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Projecting current performance forward to the 2018 USL Playoffs

Can the 2018 Monarchs exceed their 2017-totals of 67 points and 20 wins

By David Cheever

As the regular season champions in the 2017 USL season Real Monarchs SLC reached 67 points and 20 wins in a 32 game season. With the 2018 season, and moving forward into the 2019 season, USL has expanded to a regular season of 34 matches which should allow slightly higher point totals among the league leaders. Are the Monarchs currently on pace to reach these levels? Let’s project current performance forward to the end of the season.

The chart below summarizes the current standings in the USL Western Conference and the end of season totals if the teams continue to perform at the same pace. In other words, if the Monarchs continue to accumulate points at the same rate per match (approximately 2.1 pts per match) in their final 13 matches, they will finish with 71 points and a 9 pt lead over the the 3nd place Phoenix Rising FC. They have won 14 of 21 matches which is exactly 2⁄3 so 2/3 of 34 so their final total would be 23 victories.

2018 USL Western Conference Standings

Position Team Played W L T Pts Pace Matches
Position Team Played W L T Pts Pace Matches
1 Real Monarchs SLC 21 14 5 2 44 71
2 Orange County SC 22 11 6 5 38 59 A
3 Phoenix Rising FC 21 11 5 5 38 62
4 Reno 1868 FC 21 10 4 7 37 60 H
5 Sacramento Republic FC 22 10 5 7 37 57
6 Portland Timbers 2 22 10 9 3 33 51
7 Swope Park Rangers 22 9 7 6 33 51
8 San Antonio FC 20 8 5 7 31 53 H
9 Fresno FC 23 7 7 9 30 44 A
10 Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC 24 8 12 4 28 40 HA
11 Saint Louis FC 20 6 6 8 26 44 H
12 OKC Energy FC 22 6 11 5 23 36 HA
13 Las Vegas Lights FC 20 6 9 5 23 39
14 LA Galaxy II 21 5 11 5 20 32 HA
15 Rio Grande Valley FC 20 3 6 11 20 34 A
16 Seattle Sounders FC 2 19 4 13 2 14 25
17 Tulsa Roughnecks FC 20 1 9 10 13 22 H

In addition if we can assume roughly current performance continues, the 8 Western Conference playoff teams seem to be already established. The current 9th (Fresno FC) and 10th (Colorado Spring Switchbacks FC) place teams are within 3 points of 8th place San Antonio FC, but both of these teams have played a number more games than the other playoff contenders. At the current pace both the teams projected for 7th and 8th place (Portland Timbers 2 and Swope Park Rangers) will finish with 51 points (five more than 8th place in 2017) while the next closest teams (Fresno FC and Saint Louis FC) will finish with 44 points.

In addition, only 3 of the Monarchs remaining 11 matches are against teams currently in the top 8 of the Western Conference. Reno 1868 FC comes to Zions Bank Field next Wednesday, August 8th, and San Antonio FC will be the Labor Day game on Monday, September 3rd. The only road match against a top 8 team will be against Orange County SC on September 19th in Irvine.

The Monarchs still have home and away matches against three teams: Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (currently 10th), OKC Energy FC (currently 12th) and LA Galaxy II (currently 14th). The remaining away matches at at Fresno FC, who they have beaten twice at Herriman in the final match of the season, and Rio Grande Valley FC. The other home matches are with Saint Louis FC, who they managed to barely defeat on the road and bottome dwellers Tulsa Roughnecks FC.

Plan to be with us at Zion Bank Stadium on Wednesday for the key match against Reno 1869 FC, who demolished the Monarchs in Reno earlier this season, and then, if the Monarchs prevail, use the free tickets you will win to return for the Labor Day match with San Antonio FC or the September 12th match with Saint Louis FC.

The stadium is fantastic, the atmosphere family friendly and the Monarchs just continue to win! (fingers crossed).

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