Stumptown Footy (stumptownfooty.com/)
- Blue Testament (thebluetestament.com/power-rankings) - No ranking wk 15-18
- Reddit Monkey Power Ranking (reddit/r/MLS) - No ranking wk 17-18
- Massey Rankings (masseyratings.com/mls/ratings)
You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; the analytic sites function as a counterbalance to the rest which are based more on personal opinions. All the averages use the Olympic method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to remove potential bias. The ‘6 year average’ is the season ending average with each preceding year’s value decreasing by 10% (2017=100%, 2012=50%).
2022 Power Ranking Average
| Place | Team | Wk 33 | Wk 34 | Wk Best | Wk Worst | Std. Dev | 2022 Avg | 5-yr avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Place | Team | Wk 33 | Wk 34 | Wk Best | Wk Worst | Std. Dev | 2022 Avg | 5-yr avg |
| 21 | Atlanta United FC | 20.67 | 20.86 | 10 | 25 | 4.46 | 17.6 | 11.0832 |
| 5 | Austin FC | 5.22 | 6.14 | 5 | 17 | 4.02 | 7.2 | 12.992 |
| 23 | Charlotte FC | 20 | 21.71 | 16 | 27 | 3.61 | 22.8 | 14.784 |
| 24 | Chicago Fire | 23.56 | 22.71 | 17 | 24 | 2.17 | 20.7 | 19.678 |
| 10 | Cincinnati (FC) | 11.11 | 9.57 | 7 | 13 | 1.87 | 17.5 | 19.634 |
| 18 | Colorado Rapids | 20.44 | 18.71 | 14 | 22 | 2.65 | 16 | 15.666 |
| 12 | Columbus Crew SC | 8.89 | 12.71 | 4 | 16 | 3.76 | 11.3 | 10.859 |
| 28 | D.C. United | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 24.5 | 17.176 |
| 6 | Dallas (FC) | 5.89 | 6.29 | 4 | 16 | 3.82 | 8.5 | 11.1342 |
| 26 | Houston Dynamo | 24.56 | 25.43 | 24 | 27 | 0.88 | 22 | 17.22 |
| 15 | Inter Miami CF | 14 | 15.14 | 11 | 21 | 3.91 | 21.3 | 17.622 |
| 9 | L.A. Galaxy | 10.33 | 8.57 | 6 | 12 | 2.06 | 9.8 | 11.408 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FC | 1.56 | 1.71 | 1 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 5.5268 |
| 11 | Minnesota United FC | 15.22 | 12.14 | 7 | 17 | 2.93 | 11 | 12.076 |
| 3 | Montreal (CF) | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 3.06 | 10.2 | 14.52 |
| 7 | Nashville SC | 8.11 | 6.86 | 4 | 10 | 1.96 | 8.7 | 11.874 |
| 17 | New England Revolution | 20 | 18.29 | 6 | 23 | 4.77 | 14.7 | 12.164 |
| 4 | New York City FC | 6.33 | 4.86 | 3 | 10 | 2.11 | 6.6 | 6.5156 |
| 8 | New York RB | 7.11 | 7.29 | 5 | 10 | 1.58 | 6.4 | 9.5228 |
| 16 | Orlando City SC | 14.11 | 15.86 | 13 | 23 | 3.87 | 13.5 | 13.312 |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 1.44 | 1.29 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 6.902 |
| 14 | Portland Timbers | 11.67 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 2.79 | 13.8 | 11.134 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 14.44 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 1.79 | 10.8 | 13.31 |
| 25 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 24.43 | 19 | 26 | 2.65 | 23.8 | 18.838 |
| 19 | Seattle Sounders FC | 19.44 | 19.43 | 12 | 23 | 3.91 | 13.9 | 7.384 |
| 22 | Sporting Kansas City | 20.22 | 21.14 | 16 | 26 | 3.14 | 23.5 | 10.9248 |
| 27 | Toronto FC | 25.67 | 26.43 | 20 | 27 | 2.54 | 21.7 | 14.724 |
| 20 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 18.56 | 20.14 | 16 | 25 | 3.49 | 22.6 | 19.364 |
- Highest Standard Deviation: Orlando City SC 4.08
- Lowest Standard Deviation: Real Salt Lake 0.0
- Biggest Rise: Montreal Impact, San Jose Earthquakes up 6
- Biggest Fall: Vancouver Whitecaps down 5
Closest to average
| Site | # Exact | 1 Off | 2 Off | 3 Off | 4 Off | 5 Off | 6+ Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Site | # Exact | 1 Off | 2 Off | 3 Off | 4 Off | 5 Off | 6+ Off |
| Jeff Sagarin | 4 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| FiveThirtyEight | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Massey | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| ESPN | 7 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Soccer America | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| MLS | 11 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| MLS Fantasy Boss | 6 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Reddit /r/mls | 10 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| The Mane Land | 6 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Philly Soc Page | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| MLS Multiplex | NA | ||||||
| Dallas News | NA | ||||||
| Pro Soccer USA | NA | ||||||
| Who Scored | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Stumptown Footy | NA | ||||||
| Soccer By Ives | NA | ||||||
| Couch Metrics | 7 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
- Most Accurate for the week: MLS with 14 exactly on average.
- Least Accurate for the week: Once A Metro with 7 off by 5+
2018 Power Ranking Site Bias
| Team / Site | AVG | Jeff Sagarin | Five-Thirty-Eight | Massey | ESPN | Soc. Amer | MLS | MLS Fant. Boss | Reddit /r/mls | Mane Land | Philly Soc. Page | MLS Multiplex | Dallas News | Pro Soc. USA | Who Scored | Couch Metrics | AVG | Team / Site |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team / Site | AVG | Jeff Sagarin | Five-Thirty-Eight | Massey | ESPN | Soc. Amer | MLS | MLS Fant. Boss | Reddit /r/mls | Mane Land | Philly Soc. Page | MLS Multiplex | Dallas News | Pro Soc. USA | Who Scored | Couch Metrics | AVG | Team / Site |
| Atlanta United | 2.258 | -0.108 | -0.998 | -0.078 | -0.568 | 0.332 | -0.318 | -0.568 | -0.198 | 2.072 | -0.198 | 0.012 | -0.158 | -0.698 | 2.282 | -1.218 | 2.258 | Atlanta United |
| Chicago Fire | 17.654 | -1.864 | 0.696 | 0.166 | 0.846 | 0.406 | 1.026 | -0.484 | 0.586 | -0.414 | -0.074 | 0.176 | 0.046 | 1.586 | 0.556 | 0.606 | 17.654 | Chicago Fire |
| Colorado Rapids | 20.757 | -0.847 | 0.303 | -0.317 | 0.713 | -1.567 | 0.333 | 0.003 | 0.423 | 0.543 | -0.047 | -1.427 | -1.257 | -0.517 | 0.203 | 0.373 | 20.757 | Colorado Rapids |
| Columbus Crew | 7.794 | -0.294 | 0.206 | 0.676 | -1.294 | 0.116 | -0.504 | -0.314 | -1.234 | -0.584 | -0.184 | 0.006 | 1.936 | 0.166 | 5.456 | 1.466 | 7.794 | Columbus Crew |
| D.C. United | 17.043 | -2.663 | 0.667 | -2.303 | 0.957 | 0.617 | -0.193 | 1.547 | 0.247 | 0.317 | -0.883 | 0.957 | 1.857 | -0.643 | 0.497 | 1.437 | 17.043 | D.C. United |
| FC Dallas | 7.068 | 0.522 | -0.478 | -0.778 | 1.342 | -0.818 | -0.098 | -0.068 | 0.022 | 1.052 | 1.222 | -0.168 | 0.402 | -0.988 | -1.608 | -3.718 | 7.068 | FC Dallas |
| Houston Dynamo | 12.253 | -2.043 | 1.157 | 1.867 | -0.533 | -0.693 | 0.217 | 0.467 | -0.253 | -1.403 | 2.457 | 0.177 | 0.017 | 1.587 | -2.253 | 1.047 | 12.253 | Houston Dynamo |
| Los Angeles FC | 5.945 | 2.315 | -0.125 | -1.505 | 0.055 | -0.285 | 0.235 | -0.355 | -0.155 | 0.815 | -2.335 | 0.255 | 0.425 | 0.535 | -2.085 | -0.685 | 5.945 | Los Angeles FC |
| L.A. Galaxy | 12.029 | 1.321 | -0.819 | -0.649 | -0.029 | -1.059 | -0.789 | 4.381 | -0.819 | -0.849 | 4.551 | 0.471 | -1.129 | -0.269 | -0.779 | -1.419 | 12.029 | L.A. Galaxy |
| Minnesota United | 18.385 | 1.525 | 1.145 | 0.465 | -1.005 | -0.545 | 0.325 | 1.615 | -0.945 | 1.135 | 0.775 | -0.785 | -1.055 | -0.425 | 1.475 | -1.515 | 18.385 | Minnesota United |
| Montreal Impact | 16.1 | 0.25 | 0.75 | -0.45 | 0.18 | 0.06 | -1.04 | 1.45 | 0.05 | -1.58 | 0.51 | 0.93 | -0.8 | -1.78 | -0.67 | 0.38 | 16.1 | Montreal Impact |
| N.E. Revolution | 13.431 | -1.431 | 0.629 | -0.871 | 0.909 | -1.741 | 1.159 | -0.121 | 0.809 | 1.089 | -0.491 | -0.361 | -0.831 | 0.529 | -1.141 | -0.521 | 13.431 | N.E. Revolution |
| New York FC | 4.348 | -1.138 | -0.998 | -0.228 | 0.492 | 0.372 | 1.182 | -1.108 | 0.062 | 0.502 | 0.842 | 0.982 | -0.578 | 1.452 | 0.192 | 0.002 | 4.348 | New York FC |
| New York RB | 3.259 | -0.639 | -0.199 | 0.771 | -0.449 | 1.051 | -0.319 | -0.599 | -0.169 | -0.259 | -0.159 | -0.229 | -0.659 | -0.379 | -1.439 | -0.169 | 3.259 | New York RB |
| Orlando SC | 17.946 | 1.904 | 0.874 | 1.644 | -0.816 | -0.356 | -0.296 | 2.504 | -0.536 | -0.526 | 0.444 | -1.476 | 0.184 | -1.666 | 0.014 | -0.816 | 17.946 | Orlando SC |
| Philadelphia Union | 13.69 | 1.16 | -0.6 | 0.52 | 0.34 | -0.16 | -0.84 | 0.59 | -0.75 | 0.4 | -0.56 | 0.58 | 2.04 | -0.05 | 0.24 | 0.57 | 13.69 | Philadelphia Union |
| Portland Timbers | 9.195 | -0.875 | -1.845 | -0.635 | 0.555 | -0.505 | 0.065 | -0.785 | 1.715 | -0.135 | -1.805 | 0.435 | -1.865 | 0.925 | -0.055 | -2.715 | 9.195 | Portland Timbers |
| Real Salt Lake | 13.448 | 3.112 | -0.828 | -1.038 | 0.022 | -0.638 | 0.372 | -0.068 | 0.142 | 3.002 | -1.128 | -0.518 | 1.722 | 0.152 | -2.158 | -1.798 | 13.448 | Real Salt Lake |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 20.143 | -0.553 | 2.147 | 0.507 | -0.203 | 0.107 | 0.037 | 0.577 | -0.583 | -0.993 | 1.337 | -0.173 | 0.887 | 0.817 | -5.893 | 2.597 | 20.143 | San Jose Earthquakes |
| Seattle Sounders | 12.061 | -0.181 | -1.971 | -0.771 | 0.069 | 2.319 | 0.259 | -4.371 | 1.349 | -1.761 | -2.771 | 2.139 | -0.891 | 0.539 | 2.689 | 1.419 | 12.061 | Seattle Sounders |
| Sporting Kansas City | 5.142 | -0.382 | -0.492 | 0.858 | 0.518 | 0.828 | -0.262 | 0.648 | -0.262 | -0.472 | 2.018 | -0.772 | -0.112 | -0.702 | -3.782 | 0.338 | 5.142 | Sporting Kansas City |
| Toronto FC | 12.716 | -0.926 | -0.536 | 2.524 | -0.156 | 3.784 | -1.566 | -4.236 | 1.464 | -1.836 | -3.776 | -0.286 | -0.446 | -0.356 | 3.494 | 4.984 | 12.716 | Toronto FC |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 13.016 | 2.134 | 1.924 | -0.016 | -1.546 | -1.296 | 1.334 | -0.426 | -1.106 | 0.194 | 0.594 | -0.816 | 0.584 | 0.464 | 4.914 | -0.316 | 13.016 | Vancouver Whitecaps |
| Most Bias VS | (+) | 3.112 | 2.147 | 2.524 | 1.342 | 3.784 | 1.334 | 4.381 | 1.715 | 3.002 | 4.551 | 2.139 | 2.04 | 1.587 | 5.456 | 4.984 | (+) | Most Bias VS |
| Most Bias FOR | (-) | -2.663 | -1.971 | -2.303 | -1.546 | -1.741 | -1.566 | -4.371 | -1.234 | -1.836 | -3.776 | -1.476 | -1.865 | -1.78 | -5.893 | -3.718 | (-) | Most Bias FOR |
- Most season bias For: Massey with Chicago Fire off by 7.94, but as that site only has 3 week’s ratings it is skewed. In On It with LA Galaxy ranked 5.33 better than avg would be next.
- Most season bias Against: Reddit Monkey Power Rankings with Seattle Sounders 7.11 worse than average.
- Least season bias For: Soccer By Ives with Portland Timbers 0.014 better than avg.
- Least season bias Against: MLS with Atlanta United 0.012 worse than avg.
Site Averages
| Team / Site | AVG | Jeff Sagarin | Five-Thirty-Eight | Massey | ESPN | Soc. Amer | MLS | MLS Fant. Boss | Reddit /r/mls | Mane Land | Philly Soc. Page | MLS Multiplex | Dallas News | Pro Soc. USA | Who Scored | Couch Metrics | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team / Site | AVG | Jeff Sagarin | Five-Thirty-Eight | Massey | ESPN | Soc. Amer | MLS | MLS Fant. Boss | Reddit /r/mls | Mane Land | Philly Soc. Page | MLS Multiplex | Dallas News | Pro Soc. USA | Who Scored | Couch Metrics | AVG |
| Atlanta United | 2.258 | 2.15 | 1.26 | 2.18 | 1.69 | 2.59 | 1.94 | 1.69 | 2.06 | 4.33 | 2.06 | 2.27 | 2.1 | 1.56 | 4.54 | 1.04 | 2.258 |
| Chicago Fire | 17.654 | 15.79 | 18.35 | 17.82 | 18.5 | 18.06 | 18.68 | 17.17 | 18.24 | 17.24 | 17.58 | 17.83 | 17.7 | 19.24 | 18.21 | 18.26 | 17.654 |
| Colorado Rapids | 20.757 | 19.91 | 21.06 | 20.44 | 21.47 | 19.19 | 21.09 | 20.76 | 21.18 | 21.3 | 20.71 | 19.33 | 19.5 | 20.24 | 20.96 | 21.13 | 20.757 |
| Columbus Crew | 7.794 | 7.5 | 8 | 8.47 | 6.5 | 7.91 | 7.29 | 7.48 | 6.56 | 7.21 | 7.61 | 7.8 | 9.73 | 7.96 | 13.25 | 9.26 | 7.794 |
| D.C. United | 17.043 | 14.38 | 17.71 | 14.74 | 18 | 17.66 | 16.85 | 18.59 | 17.29 | 17.36 | 16.16 | 18 | 18.9 | 16.4 | 17.54 | 18.48 | 17.043 |
| FC Dallas | 7.068 | 7.59 | 6.59 | 6.29 | 8.41 | 6.25 | 6.97 | 7 | 7.09 | 8.12 | 8.29 | 6.9 | 7.47 | 6.08 | 5.46 | 3.35 | 7.068 |
| Houston Dynamo | 12.253 | 10.21 | 13.41 | 14.12 | 11.72 | 11.56 | 12.47 | 12.72 | 12 | 10.85 | 14.71 | 12.43 | 12.27 | 13.84 | 10 | 13.3 | 12.253 |
| Los Angeles FC | 5.945 | 8.26 | 5.82 | 4.44 | 6 | 5.66 | 6.18 | 5.59 | 5.79 | 6.76 | 3.61 | 6.2 | 6.37 | 6.48 | 3.86 | 5.26 | 5.945 |
| L.A. Galaxy | 12.029 | 13.35 | 11.21 | 11.38 | 12 | 10.97 | 11.24 | 16.41 | 11.21 | 11.18 | 16.58 | 12.5 | 10.9 | 11.76 | 11.25 | 10.61 | 12.029 |
| Minnesota United | 18.385 | 19.91 | 19.53 | 18.85 | 17.38 | 17.84 | 18.71 | 20 | 17.44 | 19.52 | 19.16 | 17.6 | 17.33 | 17.96 | 19.86 | 16.87 | 18.385 |
| Montreal Impact | 16.1 | 16.35 | 16.85 | 15.65 | 16.28 | 16.16 | 15.06 | 17.55 | 16.15 | 14.52 | 16.61 | 17.03 | 15.3 | 14.32 | 15.43 | 16.48 | 16.1 |
| N.E. Revolution | 13.431 | 12 | 14.06 | 12.56 | 14.34 | 11.69 | 14.59 | 13.31 | 14.24 | 14.52 | 12.94 | 13.07 | 12.6 | 13.96 | 12.29 | 12.91 | 13.431 |
| New York FC | 4.348 | 3.21 | 3.35 | 4.12 | 4.84 | 4.72 | 5.53 | 3.24 | 4.41 | 4.85 | 5.19 | 5.33 | 3.77 | 5.8 | 4.54 | 4.35 | 4.348 |
| New York RB | 3.259 | 2.62 | 3.06 | 4.03 | 2.81 | 4.31 | 2.94 | 2.66 | 3.09 | 3 | 3.1 | 3.03 | 2.6 | 2.88 | 1.82 | 3.09 | 3.259 |
| Orlando SC | 17.946 | 19.85 | 18.82 | 19.59 | 17.13 | 17.59 | 17.65 | 20.45 | 17.41 | 17.42 | 18.39 | 16.47 | 18.13 | 16.28 | 17.96 | 17.13 | 17.946 |
| Philadelphia Union | 13.69 | 14.85 | 13.09 | 14.21 | 14.03 | 13.53 | 12.85 | 14.28 | 12.94 | 14.09 | 13.13 | 14.27 | 15.73 | 13.64 | 13.93 | 14.26 | 13.69 |
| Portland Timbers | 9.195 | 8.32 | 7.35 | 8.56 | 9.75 | 8.69 | 9.26 | 8.41 | 10.91 | 9.06 | 7.39 | 9.63 | 7.33 | 10.12 | 9.14 | 6.48 | 9.195 |
| Real Salt Lake | 13.448 | 16.56 | 12.62 | 12.41 | 13.47 | 12.81 | 13.82 | 13.38 | 13.59 | 16.45 | 12.32 | 12.93 | 15.17 | 13.6 | 11.29 | 11.65 | 13.448 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 20.143 | 19.59 | 22.29 | 20.65 | 19.94 | 20.25 | 20.18 | 20.72 | 19.56 | 19.15 | 21.48 | 19.97 | 21.03 | 20.96 | 14.25 | 22.74 | 20.143 |
| Seattle Sounders | 12.061 | 11.88 | 10.09 | 11.29 | 12.13 | 14.38 | 12.32 | 7.69 | 13.41 | 10.3 | 9.29 | 14.2 | 11.17 | 12.6 | 14.75 | 13.48 | 12.061 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 5.142 | 4.76 | 4.65 | 6 | 5.66 | 5.97 | 4.88 | 5.79 | 4.88 | 4.67 | 7.16 | 4.37 | 5.03 | 4.44 | 1.36 | 5.48 | 5.142 |
| Toronto FC | 12.716 | 11.79 | 12.18 | 15.24 | 12.56 | 16.5 | 11.15 | 8.48 | 14.18 | 10.88 | 8.94 | 12.43 | 12.27 | 12.36 | 16.21 | 17.7 | 12.716 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 13.016 | 15.15 | 14.94 | 13 | 11.47 | 11.72 | 14.35 | 12.59 | 11.91 | 13.21 | 13.61 | 12.2 | 13.6 | 13.48 | 17.93 | 12.7 | 13.016 |