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Two sites missed the deadline making 5 of 7 sites used for this week. Hopefully one more site will be added next week!
Now on to the rankings. As always, if you come across a site that I’ve not included please send me their link!
Sites Used
- Five Thirty Eight (season projected points)
- NWSL
- Reddit NWSL - No ranking wk 4
- Philly Soccer Page
- MLS Multiplex
- Backline Soccer
- Pro Soccer USA - No ranking wk 4
You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a stable counterbalance to the rest which are based more on personal opinions, and those done by ‘team’ blogs’. There are also included sites that some will argue are really ‘prediction rankings’ - but in reality isn’t that what a Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top).
All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.
NWSL Power Ranking Averages
| Wk 16 | Wk 17 | Wk 19 | Team | W16 avg | W17 avg | W19 avg | Best | Worst | St. Dev | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 16 | Wk 17 | Wk 19 | Team | W16 avg | W17 avg | W19 avg | Best | Worst | St. Dev | 2018 |
| 5 | 4 | 4 | Chicago Red Stars | 4.667 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 3 | 4 | 0.45 | 5.198 |
| 7 | 6 | 7 | Houston Dash | 6.667 | 6.167 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7.269 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | North Carolina Courage | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.057 |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | Orlando Pride | 4.333 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5 | 6 | 0.45 | 4.308 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | Portland Thorns | 2.667 | 2.5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0.71 | 3.303 |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | Seattle Reign | 2.333 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2 | 3 | 0.45 | 2.581 |
| 9 | 9 | 9 | Sky Blue FC | 9 | 9 | 8.8 | 8 | 9 | 0.45 | 8.552 |
| 6 | 7 | 6 | Utah Royals | 6.333 | 6.833 | 5.8 | 5 | 6 | 0.45 | 5.154 |
| 8 | 8 | 8 | Washington Spirit | 8 | 8 | 8.2 | 8 | 9 | 0.45 | 7.506 |
- Highest Standard Deviation: Orlando Pride at 1.92
- Lowest Standard Deviation: Houston Dash & North Carolina Courage at 0.45
- Biggest Rise: Orlando Pride, Sky Blue, Washington Spirit -1
- Biggest Fall: Houston Dash, Utah Royals +1
NWSL Ranking sites closest to avg.
| Site | # Exact | 1 Off | 2 Off | 3 Off | 4+ Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Site | # Exact | 1 Off | 2 Off | 3 Off | 4+ Off |
| FiveThirtyEight | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NWSL | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reddit /r/nwsl | NA | ||||
| Philly Soc Page | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MLS Multiplex | NA | ||||
| Backline | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stumptown Footy | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| RSL Soapbox | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Soc. Club Stat | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- Best of the week: MLS Multiplex with 8 exact matches.
- Worst of the week: Philly Soccer Page with 2 off by 3.
Site Bias
This table shows how far each team is from average listed by site. Negatives are better (higher on table), positives are worse (lower on table) than the season average from all sites. The further off a site is for each team may indicate how strongly biased they are.
NWSL Ranking Site Bias
| Team / Site | AVG | 538 | NWSL | Reddit /r/NWSL | Philly | MLS Multiplex | Backline | ST Foot | RSL SB | Soc. Club Stat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team / Site | AVG | 538 | NWSL | Reddit /r/NWSL | Philly | MLS Multiplex | Backline | ST Foot | RSL SB | Soc. Club Stat |
| Chicago Red Stars | 5.198 | 0.112 | -0.378 | -0.278 | 0.332 | -0.998 | 0.252 | 0.582 | 0.392 | 0.182 |
| Houston Dash | 7.269 | 0.231 | -0.449 | 0.421 | 0.381 | 0.031 | 0.641 | -0.829 | -0.679 | -0.389 |
| North Carolina Courage | 1.057 | 0.073 | 0.003 | -0.057 | 0.183 | -0.057 | -0.057 | -0.057 | 0.183 | -0.057 |
| Orlando Pride | 4.308 | -0.678 | 0.512 | -0.228 | -0.658 | -0.108 | 0.692 | -1.198 | 0.452 | -0.808 |
| Portland Thorns | 3.303 | -0.113 | 0.287 | 0.077 | -1.363 | 0.597 | 0.427 | 0.697 | -0.013 | 0.827 |
| Seattle Reign | 2.581 | -0.141 | 0.129 | 0.189 | 1.009 | 0.219 | -0.311 | 0.199 | 0.069 | -0.451 |
| Sky Blue | 8.552 | 0.078 | 0.208 | 0.068 | -0.432 | 0.048 | -0.102 | 0.448 | -0.492 | 0.448 |
| Utah Royals | 5.154 | 0.226 | -0.034 | 0.386 | -0.214 | 0.946 | -0.604 | -0.044 | -0.864 | -0.154 |
| Washington Spirit | 7.506 | 0.304 | -0.326 | -0.656 | 0.674 | -0.606 | -0.866 | 0.274 | 0.554 | 0.494 |
| MAX | 8.552 | 0.304 | 0.512 | 0.421 | 1.009 | 0.946 | 0.692 | 0.697 | 0.554 | 0.827 |
| MIN | 1.057 | -0.678 | -0.449 | -0.656 | -1.363 | -0.998 | -0.866 | -1.198 | -0.864 | -0.808 |
- Most season bias For: Philly Soccer Page has Orlando Pride 2.65 better than average.
- Most season bias Against: Philly Soccer Page has Washington Spirit 2.396 worse than average.
- Least season bias For: Pro Soccer USA with Portland Thorns exactly on average.
- Least Season Bias Against: See least bias above..
NWSL Season avg. by site
| Team / Site | AVG | 538 | NWSL | Reddit /r/NWSL | Philly | MLS Multiplex | Backline | ST Foot | RSL SB | Soc. Club Stat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team / Site | AVG | 538 | NWSL | Reddit /r/NWSL | Philly | MLS Multiplex | Backline | ST Foot | RSL SB | Soc. Club Stat |
| Chicago Red Stars | 5.198 | 5.31 | 4.82 | 4.92 | 5.53 | 4.2 | 5.45 | 5.78 | 5.59 | 5.38 |
| Houston Dash | 7.269 | 7.5 | 6.82 | 7.69 | 7.65 | 7.3 | 7.91 | 6.44 | 6.59 | 6.88 |
| North Carolina Courage | 1.057 | 1.13 | 1.06 | 1 | 1.24 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.24 | 1 |
| Orlando Pride | 4.308 | 3.63 | 4.82 | 4.08 | 3.65 | 4.2 | 5 | 3.11 | 4.76 | 3.5 |
| Portland Thorns | 3.303 | 3.19 | 3.59 | 3.38 | 1.94 | 3.9 | 3.73 | 4 | 3.29 | 4.13 |
| Seattle Reign | 2.581 | 2.44 | 2.71 | 2.77 | 3.59 | 2.8 | 2.27 | 2.78 | 2.65 | 2.13 |
| Sky Blue | 8.552 | 8.63 | 8.76 | 8.62 | 8.12 | 8.6 | 8.45 | 9 | 8.06 | 9 |
| Utah Royals | 5.154 | 5.38 | 5.12 | 5.54 | 4.94 | 6.1 | 4.55 | 5.11 | 4.29 | 5 |
| Washington Spirit | 7.506 | 7.81 | 7.18 | 6.85 | 8.18 | 6.9 | 6.64 | 7.78 | 8.06 | 8 |