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MLS Power Ranking Averages - Week 22

LAFC remain on top, Philly and RSL make a large moves up.

13 of 17 sites updated this week, and some that missed last week managed to get in retroactively, and one ‘dead’ site has returned to life; so last week’s totals and positions have been updated. Los Angeles FC maintain their run in first for the 18th week, and 2nd place changes yet again leaving no one to challenge.

As always, if you know of a site I have not used please let me know in the comments and I’ll look into adding it!

Sites Used

You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a stable counterbalance or ‘control group’ to the rest which are based more on personal opinions, and those done by ‘team’ blogs. There are also sites included that some will argue are ‘prediction rankings’ - but that also is a form of Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top).

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

The 7 year weighted average is the averages that decrease in value over time. Thus 2019 will be worth 100%, 2018 = 90%, 2017 = 80% and so on down. Thus a bad year 4 years ago won’t drag down positive recent years. For expansion teams that don’t have long histories, they are given the overall league average for that year.

2021 MLS Power Ranking Averages

Avg 27 Avg 28&29 Avg 30 Team Best Worst St. Dev 2021 Avg S/High S/Low
Avg 27 Avg 28&29 Avg 30 Team Best Worst St. Dev 2021 Avg S/High S/Low
11.64 11.64 10.2 Atlanta United 6 14 2.54 13.5 8.5 21.58
24.64 24.45 24.8 Austin FC 21 26 1.9 19.8 10.25 25.91
23.91 23.27 24.2 Chicago Fire 16 26 3.35 23.6 17.29 26.33
5.27 6 4.8 Colorado Rapids 4 7 1.15 7.9 3.33 18
18.82 18.82 18.4 Columbus Crew 14 21 2.67 13 4.13 20.8
10.73 10 10.8 D.C. United 8 18 3.46 16.2 9.55 25.57
26.18 26.73 27 FC Cincinnati 25 27 0.76 24.8 20.43 27
20.82 21.64 21.6 FC Dallas 19 22 1.11 19.5 13.38 23
22.36 23.27 23 Houston Dynamo 22 25 1.07 20.2 14.29 25.22
22.18 22.91 22.8 Inter Miami 21 27 2.48 22.4 17.25 26.82
15.64 17 17.6 Los Angeles FC 8 19 3.78 11.4 2.71 17.6
14.82 16.55 16.6 Los Angeles Galaxy 12 21 3.6 10.1 4.7 16.6
9 11.45 14.6 Minnesota United 12 15 1.11 14.5 8.64 23.7
12.27 11.73 11.8 Montreal (C.F.) 10 17 2.29 15.1 10.73 20
3.73 4.45 4.8 Nashville SC 4 8 1.46 9 3.73 18
1.09 1.09 1.2 NE. Revolution 1 2 0.49 3.4 1.09 9.14
7.27 9.09 8.8 New York City FC 7 14 2.69 5.7 2.58 11.86
16.09 13.27 11.6 New York RB 7 17 3.64 15.3 9.58 21.5
15.91 12 12.6 Orlando City 9 19 3.87 8.5 3.17 15.91
7.91 6.64 5.8 Philadelphia Union 4 7 1.11 7.9 3.14 12.75
8.82 7.45 7.2 Portland Timbers 5 12 2.37 13.7 7.2 19.36
14.18 14.91 12.8 Real Salt Lake 8 16 2.51 14.4 10.38 23.71
17.45 19.55 19.4 San Jose Earthquakes 16 21 1.57 18.3 7.1 23.42
2.55 2.09 2 Seattle Sounders 1 3 0.58 2 1 4
3.55 3.09 3 Sporting Kansas City 1 3 0.76 4.3 1.82 11.75
25.73 23.73 24.8 Toronto FC 20 26 2.06 22.7 13.43 27
16.73 15.64 16.6 Vancouver Whitecaps 9 18 3.04 20.5 15.44 25.73

Site Bias

All sites are going to have bias, whether conscious (blogs) or due to analytic calculation (based on past performance). This section lets you see the extent that sites are biased for/against teams.

2020 MLS Site Bias

Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin 538 Who Scored ESPN Massey Soc. Amer MLS Sonny Moore Freeborg MLS Multiplex 3rd deg. US Soc. Players AVG Team / Site
Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin 538 Who Scored ESPN Massey Soc. Amer MLS Sonny Moore Freeborg MLS Multiplex 3rd deg. US Soc. Players AVG Team / Site
Atlanta United FC 15.5 -0.5 -0.97 1.57 2.83 1.9 0.28 2.19 -1.87 5.67 1.81 5.64 1.1 15.5 ATL
Chicago Fire 18.66 -0.47 -0.59 -3.66 1.09 1.01 2.9 1.34 4.59 0.26 2.84 3.34 3.94 18.66 CHI
Colorado Rapids 14.04 -0.48 1.83 -5.51 1.04 -0.24 1.74 1.59 4.4 -2.87 3.65 2.25 3.96 14.04 COL
Columbus Crew SC 4.71 4.42 -0.98 0.89 -0.21 0.09 -2.04 -1.08 4.42 1.71 -1.27 1.86 0.29 4.71 CLB
D.C. United 20.48 0.58 3.59 -0.68 0.69 2.32 0.96 3.02 -0.98 2.52 0.21 4.38 1.32 20.48 DCU
FC Cincinnati 22.34 2.72 3.06 1.86 1.99 1.33 -1.45 0.97 1.79 0.41 0.72 -0.91 -0.14 22.34 CIN
FC Dallas 9.94 -1.25 -0.01 -2.94 2.39 0.13 0.62 1.75 -2.94 -0.27 4.44 2.77 5.06 9.94 FCD
Houston Dynamo 17.46 0.79 2.67 0.47 0.29 -2.26 2.21 2.29 -1.77 -0.79 1.79 2.25 -0.06 17.46 HOU
Inter Miami CF 6.51 4.86 -0.02 -0.42 2.36 -0.22 2.55 1.74 -6.89 -2.72 4.24 2.68 2.11 6.51 MIA
Los Angeles FC 15.67 -1.88 -1.98 1.96 2.99 0.89 -0.4 1.24 -2.95 9.07 1.68 1.35 -1.11 15.67 LAFC
L.A. Galaxy 6.86 1.77 -1.67 -4.4 0.83 2.13 -2.34 2.21 0.46 4.33 1.08 -3.38 0.93 6.86 LAG
Minnesota United FC 15.85 -1.11 2.87 -4.13 3.64 -1.53 0.25 2.58 -0.23 2.06 1.08 0.71 1.14 15.85 MUFC
Montreal Impact 12.24 2.65 2.55 -1.25 -0.85 2.82 0.59 1.28 5.09 -1.02 -0.22 -0.56 -0.65 12.24 MTL
Nashville SC 9.15 1.56 1.85 2.18 -0.82 -2.95 3.18 -0.38 0.06 0.43 1.99 2.89 1.38 9.15 NASH
N.E. Revolution 13.88 4.45 1.43 0.36 -2.41 1.76 -0.24 -0.11 3.32 -1.41 -0.8 1.76 -1.84 13.88 NER
New York City FC 7.92 -0.65 0.78 3.52 0.68 -0.68 4.96 -0.15 -1.15 -2.48 1.66 -1.86 -0.95 7.92 NYFC
New York RB 13.88 1.12 0.59 -1.28 -0.46 2.52 1.34 1.18 1.81 1.95 -0.82 6.12 5.32 13.88 NYRB
Orlando City SC 7.92 -0.29 2.35 5.21 -0.92 -2.85 1.64 0.14 1.64 -2.75 -0.11 0.37 1.08 7.92 ORL
Philadelphia Union 3.86 -0.61 -0.86 3.94 0.22 -0.73 0.92 -0.3 -0.8 -1.94 0.77 1.85 1.74 3.86 PHI
Portland Timbers 7.53 -0.97 2.2 8.8 0.64 -3.53 1.03 -1.28 1.72 4.72 -0.9 -4.39 -1.13 7.53 POR
Real Salt Lake 15.16 -1.41 1.04 1.64 3.34 2.91 0.62 0.65 -1.1 1.17 1.47 0.41 1.04 15.16 RSL
San Jose Earthquakes 17.05 0.01 0.28 8.08 0.62 2.82 -0.27 1.08 2.95 2.78 0.2 -1.62 -4.25 17.05 SJE
Seattle Sounders FC 4.1 -0.79 0.9 -0.17 0.23 3.57 0.23 -0.6 -0.97 1.98 0.34 -1.24 -0.1 4.1 SEA
Sporting Kansas City 7.64 3.74 -0.51 -0.17 1.86 1.83 1.25 0.17 4.74 -0.22 -1.51 -0.21 -0.64 7.64 SKC
Toronto FC 4.42 1.46 -1.55 3.05 -0.75 4.45 -0.75 -1.48 2.58 -0.17 -1.79 -2.42 4.18 4.42 TFC
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 21.04 1.59 2.43 2.36 0.04 3.89 1.4 1.27 3.4 -1.12 -1.23 -2.75 -2.64 21.04 VAN
X Team / Site AVG Sagarin 538 Who Scored ESPN Massey Soc. Amer MLS Sonny Moore Freeborg MLS Multiplex 3rd deg. US Soc. Players AVG Team / Site

Site Accuracy

Just a little table to show how far each site deviated from the week’s average.

2019 MLS Bias (for/vs)

Site Most Bias VS Most Bias For Least Bias
Site Most Bias VS Most Bias For Least Bias
Jeff Sagarin SJE SKC VAN
FiveThirtyEight SJE ATL CLB
Who Scored POR DCU NYFC
ESPN POR NER FCD
Massey NYRB POR NER
Soccer America POR HOU CLB
MLS Soccer DCU COL HOU
MLS Fantasy Boss MUFC SKC DCU
Reddit /r/mls RSL NYRB DCU
Dallas News MTL TFC SEA
ProSoccerUSA NYFC COL SJE
Big D Soccer DCU TFC SKC
AJC NYFC MTL CIN
Cincinnati Soccer Talk POR HOU SJE
Freeborg Power Index NYRB POR ORL
In On It MUFC SKC HOU
US Soccer Players ORL NER ATL
  • Most Accurate: Cincinnati Soccer Talk with 8 exactly on average, and 10 off by 1 (tiebreaker).
  • Least Accurate: In On It with 7 off by 6+.