MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 4

15 of 16 sites are in. Red Bulls rise, Loons fall

By Kreg Asay Mar 29, 2018, 4:00pm MDT

Yet another new site added - ProSoccer USA making a total of 15 out of 16 sites publishing for Week 4.

First a reminder of what Power Rankings should be (not that every site does of course...):

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk. 3/11/14

Now on to the rankings. As always, if you come across a site that I’ve not included please send me their link!

Sites Used

Jeff Sagarin’s MLS Rankings (sagarin.com/sports/soccer)
Five Thirty Eight (projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls)
Massey Rankings (masseyratings.com/mls/ratings)
ESPN (ESPNFC.com/major-league-soccer/19/index)
Soccer America (socceramerica.com)
MLS Soccer (mlssoccer.com/series/power-rankings)
MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)
Reddit MLS (reddit/r/MLS)
The Mane Land (themaneland.com)
Philly Soccer Page (phillysoccerpage.net/category/seba-projections/)
MLS Fix (youtube.com/channel/UCOIovJpP95VaFCvsmdhm8ZA)
The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)
MLS Multiplex (mlsmultiplex.com)
Once A Metro (onceametro.com) - No ranking wk 2-4
Dallas News (sportsday.dallasnews.com/tag/soccer)
Pro Soccer USA (prosoccerusa.com/mls)

You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a stable counterbalance to the rest which are based more on personal opinions, and those done by ‘team’ blogs’. There are also included sites that some will argue are really ‘prediction rankings’ - but in reality isn’t that what a Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top).

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

2022 Power Ranking Average

Place	Team	Wk 33	Wk 34	Wk Best	Wk Worst	Std. Dev	2022 Avg	5-yr avg
Place	Team	Wk 33	Wk 34	Wk Best	Wk Worst	Std. Dev	2022 Avg	5-yr avg
21	Atlanta United FC	20.67	20.86	10	25	4.46	17.6	11.0832
5	Austin FC	5.22	6.14	5	17	4.02	7.2	12.992
23	Charlotte FC	20	21.71	16	27	3.61	22.8	14.784
24	Chicago Fire	23.56	22.71	17	24	2.17	20.7	19.678
10	Cincinnati (FC)	11.11	9.57	7	13	1.87	17.5	19.634
18	Colorado Rapids	20.44	18.71	14	22	2.65	16	15.666
12	Columbus Crew SC	8.89	12.71	4	16	3.76	11.3	10.859
28	D.C. United	28	28	28	28	0	24.5	17.176
6	Dallas (FC)	5.89	6.29	4	16	3.82	8.5	11.1342
26	Houston Dynamo	24.56	25.43	24	27	0.88	22	17.22
15	Inter Miami CF	14	15.14	11	21	3.91	21.3	17.622
9	L.A. Galaxy	10.33	8.57	6	12	2.06	9.8	11.408
2	Los Angeles FC	1.56	1.71	1	3	0.67	2	5.5268
11	Minnesota United FC	15.22	12.14	7	17	2.93	11	12.076
3	Montreal (CF)	3	3	2	12	3.06	10.2	14.52
7	Nashville SC	8.11	6.86	4	10	1.96	8.7	11.874
17	New England Revolution	20	18.29	6	23	4.77	14.7	12.164
4	New York City FC	6.33	4.86	3	10	2.11	6.6	6.5156
8	New York RB	7.11	7.29	5	10	1.58	6.4	9.5228
16	Orlando City SC	14.11	15.86	13	23	3.87	13.5	13.312
1	Philadelphia Union	1.44	1.29	1	2	0.5	2.5	6.902
14	Portland Timbers	11.67	14	7	16	2.79	13.8	11.134
13	Real Salt Lake	14.44	13	9	15	1.79	10.8	13.31
25	San Jose Earthquakes	25	24.43	19	26	2.65	23.8	18.838
19	Seattle Sounders FC	19.44	19.43	12	23	3.91	13.9	7.384
22	Sporting Kansas City	20.22	21.14	16	26	3.14	23.5	10.9248
27	Toronto FC	25.67	26.43	20	27	2.54	21.7	14.724
20	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	18.56	20.14	16	25	3.49	22.6	19.364

Highest Standard Deviation: Seattle Sounders at 4.82.
Lowest Standard Deviation: Colorado Rapids at 0.99
Biggest Rise: New York Red Bulls -3
Biggest Fall: Minnesota United +2

Closest to average

Site	# Exact	1 Off	2 Off	3 Off	4 Off	5 Off	6+ Off
Site	# Exact	1 Off	2 Off	3 Off	4 Off	5 Off	6+ Off
Jeff Sagarin	4	10	1	3	4	0	1
FiveThirtyEight	11	7	2	2	1	0	0
Massey	4	3	4	5	1	2	4
ESPN	7	9	4	0	1	2	0
Soccer America	11	6	1	4	0	1	0
MLS	11	7	2	1	1	1	0
MLS Fantasy Boss	6	11	3	2	1	0	0
Reddit /r/mls	10	8	4	0	1	0	0
The Mane Land	6	8	6	1	1	0	1
Philly Soc Page	7	7	5	2	2	0	0
MLS Multiplex	NA
Dallas News	NA
Pro Soccer USA	NA
Who Scored	4	3	4	5	1	2	4
Stumptown Footy	NA
Soccer By Ives	NA
Couch Metrics	7	10	3	2	0	1	0

Best of the week: The Score with 7 exact matches.
Worst of the week: Five Thirty Eight with 8 off by 5+.

Site Bias

This table shows how far each team is from average listed by site. Negatives are better (higher on table), positives are worse (lower on table) than the season average from all sites. The further off a site is for each team may indicate how strongly biased they are.

2018 Power Ranking Site Bias

Team / Site	AVG	Jeff Sagarin	Five-Thirty-Eight	Massey	ESPN	Soc. Amer	MLS	MLS Fant. Boss	Reddit /r/mls	Mane Land	Philly Soc. Page	MLS Multiplex	Dallas News	Pro Soc. USA	Who Scored	Couch Metrics	AVG	Team / Site
Team / Site	AVG	Jeff Sagarin	Five-Thirty-Eight	Massey	ESPN	Soc. Amer	MLS	MLS Fant. Boss	Reddit /r/mls	Mane Land	Philly Soc. Page	MLS Multiplex	Dallas News	Pro Soc. USA	Who Scored	Couch Metrics	AVG	Team / Site
Atlanta United	2.258	-0.108	-0.998	-0.078	-0.568	0.332	-0.318	-0.568	-0.198	2.072	-0.198	0.012	-0.158	-0.698	2.282	-1.218	2.258	Atlanta United
Chicago Fire	17.654	-1.864	0.696	0.166	0.846	0.406	1.026	-0.484	0.586	-0.414	-0.074	0.176	0.046	1.586	0.556	0.606	17.654	Chicago Fire
Colorado Rapids	20.757	-0.847	0.303	-0.317	0.713	-1.567	0.333	0.003	0.423	0.543	-0.047	-1.427	-1.257	-0.517	0.203	0.373	20.757	Colorado Rapids
Columbus Crew	7.794	-0.294	0.206	0.676	-1.294	0.116	-0.504	-0.314	-1.234	-0.584	-0.184	0.006	1.936	0.166	5.456	1.466	7.794	Columbus Crew
D.C. United	17.043	-2.663	0.667	-2.303	0.957	0.617	-0.193	1.547	0.247	0.317	-0.883	0.957	1.857	-0.643	0.497	1.437	17.043	D.C. United
FC Dallas	7.068	0.522	-0.478	-0.778	1.342	-0.818	-0.098	-0.068	0.022	1.052	1.222	-0.168	0.402	-0.988	-1.608	-3.718	7.068	FC Dallas
Houston Dynamo	12.253	-2.043	1.157	1.867	-0.533	-0.693	0.217	0.467	-0.253	-1.403	2.457	0.177	0.017	1.587	-2.253	1.047	12.253	Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles FC	5.945	2.315	-0.125	-1.505	0.055	-0.285	0.235	-0.355	-0.155	0.815	-2.335	0.255	0.425	0.535	-2.085	-0.685	5.945	Los Angeles FC
L.A. Galaxy	12.029	1.321	-0.819	-0.649	-0.029	-1.059	-0.789	4.381	-0.819	-0.849	4.551	0.471	-1.129	-0.269	-0.779	-1.419	12.029	L.A. Galaxy
Minnesota United	18.385	1.525	1.145	0.465	-1.005	-0.545	0.325	1.615	-0.945	1.135	0.775	-0.785	-1.055	-0.425	1.475	-1.515	18.385	Minnesota United
Montreal Impact	16.1	0.25	0.75	-0.45	0.18	0.06	-1.04	1.45	0.05	-1.58	0.51	0.93	-0.8	-1.78	-0.67	0.38	16.1	Montreal Impact
N.E. Revolution	13.431	-1.431	0.629	-0.871	0.909	-1.741	1.159	-0.121	0.809	1.089	-0.491	-0.361	-0.831	0.529	-1.141	-0.521	13.431	N.E. Revolution
New York FC	4.348	-1.138	-0.998	-0.228	0.492	0.372	1.182	-1.108	0.062	0.502	0.842	0.982	-0.578	1.452	0.192	0.002	4.348	New York FC
New York RB	3.259	-0.639	-0.199	0.771	-0.449	1.051	-0.319	-0.599	-0.169	-0.259	-0.159	-0.229	-0.659	-0.379	-1.439	-0.169	3.259	New York RB
Orlando SC	17.946	1.904	0.874	1.644	-0.816	-0.356	-0.296	2.504	-0.536	-0.526	0.444	-1.476	0.184	-1.666	0.014	-0.816	17.946	Orlando SC
Philadelphia Union	13.69	1.16	-0.6	0.52	0.34	-0.16	-0.84	0.59	-0.75	0.4	-0.56	0.58	2.04	-0.05	0.24	0.57	13.69	Philadelphia Union
Portland Timbers	9.195	-0.875	-1.845	-0.635	0.555	-0.505	0.065	-0.785	1.715	-0.135	-1.805	0.435	-1.865	0.925	-0.055	-2.715	9.195	Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake	13.448	3.112	-0.828	-1.038	0.022	-0.638	0.372	-0.068	0.142	3.002	-1.128	-0.518	1.722	0.152	-2.158	-1.798	13.448	Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes	20.143	-0.553	2.147	0.507	-0.203	0.107	0.037	0.577	-0.583	-0.993	1.337	-0.173	0.887	0.817	-5.893	2.597	20.143	San Jose Earthquakes
Seattle Sounders	12.061	-0.181	-1.971	-0.771	0.069	2.319	0.259	-4.371	1.349	-1.761	-2.771	2.139	-0.891	0.539	2.689	1.419	12.061	Seattle Sounders
Sporting Kansas City	5.142	-0.382	-0.492	0.858	0.518	0.828	-0.262	0.648	-0.262	-0.472	2.018	-0.772	-0.112	-0.702	-3.782	0.338	5.142	Sporting Kansas City
Toronto FC	12.716	-0.926	-0.536	2.524	-0.156	3.784	-1.566	-4.236	1.464	-1.836	-3.776	-0.286	-0.446	-0.356	3.494	4.984	12.716	Toronto FC
Vancouver Whitecaps	13.016	2.134	1.924	-0.016	-1.546	-1.296	1.334	-0.426	-1.106	0.194	0.594	-0.816	0.584	0.464	4.914	-0.316	13.016	Vancouver Whitecaps
Most Bias VS	(+)	3.112	2.147	2.524	1.342	3.784	1.334	4.381	1.715	3.002	4.551	2.139	2.04	1.587	5.456	4.984	(+)	Most Bias VS
Most Bias FOR	(-)	-2.663	-1.971	-2.303	-1.546	-1.741	-1.566	-4.371	-1.234	-1.836	-3.776	-1.476	-1.865	-1.78	-5.893	-3.718	(-)	Most Bias FOR

Most season bias For: From ‘active’ lists FiveThirtyEight has Portland Timbers 10.459 better than average.
Most season bias Against: From ‘active’ lists Soccer America has Toronto FC 10.71 worse than average.
Least season bias For: Five Thirty Eight with New England Revolution 0.024 better than average.
Least Season Bias Against: Massey with Colorado Rapids 0.005 worse than average.

Site Averages

Team / Site	AVG	Jeff Sagarin	Five-Thirty-Eight	Massey	ESPN	Soc. Amer	MLS	MLS Fant. Boss	Reddit /r/mls	Mane Land	Philly Soc. Page	MLS Multiplex	Dallas News	Pro Soc. USA	Who Scored	Couch Metrics	AVG
Team / Site	AVG	Jeff Sagarin	Five-Thirty-Eight	Massey	ESPN	Soc. Amer	MLS	MLS Fant. Boss	Reddit /r/mls	Mane Land	Philly Soc. Page	MLS Multiplex	Dallas News	Pro Soc. USA	Who Scored	Couch Metrics	AVG
Atlanta United	2.258	2.15	1.26	2.18	1.69	2.59	1.94	1.69	2.06	4.33	2.06	2.27	2.1	1.56	4.54	1.04	2.258
Chicago Fire	17.654	15.79	18.35	17.82	18.5	18.06	18.68	17.17	18.24	17.24	17.58	17.83	17.7	19.24	18.21	18.26	17.654
Colorado Rapids	20.757	19.91	21.06	20.44	21.47	19.19	21.09	20.76	21.18	21.3	20.71	19.33	19.5	20.24	20.96	21.13	20.757
Columbus Crew	7.794	7.5	8	8.47	6.5	7.91	7.29	7.48	6.56	7.21	7.61	7.8	9.73	7.96	13.25	9.26	7.794
D.C. United	17.043	14.38	17.71	14.74	18	17.66	16.85	18.59	17.29	17.36	16.16	18	18.9	16.4	17.54	18.48	17.043
FC Dallas	7.068	7.59	6.59	6.29	8.41	6.25	6.97	7	7.09	8.12	8.29	6.9	7.47	6.08	5.46	3.35	7.068
Houston Dynamo	12.253	10.21	13.41	14.12	11.72	11.56	12.47	12.72	12	10.85	14.71	12.43	12.27	13.84	10	13.3	12.253
Los Angeles FC	5.945	8.26	5.82	4.44	6	5.66	6.18	5.59	5.79	6.76	3.61	6.2	6.37	6.48	3.86	5.26	5.945
L.A. Galaxy	12.029	13.35	11.21	11.38	12	10.97	11.24	16.41	11.21	11.18	16.58	12.5	10.9	11.76	11.25	10.61	12.029
Minnesota United	18.385	19.91	19.53	18.85	17.38	17.84	18.71	20	17.44	19.52	19.16	17.6	17.33	17.96	19.86	16.87	18.385
Montreal Impact	16.1	16.35	16.85	15.65	16.28	16.16	15.06	17.55	16.15	14.52	16.61	17.03	15.3	14.32	15.43	16.48	16.1
N.E. Revolution	13.431	12	14.06	12.56	14.34	11.69	14.59	13.31	14.24	14.52	12.94	13.07	12.6	13.96	12.29	12.91	13.431
New York FC	4.348	3.21	3.35	4.12	4.84	4.72	5.53	3.24	4.41	4.85	5.19	5.33	3.77	5.8	4.54	4.35	4.348
New York RB	3.259	2.62	3.06	4.03	2.81	4.31	2.94	2.66	3.09	3	3.1	3.03	2.6	2.88	1.82	3.09	3.259
Orlando SC	17.946	19.85	18.82	19.59	17.13	17.59	17.65	20.45	17.41	17.42	18.39	16.47	18.13	16.28	17.96	17.13	17.946
Philadelphia Union	13.69	14.85	13.09	14.21	14.03	13.53	12.85	14.28	12.94	14.09	13.13	14.27	15.73	13.64	13.93	14.26	13.69
Portland Timbers	9.195	8.32	7.35	8.56	9.75	8.69	9.26	8.41	10.91	9.06	7.39	9.63	7.33	10.12	9.14	6.48	9.195
Real Salt Lake	13.448	16.56	12.62	12.41	13.47	12.81	13.82	13.38	13.59	16.45	12.32	12.93	15.17	13.6	11.29	11.65	13.448
San Jose Earthquakes	20.143	19.59	22.29	20.65	19.94	20.25	20.18	20.72	19.56	19.15	21.48	19.97	21.03	20.96	14.25	22.74	20.143
Seattle Sounders	12.061	11.88	10.09	11.29	12.13	14.38	12.32	7.69	13.41	10.3	9.29	14.2	11.17	12.6	14.75	13.48	12.061
Sporting Kansas City	5.142	4.76	4.65	6	5.66	5.97	4.88	5.79	4.88	4.67	7.16	4.37	5.03	4.44	1.36	5.48	5.142
Toronto FC	12.716	11.79	12.18	15.24	12.56	16.5	11.15	8.48	14.18	10.88	8.94	12.43	12.27	12.36	16.21	17.7	12.716
Vancouver Whitecaps	13.016	15.15	14.94	13	11.47	11.72	14.35	12.59	11.91	13.21	13.61	12.2	13.6	13.48	17.93	12.7	13.016

Weighted Season Average 2012-2018

The ‘7 year average’ is the season ending average with each preceding year’s value decreasing by 10% (2017=100%, 2012=50%).

7 Year Weighted Average

Team/Year	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	Wt Avg
Team/Year	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	Wt Avg
Atlanta United	3.6	4.5	5.4	7	8	5.814	5.025	5.62
Chicago Fire	3.164	7.175	9.324	12.397	15.04	7.155	15.116	9.91
Colorado Rapids	5.14	4.94	6.924	12.166	4.2	16.515	20.61	10.07
Columbus Crew	4.68	6.405	5.76	6.125	13.048	10.143	3.635	7.11
D.C. United	2.98	8.62	4.494	4.137	11.128	16.911	20.467	9.82
FC Dallas	5.152	4.29	3.81	3.248	2.184	5.463	13.863	5.43
Houston Dynamo	2.7	3.855	7.662	9.667	13.152	8.424	9.114	7.8
Los Angeles FC	3.88	4.8385	5.8008	7.35	8.4	10.323	7.629	6.89
L.A. Galaxy	3.356	2.575	3.138	3.157	3	14.166	12.019	5.92
Minnesota United	3.6	4.5	5.4	7	8	17.739	17.825	9.15
Montreal Impact	5.596	2.585	10.524	10.542	6.016	13.032	15.886	9.17
N.E. Revolution	5.912	6.26	5.796	6.65	12.36	13.761	15.139	9.41
New York City FC	3.88	4.8385	5.8008	10.829	7.536	3.96	1.859	5.53
New York RB	2.232	3.26	6.03	3.276	6.488	7.515	5.768	4.94
Orlando City SC	3.88	4.8385	5.8008	9.947	10.48	11.718	18.582	9.32
Philadelphia Union	6.076	5.225	7.11	12.649	6.928	14.688	12.455	9.3
Portland Timbers	6.352	2.915	6.984	6.615	7.824	6.57	17.113	7.77
Real Salt Lake	1.48	2.29	2.472	8.701	5.608	15.327	14.491	7.2
San Jose Earthquakes	1.044	6.19	9.12	7.798	8.752	12.762	14.554	8.6
Seattle Sounders	2.028	4.69	1.716	4.249	11	7.101	12.325	6.16
Sporting Kansas City	1.228	2.24	3.384	4.445	7.296	5.022	8.431	4.58
Toronto FC	7.14	8.415	5.382	6.825	4.968	1.917	4.632	5.61
Vancouver Whitecaps	3.58	5.165	4.788	3.563	10.92	11.331	8.294	6.81