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MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 4

Seattle go back to back for 1st. Where did RSL land after the heartbreak?

Kreg Asay

One site dropped. Apparently US Soccer Players rating was just a one-off shot, so the averages are back to 17 sites. Three sites took the international break off week so only 14 published, one did post last week’s after I did so wk 3 has been updated. As always, if you know of a site I have not used please let me know in the comments and I’ll look into adding it!

Sites Used

You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a stable counterbalance to the rest which are based more on personal opinions, and those done by ‘team’ blogs’. There are also included sites that some will argue are really ‘prediction rankings’ - but in reality isn’t that what a Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top).

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

The 7 year weighted average is the averages that decrease in value over time. Thus 2019 will be worth 100%, 2018 = 90%, 2017 = 80% and so on down. Thus a bad year 4 years ago won’t drag down positive recent years. For expansion teams that don’t have long histories, they are given the overall league average for that year.

2022 Power Ranking Average

Place Team Wk 32 Wk 33 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2022 Avg
Place Team Wk 32 Wk 33 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2022 Avg
23 Atlanta United FC 16.6 20.67 8 26 4.82 17.5
4 Austin FC 5.1 5.22 4 17 3.71 7.3
19 Charlotte FC 22.3 20 15 26 3.33 22.8
24 Chicago Fire 23.7 23.56 14 27 3.32 20.6
11 Cincinnati (FC) 8.7 11.11 7 15 2.55 17.7
22 Colorado Rapids 20.4 20.44 15 23 2.23 15.9
9 Columbus Crew SC 12.2 8.89 4 13 3.28 11.2
28 D.C. United 28 28 28 28 0 24.4
5 Dallas (FC) 6.2 5.89 4 17 3.66 8.6
25 Houston Dynamo 24.9 24.56 22 27 1.29 21.9
13 Inter Miami CF 16.3 14 9 21 4.09 21.5
10 L.A. Galaxy 11.3 10.33 6 14 2.41 9.9
2 Los Angeles FC 2 1.56 1 2 0.52 2
16 Minnesota United FC 13.2 15.22 10 21 2.9 10.9
3 Montreal (CF) 3.4 3 2 13 3.06 10.5
8 Nashville SC 6.4 8.11 4 12 2.43 8.7
19 New England Revolution 20.9 20 6 23 4.65 14.5
6 New York City FC 7.7 6.33 3 19 4.53 6.7
7 New York RB 6.9 7.11 5 11 1.79 6.4
14 Orlando City SC 13.8 14.11 8 21 4.45 13.4
1 Philadelphia Union 1 1.44 1 3 0.69 2.5
12 Portland Timbers 9.6 11.67 6 14 2.73 13.8
15 Real Salt Lake 15.3 14.44 12 17 1.81 10.7
26 San Jose Earthquakes 25.7 25 20 27 2.45 23.8
18 Seattle Sounders FC 17 19.44 11 26 4.58 13.8
21 Sporting Kansas City 20.7 20.22 15 26 4.03 23.6
27 Toronto FC 24.7 25.67 19 27 3.06 21.6
17 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 20.7 18.56 13 26 4.27 22.7

Site Bias

All sites are going to have bias, whether conscious (blogs) or due to analytic programming ( based on past performance for example). This section lets you see the extent that sites are biased for/against teams.

2020 MLS Site Bias

Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin 538 Who Scored ESPN Massey Soc. Amer MLS Sonny Moore Freeborg MLS Multiplex 3rd deg. US Soc. Players AVG Team / Site
Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin 538 Who Scored ESPN Massey Soc. Amer MLS Sonny Moore Freeborg MLS Multiplex 3rd deg. US Soc. Players AVG Team / Site
Atlanta United FC 15.5 -0.5 -0.97 1.57 2.83 1.9 0.28 2.19 -1.87 5.67 1.81 5.64 1.1 15.5 ATL
Chicago Fire 18.66 -0.47 -0.59 -3.66 1.09 1.01 2.9 1.34 4.59 0.26 2.84 3.34 3.94 18.66 CHI
Colorado Rapids 14.04 -0.48 1.83 -5.51 1.04 -0.24 1.74 1.59 4.4 -2.87 3.65 2.25 3.96 14.04 COL
Columbus Crew SC 4.71 4.42 -0.98 0.89 -0.21 0.09 -2.04 -1.08 4.42 1.71 -1.27 1.86 0.29 4.71 CLB
D.C. United 20.48 0.58 3.59 -0.68 0.69 2.32 0.96 3.02 -0.98 2.52 0.21 4.38 1.32 20.48 DCU
FC Cincinnati 22.34 2.72 3.06 1.86 1.99 1.33 -1.45 0.97 1.79 0.41 0.72 -0.91 -0.14 22.34 CIN
FC Dallas 9.94 -1.25 -0.01 -2.94 2.39 0.13 0.62 1.75 -2.94 -0.27 4.44 2.77 5.06 9.94 FCD
Houston Dynamo 17.46 0.79 2.67 0.47 0.29 -2.26 2.21 2.29 -1.77 -0.79 1.79 2.25 -0.06 17.46 HOU
Inter Miami CF 6.51 4.86 -0.02 -0.42 2.36 -0.22 2.55 1.74 -6.89 -2.72 4.24 2.68 2.11 6.51 MIA
Los Angeles FC 15.67 -1.88 -1.98 1.96 2.99 0.89 -0.4 1.24 -2.95 9.07 1.68 1.35 -1.11 15.67 LAFC
L.A. Galaxy 6.86 1.77 -1.67 -4.4 0.83 2.13 -2.34 2.21 0.46 4.33 1.08 -3.38 0.93 6.86 LAG
Minnesota United FC 15.85 -1.11 2.87 -4.13 3.64 -1.53 0.25 2.58 -0.23 2.06 1.08 0.71 1.14 15.85 MUFC
Montreal Impact 12.24 2.65 2.55 -1.25 -0.85 2.82 0.59 1.28 5.09 -1.02 -0.22 -0.56 -0.65 12.24 MTL
Nashville SC 9.15 1.56 1.85 2.18 -0.82 -2.95 3.18 -0.38 0.06 0.43 1.99 2.89 1.38 9.15 NASH
N.E. Revolution 13.88 4.45 1.43 0.36 -2.41 1.76 -0.24 -0.11 3.32 -1.41 -0.8 1.76 -1.84 13.88 NER
New York City FC 7.92 -0.65 0.78 3.52 0.68 -0.68 4.96 -0.15 -1.15 -2.48 1.66 -1.86 -0.95 7.92 NYFC
New York RB 13.88 1.12 0.59 -1.28 -0.46 2.52 1.34 1.18 1.81 1.95 -0.82 6.12 5.32 13.88 NYRB
Orlando City SC 7.92 -0.29 2.35 5.21 -0.92 -2.85 1.64 0.14 1.64 -2.75 -0.11 0.37 1.08 7.92 ORL
Philadelphia Union 3.86 -0.61 -0.86 3.94 0.22 -0.73 0.92 -0.3 -0.8 -1.94 0.77 1.85 1.74 3.86 PHI
Portland Timbers 7.53 -0.97 2.2 8.8 0.64 -3.53 1.03 -1.28 1.72 4.72 -0.9 -4.39 -1.13 7.53 POR
Real Salt Lake 15.16 -1.41 1.04 1.64 3.34 2.91 0.62 0.65 -1.1 1.17 1.47 0.41 1.04 15.16 RSL
San Jose Earthquakes 17.05 0.01 0.28 8.08 0.62 2.82 -0.27 1.08 2.95 2.78 0.2 -1.62 -4.25 17.05 SJE
Seattle Sounders FC 4.1 -0.79 0.9 -0.17 0.23 3.57 0.23 -0.6 -0.97 1.98 0.34 -1.24 -0.1 4.1 SEA
Sporting Kansas City 7.64 3.74 -0.51 -0.17 1.86 1.83 1.25 0.17 4.74 -0.22 -1.51 -0.21 -0.64 7.64 SKC
Toronto FC 4.42 1.46 -1.55 3.05 -0.75 4.45 -0.75 -1.48 2.58 -0.17 -1.79 -2.42 4.18 4.42 TFC
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 21.04 1.59 2.43 2.36 0.04 3.89 1.4 1.27 3.4 -1.12 -1.23 -2.75 -2.64 21.04 VAN
X Team / Site AVG Sagarin 538 Who Scored ESPN Massey Soc. Amer MLS Sonny Moore Freeborg MLS Multiplex 3rd deg. US Soc. Players AVG Team / Site

Site Accuracy

Just a little table to show how far each site deviated from the week’s average.

2019 MLS Bias (for/vs)

Site Most Bias VS Most Bias For Least Bias
Site Most Bias VS Most Bias For Least Bias
Jeff Sagarin SJE SKC VAN
FiveThirtyEight SJE ATL CLB
Who Scored POR DCU NYFC
ESPN POR NER FCD
Massey NYRB POR NER
Soccer America POR HOU CLB
MLS Soccer DCU COL HOU
MLS Fantasy Boss MUFC SKC DCU
Reddit /r/mls RSL NYRB DCU
Dallas News MTL TFC SEA
ProSoccerUSA NYFC COL SJE
Big D Soccer DCU TFC SKC
AJC NYFC MTL CIN
Cincinnati Soccer Talk POR HOU SJE
Freeborg Power Index NYRB POR ORL
In On It MUFC SKC HOU
US Soccer Players ORL NER ATL
  • Most Accurate: Massey with 8 exactly on average.
  • Least Accurate: Big D Soccer with 10 off by 6+ (equaled last week).