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NWSL Power Ranking Avg - Week 2

First of the weekly Power Ranking Averages for NWSL!

After extensive searching I managed to locate enough sites to replace my own rankings with an NWSL version of the Power Ranking Averages! At present there are 7 sites total, 4 of which published for week 2.

Now on to the rankings. As always, if you come across a site that I’ve not included please send me their link!

Sites Used

  • Five Thirty Eight (projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/mls)
  • NWSL (nwslsoccer.com/index.html)
  • Reddit NWSL (reddit/r/NWSL) - No ranking Wk 2.
  • Philly Soccer Page (phillysoccerpage.net/category/seba-projections/) - No ranking Wk 2
  • MLS Multiplex (mlsmultiplex.com)
  • Backline Soccer (backlinesoccer.com)
  • Pro Soccer USA (prosoccerusa.com/nwsl)

You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a stable counterbalance to the rest which are based more on personal opinions, and those done by ‘team’ blogs’. There are also included sites that some will argue are really ‘prediction rankings’ - but in reality isn’t that what a Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top).

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

2021 MLS Power Ranking Averages

Team 2020 Avg 2021 Avg Season High Season Low 5 Year Avg
Team 2020 Avg 2021 Avg Season High Season Low 5 Year Avg
Atlanta United 15.5 12.9 8.4 21.58 8.86
Austin FC * 12.68 20.6 10.25 25.91 13.84
Chicago Fire 18.66 23.3 17.29 26.33 17.13
Colorado Rapids 14.04 7.4 2.67 18 16.13
Columbus Crew 4.71 13.7 4.13 20.8 10.86
D.C. United 20.48 16.1 9.55 25.57 16.03
FC Cincinnati * 22.34 25.2 20.43 27 18.43
FC Dallas 9.94 19.9 13.38 23 10.65
Houston Dynamo 17.46 20.8 14.29 25.22 14.68
Inter Miami * 19.89 22.5 17.25 26.82 15.65
Los Angeles FC * 6.51 11.9 2.71 17.6 7.42
Los Angeles Galaxy 15.67 10.9 4.7 16.6 12.59
Minnesota United 6.86 14.1 8.64 23.7 13.82
Montreal (C.F.) 15.85 15.3 10.73 20 15.37
Nashville SC * 17.82 8.4 3.73 18 12.43
NE. Revolution 12.24 3 1 9.14 12.29
New York City FC 9.15 6.1 2.58 11.86 6.08
New York RB 13.88 14.5 9.5 21.5 9.91
Orlando City 7.92 9.2 3.17 15.91 13.22
Philadelphia Union 13.86 7.5 3.14 12.75 9.67
Portland Timbers 7.53 13.1 7.2 19.36 9.83
Real Salt Lake 15.16 14.3 10.38 23.71 14.55
San Jose Earthquakes 17.05 18.7 7.1 23.42 16.91
Seattle Sounders 4.1 2.2 1 4 6.17
Sporting Kansas City 7.64 4 1.82 11.75 7.33
Toronto FC 4.72 23.1 13.43 27 10.8
Vancouver Whitecaps 21.04 19.2 11.6 25.73 17.36

Closest to average

Site # Exact 1 Off 2 Off 3 Off 4 Off 5 Off 6+ Off
Site # Exact 1 Off 2 Off 3 Off 4 Off 5 Off 6+ Off
Jeff Sagarin 4 10 1 3 4 0 1
FiveThirtyEight 11 7 2 2 1 0 0
Massey 4 3 4 5 1 2 4
ESPN 7 9 4 0 1 2 0
Soccer America 11 6 1 4 0 1 0
MLS 11 7 2 1 1 1 0
MLS Fantasy Boss 6 11 3 2 1 0 0
Reddit /r/mls 10 8 4 0 1 0 0
The Mane Land 6 8 6 1 1 0 1
Philly Soc Page 7 7 5 2 2 0 0
MLS Multiplex NA
Dallas News NA
Pro Soccer USA NA
Who Scored 4 3 4 5 1 2 4
Stumptown Footy NA
Soccer By Ives NA
Couch Metrics 7 10 3 2 0 1 0
  • Best of the week: Backline Soccer with 5 exact matches.
  • Worst of the week: NWSL with 1 off by 4.

Site Bias

This table shows how far each team is from average listed by site. Negatives are better (higher on table), positives are worse (lower on table) than the season average from all sites. The further off a site is for each team may indicate how strongly biased they are.

2018 Power Ranking Site Bias

Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG Team / Site
Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG Team / Site
Atlanta United 2.258 -0.108 -0.998 -0.078 -0.568 0.332 -0.318 -0.568 -0.198 2.072 -0.198 0.012 -0.158 -0.698 2.282 -1.218 2.258 Atlanta United
Chicago Fire 17.654 -1.864 0.696 0.166 0.846 0.406 1.026 -0.484 0.586 -0.414 -0.074 0.176 0.046 1.586 0.556 0.606 17.654 Chicago Fire
Colorado Rapids 20.757 -0.847 0.303 -0.317 0.713 -1.567 0.333 0.003 0.423 0.543 -0.047 -1.427 -1.257 -0.517 0.203 0.373 20.757 Colorado Rapids
Columbus Crew 7.794 -0.294 0.206 0.676 -1.294 0.116 -0.504 -0.314 -1.234 -0.584 -0.184 0.006 1.936 0.166 5.456 1.466 7.794 Columbus Crew
D.C. United 17.043 -2.663 0.667 -2.303 0.957 0.617 -0.193 1.547 0.247 0.317 -0.883 0.957 1.857 -0.643 0.497 1.437 17.043 D.C. United
FC Dallas 7.068 0.522 -0.478 -0.778 1.342 -0.818 -0.098 -0.068 0.022 1.052 1.222 -0.168 0.402 -0.988 -1.608 -3.718 7.068 FC Dallas
Houston Dynamo 12.253 -2.043 1.157 1.867 -0.533 -0.693 0.217 0.467 -0.253 -1.403 2.457 0.177 0.017 1.587 -2.253 1.047 12.253 Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles FC 5.945 2.315 -0.125 -1.505 0.055 -0.285 0.235 -0.355 -0.155 0.815 -2.335 0.255 0.425 0.535 -2.085 -0.685 5.945 Los Angeles FC
L.A. Galaxy 12.029 1.321 -0.819 -0.649 -0.029 -1.059 -0.789 4.381 -0.819 -0.849 4.551 0.471 -1.129 -0.269 -0.779 -1.419 12.029 L.A. Galaxy
Minnesota United 18.385 1.525 1.145 0.465 -1.005 -0.545 0.325 1.615 -0.945 1.135 0.775 -0.785 -1.055 -0.425 1.475 -1.515 18.385 Minnesota United
Montreal Impact 16.1 0.25 0.75 -0.45 0.18 0.06 -1.04 1.45 0.05 -1.58 0.51 0.93 -0.8 -1.78 -0.67 0.38 16.1 Montreal Impact
N.E. Revolution 13.431 -1.431 0.629 -0.871 0.909 -1.741 1.159 -0.121 0.809 1.089 -0.491 -0.361 -0.831 0.529 -1.141 -0.521 13.431 N.E. Revolution
New York FC 4.348 -1.138 -0.998 -0.228 0.492 0.372 1.182 -1.108 0.062 0.502 0.842 0.982 -0.578 1.452 0.192 0.002 4.348 New York FC
New York RB 3.259 -0.639 -0.199 0.771 -0.449 1.051 -0.319 -0.599 -0.169 -0.259 -0.159 -0.229 -0.659 -0.379 -1.439 -0.169 3.259 New York RB
Orlando SC 17.946 1.904 0.874 1.644 -0.816 -0.356 -0.296 2.504 -0.536 -0.526 0.444 -1.476 0.184 -1.666 0.014 -0.816 17.946 Orlando SC
Philadelphia Union 13.69 1.16 -0.6 0.52 0.34 -0.16 -0.84 0.59 -0.75 0.4 -0.56 0.58 2.04 -0.05 0.24 0.57 13.69 Philadelphia Union
Portland Timbers 9.195 -0.875 -1.845 -0.635 0.555 -0.505 0.065 -0.785 1.715 -0.135 -1.805 0.435 -1.865 0.925 -0.055 -2.715 9.195 Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake 13.448 3.112 -0.828 -1.038 0.022 -0.638 0.372 -0.068 0.142 3.002 -1.128 -0.518 1.722 0.152 -2.158 -1.798 13.448 Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes 20.143 -0.553 2.147 0.507 -0.203 0.107 0.037 0.577 -0.583 -0.993 1.337 -0.173 0.887 0.817 -5.893 2.597 20.143 San Jose Earthquakes
Seattle Sounders 12.061 -0.181 -1.971 -0.771 0.069 2.319 0.259 -4.371 1.349 -1.761 -2.771 2.139 -0.891 0.539 2.689 1.419 12.061 Seattle Sounders
Sporting Kansas City 5.142 -0.382 -0.492 0.858 0.518 0.828 -0.262 0.648 -0.262 -0.472 2.018 -0.772 -0.112 -0.702 -3.782 0.338 5.142 Sporting Kansas City
Toronto FC 12.716 -0.926 -0.536 2.524 -0.156 3.784 -1.566 -4.236 1.464 -1.836 -3.776 -0.286 -0.446 -0.356 3.494 4.984 12.716 Toronto FC
Vancouver Whitecaps 13.016 2.134 1.924 -0.016 -1.546 -1.296 1.334 -0.426 -1.106 0.194 0.594 -0.816 0.584 0.464 4.914 -0.316 13.016 Vancouver Whitecaps
Most Bias VS (+) 3.112 2.147 2.524 1.342 3.784 1.334 4.381 1.715 3.002 4.551 2.139 2.04 1.587 5.456 4.984 (+) Most Bias VS
Most Bias FOR (-) -2.663 -1.971 -2.303 -1.546 -1.741 -1.566 -4.371 -1.234 -1.836 -3.776 -1.476 -1.865 -1.78 -5.893 -3.718 (-) Most Bias FOR
  • Most season bias For: Reddit/r/NWSL has Utah Royals 3.375 better than average.
  • Most season bias Against: Philly Soccer Page has Seattle Reign 2.375 worse than average.
  • Least season bias For: Several sites with both Chicago Red Stars and Portland Thorns exactly on average.
  • Least Season Bias Against: As above.

Site Averages

Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG
Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin Five-Thirty-Eight Massey ESPN Soc. Amer MLS MLS Fant. Boss Reddit /r/mls Mane Land Philly Soc. Page MLS Multiplex Dallas News Pro Soc. USA Who Scored Couch Metrics AVG
Atlanta United 2.258 2.15 1.26 2.18 1.69 2.59 1.94 1.69 2.06 4.33 2.06 2.27 2.1 1.56 4.54 1.04 2.258
Chicago Fire 17.654 15.79 18.35 17.82 18.5 18.06 18.68 17.17 18.24 17.24 17.58 17.83 17.7 19.24 18.21 18.26 17.654
Colorado Rapids 20.757 19.91 21.06 20.44 21.47 19.19 21.09 20.76 21.18 21.3 20.71 19.33 19.5 20.24 20.96 21.13 20.757
Columbus Crew 7.794 7.5 8 8.47 6.5 7.91 7.29 7.48 6.56 7.21 7.61 7.8 9.73 7.96 13.25 9.26 7.794
D.C. United 17.043 14.38 17.71 14.74 18 17.66 16.85 18.59 17.29 17.36 16.16 18 18.9 16.4 17.54 18.48 17.043
FC Dallas 7.068 7.59 6.59 6.29 8.41 6.25 6.97 7 7.09 8.12 8.29 6.9 7.47 6.08 5.46 3.35 7.068
Houston Dynamo 12.253 10.21 13.41 14.12 11.72 11.56 12.47 12.72 12 10.85 14.71 12.43 12.27 13.84 10 13.3 12.253
Los Angeles FC 5.945 8.26 5.82 4.44 6 5.66 6.18 5.59 5.79 6.76 3.61 6.2 6.37 6.48 3.86 5.26 5.945
L.A. Galaxy 12.029 13.35 11.21 11.38 12 10.97 11.24 16.41 11.21 11.18 16.58 12.5 10.9 11.76 11.25 10.61 12.029
Minnesota United 18.385 19.91 19.53 18.85 17.38 17.84 18.71 20 17.44 19.52 19.16 17.6 17.33 17.96 19.86 16.87 18.385
Montreal Impact 16.1 16.35 16.85 15.65 16.28 16.16 15.06 17.55 16.15 14.52 16.61 17.03 15.3 14.32 15.43 16.48 16.1
N.E. Revolution 13.431 12 14.06 12.56 14.34 11.69 14.59 13.31 14.24 14.52 12.94 13.07 12.6 13.96 12.29 12.91 13.431
New York FC 4.348 3.21 3.35 4.12 4.84 4.72 5.53 3.24 4.41 4.85 5.19 5.33 3.77 5.8 4.54 4.35 4.348
New York RB 3.259 2.62 3.06 4.03 2.81 4.31 2.94 2.66 3.09 3 3.1 3.03 2.6 2.88 1.82 3.09 3.259
Orlando SC 17.946 19.85 18.82 19.59 17.13 17.59 17.65 20.45 17.41 17.42 18.39 16.47 18.13 16.28 17.96 17.13 17.946
Philadelphia Union 13.69 14.85 13.09 14.21 14.03 13.53 12.85 14.28 12.94 14.09 13.13 14.27 15.73 13.64 13.93 14.26 13.69
Portland Timbers 9.195 8.32 7.35 8.56 9.75 8.69 9.26 8.41 10.91 9.06 7.39 9.63 7.33 10.12 9.14 6.48 9.195
Real Salt Lake 13.448 16.56 12.62 12.41 13.47 12.81 13.82 13.38 13.59 16.45 12.32 12.93 15.17 13.6 11.29 11.65 13.448
San Jose Earthquakes 20.143 19.59 22.29 20.65 19.94 20.25 20.18 20.72 19.56 19.15 21.48 19.97 21.03 20.96 14.25 22.74 20.143
Seattle Sounders 12.061 11.88 10.09 11.29 12.13 14.38 12.32 7.69 13.41 10.3 9.29 14.2 11.17 12.6 14.75 13.48 12.061
Sporting Kansas City 5.142 4.76 4.65 6 5.66 5.97 4.88 5.79 4.88 4.67 7.16 4.37 5.03 4.44 1.36 5.48 5.142
Toronto FC 12.716 11.79 12.18 15.24 12.56 16.5 11.15 8.48 14.18 10.88 8.94 12.43 12.27 12.36 16.21 17.7 12.716
Vancouver Whitecaps 13.016 15.15 14.94 13 11.47 11.72 14.35 12.59 11.91 13.21 13.61 12.2 13.6 13.48 17.93 12.7 13.016