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MLS Power Ranking Averages - 2020 Final

Final totals for 2020!

By Kreg Asay

10 of 12 sites published for the final week.

As always, if you know of a site I have not used please let me know in the comments and I’ll look into adding it for next season!

A reminder of what Power Rankings should be (not that every site does of course...):

”If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?”

-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used

You may notice the list includes several ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a stable counterbalance or ‘control group’ to the rest which are based more on personal opinions, and those done by ‘group rankers’. There are also sites included that some will argue are ‘prediction rankings’ - but that also is a form of Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top) since it uses algorithms to calculate a team’s likely final position.

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

2022 Power Ranking Average

Place Team Wk 33 Wk 34 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2022 Avg 5-yr avg
Place Team Wk 33 Wk 34 Wk Best Wk Worst Std. Dev 2022 Avg 5-yr avg
21 Atlanta United FC 20.67 20.86 10 25 4.46 17.6 11.0832
5 Austin FC 5.22 6.14 5 17 4.02 7.2 12.992
23 Charlotte FC 20 21.71 16 27 3.61 22.8 14.784
24 Chicago Fire 23.56 22.71 17 24 2.17 20.7 19.678
10 Cincinnati (FC) 11.11 9.57 7 13 1.87 17.5 19.634
18 Colorado Rapids 20.44 18.71 14 22 2.65 16 15.666
12 Columbus Crew SC 8.89 12.71 4 16 3.76 11.3 10.859
28 D.C. United 28 28 28 28 0 24.5 17.176
6 Dallas (FC) 5.89 6.29 4 16 3.82 8.5 11.1342
26 Houston Dynamo 24.56 25.43 24 27 0.88 22 17.22
15 Inter Miami CF 14 15.14 11 21 3.91 21.3 17.622
9 L.A. Galaxy 10.33 8.57 6 12 2.06 9.8 11.408
2 Los Angeles FC 1.56 1.71 1 3 0.67 2 5.5268
11 Minnesota United FC 15.22 12.14 7 17 2.93 11 12.076
3 Montreal (CF) 3 3 2 12 3.06 10.2 14.52
7 Nashville SC 8.11 6.86 4 10 1.96 8.7 11.874
17 New England Revolution 20 18.29 6 23 4.77 14.7 12.164
4 New York City FC 6.33 4.86 3 10 2.11 6.6 6.5156
8 New York RB 7.11 7.29 5 10 1.58 6.4 9.5228
16 Orlando City SC 14.11 15.86 13 23 3.87 13.5 13.312
1 Philadelphia Union 1.44 1.29 1 2 0.5 2.5 6.902
14 Portland Timbers 11.67 14 7 16 2.79 13.8 11.134
13 Real Salt Lake 14.44 13 9 15 1.79 10.8 13.31
25 San Jose Earthquakes 25 24.43 19 26 2.65 23.8 18.838
19 Seattle Sounders FC 19.44 19.43 12 23 3.91 13.9 7.384
22 Sporting Kansas City 20.22 21.14 16 26 3.14 23.5 10.9248
27 Toronto FC 25.67 26.43 20 27 2.54 21.7 14.724
20 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 18.56 20.14 16 25 3.49 22.6 19.364

Site Bias

All sites are going to have bias, whether conscious (blogs) or due to analytic calculation (based on past performance). This section lets you see the extent that sites are biased for/against teams. Negative totals (-) are bias FOR, positive numbers (+) are bias AGAINST.

2020 MLS Site Bias

Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin 538 Who Scored ESPN Massey Soc. Amer MLS Sonny Moore Freeborg MLS Multiplex 3rd deg. US Soc. Players AVG Team / Site
Team / Site AVG Jeff Sagarin 538 Who Scored ESPN Massey Soc. Amer MLS Sonny Moore Freeborg MLS Multiplex 3rd deg. US Soc. Players AVG Team / Site
Atlanta United FC 15.5 -0.5 -0.97 1.57 2.83 1.9 0.28 2.19 -1.87 5.67 1.81 5.64 1.1 15.5 ATL
Chicago Fire 18.66 -0.47 -0.59 -3.66 1.09 1.01 2.9 1.34 4.59 0.26 2.84 3.34 3.94 18.66 CHI
Colorado Rapids 14.04 -0.48 1.83 -5.51 1.04 -0.24 1.74 1.59 4.4 -2.87 3.65 2.25 3.96 14.04 COL
Columbus Crew SC 4.71 4.42 -0.98 0.89 -0.21 0.09 -2.04 -1.08 4.42 1.71 -1.27 1.86 0.29 4.71 CLB
D.C. United 20.48 0.58 3.59 -0.68 0.69 2.32 0.96 3.02 -0.98 2.52 0.21 4.38 1.32 20.48 DCU
FC Cincinnati 22.34 2.72 3.06 1.86 1.99 1.33 -1.45 0.97 1.79 0.41 0.72 -0.91 -0.14 22.34 CIN
FC Dallas 9.94 -1.25 -0.01 -2.94 2.39 0.13 0.62 1.75 -2.94 -0.27 4.44 2.77 5.06 9.94 FCD
Houston Dynamo 17.46 0.79 2.67 0.47 0.29 -2.26 2.21 2.29 -1.77 -0.79 1.79 2.25 -0.06 17.46 HOU
Inter Miami CF 6.51 4.86 -0.02 -0.42 2.36 -0.22 2.55 1.74 -6.89 -2.72 4.24 2.68 2.11 6.51 MIA
Los Angeles FC 15.67 -1.88 -1.98 1.96 2.99 0.89 -0.4 1.24 -2.95 9.07 1.68 1.35 -1.11 15.67 LAFC
L.A. Galaxy 6.86 1.77 -1.67 -4.4 0.83 2.13 -2.34 2.21 0.46 4.33 1.08 -3.38 0.93 6.86 LAG
Minnesota United FC 15.85 -1.11 2.87 -4.13 3.64 -1.53 0.25 2.58 -0.23 2.06 1.08 0.71 1.14 15.85 MUFC
Montreal Impact 12.24 2.65 2.55 -1.25 -0.85 2.82 0.59 1.28 5.09 -1.02 -0.22 -0.56 -0.65 12.24 MTL
Nashville SC 9.15 1.56 1.85 2.18 -0.82 -2.95 3.18 -0.38 0.06 0.43 1.99 2.89 1.38 9.15 NASH
N.E. Revolution 13.88 4.45 1.43 0.36 -2.41 1.76 -0.24 -0.11 3.32 -1.41 -0.8 1.76 -1.84 13.88 NER
New York City FC 7.92 -0.65 0.78 3.52 0.68 -0.68 4.96 -0.15 -1.15 -2.48 1.66 -1.86 -0.95 7.92 NYFC
New York RB 13.88 1.12 0.59 -1.28 -0.46 2.52 1.34 1.18 1.81 1.95 -0.82 6.12 5.32 13.88 NYRB
Orlando City SC 7.92 -0.29 2.35 5.21 -0.92 -2.85 1.64 0.14 1.64 -2.75 -0.11 0.37 1.08 7.92 ORL
Philadelphia Union 3.86 -0.61 -0.86 3.94 0.22 -0.73 0.92 -0.3 -0.8 -1.94 0.77 1.85 1.74 3.86 PHI
Portland Timbers 7.53 -0.97 2.2 8.8 0.64 -3.53 1.03 -1.28 1.72 4.72 -0.9 -4.39 -1.13 7.53 POR
Real Salt Lake 15.16 -1.41 1.04 1.64 3.34 2.91 0.62 0.65 -1.1 1.17 1.47 0.41 1.04 15.16 RSL
San Jose Earthquakes 17.05 0.01 0.28 8.08 0.62 2.82 -0.27 1.08 2.95 2.78 0.2 -1.62 -4.25 17.05 SJE
Seattle Sounders FC 4.1 -0.79 0.9 -0.17 0.23 3.57 0.23 -0.6 -0.97 1.98 0.34 -1.24 -0.1 4.1 SEA
Sporting Kansas City 7.64 3.74 -0.51 -0.17 1.86 1.83 1.25 0.17 4.74 -0.22 -1.51 -0.21 -0.64 7.64 SKC
Toronto FC 4.42 1.46 -1.55 3.05 -0.75 4.45 -0.75 -1.48 2.58 -0.17 -1.79 -2.42 4.18 4.42 TFC
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 21.04 1.59 2.43 2.36 0.04 3.89 1.4 1.27 3.4 -1.12 -1.23 -2.75 -2.64 21.04 VAN
X Team / Site AVG Sagarin 538 Who Scored ESPN Massey Soc. Amer MLS Sonny Moore Freeborg MLS Multiplex 3rd deg. US Soc. Players AVG Team / Site

2020 Final Averages

Annual averages going back to 2012. For teams that started after that date the total average for the league is used to give 5 years of data to level the skew. League averages will be removed each year to keep teams at 5 years.

Yearly Averages

TEAM 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Tot Avg
TEAM 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Tot Avg
Atlanta United FC 10.5 6.46 2.266 7.13 15.5 8.37
Chicago Fire 7.91 14.35 15.54 17.71 18.8 7.95 17.65 18.02 18.66 15.18
Colorado Rapids 12.85 9.88 11.54 17.38 5.25 18.35 20.69 20.18 14.04 14.46
Columbus Crew SC 11.7 12.81 9.6 8.75 16.31 11.27 7.875 16.72 4.71 11.08
D.C. United 7.45 17.24 7.49 5.91 13.91 18.79 16.74 8.1 20.48 12.9
FC Cincinnati 10.5 11.47 11.96 21.21 22.34 15.5
FC Dallas 12.88 8.58 6.35 4.64 2.73 6.07 7.081 10.26 9.94 7.61
Houston Dynamo 6.75 7.71 12.77 13.81 16.44 9.36 12.32 13.53 17.46 12.24
Inter Miami CF 10.5 11.47 11.96 12.5 19.89 13.26
Los Angeles FC 10.5 11.47 5.934 1.27 6.51 7.14
L.A. Galaxy 8.39 5.15 5.23 4.51 3.75 15.74 12.02 8.7 15.67 8.8
Minnesota United FC 10.5 19.71 18.37 10.05 6.86 13.1
Montreal Impact 13.99 5.17 17.54 15.06 7.52 14.48 16 15.22 15.85 13.43
Nashville SC 10.5 11.47 11.96 12.5 17.82 12.85
N.E. Revolution 14.78 12.52 9.66 9.5 15.45 15.29 13.48 17.48 12.24 13.38
New York City FC 15.47 9.42 4.4 4.418 6.3 9.15 8.19
New York RB 5.58 6.52 10.05 4.68 8.11 8.35 3.204 9.54 13.88 7.77
Orlando City SC 14.21 13.1 13.02 18 18 7.92 14.04
Philadelphia Union 15.19 10.45 11.85 18.07 8.66 16.32 13.59 7.09 3.86 11.68
Portland Timbers 15.88 5.83 11.64 9.45 9.78 7.3 9.17 12.09 7.53 9.85
Real Salt Lake 3.7 4.58 4.12 12.43 7.01 17.03 13.43 12.89 15.16 10.04
San Jose Earthquakes 2.61 12.38 15.2 11.14 10.94 14.18 20.14 14.54 17.05 13.13
Seattle Sounders FC 5.07 9.38 2.86 6.07 13.75 7.89 11.83 4.82 4.1 7.31
Sporting Kansas City 3.07 4.48 5.64 6.35 9.12 5.58 5.064 14.32 7.64 6.81
Toronto FC 17.85 16.83 8.97 9.75 6.21 2.13 12.76 11.61 4.42 10.06
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 8.95 10.33 7.98 5.09 13.65 12.59 13 20.96 21.04 12.62

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