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NWSL Power Ranking Averages - Wk 7

Pride and Royals move up, Thorns drop.

One new site added, plus a return of my rankings, bringing the total to 6 of 9 sites published this week. One did publish late again last week so totals were changed slightly, they will likely do the same this week.

Now on to the rankings. As always, if you come across a site that I’ve not included please send me their link!

Sites Used

You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a stable counterbalance to the rest which are based more on personal opinions, and those done by ‘team’ blogs’. There are also included sites that some will argue are really ‘prediction rankings’ - but in reality isn’t that what a Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top).

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

NWSL Power Ranking Averages

Wk 16 Wk 17 Wk 19 Team W16 avg W17 avg W19 avg Best Worst St. Dev 2018
Wk 16 Wk 17 Wk 19 Team W16 avg W17 avg W19 avg Best Worst St. Dev 2018
5 4 4 Chicago Red Stars 4.667 4.5 3.8 3 4 0.45 5.198
7 6 7 Houston Dash 6.667 6.167 7 7 7 0 7.269
1 1 1 North Carolina Courage 1 1 1 1 1 0 1.057
4 4 5 Orlando Pride 4.333 4.5 5.2 5 6 0.45 4.308
3 2 3 Portland Thorns 2.667 2.5 3 2 4 0.71 3.303
2 2 2 Seattle Reign 2.333 2.5 2.2 2 3 0.45 2.581
9 9 9 Sky Blue FC 9 9 8.8 8 9 0.45 8.552
6 7 6 Utah Royals 6.333 6.833 5.8 5 6 0.45 5.154
8 8 8 Washington Spirit 8 8 8.2 8 9 0.45 7.506

NWSL Ranking sites closest to avg.

Site # Exact 1 Off 2 Off 3 Off 4+ Off
Site # Exact 1 Off 2 Off 3 Off 4+ Off
FiveThirtyEight 7 2 0 0 0
NWSL 8 1 0 0 0
Reddit /r/nwsl NA
Philly Soc Page 7 2 0 0 0
MLS Multiplex NA
Backline 5 4 0 0 0
Stumptown Footy 5 4 0 0 0
RSL Soapbox 7 2 0 0 0
Soc. Club Stat 7 2 0 0 0
  • Best of the week: FiveThirtyEight and Backline with 8 exactly on average, and 1 off by 1.
  • Worst of the week: Philly Soccer Page with 2 off by 2.

Site Bias

This table shows how far each team is from average listed by site. Negatives are better (higher on table), positives are worse (lower on table) than the season average from all sites. The further off a site is for each team may indicate how strongly biased they are.

NWSL Ranking Site Bias

Team / Site AVG 538 NWSL Reddit /r/NWSL Philly MLS Multiplex Backline ST Foot RSL SB Soc. Club Stat
Team / Site AVG 538 NWSL Reddit /r/NWSL Philly MLS Multiplex Backline ST Foot RSL SB Soc. Club Stat
Chicago Red Stars 5.198 0.112 -0.378 -0.278 0.332 -0.998 0.252 0.582 0.392 0.182
Houston Dash 7.269 0.231 -0.449 0.421 0.381 0.031 0.641 -0.829 -0.679 -0.389
North Carolina Courage 1.057 0.073 0.003 -0.057 0.183 -0.057 -0.057 -0.057 0.183 -0.057
Orlando Pride 4.308 -0.678 0.512 -0.228 -0.658 -0.108 0.692 -1.198 0.452 -0.808
Portland Thorns 3.303 -0.113 0.287 0.077 -1.363 0.597 0.427 0.697 -0.013 0.827
Seattle Reign 2.581 -0.141 0.129 0.189 1.009 0.219 -0.311 0.199 0.069 -0.451
Sky Blue 8.552 0.078 0.208 0.068 -0.432 0.048 -0.102 0.448 -0.492 0.448
Utah Royals 5.154 0.226 -0.034 0.386 -0.214 0.946 -0.604 -0.044 -0.864 -0.154
Washington Spirit 7.506 0.304 -0.326 -0.656 0.674 -0.606 -0.866 0.274 0.554 0.494
MAX 8.552 0.304 0.512 0.421 1.009 0.946 0.692 0.697 0.554 0.827
MIN 1.057 -0.678 -0.449 -0.656 -1.363 -0.998 -0.866 -1.198 -0.864 -0.808

NWSL Season avg. by site

Team / Site AVG 538 NWSL Reddit /r/NWSL Philly MLS Multiplex Backline ST Foot RSL SB Soc. Club Stat
Team / Site AVG 538 NWSL Reddit /r/NWSL Philly MLS Multiplex Backline ST Foot RSL SB Soc. Club Stat
Chicago Red Stars 5.198 5.31 4.82 4.92 5.53 4.2 5.45 5.78 5.59 5.38
Houston Dash 7.269 7.5 6.82 7.69 7.65 7.3 7.91 6.44 6.59 6.88
North Carolina Courage 1.057 1.13 1.06 1 1.24 1 1 1 1.24 1
Orlando Pride 4.308 3.63 4.82 4.08 3.65 4.2 5 3.11 4.76 3.5
Portland Thorns 3.303 3.19 3.59 3.38 1.94 3.9 3.73 4 3.29 4.13
Seattle Reign 2.581 2.44 2.71 2.77 3.59 2.8 2.27 2.78 2.65 2.13
Sky Blue 8.552 8.63 8.76 8.62 8.12 8.6 8.45 9 8.06 9
Utah Royals 5.154 5.38 5.12 5.54 4.94 6.1 4.55 5.11 4.29 5
Washington Spirit 7.506 7.81 7.18 6.85 8.18 6.9 6.64 7.78 8.06 8

RSL Soapbox Power Rankings

My rankings are a point-based system that rewards or punishes anything outside of ‘normal’. Normal being home team winning, and away team losing, goals scored also play a part. Wins or ties are better for road teams because it is not expected.

RSL Soapbox NWSL Power Ranking

TEAM ~> WEEK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
TEAM ~> WEEK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Chicago Red Stars 1 9 4 5 4 6 7 6 9 7 7 6 6 4 5 5 4
Houston Dash 6 7 6 8 9 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 5 7 6 6 7
North Carolina Courage 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Orlando Pride 6 8 7 6 7 3 3 3 4 3 4 2 7 5 4 4 5
Portland Thorns 6 1 2 2 2 5 5 5 3 5 5 3 2 3 2 2 3
Seattle Reign 1 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 5 4 2 3 3 2
Sky Blue 5 6 8 7 6 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9
Utah Royals 1 2 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 4 3 4 3 6 7 7 6
Washington Spirit 9 5 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8